蓝林网 > 国际社会 > 正文


文章原始标题:Will China disintegrate if it fails in the trade war against the USA?

内容简介:我们不喜欢他们的政府系统,这就是我们的感情。在中华人民共和国的人民仍然喜欢他们的领导,现在的中国比50年前更繁荣。 他们生活在持续改善的环境中,每个人都有机会变得富有。

Andreas Mihardja , PhD from Georg-August University of Göttingen (1969)
Guys just be real and not emotional. We don’t like their government system that is our spirit. The Chinese people in the PRC still like their leadership and are now compared to 50 years ago prosperous. They have been living in an improved environment and every person has the opportunity to be “wealthy”
China has been living under isolation for a very long time and they survived while their population has grown from 500 Million in 1950 to now 1.4 billion. Before when they only have 500 million there was not enough food and clothing. Now with 1.3 billion they are the No. 2 in the world. Just be real what nation will hate their leadership that brought from nothing to world richness in only less than half a century. Many of their citizens, that have had the experience with those stupid policies during Mao, have survived and they have survived when they were isolated from the rest of the world. There are even a generation of people that had to walk from Shanghai to Chungking during the Japanese invasion. They could tell you the real meaning of suffering. Only 2 in 10 survived.
Answering your question: They will not disintegrate at all, but could even be hardened in their opinion because of the Western pressure.

Andreas Mihardja ,哥廷根大学博士(1969)
大家看事情要理性,不要感情用事。 我们不喜欢他们的政府系统,这就是我们的感情。在中华人民共和国的人民仍然喜欢他们的领导,现在的中国比50年前更繁荣。 他们生活在持续改善的环境中,每个人都有机会变得富有。
中国长期处于与世隔绝的状态,人口从1950年的5亿增长到现在的14亿。以前他们只有5亿人口,却没有足够的食物和衣服。 然而现在他们有13亿人口,实力是世界第二。说实话,哪个国家会憎恨他们的领导人呢? 他们的领导人在不到半个世纪的时间里从一无所有变成了世界的经济中心。 这些国家的许多公民,都经历过以前时期的那些愚蠢政策,他们幸存了下来。 在日本侵华期间,甚至有一代人不得不从上海步行到重庆。 他们可以告诉你痛苦的真正含义。 只有十分之二的人活了下来。
回答你的问题: 他们根本不会解体,但由于西方的压力,他们的信念甚至可能变得更坚定。

Yi Tang , lives in Shanghai
This is another funny question, which makes me want to reply. :)
In 1980s, Mr. Deng Xiaoping once answered to the doubt that Open Door Policy will destroy the country.
"There are those who say we should not open our windows, because open windows let in flies and other insects," he remarked in October. "They want the windows to stay closed, so we all expire from lack of air. But we say, 'Open the windows, breathe the fresh air and at the same time fight the flies and insects.'"
So, in spite of the large noise made by Trump regarding the current Trade War, to Chinese and China Leadership, it is merely just the flies and insects, and not even the most dangerous ones in the recent 40 years.
Being historically a self-reliance country, China has no issue to sustain itself without much of foreign Trade (Considering 1949–1978 period). Not to mention, China now is the only nation in the world has the full set of all the industry sectors. In the very extreme case, China just completely shut down the foreign trade, and still can sustain its economy for a long period of time. China just past USA as the largest consumer market in the world in 2019. China to surpass US as world's biggest consumer market this year.

Yi Tang ,住在上海
这是又一个有趣的问题,让我想回答了。 :)
“有些人说我们不应该打开窗户,因为开着的窗户会让苍蝇和其他害虫进来,”他在10月份说。 “他们希望窗户一直关着,所以我们都会因为缺氧而死。但我们会说,‘打开窗户,呼吸新鲜空气,同时除掉那些苍蝇和害虫。”'

Open Door Policy definitely helps the industrialization of Modern China, and makes China ever stronger. Now, China is the world 2nd largest Economy, and The largest Economy in PPP term. If anyone thinks the current trade war will destroy China, the answer is NO.
The trade war will, at most, slow down the progress of China Economical Development. But, no way, it can lead to dis-integration of the country. You won’t find the trade war a strong external force to crush the country from outside. Nor it will lead to any internal conflict. (in contradiction, it helped the nation been more cohesive) During the entire Trade war period, Chinese Government played a really low key, only called it “Trade Dispute”, rather than “Trade War”, because in such a situation, the nationalism towards hatred of USA and American Products will heat up fair easily and quickly.

对外开放政策有利于近代中国的工业化,使中国更加强大。 目前,中国是世界第二大经济体,按购买力平价计算是世界上最大的经济体。 如果有人认为当前的贸易战会摧毁中国,答案是否定的。
贸易战最多只会减缓中国经济发展的步伐。 但是,这绝不会导致国家的分裂。贸易战是一个强大的外部力量,但你不会看到它从外部摧毁这个国家,也不会看到它导致任何内部冲突。在整个贸易战期间,中国政府采取了非常低调的态度,只是称之为“贸易摩擦” ,而不是“贸易战” ,因为在这种情况下,仇视美国和美国产品的民族主义很容易迅速升温。

The shift in consumer preference towards USA brand products are almost surely negative. While China consumer market is still booming, the market share of USA Brand in China will almost definitely go south, and Other foreign brands and domestic brands are quickly filled the gaps. The downward pressure on profits of USA companies will be surely reflected in their annual reports, as well as share prices. Interestingly enough, very little coverage on this front. We are talking about $3–500B worth of Market Revenue.
And I also believe the China government has a grand plan in place, therefore not to fuel the Anti-America sentiments for a greater cause. You can compare it with Diaoyu Island incident with Japan, just a few years back. We will see how it goes in the long run.
On the other hand, Trump really needs a trade deal to help him on winning the 2nd term. So, it’s funny to see how chilly Trump once claimed the Trade War is easy to win, and later, desperately yelled and announced the punishments to China, and how China will suffer and beg for a deal, over and over again. While China just stayed low key to counter each of the punishment, and see no rush to get a deal. Remember, a barking dog never bites. 会叫的狗不咬人。

消费者对美国品牌产品的偏好几乎肯定是负面的。 虽然中国消费市场仍在蓬勃发展,但美国品牌在中国的市场份额几乎能肯定会下降,其他国外品牌和国内品牌会迅速填补这一空白。 美国公司利润下降的压力肯定会反映在他们的年度报告,以及股价。有趣的是,这方面的报道很少。 我们谈论的是价值3到5000亿美元的市场收入。
我也相信中国政府有一个宏伟的计划,因此不会为了一个更伟大的事业而煽动反美的情绪。 你可以拿几年前的钓鱼岛事件和日本相比。 我们将拭目以待它的长期发展。
另一方面,特朗普确实需要一个贸易协定来帮助他赢得第二个任期。 所以,有趣的是,特朗普曾经声称贸易战很容易打赢,后来又绝望地大喊大叫,宣布对中国的惩罚,称中国将如何一次又一次地遭受痛苦,乞求和美国达成协议。 而中国只是保持低调,冷静应对各种惩罚,并不急于达成协议。 记住,“会叫的狗不咬人”.

In term of winning or losing, just look at the trade deficit between the 2 countries now. After the trade war started, the trade deficit between USA and China even grew larger. So, who is actually losing the trade war? Maybe US farmers can tell the brutal truth more clearer. USA is not winning the trade war by selling less Soybean at a much lower price. Farm states slammed by double whammy of US-China trade war and immigration woes
In General, Both China and USA lost during the trade war. The benefit goes to some other countries. But neither China or USA will be dis-integrated, as a result of trade war. Especially for China, when the overall trade volume still growing, and enjoy the large trade surplus each month. China Balance of Trade. You just can’t find a logic for a country to be disintegrated under this kind of situation.
While China is trying to open the door even wider, USA is trying to close the door. If Trump wanted to keep the flies and insects out of USA, maybe he should listen to Mr. Deng’s old advice first.

无论输赢,只要看看现在两国之间的贸易逆差就知道了。 贸易战爆发后,中美贸易逆差进一步扩大。 那么,到底是谁在输掉这场贸易战呢? 也许美国农民可以更清楚地说出残酷的事实。 美国以低得多的价格卖出更少的大豆并不能赢得这场贸易战。 美中贸易战和移民困境给农业州带来双重打击。
总的来说,中国和美国在贸易战中都失败了。这样的好处也流向了其他一些国家。 但是中国和美国都不会因为贸易战而分裂。 特别是对于中国来说,在总体贸易额仍在增长的时候,每个月都享受着巨大的贸易顺差。在这种情况下,你根本找不到一个国家会解体的逻辑。
当中国试图把大门打开得更大时,美国却试图关上大门。 如果特朗普想把苍蝇和害虫赶出美国,也许他应该先听听邓先生的老人言。

Rob Jamieson
Probably not, but it certainly is having an impact. The US-China trade war continues to accelerate. America has put 25% tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports, and is slated to add an additional 10% tariff on the remaining $300 billion.
China is in the middle of transitioning from an export-driven economy to one with greater reliance on domestic demand. It is also trying to move up the value chain towards more value-added products that allow higher wages. This is a delicate balancing act at the best of times and these are not the best of times.
The jury is out on whether China can pull this off. If it can’t, it’s leaders will look around for something to distract its citizens.

Rob Jamieson
也许不会,但它确实产生了影响。 美中贸易战继续升温。美国对价值2500亿美元的中国进口商品征收25% 的关税,并计划对剩余的3000亿美元增加10% 的关税。
中国正处于从出口驱动型经济,向更加依赖内需型经济的转型过程中。 它还试图向价值链上游移动,生产附加值更高的产品,从而提高工资水平。在最理想的时候,这是一个微妙的平衡行为,然而现在并不是最理想的时候。中国能否实现这一目标尚无定论。 如果不能,它的领导人会四处寻找一些东西来分散其公民的注意力。

Ron Hipfner , studied Computer Science at University of Waterloo Faculty of Mathematics
China is not equipped for a world war and has zero interest in one. They play the long game and will wait out the USA, deploying their global investment strategy with willing host countries. They use economic power rather than military.
Trump’s tirades push more countries away from the USA influence orbit. He’s destroyed the diplomatic corp and undermines professionals, appointing more light-weights as ambassadors. Fighting with allies like Germany, France and Canada on Twitter is unconscionable.
The USA is ceding power to China and that is unlikely to be reversed in our lifetime.

Ron Hipfner 滑铁卢大学数学系计算机科学专业
中国不具备打一场世界大战的能力,对世界大战也毫无兴趣。 他们会放长线钓大鱼,等待美国的到来,与有意愿的东道国一起部署他们的全球投资战略。 他们使用的是经济力量而不是军事力量。
特朗普的长篇大论迫使更多国家远离美国。 他破坏了外交团体,削弱了专业人士的地位,任命了更多的不重要人物担任大使。 在推特上与德国、法国和加拿大等盟友发生冲突很不合理。

Nick Nielsen , Electronics and Computer Tech (1975-present)
No. China has existed since 221 B.C. Very few other nations (almost none of them in the “west”) have that long a history. One thing China has learned over those millenia is patience. China won’t even blink.
China will continue to change where it purchases its commodities until it has moved as many of those purchases as possible out of the United States. At that point, the United States may be fvcked, because all of these companies have plants or contracts in China. For some of those companies (Apple, for instance), China is the only country where their products are manufactured. Ready to pay over $1,000 for an iPhone?

Nick Nielsen 、电子与计算机技术(1975年至今)
不会。 中国从公元前221年就存在了,很少有其他国家(“西方”几乎没有这样的国家)有如此悠久的历史。 几千年来,中国学到的一件事就是耐心。中国连眼睛都不会眨一下。
中国将继续改变购买大宗商品的地区,直到它把尽可能多的交易转移出美国。到那时,美国可能会感到震惊,因为所有这些公司都在中国有工厂或合同。对于其中一些公司(例如苹果公司)来说,中国是他们产品唯一的生产国。 准备好花1000美元买一部 iPhone 了吗?

Allen Allington , former Career Counselor and 50 years of world traveling.
Heck no
The USA needs China more than China needs us… not a lot more but thanks to low wage Chinese workers and the high quality products they produce we have one of the lowest “cost of living” in this world.. if Trump succeeds you can kiss that goodbye
China has been preparing for such an event for a few years. China has signed 40 new trade agreements in five years with countries we sanction to countries we trade with and even some of our neighbors.
China will suffer but the Chinese people know the cause of their pain will be Trump and a few US politicians who want to stop China’s progress and prosperity..

Allen Allington 曾任职业顾问,五十年环球旅行经验。
中国为这样的事件已经准备了好几年。 在过去的五年里,中国与我们对外贸易的国家,甚至是我们的一些邻国,签署了40个新的贸易协定。

Linguo LI , Entrepreneur at Startups (2016-present)
Thanks frank.
Quite the opposite, China will be more united, if there is an external bullying.

Linguo LI 、创业企业家(2016年至今)

Ray Comeau , A decade in China, interest in geopolitics
Thanks for request
First of all the trade war is not that huge for China. US trade accounts for less than 20% of total trade volume and less then 5 months of growth. Meaning if tomorrow China did $0 exports to the US, it would simply amount to no new growth for 4–5 months for 2019.
However there will be a trade agreement signed eventually, maybe in 2019 or 2020. China has the benefit of time on its side.

Ray Comeau 在中国十年,对地缘政治感兴趣
首先,这场贸易战对中国来说并没有那么大。 美国的贸易额不到总贸易额的20% ,增长时间不到5个月。 这意味着,如果明天中国对美国的出口额为0美元,那么在2019年的4至5个月内将不会出现新的增长。
然而,最终还是会签署一项贸易协定,也许是在2019年或2020年。 中国有时间的优势。

James Baggs , Wyoming Corp Business Consultant: Pay Less Tax at Asset Mgmt Services
If they do not change their ways and stop taking advantage of us as they have for approximately 25 years, they will be hurt very badly. They can not survive without trading with the USA, and President Trump is very well aware of this. They are bluffing and trying to keep the tariffs on their goods as low as possible, but in the end, Trump will get what he wants.

James Baggs 美国怀俄明州商业顾问
如果他们不改变他们的方式,还像25年前那样利用我们,他们将受到非常严重的伤害。他们不与美国进行贸易就无法生存,特朗普总统非常清楚这一点。 他们在虚张声势,试图尽可能地降低本国商品的关税,但最终,特朗普会得到他想要的东西。

Ares Chen , Marketing (2007-present)
No, possible. rest of the world won’t let it happen. no one want to deal with a situation where a nuclear nation with 1.4 billion people disintegrates. can you imaging what the mass shooting number is gonna be like, if China lost control of AK47s in its warehouses? can you handle few hundred nuclear war heads going missing or 1.4 billion people can’t feed them selves? China currently produces 80% of the chemical needed for US drug companies, are you really able to live without China?

Ares Chen 、市场推广(2007年至今)
不可能。 其他国家不会让这种事发生的。 没有人愿意处理一个拥有14亿人口的核国家解体的情况。 你能想象一下,如果中国失去了对仓库中 ak47的控制,大规模枪击事件会是什么样子吗? 你能应付几百个核弹头失踪,或者14亿人吃不饱饭吗? 中国目前拥有生产美国制药公司所需化学品原料的80% ,你真的能够在没有中国的情况正常生活?

Jussi Salmi , Senior Researcher at University of Turku
No, it won’t. USA is a big trading partner but still it only makes up a small percentage of trade for China. Even EU is bigger in this respect. So, China can survive dropping all trade with US. This could have long term negative influences, like factories migrating from China to Vietnam, India or other countries, but this would take years. And the factories could still be owned by the Chinese.

Jussi Salmi 图尔库大学高级研究员
不会的。 美国是一个大的贸易伙伴,但它仍然只占中国贸易的一小部分。 甚至欧盟在这方面也更多。 因此,中国可以在放弃所有与美国的贸易后继续生存下去。 这可能会带来长期的负面影响,比如工厂从中国迁移到越南、印度或其他国家,但这需要几年的时间。 而且这些工厂仍然可能是中国人的。

Lucien Denisse , former Director of Food and Beverages
Do not bank on it China has endured more than a trade war with America ,China in 35–40 years Has changed from a nation of starving Paysans literally, to the Second largest economy in the word, the PRC grip on its 1,3 Billions inhabitants is greater than it has been since Mao Zedong/Zhou Enlai era .Trump in Two years have destroy the little good will that America had left .The USA need China More than China need the US ,,No China will not disintegrate because They will not fail in this trade war The US will fail

Lucien Denisse 、前食物及饮品署署长

Caesi Bevis , Professional Writer, Speaker, Trainer, Producer
Could US start to fail if the President forced an executive order steeply fining US businesses from honoring contracts with Chinese companies? Could this contribute to the collapse of the US of impact our stability at a vulnerable time?
China is a much older country than the US. The US Is 243 years old if you use 1776 as a starting point. We aren’t even a “toddler” comparatively.

Caesi Bevis 职业作家,演讲家,培训师,制片人
如果总统强制执行一项行政命令,限制美国企业与中国企业的合同,美国会失败吗? 这会不会导致美国的崩溃,在这个脆弱的时刻影响我们的稳定?

Dale Yakin , lives in China (2010-present)
Absolutely not. China has modernized and diversified, has enormous resources with access to more. Could survive reasonably well independently. Even if the trade war becomes the new normal, they will adjust and keep progressing, but maybe not as fast.
However, some serious internal issues are arising, like loans coming due on massive amounts of non-performing assets. Credit has been falling. Might be headed for their own “bailout” soon.

Dale Yakin ,生活在中国(2010年至今)
绝对不会。中国已经现代化和多样化,有巨大的资源可以获得更多。 能够独立生存。 即使贸易战成为新的常态,他们也会调整并保持发展,但可能不会那么快。
然而,一些严重的内部问题正在出现,如大量不良资产,即将到期的贷款。 信贷一直在下降。 可能很快就有自己的“救市计划”。

Yuki Inu , lives in The United States of America
Not hardly. China has been around for 5,000 years. It has only been heavily economically involved with America for 20 years. China will throw America under the bus and have no problem maintaining its economy with the rest of the world.

Yuki Inu ,生活在美利坚合众国
不会。 中国已经有5000年的历史了。 它与美国在经济上的密切联系仅仅持续了20年。 中国将把美国扔到历史的车底下,毫无问题地维持与世界其他国家的经济关系。

Dragan Grasic
Will America disintegrate if it fails in the trade war against China? Probably not, but possible.
Ask yourself a simple question: how many products have you bought in the last 3 months? How many of them are made in USA and how many are made in CHINA?

Dragan Grasic
如果美国在与中国的贸易战中失败,它会分裂吗? 也许不会,但是有可能。
问自己一个简单的问题: 在过去的三个月里你买了多少产品? 有多少是美国制造的,有多少是中国制造的?

Jason Warren , Amateur Sinologist
There is no scenario in which China would actually admit to failing in the trade war. But even in a wost case scenario, it will not result in the country's disintegration.

Jason Warren 、业余汉学家
在任何情况下,中国都不会承认自己在贸易战中失败。 但即使在最糟糕的情况下,这也不会导致国家分裂。

Jim Pease , Electrical Engineering
Nope.. They have 5000 years of experience they're going to be fine.. USA not so much Thucydides trap looms

Jim Pease 、电机工程
不会...他们有5000年的生存经验,所以他们会没事... 美国没有那么多修昔底德的陷阱

Larry Evans , former Truck Driver, Retired (1960-2015)
No. I think that will be stupid, and get more aggressive. It would be better if they decided to be a fair, honest trade partner.

Larry Evans 、前卡车司机、退休(1960-2015)
不会。 我认为这很愚蠢,很有侵略性。 如果他们决定成为一个公平、诚实的贸易伙伴,那就更好了。

Philip Xiao , lives in China (2015-present)
Yea it seems like the disintegration will happen. The 朝阳区战忽局 is already working on it.

Philip Xiao ,生活在中国(2015年至今)
是的,看起来有可能会分裂。 朝阳区战忽局已经开始工作了。

Dominique Kevers , lives in China (2015-present)
To put it simply, the only country that should collaspe in this war should be the Usa…
Don't forget that 3 of your major bank companies have been bought by China and if they want their money back, you will cry… Subprimes power…

Dominique Kevers ,生活在中国(2015年至今)
不要忘记,你的三家主要银行公司已被中国收购,如果他们想要回他们的钱,你会哭的... 次贷危机的力量...

Yi Tian , Guangdong at Senior Engineer
There are always people who fantasize about the disintegration of China every day. The people who live by fantasy are really sad.

Yi Tian ,广东省高级工程师

Geoffrey Fielden , Taxi Driver and Service Trainer (1998-present)
China Will not lose the Trade War with China they can make anything at a fraction of the cost America Can.

Geoffrey Fielden 、的士司机及服务导师(1998至今)

Gibrail Lim , Banker
Don't you know that China"s export (net) is less than 2% of China's GDP? It's peanuts. Nobody dies from not eating peanuts.

Gibrail Lim ,银行家
你难道不知道中国的出口(净出口)不到中国 GDP 的2% 吗?
这只是小数目。 没有人会因为没吃花生就会饿死。

Quora User , Entrepreneur (2018-present)
The chinese are much smarter then Americans.

Quora User 、企业家(2018年至今)

Rei Tanotsuka , Entrepreneur (2018-present)
America is only 243 years old.
China has 6000 years of documented history.
Here, let me reword the question“Will your mother cease to exist if you no longer eat the meals she prepares?”

Rei Tanotsuka 、企业家(2018年至今)