[2022-08-18]QA问答：佩洛西访问后，中国切断了与美国的军事交流，这意味着什么？

Yoonus Karofi
Nigeria will not have them. Over our dead bodies. No surrender, no retreat.

【回复】尼日利亚不会允许，除非从我们的尸体踏过，不投降，不撤退。

Eugene Tavano
China was very clear in its opposition to the visit. I had hoped for an even stronger response, like firing missiles at at least one military facility in taiwan!

【回复】中国非常明确地反对这次访问。我曾希望有更强烈的反应，比如至少向台湾的一个军事设施发射导弹！

Jim Cline
It means that China talked big, the US didn’t back down. And now China is throwing a tantrum.

【回复】这意味着中国说大话，美国没有退缩。现在中国正在发脾气。

Lee Ramer
Looks like that in western Media, except the reality is like playing chess where you are so happy because you managed to take a pawn but don’t realize you in a couple of more moves you will losing a Rook. Notice how the Us air craft carrier had to spend it’s time sailing far and away from Taiwan? China now has declared there is no division in the Taiwan straight. They also have shown how their weapons technology is 100% hits on long distance targets. The Us lost this round and will continue to do so in the future while China keeps leap frogging the West in their technology. Only a pitchfork person thinks the Us won this round.

【回复】在西方媒体看来是这样的，只不过现实就像下象棋，你设法拿了一个卒你很高兴，但没有意识到你再走几步，你就会失去一个车。注意到美国航母不得不花时间开向远处，远离台湾吗？中国现在已经宣布，台湾海峡没有中线。他们还展示了他们的武器技术100%命中远程目标。美国在这一轮中输了，未来还会继续输，而中国则在技术上不断超越西方。只有拿干草叉的人才会认为这轮是美国赢。

Jim Cline
The USS Ronald Reagan is not sailing away, it is right there. Why do you lie?
Their missiles missed their targets and landed in Japanese waters. The US missile tech is so good we can hit targets with knives.
China has zero ability to project its power to the US, while the US can strike China, that means in any conflict, China will lose.
China doesn’t even has a 5th Generation aircraft, the US has already flown a 6th generation aircraft.
China can’t hit what it can’t see. The US aircraft can pick China’s defenses apart and they would never be able to respond.

【回复】里根号航母并没有驶离，它就在那里。你为什么要撒谎？
他们的导弹没有击中目标，落在了日本海域。而美国的导弹技术非常好，我们用弹簧刀巡飞弹就可以击中目标。
中国没有向美国投射力量的能力，而美国可以打击中国，这意味着在任何冲突中，中国都会输。
中国甚至没有第五代战机，而美国已经起飞第六代战机了。
中国打不中看不见的东西。而美国战机可以撕碎中国的防御系统，他们永远无法做出反应。

Leilani
I can just see, victim number one in this conflict: Chinese American.

【回复】我明白了，这场冲突的头号受害者：华裔美国人。

Oliver Ekue
Why can't china take his eyes off Taiwan and concentrate on it speedy development instead of threatening actions, maybe for so doing Taiwan will willingly join the so called main land, Ukraine wouldn't exist today if not for the USA AND UK. Who will intervin if China invade Taiwan?

【回复】为什么中国不能把目光从台湾(地区)身上移开，专注于台湾的快速发展，而不是采取威胁行动，也许这样做台湾就会心甘情愿地加入所谓的大陆，如果没有美国和英国，乌克兰今天就不会存在了。如果中国进攻台湾(地区)，谁会来干预？

Ben Tover
They did that since 1949.
Is that not long enough? Especially when foreigners decide to challenge the 1 china principle, which was the basis of sino us relations.
Did you think China would do the military exercises around Taiwan had the visit not happened?

【回复】他们自1949年起就这么做了。
还不够长吗？特别是当外国人决定挑战作为中美关系基础的一个中国原则时。
你认为如果没有这次的窜访，中国会在台湾(地区)周边进行军事演习吗？

Thien Dang
It’s a waste of time to speak to the wall, It’s better to do something else more valuable.

【回复】对着墙说话很浪费时间，最好做一些更有价值的事情。
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CaiLei Lives in China (1975–present)
In disregard of China's strong opposition and serious representations, Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi visited China's Taiwan region. Chinese Foreign Ministry on Friday announced the following countermeasures in response:
* Canceling China-U.S. Theater Commanders Talk.
* Canceling China-U.S. Defense Policy Coordination Talks (DPCT).
* Canceling China-U.S. Military Maritime Consultative Agreement (MMCA) meetings.
* Suspending China-U.S. cooperation on the repatriation of illegal immigrants.
* Suspending China-U.S. cooperation on legal assistance in criminal matters.
* Suspending China-U.S. cooperation against transnational crimes.
* Suspending China-U.S. counternarcotics cooperation.
* Suspending China-U.S. talks on climate change.

【回答】住在中国(1975年-至今)
美国众议院议长佩洛西不顾中方的强烈反对和严正交涉，窜访了中国台湾地区。中国外交部上周五宣布了以下反制措施：
一、取消安排中美两军战区领导通话。
二、取消中美国防部工作会晤。
三、取消中美海上军事安全磋商机制会议。
四、暂停中美非法移民遣返合作。
五、暂停中美刑事司法协助合作。
六、暂停中美打击跨国犯罪合作。
七、暂停中美禁毒合作。
八、暂停中美气候变化商谈。

Items 1-3 are the content of military cooperation. These three points are in response to the demands of the "rationalists" in the American ruling bloc to install "safety bolts". The existence of the "safety bolt" depends on whether the United States respects China's core interests. If the United States does not respect China's core interests, it does not matter whether there are "safety bolts". If you are afraid of death, watch out for lunatics in your own country.
After the implementation of Item 5-6. China will immediately tighten border controls. The U.S. could further become an excellent haven for “west expendable raw”. In the past, China was able to extradite in the name of criminal justice cooperation (although the U.S. basically did not cooperate), But now China is simply giving up those "west expendable raw". Guo Wengui can now live in the United States with peace of mind until his death.

第1-3项是军事合作的内容。这三项是对美国统治集团中“理性主义者”要求安装“安全护栏”的回应。“安全护栏”的存在取决于美国是否尊重中国的核心利益。如果美国不尊重中国的核心利益，那么是否有“安全护栏”都无所谓了。如果你怕死，就当心你们国家的疯子吧。
第5-6项实施后。中国将立即加强边境管制。美国可能进一步成为“西方耗材”的绝佳避风港。过去，中国可以以刑事司法合作的名义进行引渡(尽管美国基本上不合作)，但现在中国干脆放弃了那些“西方耗材”。郭文贵现在可以安心地在美国生活，直到死去。

Item 4 is the issue of illegal immigration, which was previously gave the GOP some face and is now withdrawn.
The Item 7 is anti-drug cooperation, which is mainly aimed at the fentanyl issue raised by Trump. In the past, it was to give Trump some face, but now it has been withdrawn. Brother of Mexican American and Colombian American in the United States can buy high-quality and cheap fentanyl raw materials in large quantities in the future, and sell for a fortune. Marijuana is legal in the US anyway, and fentanyl is not listed as a prohibited substance in the US.
The item 8 is climate cooperation. This is the basic vote base of the Democratic Party. In the past, China gave the Democratic Party some face, and is now withdrawn.

第4项是非法移民问题，以前给了共和党一些面子，现在被撤回了。
第7项是禁毒合作，主要针对特朗普提出的芬太尼问题。在过去，这是为了给特朗普一些面子，但现在也被撤回了。墨西哥裔美国人和哥伦比亚裔美国人的兄弟，未来可以大量购买质优价廉的芬太尼原料，卖个大价钱。毕竟，大麻在美国是合法的，而且美国并没有把芬太尼列为违禁药物。
第8项是气候合作。这是民主党的基本票源。过去，中国给了民主党一些面子，现在撤回了。

For the time being, there has been no touch on economic and trade relations, and it is not a complete decoupling of China and the United States.
If China takes full-scale retaliatory measures, it will directly touch US Treasury bonds.

目前暂时还没有涉及两国之间的经贸关系，中美关系还没完全脱钩。
如果中国采取全面报复措施，将直接触及美国国债。
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DuolaAmeng
The video that you attached, reminds me of the TV series “The Walking Dead”….

【回复】你附上的那视频，让我想起了电视连续剧“行尸走肉”...

Mike McCarthy
I believe it’s a video from a notorious area of several streets in Philadelphia. The long term use of hard drugs has some zombie like results.

【回复】我记得这是一段来自费城一个臭名昭著的街区的视频。长期使用硬性毒品会导致一些类似僵尸的后果。

Pavel Wolkow
it is a great pity to see this

【回复】看到这一幕真是太让人遗憾了

Elinor Hampton
As far as I know, it's not just in Philadelphia.

【回复】据我所知，这不只是在费城。

Rick Shaw
What would cause prc to dump treasuries?

【回复】什么情况会导致中国抛售美国国债？

CaiLei
last step.

【答主回复】最后一步。

Asit Mohanty
What would happen if PRC dump treasuries? And how would it do that? What would be the impact on China’s own exchange rate if it dumps $1T of US bonds in a week/month?

【回复】如果中国抛售美国国债会发生什么？它会怎么做？如果中国在一周/月内抛售1万亿美元的美国国债，将对中国自己的汇率产生什么影响？

J Tan
This would hurt China the bond holder more. They would have to sell them at a big discount and the new holders would still get the same yield from such purchase.

【回复】这将对债券持有方中国造成更大伤害。他们将不得不以大折扣出售这些债券，而新持有者仍将从购买中获得同样的收益。

Mike McCarthy
China dumping treasury bonds would be like sabotaging their own economy, because a major downturn in the US economy would smother demand for Chinese exports worldwide. China could do it, but the ramifications for everyone would be quite bad, and likely for a long time. I believe that China would prefer just to threaten to sell off bonds as a means of leverage against the US. You can’t get angry and burn down your neighbor’s condo when your own condo is part of that same building because you’re both going to get burned, to use a sloppy analogy.

【回复】中国抛售国债就相当于破坏他们自己的经济，因为美国经济的大幅下滑会抑制全球对中国出口产品的需求。中国可以这么做，但对每个人的影响都会非常糟糕，而且可能会持续很长一段时间。我认为，中国更愿意只是威胁抛售债券，作为制衡美国的筹码。用一个不恰当的比喻来说，当你自己的公寓和邻居的公寓是同一栋楼的一部分时，你不能因为愤怒而烧毁邻居的公寓，因为你们都会被牵连。

Toolmaker
America is less than 3% of China’s economy. It might hurt some businesses, but China does not operate for profit. Pelosi has no idea what she stirred up. China expects the words and actions to match, USA cannot continue stating they honor the agreements while the #2 in line for president is making statements that violate the agreement.

【回复】美国在中国经济中所占比例不到3%。这可能会损害一些企业，但中国的经营不是以利润为目的。佩洛西不知道她惹了什么麻烦。中国要求言行一致，美国不能继续声明他们遵守协议，而第二号总统候选人却发表违反协议的声明。

Mike McCarthy
Saying “America is less than 3% of China’s economy” makes no sense. It says nothing because it is so vague, which makes me think you don’t have a lot of real information to offer. First, important here is China’s exports, not their economy. Obviously China exports products everywhere in the world, but the US makes up a very large market for those exports. I don’t know, and don’t care enough to look up specific percentages, but it’s a sizable percentage. It seems you are trying to steer the conversation into politics, but my point is not political, it’s simply that if China is to get angry enough to order a sell off of US treasury bonds, they would be cutting off their nose to spite their face. Maybe this will happen, but the Chinese officials have often shown themselves to be pragmatic, rather than spiteful, when their money is concerned.

【回复】说“美国在中国经济中所占比例不到3%”是没有意义的。说得太模糊了，就像什么都没说，这让我觉得你没有多少真正的信息可以提供。首先，重要的是中国的出口，而不是他们的经济。显然，中国的产品出口到世界各地，但美国为这些出口构成了一个非常大的市场。我不知道，也不想去查具体的百分比，但这是一个相当大的比例。你似乎想把话题引向政治，但我的观点不是关于政治，简单地说，如果中国愤怒到下令抛售美国国债，他们将自讨苦吃。也许这种情况会发生，但当涉及到他们的钱时，中国官员经常表现出务实，而不是恶意的态度。

Shawn Cheng
I think he's talking about export to the US as a % of China’s total GDP. Export accounts for about 19% of China’s total GDP in 2021, and coincidentally export to the US accounts for about 19% of all export, which translates to roughly 3.6% of China’s GDP

【回复】我认为他说的是对美出口占中国GDP总量的百分比。2021年，出口额约占中国GDP总量的19%，巧合的是，对美出口额约占总出口总额的19%，相当于中国GDP的3.6%

Rick Shaw
China also stopped export of silica sand to taiwan for making semiconductors This is what sounds like war to me most of all

【回复】中国(大陆)还停止向台湾出口用于制造半导体的天然砂。在我看来，这部分听起来最像是战争

Erwin Lee
Mainland silica consist 30% of Taiwanese silica import.
Interesting where will Taiwan get the substitute. And will there be price increase.

【回复】大陆的天然砂占台湾天然砂进口量的30%。
有意思的是，台湾要从哪里得到替代品？还有价格会上涨吗？

Xuan Su
Based on US sanctions on Russia, when that time of conflict with US comes, the additional negative effect of dumping the treasuries on Chinese economy would be negligible. Destroying the economy of US would probably shorten that conflict. If it doesn’t, then it at least weakened US.

【回复】从美国对俄罗斯的制裁来看，当与美国发生冲突的时候，抛售美国国债对中国经济的额外负面影响是可以忽略不计的。摧毁美国经济可能会缩短这场冲突。如果不能，那至少也会削弱美国。

Mike McCarthy
Don’t you think your outlook is rather one dimensional? Whether you like it or not, the world economies are interdependent. Even if what you contend is true, a sell off of US bonds would be negligible to China and harmful to the US, there would be a serious response from the US, likely in the form of tariffs or significant limitations on Chinese exports. Additionally, a severe US economic downturn would see a major downturn in ability to buy products, not just from China, but also exporting countries worldwide, and this lack of markets and money sources for all industrialized countries would almost certainly put the worldwide economy in a tailspin, potentially leading to a great depression like the one that occurred in the 1930s. The term “mutual assured destruction” doesn’t apply only to nuclear weapons. Think tanks with economic theorists in both the US and China know this, and are aware of the catastrophic effect that would occur.
Another thing that I think is important to point out: To China, the issue of Taiwan is considered one of interference in their internal sovereignty. Conversely, it is likely that the US regards it as one of open waterways. Historically the US has always showed a willingness to engage in conflicts when there was the potential of a threat to waterways.

【回复】你不觉得你的观点很片面吗？不管你喜欢与否，世界经济是相互依存的。即使你所说的是真的，抛售美国债券对中国来说微不足道，而对美国来说是有害的，美国也会做出严厉的回应，可能是对中国出口加征关税或实施重大限制。此外，如果美国经济严重下滑，将使美国的购买产品的能力大幅下降，不仅是从中国的购买，从全世界出口国的购买也是如此，所有工业化国家缺乏市场和资金来源，几乎肯定会使全球经济陷入混乱，可能导致像1930年代那样的大萧条。“相互保证毁灭”一词并不仅仅适用于核武器。美国和中国的智囊团与经济理论家都知道这一点，也意识到可能发生的灾难性后果。
我认为还有一点需要指出：对中国来说，台湾问题被视为是对其内部主权的干涉。相反，美国可能将其视为一条开放的航道。从历史上看，当航道受到可能的威胁时，美国总是表现出参与冲突的意愿。

Xuan Su
Why would the health of US economy be a concern for China if/when US engages in conflict with China? Based on US and allies’s action toward Russia, any foreign assets held by China that’s not under Chinese control would likely be taken anyway. So that’s one very strong incentive for China to sell whatever that could be sold when conflict is inevitable.
Now as far as waterway is concerned, Taiwan strait is at best a shortcut, not a choke point like strait of Malacca or Homouz or Gibraltar. Even if China cuts it off to foreign passage, realistically only traffic to Korea and Japan would be affected, and detour to east side of Taiwan island add maybe a couple hundred miles to the journey, hardly an issue for anyone involved. Not to mention China has never threatened commercial traffic in any waterway under Chinese control. US’s claim of “freedom of navigation” is really “freedom of Navigation for US navy”. Which is a concept I find highly offensive and should be scrapped altogether.

【回复】如果/当美国与中国发生冲突时，为什么美国经济的健康状况会成为中国关心的问题？从美国和盟国对俄罗斯的行动来看，中国持有的任何不在中国控制之下的外国资产都有可能被没收。因此，当冲突不可避免时，这是中国出售任何可以出售的东西的一个非常强烈的动机。
如今，就航道而言，台湾海峡充其量只是一条捷径，而不是像马六甲海峡、霍尔木兹海峡或直布罗陀海峡那样的咽喉要道。即使中国切断了对外国的通道，实际上只有通往韩国和日本的交通会受到影响，而绕道台湾岛东部可能会增加几百英里的行程，这对任何相关人士来说都不是问题。更不用说中国从来没有威胁过在中国控制下的任何航道上的商业运输。美国声称的“航行自由”实际上是“美国海军的航行自由”。我觉得这是一个非常冒犯的概念，应该被彻底废除。

Mike McCarthy
Why do you think a major conflict between the US and China is a certainty?

【回复】为什么你认为美国和中国之间的重大冲突是必然的？

Mike McCarthy
First, have you read what I wrote? The sales of a lot of world goods occur in the US. Should the US economy fall apart, the world’s economy would likely fall into a depression, because when demand for exports ends, nobody anywhere is going to be doing any business. When the other nations have no incoming money, Chinese exports are going shrivel as well. How are you missing something so obvious? Are you familiar with the term pyrrhic victory?
Second, China could forcibly take Taiwan by invading it, but they would also likely kill thousands of people there who were not affiliated with the military. It would not be a popular war. I’m not sure what the fallout would be, but China would become something of a pariah.

【回复】首先，你读过我写的东西吗？世界上许多商品的销售都是在美国。如果美国经济崩溃，全球经济可能会陷入萧条，因为当出口需求停止时，任何地方都没有人会做生意。当其他国家没有资金流入时，中国的出口也会萎缩。你怎么会漏掉这么明显的东西？你知道“得不偿失的胜利”这个词吗？
其次，中国可以通过进攻台湾来强行夺取台湾，但是他们也可能会杀死数以千计非军队的人。这不会是一场受欢迎的战争。我不知道会有什么后果，但中国会成为某种意义上被遗弃的国家。

Xuan Su
The real question is have you read my answer. I have already answered the question of whether China should care if US economy collapse due to dumping of treasuries. In the face of US and western nations’ inevitable sanctions, it doesn’t make any difference for China if they couldn’t continue to buy products due to a depression. That market would have been closed to China regardless. The only concern for China at that point is recovery of as much assets as possible before they get taken.
Fact of the matter is, China WILL take back Taiwan, by any means necessary, especially with US policies turning decidedly antagonistic in recent years. There is no hope for a peaceful and collaborative relationship between US and China where everyone’s core interest could be respected. room for flexibility no longer exist because US have left eveyone no room to maneuver.

【回复】真正的问题是，你读过我的回答了吗。美国经济是否会因为美国国债的抛售而崩溃，中国是否应该关心这情况，我已经回答了这问题。面对美国和西方国家不可避免的制裁，如果他们因为经济萧条而不能继续购买产品，这对中国没有任何区别。毕竟，这个市场不会对中国开放。在这一点上，中国唯一关心的是在资产被拿走之前，尽可能多地收回资产。
事实是，中国将采取一切必要手段收回台湾，尤其是在近年来美国的政策明显转向对抗的情况下。美中之间不可能建立一种每个人的核心利益都能得到尊重的和平与合作的关系。灵活性的空间不复存在，因为美国已经让每个人都没有回旋的余地。

Christopher Bong
Talking about waterways, the threats of shutting down the Straits of Malacca to choke and blockade China will also see severe retaliation.

【回复】就航道而言，威胁关闭马六甲海峡以遏制和封锁中国，也会遭到严厉的报复。

Antonio Arcano-Silva
I’ll be nice Taiwan they join China Finally I think that would be the turning point in history.
Thanks to the Ukrainian war it was a turning point for the multipolar world. USA Hegemony has greatly weaken and I don't think they will comeback. USA is too divided, and I wouln’t be surprised of there was a Civil War in USA ten years from now.

【回复】我很乐见台湾最后回归中国。我认为这会是历史的转折点。
多亏乌克兰战争，这是多极世界的转折点。美国霸权已经大大削弱，我不认为他们会卷土重来。美国太分裂了，如果十年后美国发生内战，我也不会感到惊讶的。

Dick Chini
Well China is barking not communicating

【回复】中国是在咆哮，而不是交流

Calvin L
I think China has been pretty clear with its communication. For months. The US decided to not listen. There comes a point when further communication serves no more purpose.

【回复】我认为中国已经沟通得很清楚了。好几个月。美国决定不听。当进一步的沟通已经没有任何意义时，终会有这一刻。

Lam Yc
Indeed nancy pelosi’s visit handed China a golden opportunity to conduct military exercise all over Taiwan

【回复】事实上，南希·佩洛西的窜访给中国提供了一个在台湾(地区)各地进行军事演习的黄金机会。

Jesuan Wu
Chinese people called for shooting down the American plane even. But thank god the Chinese government is professional and not a bunch of show runners easily swayed by public opinion, it knows that the Pelosi visit was just background noise and decided to use it as an excuse to make real gains on the real goal: reunification with Taiwan.
Now Chinese ships and planes are carrying out live fire exercises on the Taiwanese coast where the Taiwanese can even see them. So basically China took over the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan's most precious natural defense. Had it not been for Pelosi, this would have been seen as an unilateral move changing the status quo and draw criticisms and maybe even sanctioned, but now most people are pinning in on Pelosi and the US, not on China.

【回复】中国人甚至呼吁击落美国飞机。但谢天谢地，中国政府很专业，不是一群容易被舆论左右的表演者，它知道佩洛西的窜访只是背景噪音，并决定以此为理由，在真正的目标上取得真正的成果：与台湾的统一。
现在，中国的舰船和飞机正在台湾沿海进行实弹演习，台湾人甚至可以看到这些场面。所以，基本上中国已经接管了台湾海峡，台湾最珍贵的天然防御。如果不是佩洛西，这可能会被视为改变现状的单边行动，招致批评，甚至可能受到制裁，但现在大多数人都把矛头指向佩洛西和美国，而不是中国。

Sertsa
So China are professional bullies, but get all quiet when the US shows their face.

【回复】所以，中国是职业恶霸，但当美国露面时，他们就安静了。

Jesuan Wu
How is China the bully when it was the US that invaded China?
China is pragmatic. It knows that it's goal is reunification with Taiwan, not conflict with the US, and frankly, Pelosi wouldn’t have visited Taiwan had the rebels in Taiwan not invited her. So China is angry at the US but mostly its actions are directed at the Taiwan rebels. Simple, clean logic.

【回复】当美国入侵中国的时候，中国怎么就成了恶霸了？
中国是务实的。它知道自己的目标是与台湾统一，而不是与美国发生冲突，坦率地说，如果不是台湾叛军邀请她，佩洛西也不会窜访台湾。因此，中国对美国感到愤怒，但它的行动主要是针对台湾叛军的。简单明了的逻辑。

Christopher Bong
China knows she cannot win in a long distant war. Apparently the US believe that she can.

【回复】中国知道她不可能在一场远距离战争中获胜。显然，美国相信她可以。

Bruno Andreessen
Yes…and the US will retaliate and tank the Chinese economy.

【回复】是的... 美国将进行报复，并重创中国经济。
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Tony Tan
What is the point of maintaing any kind of communication with the US? That country lies and breaks promises all the time.

【回答】
与美国保持任何形式的沟通有什么意义？那个国家一直在撒谎，违背诺言。

Eddie
It made the world more unpredictable, uncertain, tumultuous and foreboding, USA will always be in a Flux as to China’s next move, the ‘unknown’ will eat usa from the inside. It's better, even though i hate it, to maintain dialog with China at all time.

【回答】
这使得世界变得更加不可预测、不确定、动荡和不安。美国对于中国的下一步行动将始终处于摇摆状态，“未知”将从内部吞噬美国。尽管我不喜欢，但最好还是一直与中国保持对话。

Nick AI MPH from University of New South Wales (Graduated 1998)
Undoubtedly, the two-week plus, well-planned Pelosi visit was definitely not her acting alone to provoke China, the US Parliament, the White House and TW DPP lobby groups had echoed each other and schemed this trip together. But hilariously it seems that such a farce has badly backfired both in the US and in the world.
Omens betide no good:
The military communication channels that have taken a long time and sufficient efforts to build are a vital part of the bilateral risk control and crisis management mechanism between the US and China. Without them, the grave risk of military conflicts will be easily, quickly out of control.
If we look back on the Pelosi visit event, we should know how the Sino-US previously existing military communication channels were potentially working to minimize potential military conflicts and how important they are.

【回答】新南威尔士大学 公共卫生硕士(1998年毕业)
毫无疑问，佩洛西两周多精心策划的访问绝不是她个人挑衅中国的行为，美国议会、白宫和民进党游说团体相互呼应，共同策划了这次行程。但可笑的是，这样一出闹剧似乎在美国和全世界都产生了严重的反效果。
不祥的预兆：
中美两军经过长时间、充分努力建立的沟通渠道，是中美双边风险控制和危机管理机制的一个重要组成部分。没有这些，军事冲突的严重风险将很容易、很快失去控制。
如果我们回顾佩洛西的窜访事件，就应该知道中美之前存在的军事沟通渠道能够最大限度减少潜在的军事冲突，以及其重要性。

Simply based on some logical commonsense and known details, it had shown that during the Pelosi visit, why her plane didn’t be intercepted or shot down by PLA fighter jets, there must have had a tacit understanding and compromise at the government and military levels from the US and China. At least China acquiesced that even under the worst circumstance, PLA wouldn’t shoot her plane down and would let the plane pass. And possibly, the US also agreed for her plane to make an elaborate, long detour and take extra three hours to avoid all sensitive, risky areas, such as PLA military exercises areas, China’s ADIZ, the South China sea, etc. Otherwise, she would never have had the guts or dare to gamble with her life and deliberately stir up a potential nuclear war between gigantic nuclear superpowers to go ahead with her provocative TW trip.

仅仅基于一些逻辑常识和已知细节就可以看出，佩洛西在访问期间，她的飞机为什么没有被解放军战斗机拦截或击落，中美两国政府和军方一定有默契和妥协。至少中国默认，即使在最糟糕的情况下，解放军也不会击落她的飞机，而是让飞机通过。此外，美国还可能同意她的飞机进行一次精心设计的长途绕行，并多花三个小时避开所有敏感、危险的地区，如军事演习区、中国的防空识别区、南海等。否则，她绝不会有胆量或者敢于拿自己的生命去赌博，故意挑起核超级大国之间潜在的核战争，来继续她挑衅性的台湾之行。

All these crisis management mechanisms are utterly based on the various levels of governmental and military communication channels.
Once these communications have been cut without other alternative solutions, the risk for future conflict, including military frictions will increase and possibly get out of control. As part of China’s punishment for the Pelosi TW trip, China has halted military, and climate talks with the U.S., it has shown that China is utterly boiling with rage and also prepared for even possible increased, intensified military conflicts in the future. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, "Those Who Offend China Will Be Punished".

所有这些危机管理机制都完全建立在各级政府和军队沟通渠道的基础之上。
一旦在没有其他替代解决方案的情况下切断这些沟通，未来发生冲突包括军事摩擦的风险，将会增加，甚至可能会失控。作为中国对佩洛西台湾之行惩罚的一部分，中国已经停止了与美国的军事和气候对话，这表明中国已经出离愤怒，并且为未来可能增加、加剧的军事冲突做好了准备。中国外交部长王毅：“得罪中国的人，将受到惩罚”。