A2A. Can the US survive without depending on China products post COVID-19?
Yes, of course the US can ‘survive’ without depending on China products.
A close-to-home example would be the Native Americans. They did ‘survive’, despite the genocide perpetrated by the invading Europeans. Right?
Here’s the fun bit.
The ‘mericans that may not ‘survive’ will the poorer and weaker; meaning approximately 50% of the current US population. These are the folks that are made to live from paycheck-to-paycheck by the rigged American Capitalism system, currently disguised as ‘Freedom’.
Economies-of-scale and systemic efficiencies in China’s supply chain has made the cost-of-life bearable for this group of Americans, up till now.
So, let’s see what happens when this lifeline is jeopardised.
Do you see the tens of thousands of US household queuing up at food banks now? Well, that’s a tiny glimpse of the future.
In the mean time, the powerful and richer folks will still live in their comfy enclave, as their monies move around the world, making more money.
Yes, but it will be hard to break free of our China habit. Things will cost more for a time. We will have inflation. It has been cheaper to hire cheap Chinese labor than to innovate in the USA. With the political risk, virus risk, etc created when buying from China in the end we will save money buying outside of China and making things in the USA. China is making things like ventilators with technology, design, and innovation created in America and Germany. In the last month the USA has begun another level of innovations on design and manufacturing of ventilators, masks, testing, etc and we are making the products in the USA. Let’s hope they does not steal our breakthroughs we are now creating at great expense.
If we stop importing medicines and medical supplies from China we may also reduce the supplies of illegal drugs being imported from China to the USA and Mexico. That would be an added plus.
Harold Creech - 佛罗里达州科利尔县前科学教师（2013-2016）
Yes. But a good living at a low cost? Maybe no.
The US has noticed there are Chinese products everywhere in their daily lives long long ago. Some are worried and hope to make change. So Trump imposed high tax on Chinese products thus triggered the trade war.
But have you ever considered why there are Chinese product everywhere? China’s government forced the US to buy? No, it is the US merchants who decided to buy, because they want to make more money. That is the root reason behind all. The domestic made products are just too expensive to compete.
There are still many other countries can produce the same products, but at a higher price. So, the US could survive, but the ordinary people‘s lives will be even harder: They must spend more on their daily necessities. But their jobs will not come back, they just flow to other countries than China.
Jack Lee - 在中国工作
很久以前，美国就注意到中国产品在他们的日常生活中随处可见。 有些人忧心忡忡，希望做出改变。 因此，特朗普对中国产品征收高额税收，从而引发了贸易战。
但是你有没有想过为什么到处都是中国产品？ 中国强迫美国购买了吗？ 不是，是美国商人决定购买这些产品，因为他们想赚更多的钱。这是所有这一切背后的根本原因。美国国产产品太贵了，无法与之竞争。
Do you know US order thousands of ventilators from China. Brokers paid three times more in US cash to outbid medical equipment that were originally destined to other countries at the airport tarmac and flown them to US? Think about this and you get the answer.
Even prior to Covid19, US consumers cannot survivelive without a single piece of Chinese products. I have read reports of American trying to live without any Chinese products - result: just cannot be done, it hurt their pocket very much.
Remember : Money Talks.
Henry Young 前银行经理(1974年-2008年)
Sure, a problem that took decades to develop, will go away over a couple months.
China is a well-organized powerhouse. They have very competent leadership. And they are the leading manufacturing power in the world. That isn’t likely to change soon.
However, it is VERY likely that companies will not rely entirely on China in the future. They will diversify their supply chains. While this is going to cause some serious strains in the world for a while, it’s a good thing overall.
Americans need to listen and learn things. Trump and the DEMs will not tell you this.
40 million Americans were considered poor before Covid19. This number will rise. Some job which were lost, will not return. Mostly F&B related ones.
A big percentage of Americans cannot afford an additional sudden expenditure of 400$
China, the so hated China gave all Americans the products that they could and couldn’t afford. If US companies in an act of delirium decide to bring their productions, Americans WILL NOT BE ABLE TO AFFORD THEM.
Bob Thornton - 在中国生活
Of course, but then the US would have to put in large tariffs, and that would be counterproductive to the growth of the US economy. This would mean that the standard of living in the US would be lower than it would be otherwise. The question is why is it an issue depending on Chinese products. Why not decouple the US from all products made overseas. The US cutting off China will mean that China will just sell to the rest of the world, and those countries would benefit from this relationship, while the US is left out. Maybe what the US should do is just close its borders to anything made overseas. Do you realize that some minerals mined in China are necessary to modern products.
当然可以，但那样的话，美国将不得不征收高额关税，这将对美国经济的增长产生反作用。 这将意味着美国的生活水平将低于其他国家的生活水平。 问题是，为什么这个问题取决于中国产品。 为什么不把美国与所有海外产品脱钩呢。美国切断与中国的联系，将意味着中国会向世界其他国家出售产品，这些国家将从这种关系中受益，而美国将被排除在外。 也许美国应该做的，就是对任何海外制造的产品关闭边境。但你知道中国开采的一些矿物，对现代产品是必要的原材料吗？
We already are. We are producing ventilators at GM, Ford. Look how quickly we were able to adapt? After this, our companies will come home(Just Like Trump Has Wanted!). We can go back to producing our own goods and exporting them to the rest of the world, like before.
Joel Carlson - 奎斯塔社区学院维修工(1984年至今)
我们已经这样做了。 我们的福特和通用公司正在生产呼吸机。 看看我们适应得有多快？在这之后，我们的公司将会回家(就像特朗普想要的那样！) 我们可以像以前一样，回来生产我们自己的产品，然后出口到世界其他地方。
Of course US can survive. US is still the most powerful country. Without Chinese products, the goods would just be more expensive. Finally, the US citizens rather than Trump have to pay for that cost. Make a comparison, it looks like the US government collects more taxes from their own people. Thus, without China products, Americans would be affected while these politicians would gain benefits.
Garfield Li - 斯图亚特商学院 伊利诺伊理工学院 访问研究学者(2020年至今)
Medicine, car parts, toys, tools, electronics and so much more other stuff we consume is made in China. My cell phone, computer, my medicine, my shoes, my clothes, even my freeking frames for my eye glasses are made in China. We would have to bring all those industries back to the USA and then pay way higher prices for everything. It would take us decades to stop depending on them. But if we had to, I suppose we could do it. But, would we want to??
Frank Matiella 前情报官员（1976年-1992年）
医药、汽车零部件、玩具、工具、电子产品以及其他我们消费的东西都是中国制造的。 我的手机，电脑，药品，鞋子，衣服，甚至我的眼镜框都是中国制造的。 我们把所有这些产业都带回美国，然后将不得不为所有产品花更多的钱。我们需要几十年的时间才能不再依赖它们。但是如果我们必须这么做，我想我们可以做到。但是，我们愿意这样做吗？
Not without a total reorganization of its bankrupt financial system along Glass-Steagall lines and renewed commitment to investment in infrastructure and industry, as opposed to bailing out speculative debts. It will require a complete change in thinking from the Wall Street directed consumer-based society.
Joseph D'Urso - 在纽约市教育部工作
Without a doubt. They have massive agricultural capability and manufacturing capability. There is also massive manufacturing capability in the rest of the world where the USA can buy products from. China is not essential.
Survivalis too big a word for economies and countries - they always survive. Beyond that, why wouldn’t they want to continue buying where things are cheap, e.g. China?
People, not goods, brought the Coronavirus. For all we know, they might have been American travellers. Travel will not be banned in the post-Coronavirus world.
Thomas Shenstone - 伦敦经济和政治学院 经济学硕士(1975年)
If you think that walling yourselves off from China would have avoided the virus, you are mistaken. Studies of the virus in NYC indicate that most of it came from Europe. The virus went to the US, to Europe, to Iran and to South Korea. From some of those countries except Iran it could, and did get to the US. In Canada we think we imported most of our virus from the US. And the virus spread in all these countries before it was detected.
To prevent the arrival of the virus in the US you would have had to wall yourselves off completely from every country in the world, before even detecting the virus.
Yes absolutely! It will take adjustments. It will take bringing back production of many items for domestic consumption. And the shift is already beginning. Corporations are making moves right now to decentralize the supply chain. Our own worst enemy isn't China at the moment, it's the shutdown of our economy. But this too shall pass.
Jay Siders - 化学品运营商(2011年至今)
Without question. It does not rely on Red China's products now, has not ever relied on Red Chins's products, and likely will not ever rely on Red China's products. The question is will Red China survive economic, cultural and political pariahhood in the coming decade.
Long term the US doesn’t need anyone besides North America. Short-term it will be painful.
If the US stopped importing from China overnight, the world economy would collapse. It would make the Great Depression a minor hick-up. The global economy is integrated as never before. The collapse of one big player would collapse all players.
Important to note: the US dollar is the global reserve currency. Much of this debt is owned by the Chinese, the Japanese and by large international pension funds. A collapse of the dollar would mean the pensions of millions of people become virtually worthless.
A collapse of the dollar would cause a chain reaction that would affect every single person in the world except people living off the grid, like “uncontacted” tribes in the Amazon Forest.
As the old adage goes, if you have a small debt with the bank that you can’t pay back, you have a problem. If you have a huge debt with the bank you can’t pay back, the bank has a problem. In the case of US-China relations, China is the bank, the US the customer.
One thing to remember is that much of the goods the US imports from China arent Chinese goods, they’re typically American, or to a lesser degree from South Korea and Taiwan.
Large multinationals like Levi’s, Nike, Apple, and a ton of smaller US companies moved manufacturing to China to save on manufacturing costs. But look at the stuff around your house and look at the MADE IN… See lots from China right? Now look at the brand of the goods, Not China!
So if the US stopped buying goods from China, they would be hurting China’s export as the US is still the largest export market by far, but they would be hurting American companies as well.
In my opinion, that’s not a realistic scenario. What would be, and could happen, is that American companies just find it no longer advantageous to manufacture in China as wages rise and costs increase and move manufacturing to other nations such as Vietnam or India.
We can’t view things in that way. Both US and China are super country, no goverment can cut the bond between them, neither US nor China. If this did happen, there are supposed to have 3rd world war.
China won’t stop buying things from US and US won’t stop buying things from China. The question is at what price. Two countries like seesaw but the bond is solid.
US goverment is based on federals and every 4 years’ election tears apart US in races, color, national recognition. Hope US will not fall apart like the Sovit Union
The US have built their manufacturing operations in China. If The US have stopped buying goods from China, the US companies will suffer the most (not China).
When the US companies don’t make money & dispose their china based plants, the Europeans and local Chinese companies will buy them.
Gert Jan Boer
the US economy would tank but it would only amount to a bit of a speed bump for China.
About 90% of the US retail market is supplied with Chinese goods. A good deal of the factory production is supplied with Chinese made components for final assembly in the US. These operations would be put out of business immediately.
On China’s side, even though the US is China’s largest single customer, they only amount to 18% of China’s total world sales so losing 18% would be inconvenient but not bankrupting. China trades with 124 countries around the world, the US trades with about 75.
Bob MacKenzie 前业主及私营业务经理(1973年-2019年)
The Chinese economy would take a significant hit but they would offset it by increasing sales to other countries and internally. The bigger problem would be in the USA. I don’t think the average person in the USA realises how much they rely on Chinese goods these days. The effect would be devastating on the current USA life style, with their quality of life dropping right off the charts.
The bottom line is it would be bad for them both but probably 10 times worse for the USA than China.
David Annett 嵌入式系统工程师，在中国工作两年后回到新西兰
China has a bunch of reserves. I think in the short term, they’d ramp the One Belt project up faster. That would keep a bunch of folks employed in valuable infrastructure projects. China already has a bunch of industrial robots on order. By 2021, they should be getting in position to compete with the US in areas like the international arms trade. Not having the US as a customer means they don’t have to worry as much about what the US says.
I do not think China will have trouble finding people willing to buy stuff on credit.
First, USA cannot stop buying their goods. Reasons: people have tried living without using any goods made in China but fail. Even Apple was made in China. US companies are also manufacturing products in China
So the scenario you mentioned would not occur.
Henry Young 前银行经理(1974-2008)
Nothing will happen but the focus of trade shifts to africa and other areas. by the way,America owes much money to China.