[2022-12-28]红迪Sino评论区：一些人发声了，然而他们对结果不满意了

Jisoooya
Western liberalism strikes again. These mouth breathers are also now saying China should’ve definitely done a better job at relaxing restrictions as if they themselves over in the west knows how to deal with COVID besides just letting it kill them also, fuck I’m so sick of this shit

西方自由主义再次出击。这些满嘴跑火车的人现在还说“中国绝对应该在放宽限制方面做得更好”，就好像他们西方自己知道如何对付新冠一样，而不是任由病毒杀死他们一样，操，我真受够了这些垃圾

East-Chocolate-6813
Too late now. They protested under western friends influence.
no turning back. Have to swallow the pain and hopefully it’s not them or their love ones who suffer. Toughest is first few weeks to months. After a few months most will have had it and harder to get again. Then things will be close to back to normal
Eventually they had to open up

太迟了，他们在西方朋友的影响下抗议。
没有回头路可言。不得不忍受痛苦，希望受苦的不是他们自己或他们的爱人。最艰难的是开始的几周到几个月。几个月后，大多数人都会被感染，而且很难再次感染。然后一切就会恢复正常。
最终他们不得不放开

Bishop1415
I heard from Mario that this was because the latest waves have not been as deadly??

我听Mario说，这是因为最近的疫情没有那么致命? ？

Serinous
Where are those white paper holding stupid fucktards now?

那些A4傻逼现在在哪里？

thrower_wei -> Serinous
Collecting their NED paychecks

在领他们的薪水

XenosphereWarrior
IIRC, there are some indications that the sub-variants currently circulating in China (BF.7, BQ.1 and XBB) are milder than even the original omicron variant that emerged a year ago. If that's the case, now is a better time than even just 11 months ago when the original omicron was dominant.
Eventually though, people will die because of this, that is unavoidable. Keep in mind that China lost about 50k to 100k a year due to respiratory diseases before 2019, and going forward, I think the number will double that, which is unfortunate, but it would be a lot better than if they had simply let alpha, delta, or even the original omicron rip through the population like in the west.

如果我没记错的话，有迹象表明，目前在中国流行的亚变体(BF.7，BQ.1和 XBB)甚至比一年前出现的原始奥密克戎变异株还要温和。如果是这样的话，现在是个更好的时机，甚至比11个月前最初的奥密克戎占主流的时候更好。
但最终，会有人因此而死，这是不可避免的。请记住，在2019年之前，中国每年因为呼吸道疾病死亡约5万到10万人，我认为这个数字将会翻一番，很不幸，但相比像西方那样简单地让阿尔法、德尔塔、甚至原始的奥密克戎撕裂人口，他们这做法要好得多。

SussyCloud -> XenosphereWarrior
I think THIS was the eventual goal of ZERO COVID in the first place. Not just outright destroying the virus (because that would have been impossible to enforce) but shielding the public while letting the virus run its life course outside of China's borders and weaken itself to the point in which lives aren't threatened anymore, on top of a properly vaccinated populace. Of course, you can't just put a time period on such a strategy.

我认为这就是动态清零的最终目标。不只是直接消灭病毒(因为这是不可能做到的)，还要保护公众，同时让病毒远离中国境内，等待毒性削弱，直到生命（在民众适当接种疫苗的基础上）不再受到其威胁。当然，你不能简单地给这样的策略设定一个时间段。

XenosphereWarrior -> SussyCloud
True. When the UK variant was dominant in early 2021, it would have been devastating had China given up by then. Even during delta in mid to late 2021, we saw countries such as India and Indonesia basically burning corpses on the streets. Also during delta, we saw New Zealand and Australia give up their measures and a lot of people died as a result.
Likewise with early omicron, when the province of Taiwan gave up, it ended up killing 12000 in 6 months (compared with 700 deaths in Shanghai during the same time period).
IIRC, some of the latter variants such as BF.7 and BQ.1 are milder than the original omicron, so hopefully, even though China has started to reduce restrictions, the casualties would not be as bad as they would have been if it was delta, or the original omicron.

没错。2021年初，当英国变种占主流的时候，如果中国在那时放开，那会是毁灭性的。甚至在2021年中后期的德尔塔期间，我们也看到印度和印尼等国家基本上在街头焚烧尸体。同样在德尔塔期间，我们看到新西兰和澳大利亚放弃了他们的防疫措施，很多人因此死亡。
与早期的奥密克戎一样，当台湾省放弃时，它在6个月内杀死了12000人(而同期上海的死亡人数为700人)。
我记得后面的一些变种，如 BF.7和 BQ.1比原始的奥密克戎更温和，所以即使中国已经开始减少限制，伤亡情况也有望不会像在德尔塔和原始奥密克戎放开的时候那般严重。

SussyCloud -> XenosphereWarrior
Likewise with early omicron, when the province of Taiwan gave up, it ended up killing 12000 in 6 months (compared with 700 deaths in Shanghai during the same time period).
IIRC, some of the latter variants such as BF.7 and BQ.1 are milder than the original omicron, so hopefully, even though China has started to reduce restrictions, the casualties would not be as bad as they would have been if it was delta, or the original omicron.
At this point I am not even concerned for the deathrates of these watered down variants of omicron. I am more concerned of the rammifications and complications that come as a result of it. Omicron, as long as people can still get sick because of it (fevers, attack on your immune system, weakness and throat problems), it can prove to be still a killer for already weakened individuals and the medical backlogs it can create. Infected individuals that require medical attention, will in some way or another burden the healthcare system for others that also require that same kind of attention (urgent surgeries, treatments for chronic diseases like cancer or just lifethreatening medical emergencies), especially in large numbers. That is why we still need to be wary of a possible outbreak.
That is not to mention the problems businesses in the west have STILL been experiencing with large numbers of personnel suddenly getting knocked out due to sickness. Because remember, COVID is NOT the flu; someone who gets sick with COVID is out of the game for at least 10 days, as opposed to a few days with the flu. Now, with 1 person getting sick, it is not a real problem. But a whole department getting infected in rapid succession where every person is incapable to do anything for 10 days? Bro, that will incapacitate any kind business. That is why the government needs to stay on top of this, and should anymore A4-holding cockroaches come out of the woodwork again, the police this time should give these hanjians the "AmeriKKKan fREEEEEdumb" treatment and remind them WHO wanted these lockdowns to be striped away.

“与早期的奥密克戎一样，当台湾省放弃时，它在6个月内杀死了12000人(而同期上海的死亡人数为700人)。
我记得后面的一些变种，如 BF.7和 BQ.1比原始的奥密克戎更温和，所以即使中国已经开始减少限制，伤亡情况也有望不会像在德尔塔和原始奥密克戎放开的时候那般严重”
在这一点上，我甚至不关心这些被稀释的奥密克戎变异株的死亡率。我更关心的是由此带来的后果和并发症。奥密克戎，只要人们仍然会因为它而生病(发烧、攻击你的免疫系统、虚弱和喉咙问题)，就可以证明它仍然是虚弱体质的杀手，以及可能造成的医疗挤兑。需要医疗照顾的感染者，会以某种方式或其他方式给其他同样需要医疗照顾的人(紧急手术、癌症等慢性疾病的治疗或威胁生命的紧急医疗事件)带来负担，尤其是在大量的情况下。这就是为什么我们仍然需要对可能的爆发保持警惕。
更不用说西方企业一直在经历的问题，大量员工突然因病而失去工作。因为记住，新冠不是流感，患有新冠的人至少要停工10天，而流感只需几天。现在，一个人生病，这不是一个真正的问题。但是整个部门接二连三地被感染，每个人都有10天无法做任何事情？兄弟，那会让任何商业瘫痪的。这就是为什么政府需要对此保持高度警惕，如果再有A4蟑螂冒出来，警察这次应该给这些汉奸“霉国滋油”式的待遇，并提醒他们，有“谁”会希望解除这些封锁。

Short-Promotion5343
I supposed it was inevitable but perhaps it could have been phased in more gradually. The paramount concern is to minimize deaths, especially among the elderly. If this can be achieved and without the long COVID symptoms, maybe it's worth it.

我觉得这是不可避免的，但也许本可以分阶段逐步实施。当务之急是尽量减少死亡人数，尤其是老年人。如果能够做到，而且没有新冠后遗症，也许这是值得的。

TserriednichHuiGuo
It's to be seen if the current variant will be deadly.
The Chinese government isn't careless remember, they have access to more information than any of us, so there is no way they wouldn't have considered all these possibilities.

目前的变种是否会致命还有待观察。
中国政府并非粗心大意，要记住，他们比我们任何人都能接触到更多的信息，所以他们不可能没有考虑到所有这些可能性。

MeiXue_TianHe -> TserriednichHuiGuo
the thing is, since the government took the stance of "let the people decide", it might depend on how fast infections escalate so there might be a powerful enough movement against it, and reimpose zero-COVID. that'd be the ideal scenario.

问题是，由于政府采取了“让人民决定”的立场，这可能取决于感染升级的速度有多快，以致于有一场足够影响力的运动来反对放开，并重新实施动态清零。这是最理想的情况。

Commie_Bastardo7
The communist party listens to protests, and still manages to be called “authoritarian” by those who have no concept of listening to experts.

中共倾听了反对的声音，但仍然被那些没有“听取专家意见”概念的人称为“威权主义者”。

chairman888
The West leaning agitators for the end of Zero COVID got their way. With the fall of the planet’s last bastion free from COVID, there is a butt-load of regret here, and a lot of anger from regular folks towards those that pushed for an end to Zero Covid.
I’m still negative but that means now wearing an N95 all day at work. The abandonment of mandatory regular testing and reporting means I have no idea if the person next to me is infected or not. No more going out to eat. Half my work team is out sick.

支持放开的亲西方煽动者们，得到了应有的下场。随着地球上最后一座防疫堡垒的倒下，人们充满了后悔，民众对那些推动放开的人非常愤怒。
我还是阴性，但这意味着我现在整天都要戴着N95工作。放弃强制性的定期核酸检测和报告，就意味着我不知道我旁边的人是否被感染。不再出去吃饭了。我的工作团队有一半的人都请病假了。

rockpapertiger -> chairman888
Hang in there, im also in SZ and in the same boat. Used to feel so carefree, now i gotta worry about avoiding COVID so im not bedridden an unable to care for my parents...
trying not to be bitter about this lol

坚持住，我也在深圳，在同一条船上。以前感觉很无忧无虑，现在我要担心新冠感染，否则我会卧床不起，就没法照顾我的父母了...
我正努力不要为此而苦恼 哈哈

Raiju -> chairman888
Westoid here (lol), I am one of the few here who *didn't* wanted to see it come down to this. The thing that still grinds my gears is somehow saving million of lives is terrible policy in people's eyes here on the same level as the horror show the west had.

我是西方的(笑)，我是这里少数几个不想看到事情发展到这个地步的人之一。现在仍然让我恼火的是，不知为何，在这里的人们看来，拯救数百万人的生命是一项糟糕的政策，认为程度和西方的恐怖秀相当。

Taryyrr -> chairman888
Sorry for that. Hope the PRC can pull through without too much suffering

对此感到很遗憾。希望中国能够渡过难关，没有太多的痛苦

wadeboogs -> chairman888
stay healthy my friend

保持健康，我的朋友

towaway791 -> chairman888
i’m guessing that also reflects the sentiment on chinese social media, the regret of stopping zero covid?

我猜这也反映了中国社交平台上的情绪，对放开的遗憾？

Yumewomiteru -> chairman888
Good luck, for perspective what you described is basically what I've been doing in the US since 2020. From what I've heard this variant should only have mild symptoms.

祝你好运，作为对比，你所描述的基本上是我自2020年以来在美国所做的事情。据我所知，这种变种应该只有轻微的症状。

jydsmits -> chairman888
In the past this would have meant no work right? Personally I have covid and I am missing work but Ide personally rather suffer this short time and get rid of this situation than keep prolonging it. I was with a fever for a single day and after that I felt fine. I get what you are saying and also feel the same but I am leaning towards acceptance and want the lockdowns to end and be gone. I think its for the best but again that is somewhat yet to be seen. Why do you say its west leaning agitators that wanted the end of zero covid? Speaking to everyone we have all been sick and frustrated with lockdowns. Here in Shenzhen we have all been wanting and end to zero covid. I don't think it can be said that it was only west leaning agitators. If you live in fear then that is your choice no? there is no reason to not go out other than your own fear of getting the virus. I certainly don't think those thousands of foxconn workers were west leaning agitators.

在过去，这意味着没有工作，对吧？就我个人而言，我得了新冠失去了工作，但我个人宁愿忍受这短暂的时间，摆脱这种情况，也不愿继续拖延下去。我只发了一天烧，之后就感觉好多了。我明白你的意思，我也有同感，但我倾向于接受，希望封控结束消失。我认为这是最好的结果，但这还有待观察。为什么你说亲西方的煽动者想要放开？和所有人聊聊吧，我们都对封控感到厌烦沮丧。在深圳，我们都希望放开。我不认为可以说只是亲西方的煽动者。如果你生活在恐惧中，那是你的选择，不是吗？除了你自己对感染病毒的恐惧之外，没有理由不出去。我当然也不认为那数千名的富士康工人是亲西方的煽动者。

East-Chocolate-6813 -> chairman888
Give it a few months and it’ll be back to normal. This is eugenics in play . Survival of the fittest. Hopefully you and all your love ones will be fine.

再过几个月就会恢复正常了。这就是优生学。适者生存。希望你和你爱的人都能平安无事。

Maciston1 -> chairman888
Everyone getting COVID is inevitable regardless of where you are. It's already a permanent virus. All you can do is prepare by getting vaccinated and prevent by wearing a mask in crowded indoor areas.

不管你身在何处，每个人都不可避免地会感染新冠。它已经是一种永久性的病毒了。你所能做的就是接种疫苗做好准备，并在拥挤的室内区域戴上口罩来预防。

Dizzy-milu-8607
Those idiots have rioted their way to the deaths of thousands of innocent ppl. The police should have just rounded them up and sent them far, far away. The freedom of a few pro US morons doesn't outweigh the health of millions of elderly immunocompromised.

那些傻逼闹事，害死了大量无辜的民众。警察应该把他们都抓起来，该多远就送去多远。少数亲美傻逼的自由，比不上数百万免疫功能受损的老年人的健康。

MeiXue_TianHe
I'm very worried about all that. Remember COVID is still reaping hundreds of casualties daily all around the world, besides long covid, infections... there's nothing innate, only political decisions that can protect China from similar outcome. And since it seems the anti-lockdown people won... fear for the days ahead.

我很担心这一切。要记住，除了新冠后遗症、感染之外，世界各地每天仍然有数百人因新冠伤亡... 没有什么是天生的，只有政治决策才能保护中国不受类似结果的影响。既然支持放开的人似乎赢了... 担心未来的日子。

maomao05
sigh. Stay safe... those dumb white paper movement got what they wanted but China might have also opened a bit too swift.

哎。注意健康... 那些A4傻逼们得到了他们想要的，但中国可能也放开得稍微太快了。

Sandman145
Well at least they're alive to complain.

至少他们还能活着抱怨。

FireSplaas
Honestly I wish we could have zero covid back. So much safer

老实说，我希望我们可以再实施动态清零。这样更安全多了

Penelope742 -> FireSplaas
Here in America they just tell us to die for the economy.

在美国这里，他们只是告诉我们要为经济而死。

ThatCakeThough -> FireSplaas
It might come back.

动态清零可能会回来的。

AsianEiji
Well its bound to happen...... the idea failed once the west failed their part of the eradication of covid. After that it was more a mix of how long can we do this and when is the best time to drop/ease into it.
Just the timing sucks being right around New Years but then again its also the best time due to limited foreign travel to China during xmas and new years period and a very short period of Western New years to chinese new years

哎，必然会放开的... 一旦西方在消灭新冠病毒方面失败了，这个想法就失败了。在那之后，更多的是我们能坚持多长时间，以及什么时候是放开/放松的最佳时机。
只是时机不好，正好在新年前后，但也是最好的时机，因为圣诞节和新年期间到中国的外国旅客有限，而且西方新年距离中国新年的时间很短。

Quality_Fun
i hope the people do the smart thing and get vaccinated.

希望人们理智行事，接种疫苗。

Yumewomiteru
Yes it does seem like basically everyone in China is catching Covid, but the symptoms have been overwhelmingly mild given comments on social media and from talking with relatives. Mostly reported a fever of a couple of days instead of the unending torment we were hearing about in 2020 and 2021.
Instead of a reaction to some measly protests, I believe this has been China's end game all along. To open up when covid mutated into a mild form, and it looks like we got there.

是的，似乎基本上每个中国人都感染了新冠，但从社交平台上的评论和与亲属的交谈来看，症状绝大多数是轻微的。大多数人都称只是几天的发烧，而不是我们在2020年和2021年听到的那种无休止的折磨。
我相信这不是对一些微不足道的抗议而做出的反应，而是中国一直以来的最终目的。当新冠变异成一种轻微的形式时放开，看起来已经到时候了。

XenosphereWarrior -> Yumewomiteru
It has always been the end-game to eventually lift restrictions. Zhong Nanshan said more than a year ago that China can return to normalcy when COVID gets to influenza level in terms of healthcare burden.
A 20-point plan had been released weeks before the protests happen. Relaxations were already coming anyway, even before the western sponsored protests.
This was from a November 15 article:
Among the 20 measures, there are both relaxation and stricter approaches. Relaxation includes restricting the expansions of mass testing, adjustment in categorization of COVID risk areas, abolishment of circuit-breaker of international flight routes and the time of quarantine. Stricter content includes strengthening the building of medical resources, speeding up acceleration of COVID vaccination, speeding up the COVID treatment-related drug reserves, strengthening the protection of key institutions and key populations.
So as we can see, the plan has been to improve ICU beds, increase vaccination and therapeutic, and relax quarantines and mass testing. These were all announced before any of the protests happened.

最终取消限制一直是最终目的。钟南山一年多前就表示，当新冠在医疗负担方面达到流感水平时，中国就可以恢复正常。
在抗议活动发生的前几周，一份包含20项内容的计划就已经发布了。无论如何，在西方赞助的抗议活动发生之前，放松政策就已经开始了。
这是摘自11月15日的一篇文章：
在这20项措施中，既有放宽也有更严格。放宽措施包括限制大规模的核酸检测、调整新冠风险区域的分类、取消国际航线熔断和调整隔离时间。更严格的内容包括加强医疗资源建设、加快新冠疫苗接种、加快新冠治疗相关药物储备、加强对重点机构和重点人群的保护。
因此，我们可以看到，该计划是旨在改善重症监护病房的床位，增加疫苗接种和治疗，并放松隔离和大规模核酸检测。这些都是在任何抗议活动发生之前宣布的。

Short-Promotion5343 -> Yumewomiteru
Yours is a voice of reason. My wife in Chengdu said there are two main variants of omicron. The Guangzhou variant is much milder than the Beijing one. But even in Beijing only a handful of very elderly people have died. One recent case in Chengdu which has gained widespread coverage is the death of a young person after contracting COVID. In his case he had an underlying heart condition which became overstressed from COVID. Very low death rates is what is needed to see China get through this pandemic with a soft landing.

你很理性。我在成都的妻子说，奥密克戎有两种主要的变体。在广州的变体要比北京的温和得多。但即使在北京，也只有少数高龄老人死亡。最近在成都发生的一起病例被广泛地报道，是一名年轻人在感染新冠后死亡。他的情况是心脏有潜在病因，因新冠而压力过大。非常低的死亡率是中国软着陆度过这场大流行所必需的。

xzy65535
It is getting harder and harder to contain the virus, especially with the loosening of quarantine requirement of overseas entry and strain on government budgets.

控制病毒的难度越来越大，特别是随着海外入境隔离要求的放宽和政府预算的紧张。

DynasLight
With the total defeat of the rest of the world to the COVID pathogen, China was only delaying the inevitable. A delay that was worthwhile. It bought vaccines, increased doctors per population, and more ICU beds.
There will be deaths. There will have always been deaths. But the deaths you have seen today, and will continue to see in the coming months, will be the proportionally smallest amount any nation could produce.
But, there will be deaths. COVID-19 will claim many in China. That is inevitable.
"The nation has protected you for 3 years. Now, it is up to you." - Top social media post on Chinese netspace, December 2022

随着世界其它地区被新冠完全击败，中国只是在推迟无法避免的事情。这样的推迟是值得的。买到了疫苗、增加了人均医生数量，以及增加了重症监护病房的床位。
会有人死去。总会有人死去。但是，你们今天看到的死亡人数，以及未来几个月将继续看到的死亡人数，放在任何国家来看，都是最低比例的死亡人数。
但是，会有人死去，新冠会在中国夺走很多人的生命，这是不可避免的。
“国家保护了你们三年。现在，就看你们的了。”—— 2022年12月，中国网络社交平台上的热门帖子

Quality_Fun -> DynasLight
covid deaths won't dramatically increase the existing annual deaths in china, and many deaths from covid are due to comorbidities.

新冠死亡并不会大幅增加中国现有的年度死亡人数，而且许多死于新冠的人都是合并症引起的。

chairman888 -> Quality_Fun
Let’s hope you’re right

希望你是对的

DynasLight -> Quality_Fun
I know. But with China's population size, even a small proportional increase will lead to shocking absolute numbers to people conditioned with Western population sizes (which would include most English-speaking people who could read my comment).

我知道。但是考虑到中国的人口规模，即使是很小的比例增长，对于那些局限于西方人口的人来说（包括大多数能读懂我评论的英语人士），也会产生让人震惊的绝对数字。

skyanvil
A lot of people have already just recovered from Covid in the last week, and they are headed out to shops and malls.
Shanghai is reaching past 50% infection rate, other cities are much more.
But from the anecdotal reports, it seems the hospitalization and death rate are not as high as initially expected.

上周，许多人从新冠恢复过来了，他们纷纷前往商店和购物中心。
上海的感染率已经超过了50%，其他城市的感染率更高。
但从传闻来看，住院率和死亡率似乎没有最初预期的那么高。

JamES_5373
I suggest people to not view this issue in a linear manner too much, Keep in mind that the severity rate is still low and the difficulty in treating mild cases will be resolved in months

我建议人们不要过于线性地看待这个问题，请记住，重症率仍然很低，轻症治疗的困难将在几个月内得到解决

whimsypunch
Now we all know when is best time for China in the post-COVID era: the 2021.
In the whole year of 2021, Due to the highly effective zero-COVID policy, I never experience a signal quarantine event. I can go to restaurants, theaters and any other public places without worrying about getting infected.
But now all the good old days end forever, I have to suppress most unnecessary needs to minimize my chance of getting infected, and spend much more money on personal/household protection equipment. Colleagues are getting sick in waves and inevitably drag down productivity.
I know many fellows has been experiencing such difficulties for long. And It seem I can't escape from it from now on.

现在我们都知道了，中国在后疫情时代的最好时光是什么时候：2021年。
在整个2021年，由于高效的动态清零政策，我从来没有经历一次隔离。我可以去餐馆，电影院和任何其他公共场所而不用担心被感染。
但是现在所有的美好时光永远结束了，我不得不抑制大多数不必要的需求，以尽量减少我被感染的机会，并花费更多的钱在个人/家庭防护设备上。同事们一波接一波地生病，不可避免地拖累了工作效率。
我知道很多人长期以来一直经历着这样的困难。从现在开始，我似乎也得面对了。

__Tenat__ -> whimsypunch
I'm out of the loop. But why is this happening? Why did China relax their covid policies?

我是局外人。但为什么会这样呢？为什么中国放松了他们的防疫政策？

whimsypunch -> __Tenat__
I believe people will have different stories about it. Honestly the story is too complicated for me, so it's almost impossible to tell an unbiased story.
Any large scale public health measures relies on some sort of consensus. And judging from the current result, the consensus to maintain zero-COVID policy has broken down.

我相信人们会有不同的叙事。老实说，这叙事对我来说太复杂了，所以几乎不可能讲一个没有偏见的叙事。
任何大规模的公共卫生措施都要依赖某种共识。而从目前的结果来看，维持动态清零的共识已经破裂了。

__Tenat__ -> whimsypunch
I don't follow China's policies close enough so I didn't expect them to relax it either. Are the 1 million expected deaths accurate? I didn't expect China to be okay with that.

我没有密切关注中国的政策，所以我也没有想到他们会放松。预计一百万的死亡人数准确吗？我没想到中国会对此没有问题。

whimsypunch -> __Tenat__
Yes. The world is material. Either you contain the pandemic, or let it sweep. We have to prepare for a sustained war against the virus.
The mortality of COVID is proven world wide. So people don't even need any sophisticated calculation to estimate the scale of pandemic. Science gives much more details, but common sense will not give the wrong scale.

是的。世界是物质的。你要么控制疫情，要么任其蔓延。我们必须为对抗病毒的持续战争做好准备。
新冠的死亡率已经在全世界范围内得到证实。所以人们甚至不需要任何复杂的计算就能估算疫情的规模。科学给出了更多的细节，但常识不会给出错误的规模。

XenosphereWarrior -> __Tenat__
China was always going to relax the restrictions. It has been announced in the 20 point plan more than a month ago, before all the protests happened. It's never a question of if.
The better question would be, why now? I believe if they had opened up just 10 or 11 months ago, the casualties would be far greater, because the earlier omicron sub-variants are deadlier than the current ones circulating in China.
The original omicron (BA.1) was milder than delta and the UK variant, and the current strains (BF.7 and BA.5.2) are likely milder still than the original omicron.
One thing is for sure: opening up now is better than opening a year ago. We will see how it will be going forward.

中国总有一天会放宽限制的。一个多月前，在所有抗议活动发生之前，20条就已经宣布了这一点。这从来就不是一个如果的问题。
更好的问题是，为什么是现在？我相信如果他们在10/11个月之前放开，伤亡会更大的，因为早期的奥密克戎毒株比目前在中国流行的子变体更加致命。
原始的奥密克戎(BA.1)比德尔塔和英国变种更加温和，而现在的毒株(BF.7和BA.5.2)可能比原始的奥密克戎更温和。
有一件事是肯定的：现在放开比一年前放开要好。对于未来的展开，我们将拭目以待。

__Tenat__ -> XenosphereWarrior
Why not later? And is the estimate of about 1 million expected deaths accurate?

为什么不晚一点呢？大约有一百万人死亡的估计是准确的吗？

XenosphereWarrior -> __Tenat__
Even if all 1.5 billion people caught the latter omicron variants of COVID (such as BF.7 or BA.5.2), there would likely still be fewer than 1 million COVID excess deaths.
With delta/UK variant, it would have been close to 10 million, and with early omicron, maybe around 1.5 to 2 million. I think a more realistic figure would be in the range of 150k to 200k, or about double the usual influenza toll in China before COVID.
Why not later?
Ideally, I agree that the later the better. But in the end, the plan had already been in motion for months, and the 20-point plan was released in mid November to relax quarantine and mass testing, while improving ICU beds, therapeutics and vaccination.
Among the 20 measures, there are both relaxation and stricter approaches. Relaxation includes restricting the expansions of mass testing, adjustment in categorization of COVID risk areas, abolishment of circuit-breaker of international flight routes and the time of quarantine. Stricter content includes strengthening the building of medical resources, speeding up acceleration of COVID vaccination, speeding up the COVID treatment-related drug reserves, strengthening the protection of key institutions and key populations.
Keep in mind that China has not been simply lying idle for the past three years. ICU beds went from 4.5 per 100,000 population in late 2020 to more than 9.5 per 100,000 population as of last months. Those are the types of numbers that are higher than a lot of developed economies such as Scandinavia, NZ, UK, Australia, Portugal, Ireland, etc. Tens of millions of elderly have been vaccinated between mid of this year to now.
And the latter omicron sub-variant seems to be milder than the original omicron variant, which was already milder than the UK variant. So all in all, now is the better time to reopen than even a few months ago.
I agree that they could have probably waited another few months, but they had decided that the time is now.

即使所有15亿人都感染了后一种奥密克戎变体(如BF.7或BA.5.2)，新冠的超额死亡可能仍然不到一百万。
如果是德尔塔/英国变体，这个数字将接近一千万，如果是早期的奥密克戎，这个数字可能在150万到200万之间。我认为更现实的数字应该是在15万到20万之间，或者是新冠之前中国通常流感死亡人数的两倍。
为什么不晚点呢？
理想情况下，我同意越晚越好。但最终，该计划已经实施了几个月，11月中旬发布了20条措施，以放松隔离和大规模核酸检测，同时改善ICU病床、治疗和疫苗接种。
在这20条措施中，既有放宽也有更严格。放宽措施包括限制大规模的核酸检测、调整新冠风险区域的分类、取消国际航线熔断和调整隔离时间。更严格的内容包括加强医疗资源建设、加快新冠疫苗接种、加快新冠治疗相关药物储备、加强对重点机构和重点人群的保护。
请记住，中国在过去三年里，并非无所事事。ICU 病床从2020年末的每10万人4.5张，增加到上个月的每10万人9.5张以上。这些数字高于许多发达经济体，如斯堪的纳维亚、新西兰、英国、澳大利亚、葡萄牙、爱尔兰等。从今年年中到现在，已有数千万老年人接种了疫苗。
而后一种奥密克戎子变体似乎比最初的奥密克戎变体更加温和，而后者已经比英国变体更温和了。因此，总而言之，现在是比几个月前更好的重新放开的时机。
我同意他们也许还可以再等几个月，但他们已经决定现在就是时候了。

Short-Promotion5343
The recent report of the mass COVID dying in Beijing by the Western press is reminiscent by the same press of the huge number of deaths reported in Wuhan at the onset of the pandemic three years ago. The Wuhan mortality was greatly exaggerated and so will it be for Beijing. Time will disclose that the Chinese authorities made the correct decision about COVID control, much to the dismay of the Western haters. China's action will lead to a soft landing from COVID and China will be the first to country to successfully emerge from the pandemic intact. COVID won't go away and many are getting sick, but the temporary pain is the only way achieve this.

西方媒体最近关于北京大规模新冠死亡的报道，让人想起了武汉三年前疫情爆发时大量死亡的报道。武汉的死亡率被严重夸大了，北京也将如此。时间会证明，中国当局在新冠控制方面，做出了正确的决定，这让西方仇恨者非常沮丧。中国的行动会实现疫情的软着陆，中国将成为第一个成功走出疫情的国家。新冠病毒不会消失，许多人正在生病，但暂时的疼痛是实现这一目标的唯一途径。

TheCriticalAmerican
Western propagandists are desperate. The schadenfreude is palpable. For them, China's recent "rollbacks" bring back memories of the initial Wuhan wave, and they hope failed COVID-19 fights in their own countries will be repeated in China, which they seek to enjoy.
Omicron is not Delta. It’s a distant cousin of COVID OG. You don’t need ventilators, people aren’t dying of pneumonia. I look at my WeChat and everyone is sick. But, people are staying inside and medicating.
I’m sure some people are dying. That is true. But let’s be honest, the recent reports say 500,000 to maybe 1,000,000 people will die. Let’s grant that assumption. That’s the same total death count as the US with 4x the population. But yet, somehow it is China that failed to minimize excess deaths.

西方的宣传人员已经绝望了。这种幸灾乐祸是可想而知的。对他们来说，中国最近的“倒退”让他们想起了最初在武汉的疫情，他们希望自己国家失败的新冠措施能够在中国重演，从而享受这个过程。
奥密克戎不是德尔塔。是新冠原始毒株的远房表亲。你不需要呼吸机，人们不会死于肺炎。我在微信上看到，大家都生病了。但是，人们都待在家里吃药。
我可以肯定会有人死亡。这是真的。但说实话，最近的报道说50万到100万人将会死亡。让我们承认一下这个假设。即使这样，4倍于美国的人口，总死亡人数与美国相同。然而，不知何故，中国未能将超额死亡人数降至最低。

RollObvious
I have questions.
An economist article states that the level of protection against death and severe disease offered by Sinovac is similar to that offered by Pfizer after 3 shots (How China’s Sinovac compares with BioNTech’s mRNA vaccine https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/04/19/how-chinas-sinovac-compares-with-biontechs-mrna-vaccine). Given that 90% of the population has had two shots and 55% has had three, with a huge effort being exerted to vaccinate the vulnerable, I suspect the estimated 1 million deaths is exaggerated. Omicron is also relatively mild. Are there better estimates?
Also, my intuition tells me there are good reasons for the government refusing Western mRNA vaccines. Maybe Pfizer is trying to fleece them, I don't know. But the Cuban vaccine is almost as good. And it would really be a stick in the eye to Western imperialists for China to refuse Pfizer/Moderna and instead accept the Cuban vaccine. I don't think Cuba has the manufacturing capacity to produce the vaccines China needs, but it can license out the IP for it. Any idea why this didn't happen?

我有一些疑问。
《经济学人》的一篇文章指出，科兴公司提供的针对死亡和重症化的保护水平，与辉瑞公司打完3针后提供的保护水平相似。鉴于90%的人口已经接种过两次疫苗，55%的人口已经接种过三次，并正在努力为弱势群体接种疫苗，我认为估计的一百万的死亡人数被夸大了。奥密克戎也相对温和。有没有更好的估计？
而且，我的直觉告诉我，政府拒绝西方的mRNA疫苗是有充分理由的。也许辉瑞公司想敲诈他们，我不知道。但古巴的疫苗几乎一样好。如果中国拒绝辉瑞公司/摩代纳公司，转而接受古巴疫苗，那真的是对西方帝国主义者的当头一棒。我不认为古巴有能力生产中国需要的疫苗，但是它可以将其知识产权授权出去。有谁知道为什么没有这样做吗？

XenosphereWarrior -> RollObvious
Even if the entirety of the Chinese population of 1.5 billion people caught this latter omicron sub-variant, there would still be fewer than 1 million COVID deaths, given that these sub-variants have death rates around 1 in 3000 or even less.

即使全部15亿中国人都感染了后一种奥密克戎变体，新冠死亡人数仍将少于一百万，因为这些子变体的死亡率大约是1/3000甚至更低。

AsianEiji -> RollObvious
Well Pfizer didn't release its clinical trials papers "willingly", and they still are going though the documents that they released, being there is no abridged version of it yet.
That in itself is enough to ban it until they can get their hands on the abridged documents. Health officials that do their job SHOULD be reading all the clinical data and studies that is readable before purchasing millions of vaccines that will then be used upon their own people using tax money, and in its current format it isnt readable.
Sadly China would had been already fully vacc'ed by the time Pfizer produces the paperwork.. and the original 55-75 years that Pfizer wanted was stupid...... my opinion is pfizer dropped the ball on this.

辉瑞公司并没有“自愿”地公布其临床试验文件，而且还没有拿到节略本，他们仍在检查他们所公布的文件。
这本身就足以拒绝它了，直到他们能够拿到节略文件。做好本职工作的卫生官员应该在用税款购买数以百万计的疫苗之前，阅读所有可读的临床数据和研究报告，然后把这些疫苗用于他们自己的人民身上。而以目前的格式，文件不是可读的。
不幸的是，到辉瑞公司出具文件的时候，中国早就打好疫苗了... 而辉瑞最初希望55-75年才公布，真蠢...... 我的看法是，辉瑞公司在这件事上搞砸了。

quapha5
If this was the original covid, it would be scary, but this omicron variant is a lot less deadlier and much more transmissible. The number of cases will be high, but the deaths will be much less than what western propaganda says.

如果这是原始的新冠病毒，那就很可怕了，但这种奥密克戎变异株的致命性要小得多，而传染性更强。虽然病例数量会很高，但死亡人数会远低于西方宣传所说的。