[2022-07-04]红迪Sino板块：关于武统台湾，中国可以从俄乌冲突中得到什么启示？

BeefyMongol
I really dont know how China is militarily but from what Ive seen from the war is that tanks are only effective when its accompanied by supporting infantry or utilities (like AA radar and BUK) and sufficient forward scouting. The first few days of the war went pretty badly for Russia because they rushed into it and got the supply routes hit pretty badly but since they started using drones and the battle moved to a more open field they're having a ball right now.
My advice would be to use a bunch of drones and never let tank columns go unsupported. Also artillery and cruise missiles are the way to go which I know China has been building a whole bunch. Also fighter planes that specializes in low altitude assaults/support for precision strikes would be a real nice addition given the planes have sufficient counter measures against stingers. Russia practically have next to none of those and they had some troubles doing fast precision strikes in urban areas
Oh yeah forgot to mention this! Human shields, The Ukrainians were using their own people as human shields is why the Urban assaults were going so slow in Mariupol. Dont know if Taiwan will be the same but that shit is definitely in their playbook

我真的不知道中国军事实力如何，但是我从战争中看到的是，坦克只有在有步兵或者实用工具(如AA雷达和BUK)的支援和充足的前方侦察的情况下才有效。战争的最初几天对俄罗斯来说很糟糕，因为他们仓促上阵，补给线受到严重打击，但是自从他们开始使用无人飞机，战斗转移到一个更开阔的领域，现在他们打得很嗨。
我的建议是使用大量无人飞机，不要让坦克纵队失去支援。另外，火炮和巡航导弹也是正道，我知道中国已经建造了一大批。此外，专门进行低空攻击/支持精确打击的战斗机会是很好的补充，因为这种飞机有足够的反制措施来对付毒刺导弹。俄罗斯几乎没有这些东西，他们在城市地区进行快速精确打击时遇到了一些麻烦。
噢，对了，忘了说这点！人肉盾牌，乌克兰人用他们自己的人民做人肉盾牌，这就是为什么在马里乌波尔的城市突击进展得如此缓慢的原因。不知道台湾会不会也这样，但是，他们的剧本里肯定有这种恶心手段。

jz187 -> BeefyMongol
Luckily China has invested far more heavily in drones than Russia. The main role of manned aviation in a Taiwan war would be to provide airborne radar, command, and deter foreign intervention.
Cheap recon/strike platforms like the CH4 is perfectly sufficient to hunt Taiwanese ground targets.
Taiwan is still preparing for a beach defense against amphibious assault. They don't realize what fighting a massive swarm of drones would entail.

幸运的是，中国在无人飞机方面的投资远远超过俄罗斯。有人飞机在台湾战争中的主要作用是提供机载雷达、指挥和阻止外国干预。
像CH4这样的廉价侦察/打击平台，完全足以追捕台湾的地面目标。
台湾仍在准备海滩防御以对抗两栖攻击。他们没有意识到对抗一大群无人飞机会有什么后果。

SonOfTheDragon101
Russia has so far done far better than was expected, when you consider the entire West has and all their lapdogs have piled on economic sanctions against Russia, who has overtaken North Korea as the most sanctioned country in the world. Russia is actually winning the economic war, as it is Western countries that are bearing the brunt of high inflation, economic recession, and the electoral fallout from it all.
Russia was always going to beat Ukraine in a military war. The West cannot directly intervene because Russia's nuclear arsenal takes care of that. It was more the economic war that was the unknown factor.
I hope China will not need to use force to reunite with Taiwan. But I'm not optimistic that force can be avoided. The US will keep provoking and instigating. When a red line is crossed, China will have no choice but to go to war, so it has to be ready for it.
The single most important lesson here is that the possession of a massive nuclear deterrent means A LOT in international relations. No one in the West DARE take on Russia in an actual battlefield - they'll only wage proxy war from a safe distance. Without the nukes, Russia does not have the manpower or economic ability to fight a protracted military war against the entire NATO.
China has long progressed beyond a stage where a nominal minimum deterrent of 300 nukes is sufficient to protect its interests. China is no longer an economically weak country others aren't interested in. China now has much greater interests to protect. The minimal credible deterrent no longer work - only a US-ending nuclear arsenal in the tens of thousands of warhead, capable of completely wiping out the entire US population (along with the rest of its puppets and stooges) will safeguard China's interests and ensure none of them DARE intervene, just as they DO NOT DARE go to war with Russia.

考虑到整个西方世界，以及他们所有的走狗，都在对俄罗斯进行大规模经济制裁，到目前为止，俄罗斯的表现远远好于预期。俄罗斯已经超过朝鲜，成为世界上受制裁最严重的国家。俄罗斯实际上正在赢得这场经济战争，因为西方国家首当其冲地承受着高通胀、经济衰退以及由此带来的选举后果。
俄罗斯总会在军事战争中打败乌克兰。西方无法直接干预，因为俄罗斯的核武库能够处理这个情况。更多的经济战争才是未知因素。
我希望中国不需要使用武力来统一台湾。但是我不会乐观地认为武力是可以避免的。美国将继续挑衅和煽动。当越过红线时，中国将别无选择，只能开战，所以它必须做好准备。
这里唯一最重要的教训是，拥有大规模核威慑力量在国际关系中意义重大。西方没有谁敢在真正的战场上与俄罗斯对抗，他们只会在安全距离之外发动代理人战争。没有核武器，俄罗斯就没有人力或经济能力与整个北约打一场持久的军事战争。
中国已经越过了名义上300枚核弹的最低威慑力量足以保护其利益的阶段。中国不再是一个其他国家都不感兴趣的经济弱国了。中国现在有更大的利益需要保护。最低限度的可靠威慑力不再有效了，只有拥有能够终结美国的数万枚核弹头的核武库，能够彻底消灭整个美国人口(连同其余的傀儡和走狗)，才能保障中国的利益，并确保他们中没有人敢干预，就像他们不敢和俄罗斯开战一样。

folatt -> SonOfTheDragon101
Nuclear arsenal? Lol.
Why use nukes when you can win conventially?
Russia doesn't need to cross oceans to protect itself.

核武库？哈哈。
既然用常规手段就能赢，为什么还要用核武器？
俄罗斯不需要跨越大洋来保护自己。

SonOfTheDragon101 -> folatt
Nukes are the deterrent which PREVENTS the conventional war from even happening by ensuring that the US wouldn't even DARE try to intervene in a hot war of China. There is a clear reason why the US and NATO can't just engage in a hot war with Russia. And in an asymmetric conflict where Russia is far behind NATO in manpower, GDP, military budget, nukes are indisputably Russia's trump card why it can defy and tie down all of NATO by itself.

核武器是防止常规战争发生的威慑力量，确保美国甚至不敢试图干预中国的热战。美国和北约不能和俄罗斯打热战的原因很明显。在一场不对称的冲突中，俄罗斯在人力、GDP、军事预算等方面远远落后于北约，核武器无疑是俄罗斯凭一己之力就能对抗并牵制整个北约的王牌。

folatt -> SonOfTheDragon101
Russia is not going to fight in the oceans and can shoot anything down coming from the sky, which is where most of NATO's budget goes to.

俄罗斯不会在海洋上作战，它可以击落天空的任何东西，而北约的大部分预算都花在了天空。

SadArtemis -> folatt
A conventional war between China and the west would be a pyrrhic victory. Once you're losing tens of thousands of troops (and likely equal or far more so, civilians), considerable damage to infrastructure, and the full disruptions of war- even in the best case scenario, it would take blood and resources a sum that, if preventable, by all means should be avoided. It also bears far more risk of spilling into something far greater in scope.
Conventional war with the 5 Eyes and their puppets, for instance, would certainly see the US attempt to blockade and engage in piracy throughout the SCS and Indian ocean; this alone would result in economic and human losses, even in the best case scenario. It would also certainly see US attempts at mass bombing (and perhaps chemical warfare) of the mainland; while China would be capable of mitigating much of the damage, even in the best case scenario one has to expect a certain percentage of attacks to go through. Even if 99% of attacks fail, the damage would be significant- if there is one thing the US is no slouch in, it is bombing the hell out of countries.
The US itself would likely remain mostly untouched, in comparison- no matter how much their allies and puppets bleed. I think it's important to remember that the US absolutely would, and will, target civilian centers, specifically seek to destroy whatever maintains Chinese civilization (water and energy facilities, telecoms, hospitals, schools, even bio-warfare against crops would not be considered off the menu). They did so in Iraq, in Afghanistan, and in Yugoslavia among others in relatively recent history, or for bio-warfarea, further back in Vietnam and N. Korea.

中国与西方之间的常规战争将是一场代价高昂的胜利。一旦你失去了数以万计的军队(平民的损失可能相当或更多) ，基础设施遭到严重破坏，以及战争全面混乱——即使在最好的情况下，这也需要大量的鲜血和资源，如果可以避免的话，应该尽力避免。这情况还承担着更大的风险，可能波及到更大的范围。
例如，与五眼及其傀儡的常规战争，肯定会看到美国试图封锁南海和印度洋，并在整个南海和印度洋从事海盗活动；即使在最好的情况下，单是这一点也会造成经济和人员的损失。当然也会看到美国试图对中国大陆进行大规模轰炸(也许还有化学战)；尽管中国有能力减轻大部分损失，但即使在最好的情况下，人们也不得不预计会有一定比例的袭击发生。即使99%的攻击都失败了，带来的损失也是巨大的，如果说一件美国没有懈怠的事情——那就是轰炸各个国家。
相比之下，美国自身很可能基本不会受影响，无论它的盟友和傀儡们流了多少血。我认为重要的是要记住，美国绝对会，也一定会以民用中心为目标，专门寻求摧毁任何维持中国文明的设施(水和能源设施、电信、医院、学校，甚至对农作物的生物战都会被考虑在内)。在相对较近的历史中，他们在伊拉克、阿富汗和南斯拉夫等地都这样做过，或者更早之前的越南和朝鲜的生物战。

DefinitlyNotJoa
First, it's important that we recognize that, for as much as some people say, Taiwan is not and never will be, a "Ukraine". If you want to send material aid (wether civilian or military) to Ukraine, you cross a border, which is protect by NATO's Article 5. In the case of Taiwan, you need to cross an entire ocean, that offers absolutly no diplomatic protection when "en route".
China will also have, for all intents and purpose, air dominance from day one, or at least, it won't let Taiwan fighters take-off. If Japan wants to get some, the only way of getting into Taiwanese airspace is using F-15J's or F-35's, in which case both need external fuel tanks, which will light them on radars like a christmas tree.
And the most important part of Chinese defense will be "Area Deniabilty" that extends throughout the entire area of operations, in which US aircraft carriers will need to traverse if they are to help in any capacity, Taiwan.
All of this only happens though if the US shoots the first shot, given that time is on the PRC side. As the empire starts to crumble, the benefits of being its little proxy, will start disappering.
It's important to remember also, that one of the reasons that Ukraine got to the point that it is now, is caused by the EU and the US exploiting old wounds and an overall poor society.
They are barely holding, after sanctioning Russia, I very much doubt they could keep functioning properly if they tried the same thing with China.

首先，我们必须认识到，正如一些人所说，台湾现在不是、将来也永远不会是“乌克兰”。如果你想向乌克兰提供物资援助(无论是民用的还是军用的)，你必须越过边境，这是受北约第五条保护的。就台湾而言，你需要跨越整个大洋，在这“途中”绝对没有任何外交保护。
无论出于何种意图和目的，中国都将从第一天起就拥有空中优势，或者至少不会让台湾战斗机起飞。如果日本想要做一些事，进入台湾“领空”的唯一途径就是使用 F-15J 或 F-35，在这种情况下，它们都需要外部燃料箱，这样的话，它们在雷达上就会像圣诞树那样明亮。
而中国防御最重要的部分是“区域拒止”，这将延伸到整个作战区域，如果美国航母想要帮助台湾，它需要穿越这片区域。
然而，所有这些都只有在美国开第一枪的情况下才会发生，因为时间在中国这边的。随着帝国开始崩塌，作为它的小代理人的好处，将开始消失。
同样重要的是要记住，乌克兰走到今天这一步的原因之一，是欧盟和美国利用旧的伤口和一个整体贫穷的社会。
在制裁了俄罗斯之后，他们几乎撑不住了，我非常怀疑，如果他们对中国采取同样的做法，他们能否保持正常运转。

aimixin
The PLA doesn't need to intervene in Taiwan. PRC's economy is growing while US is struggling because of COVID. PRC is becoming the major economic partner throughout all of Asia because US has spread itself too thin with all its military bases and can't offer anyone anything. In 20-30 years, the PRC will be miles ahead of the US, and Taiwanese authorities will happily soften relations with the mainland because the US will have nothing to offer. Especially as climate crisis gets worse, Taiwan needs infrastructure, it has a water crisis, and energy crisis.

解放军不需要干预台湾。中国经济持续增长，而美国正因疫情而挣扎。中国正在成为整个亚洲的主要经济伙伴，由于美国的所有军事基地，让自己精力太过于分散，无法提供任何东西。在20-30年后，中国将遥遥领先美国，而台湾将乐于缓和与大陆的关系，因为美国没什么能提供的。特别是随着气候危机的加剧，台湾需要基础设施，它面临着水资源危机和能源危机。

jorvis_nonof
Taiwan is an island, and it is not self-sufficient for food or energy. A naval blockade, no-fly zone, and bombing the ports and power plants should be all it takes to force a surrender within a year. No costly and bloody amphibious would be necessary, and even if undertaken, should only be done after a year or so of blockade, to ensure the defenders are more concerned with finding some scraps to eat, than with fighting.
Bonus points for cutting any underwater communications cables and bombing anything on the island that emits a radio wave, so that the DPP cannot engage in any media theatrics to rally overseas support or attempt to coordinate an escape.

台湾是一个岛，食物和能源都不能自给自足。海上封锁，禁飞区，轰炸港口和发电厂应该就能在一年内迫使其投降。不需要进行昂贵和流血的两栖作战，即使要进行，也应该在封锁一年左右后进行，以确保守军更关心的是找到一些残羹剩饭，而不是迎战。
切断水下任何通讯电缆，轰炸岛上任何发射无线电波的地方，这样民进党就无法在任何媒体上演戏，来争取海外支持或试图策划逃跑。

yuewanggoujian
If they are going to use force; they need to do it quick; precise, and without hesitation. Dragging on a conflict just prolongs the propaganda warfare.
Of course the best thing to do is diplomatically defuse the situation with the Taiwan side and not to depend on the diplomacy through a third-party intermediary. When family gets into a legal dispute; the only winners are the lawyers.

如果他们要使用武力，他们需要迅速，准确，毫不犹豫。拖延冲突只会延长宣传战。
当然，最好的办法是通过外交手段缓解与台湾方面的局势，不是依赖第三方的外交。当家庭陷入法律纠纷时，唯一的赢家是律师。

Portablela
What do you think would happen if such a situation came in regards to China and Taiwan?
Most Taiwanese (Esp. those Pro-independence) would immediately abandon ship and there is a remarkably high likelihood that the Taiwanese govt itself would flee. The separatists would scramble over each other for the remaining flights & ferries out.
And what are some things that you think China would and should do differently in the case they decide to send their military due to Western meddling in Taiwan or whatever?
If anything, China could stand to learn from the early stages of the invasion where just the shock factor & speed of the Russian Blitzkrieg alone got Ukrainian troops to put down their arms and surrender. As for the hardasses & Foreign mercenaries who refused to lay down arms, the Russians made mincemeat and examples out of them, successfully demoralizing enemy forces within and without.
It'll be the same case for Taiwan. It will be in China's best interests to launch simultaneous hard strikes to disable the Taiwanese weapon systems & arsenal targeting the Mainland first (Fujian for instance). At this stage, a full saturation attack followed by a blitzkrieg might be more preferable than a Blockade as a show of force. A blockade might in fact, embolden separatist forces and their Foreign backers who will view it as weakness.

如果中国(大陆)和台湾也出现(乌克兰)这种情况，你认为会发生什么？
大多数台湾人(尤其是那些支持独立的人)会立刻弃船，台湾(伪)政府自己逃跑的可能性非常高。分裂分子会争先恐后地争抢剩余的航班和渡轮。
如果中国因为西方干预台湾或者其他什么原因而决定派遣军队的话，你认为中国应该采取哪些不同的措施？
要说真有什么不同的话，那就是中国可以从早期的进攻阶段得到启发，当时仅仅是俄罗斯闪电战的冲击因素和速度就让乌克兰军队放下武器投降了。至于那些拒绝放下武器的硬汉和外国雇佣兵，俄罗斯人拿他们杀鸡儆猴，成功地挫败了内外敌军的士气。
对台湾也一样。最符合中国利益的做法是同时发动猛烈攻击，首先摧毁针对大陆(例如福建)的台湾武器系统和武器库。在这个阶段，全面饱和攻击后紧接着闪电战，这可能比封锁更适合作为武力的展示。实际上，封锁可能会助长分裂势力及其外国支持者的气焰，他们会认为封锁是软弱的表现。

lisiate
Make sure you've repatriated all your assets held in US dollars and US financial institutions.

确保你已经将持有的所有美元和美国金融机构的资产汇回国内。

xerotul
For conflict to happen over Taiwan, the separatists just have to declare independence or the United States parks some nukes on the island.
Tsai Ing-wen said, "We don't have a need to declare ourselves an independent state. We are an independent country already." Then, what is the name of her independent country? Let's look at the constitution of her independent country.
The National Assembly of the Republic of China, by virtue of the mandate received from the whole body of citizens, in accordance with the teachings bequeathed by Dr. Sun Yat-sen in founding the Republic of China, and in order to consolidate the authority of the State, safeguard the rights of the people, ensure social tranquility, and promote the welfare of the people, does hereby establish this Constitution, to be promulgated throughout the country for faithful and perpetual observance by all.
So Tsai Ing-wen's independent country is called China.
It's not that the separatists don't need to declare Taiwan independent; they can't. They don't have the US support. The KMT and military stand in opposition to an independent state for Taiwan. If the separatists try to declare Taiwan independent, then the DPP and KMT will end up in a civil war, eventually dissolution of both parties.
People's Republic of China Anti-Secession Law
Article 8 In the event that the "Taiwan independence" secessionist forces should act under any name or by any means to cause the fact of Taiwan's secession from China, or that major incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China should occur, or that possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted, the state shall employ non-peaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Beijing will not use military force first. The PLA will blockade the island. Civilian corridors will allow people to leave the island. Beijing can wait it out. After a year, the people still on the island won't be able to withstand the blockade. Military force will be used if the separatists don't surrender.

要想在台湾发生冲突，分裂分子只需要宣布独立，或者美国在岛上部署一些核武器。
蔡说“我们没有必要宣布独立。我们已经是一个独立的国家了”那么，她的“独立”国家叫什么名字？让我们看看她的“独立”国家的宪法。
“中华民国国民大会受全体国民之付托，依据孙中山先生创立中华民国之遗教，为巩固国权、保障民权、奠定社会安宁、增进人民福利，制定本宪法，颁行全国，永矢咸遵。”
所以蔡的“独立”国家叫中国。
这并不是说分裂分子不需要宣布台湾独立，而是他们做不到。他们没有美国的支持。国民党和军方反对台湾独立。如果分裂分子试图宣布台湾独立，那么民进党和国民党将以内战告终，最终导致双方解体。
中国反分裂国家法第八条
“‘台独’分裂势力以任何名义、任何方式造成台湾从中国分裂出去的事实，或者发生将会导致台湾从中国分裂出去的重大事变，或者和平统一的可能性完全丧失，国家得采取非和平方式及其他必要措施，捍卫国家主权和领土完整。”
北京不会首先动用武力。解放军将封锁这座岛。人道走廊将允许人们离开该岛。北京可以等。一年后，还在岛上的居民将无法承受封锁。如果分裂分子不投降，就会动用军事力量。

dankhorse25
An operation to take back an island is completely different from taking a country like Ukraine. I think come should focus on blockading the island. If after a week they don't surrender then start hitting infrastructure. Hard. Then the country usually collapses. Modern cities are uninhabitable without electricity, water and sanitation. During all this time hit military installations with drones and medium range missiles.

夺回一座岛屿的行动和夺回一个像乌克兰这样的国家完全不同。我认为应该把重点放在封锁岛屿上。如果一个星期后他们还不投降，就开始打击基础设施。严厉打击。然后这个地区通常会崩溃。没有电、水和卫生设施，现代城市就不适合居住了。在此期间，用无人机和中程导弹打击军事设施。

xerotul->dankhorse25
Russia didn't even do that to Ukraine. The PLA is not the US military.

俄罗斯甚至没有对乌克兰这样做。解放军不是美军。

zerodarkthirty69
Russia isn't getting 'rocked' if you consider that the sanctions have boomeranged on the West and sent their own economies into tailspin with record high inflation and high gas prices. I think the Kremlin expected Western sanctions, but did not anticipate the magnitude of them. The fact that they've backfired on the West shows how important Russia is to the international supply chain, and the arrogance of the West to think that it wouldn't have knockback effects on them. The West have also revealed the full measures they will take to countries that step out of line from their 'rules based' world order: full-on sanctions, Western businesses pulling out of your country, their media relentlessly attacking you, and the seizing of all your foreign reserves. China is no doubt watching this closely and making preparations in the event of a war over Taiwan.

如果你考虑到制裁已经对西方产生了反作用，并导致他们自己的经济陷入高通胀和高油价的混乱局面，那么就不能说俄罗斯受到“冲击”。我认为克里姆林宫预料到了西方的制裁，但没有预料到制裁的规模。事实上，他们对西方国家产生了反作用，这就显示出俄罗斯对国际供应链的重要性，以及西方国家认为俄罗斯不会对他们产生影响的傲慢态度。西方国家还透露了他们将对那些违背他们“基于规则”的世界秩序的国家采取的全面措施：全面制裁，西方企业撤出你们的国家，他们的媒体无情地攻击你们，以及没收你们所有的外汇储备。毫无疑问，中国正密切关注这一情况，并为台湾爆发战争做好准备。

Gomihyang
It shows they need to invade and destroy the governmeng quickly before westerners fund them and send supplies.

启发是他们需要在西方人给他们提供资金和物资之前，迅速摧毁其政府。

joepu
I think blockade is the most likely scenario. 10-15 years ago, the conventional wisdom was that PRC needed to win within a week to prevent US from intervening. That was because US military was still way stronger than China. That's no longer the case. If Ukraine is going also to serve as an example, it means US will not go to war with PRC over Taiwan either. PRC can afford to take it's time.
If it were me, I wouldn't go for a full blockade right away though. First do a limited blockade, trade goes on as normal but no shipments of weaponry and limited shipments of fuel. Set a deadline to negotiate terms of reunification.
Some terms I think PRC can offer:
Taiwan will continue to have autonomy in local government and economy, for as long as they wish.
All military bases to be turned over to the PLA. Taiwanese military units to be absorbed into a joint command under PLA.
Taiwan gives up all outlaying islands that it currently controls.
Draft and implement new national security law that covers the reunified China.
All TECO offices to be merged into the Chinese embassies in their respective host countries.
Transition to simplified Chinese.
No unnecessary restrictions to trade and travel between mainland and Taiwan.
If negotiations are not completed within the deadline then move on to a full blockade. If agreement still can't be reach then military force becomes an option. If that happens though, autonomy is off the table.

我认为封锁是最有可能的情况。10-15年前，人们普遍认为，中国需要在一周内取得胜利，以阻止美国干预。那是因为当时美国的军事力量仍然比中国强大得多。现在情况不同了。如果拿乌克兰当例子的话，这意味着美国也不会因为台湾问题和中国开战。中国可以慢慢来。
如果是我，我不会立刻全面封锁。首先进行有限的封锁，贸易照常进行，但不运送武器和有限的燃料。设定统一条款谈判的最后期限。
我认为中国可以提供以下条款：
· 台湾继续拥有地方政府和经济方面的自治，只要他们愿意。
· 所有军事基地都移交给解放军。台湾军事单位并入解放军的联合指挥部。
· 台湾放弃目前控制的所有外岛。
· 起草并实施涵盖统一后的中国的新国家安全法。
· 所有TECO办事处将并入各自所在国的中国大使馆。
· 过渡到简体中文。
· 对大陆和台湾之间的贸易和旅行没有不必要的限制。
如果谈判不能在最后期限内完成，那么就转向全面封锁。如果仍然不能达成协议，那么军事力量将成为一种选择。不过，如果这种情况发生了，自治就不在讨论之列了。

historyAnt_347
Mmmn I can try to give my best answer because I follow Chinese military developments quite a bit.
Is use the use of PGM and improved SEAD abilities. We have seen the Russian Air Force basically be non-existent for the conflict. That is because they haven’t had the ability to shut down Ukraine air defense. When Russian fighters try to get close to use dumb bombs or rockets they are shot down by Man Pads.
Importance of secure communications and recon. Part of the problem for Russia is they haven’t had secure communications and often use off the shelf radios. This has been easy for western forces to intercept and relay positional data back to Ukraine which has been a nightmare for Russia forces. Additionally, the importance of logistics and getting troops supplies has been important as well.
Counter drone. This one is obvious. Russia has been doing a better job lately by having close range air defense support it’s troops. But the also options in China’s inventory is jamming technology.
Finally, people have talked about overestimating Russian forces, but they never talk about underestimating Chinese forces. Given China’s defense budget is almost 2.5 half times bigger and Chinese forces are much more capable from a technological prospective with equipment like 5 gen aircraft, hypersonic missiles, drones, AI, and superior logistics. China could take Taiwan in 1-2 months. The big question would be if US would be willing to start a war over Taiwan. And with China increasing its nuclear arsenal and counter sanctions economic framework. IMO time isn’t on taiwans side

嗯...我可以尽量给出我最好的回答，因为我很关注中国的军事发展。
是使用 PGM(精确制导导弹) 和改进 SEAD(防空压制) 的能力。我们已经看到，在这场冲突中俄罗斯空军基本上不存在。那是因为他们没有能力瘫痪乌克兰的防空系统。当俄罗斯战斗机试图接近使用哑弹或火箭弹时，就被便携式防空系统击落了。
安全通信和侦察的重要性。俄罗斯的部分问题在于他们没有安全的通信，而且经常使用现成的无线电。对于西方军队来说，很容易拦截并将位置数据传回乌克兰，这对俄罗斯军队来说是一场噩梦。此外，后勤保障和部队补给也很重要。
反无人机。这个很明显。俄罗斯最近在近距离防空支援方面做得更好。但中国的清单里还有另一种选择：干扰技术。
最后，人们都在谈论高估俄罗斯的军队，但从来没有谈论过低估中国的军队。鉴于中国的国防预算几乎是俄罗斯的2.5倍，而且从技术角度来看，中国军队的能力要强得多，拥有5代战机、高超音速导弹、无人机、人工智能和优越的后勤保障。中国大陆可能会在1-2个月内拿下台湾。最大的问题是，美国是否愿意为台湾开战。随着中国增加其核武库和反制裁经济框架。我觉得，时间不在台湾这边。

BeefyMongol -> historyAnt_347
For the most part you're right but the thing with MANPADs shooting down RU planes is just overblown. There was a bunch of Ukr soldiers complaining about how the MANPAD sucks vs Russian planes bc they cant get a lock on the more modern jets Russia started to use as oppose to the SU25 the RU was using in the beginning of the war. Those were from the cold war era
Russia wasnt using its full arsenal and was pretty much getting rid of the old stock. They knew winning in Ukraine is just the start of the new hybrid war. Its far from over

你说的大部分是对的，但便携式防空系统击落俄罗斯飞机的事情被夸大了。有一群乌克兰士兵抱怨说对抗俄罗斯飞机的话，便携式防空系统很垃圾，他们无法锁定俄罗斯开始使用的更现代的战斗机，不是俄罗斯在战争开始时使用的苏25。那些都是冷战时期的。
俄罗斯并没有使用它的全部武器库，而且基本上是在处理旧库存。他们知道在乌克兰获胜只是新的混和战争的开始。还远没有结束

xerotul -> historyAnt_347
The big question would be if US would be willing to start a war over Taiwan.
How ridiculous if Japan used the pretense of defending Manchukuo against Chinese invasion?
With Taiwan, the United States is using the same excuse of defending Taiwan against Chinese invasion.

回复“最大的问题是，美国是否愿意为台湾开战”
想想如果日本打着“保卫”伪满洲国不受中国“入侵”的幌子，这有多荒唐？
对于台湾，美国正在使用同样的借口来“保卫”台湾免受中国(大陆)“入侵”。

Intruder16 -> historyAnt_347
You read fake news sources on Ukraine war.
Russia not using secure communications? That's actually Ukraine. Russian problem is that Ukraine is getting intel from the US, which is why early on Ukrainian artillery had some success. Over time Russians adapted their tactics assuming that the US is watching them. On top of that, current artillery war is minimizing the effect US intel has on war.
Furthermore, Russian Air Force is not non-existent in the conflict. Slava Z Telegram channel has plenty of videos of Russian airplanes and helicopters. Of course, Air Force is used carefully, because Ukraine actually has (although not so much anymore) good air defense, since it's basically older version of Russian (Soviet) air defense. And is resupplied from eastern European countries. On top of that, the West flooded Ukraine with anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons. It's not possible to shut that down completely, except with nukes.
I don't know who is overestimating Russian forces, but you are clearly underestimating them. Russia is fighting the entire NATO and more, with an estimated 10-12% of it's military, and is doing great. Russia also has many weapon systems more advanced than China, although China isn't far behind and has numbers on its side. The US is behind both in military terms, although maybe ahead of China if nukes are taken into account, but as long as China can nuke the US once, it's fine.

你看了乌克兰战争的假新闻。
俄罗斯没有使用安全通信？那其实是乌克兰。俄罗斯的问题是，乌克兰从美国那里得到了情报，这就是为什么乌克兰的炮兵在早期取得了一些成功。随着时间的推移，俄罗斯人调整了他们的战术，设想美国正在监视他们。最重要的是，当前的炮战正在最大限度地减少美国情报对战争的影响。
此外，俄罗斯空军在这场冲突中也并非不存在。Slava Z Telegram 频道有大量的俄罗斯飞机和直升机的视频。当然，空军的使用很谨慎，因为乌克兰实际上有很好的防空系统(尽管现在没那么好了)，它基本上是俄罗斯(苏联)防空系统的老版本。并且从东欧国家获得补给。除此之外，西方还向乌克兰输送了大量的反坦克和防空武器。不可能完全瘫痪它，除非用核武器。
我不知道有谁高估了俄罗斯军队，但你显然低估了他们。俄罗斯正在用大约10-12%的军事力量与整个北约甚至更多的国家作战，而且做得很好。俄罗斯还拥有许多比中国更先进的武器系统，尽管中国也不落后，而且有数量优势。美国在军事方面落后于这两国，尽管如果考虑到核武器的话，美国可能领先中国，但只要中国能核爆美国一次，就行了。

historyAnt_347 -> Intruder16
Mmmn I am not sure where you get your sources, but from an unbiased context it seems clear Russia has suffered heavier losses and progresses slower than initially planned. They went from a 3 direction attack of Kyiv, Donbas, and Odessa to just focusing on Donbas region.
In terms of Air Force you would expect more air attacks and joint operations moves, but Russia seems to be relying on fire support from artillery and MRLS launchers.
While you are right that the US and NATO has been providing arms, weapons, and advisors on the ground to help Ukraine. Russia has made some of its own mistakes.
Finally, I would say US overall is ahead of China and Russia. But isn’t ahead in every category. The big areas where US is a head is in stealth aircraft, intelligence gathering, and general mobility.
China is definitely catching up to the US in stealth, engine and overall capabilities

嗯... 我不知道你的消息来源是什么，但是从没有偏见的角度来看，很明显俄罗斯遭受了更大的损失，进展比最初计划的要慢。他们从基辅、顿巴斯和敖德萨三个方向的进攻，变成了只专注于顿巴斯地区。
在空军方面，你可能觉得会有更多的空袭和联合作战行动，但俄罗斯似乎依赖火炮和多管火箭发射器的火力支持。
虽然关于美国和北约一直在提供装备、武器和现场顾问帮助乌克兰方面你说得对，但俄罗斯自己也犯了一些错误。
最后，我会说美国总体上领先中国和俄罗斯。但并不是在所有领域都领先。美国在隐形战机、情报收集和普遍机动性方面是领先的。
中国很明显正在隐形、发动机和整体能力方面赶上美国。

Elles_D -> historyAnt_347
you are wrong on many points.
i have no idea how you come to the conclusion that it seems clear as well that they the progressed slower than initially planned. how do know you what was initially planned? you simply don't. don't you think a nation that has satellite surveillance capabilities only comparable to that of the USA, that they exactly knew what was happening in Ukraine and how the operation was to unfold? They knew exactly how the battlefield was to look. Ukraine built heavy fortifications for 8 years straight, along the entire western donbass. They have a general staff working on this 24-7. You just assume stuff based on no ground at all.
They went from a 3 direction attack of Kyiv, Donbas, and Odessa to just focusing on Donbas region.
what is that supposed to mean? liberating donbass is the primary goal, as stated from day 1 of the operation. obviously they didn't try to really attack or take over kiev. they made sure nobody from there could be relocated to support the east and the south. it was a part of shaping the battlefield as well as intimidation to get Kiev to come to a deal. anything saying or assuming that they wanted to attack or take kiev with a force of about 40k soldiers is nothing but retarded, and i mean that literally. only tv "experts" and "journalists" and ofc politicians spew that nonsense. and keep in mind that ukraine reports 1000 losses a day with 200-500 KIA . if they report those numbers, its highly likely that they are much higher. russia is out there to destroy an army, to demilitarize, the ones that dont surrender are just going to die. they destroy an army, they are not particularly on the hunt for land. Ukraine is now what? on it's 6th mobilization wave, while Russia not even uses 10% of its ground forces with a four week rotation for everyone. it's ukraine that keeps sending more and more soldiers into the grinder, they are effectively demilitarizing themselves.

你在很多方面都错了。
我不知道你是怎么得出这样的结论“很明显他们的进展比最初计划的要慢”，你怎么知道最初的计划是什么？你完全不知道。难道你不觉得一个卫星监控能力只有美国能相提并论的国家，能知道乌克兰发生了什么，以及将如何展开行动？他们很清楚战场的情况。乌克兰连续8年沿着整个西顿巴斯修建了重型防御工事。他们有一个全天候的总参谋部。你只是毫无根据地假设。
“他们从基辅、顿巴斯和敖德萨三个方向的进攻，变成了只专注于顿巴斯地区”
你这是什么意思？从行动的第一天起，解放顿巴斯就是首要目标。很明显，他们没有试图真正攻击或接管基辅。他们确保那里的人无法去支援东部和南部。这是战场塑造的一部分，也是让基辅达成协议的恐吓。任何声称或假设他们想用大约4万名士兵进攻或占领基辅的说法都是犯蠢。只有电视“专家”、“记者”以及政府官员才会说出这种蠢话。请记住，乌克兰报告每天折损1000人，200-500人战斗中阵亡。如果他们报告了这些数字的话，那实际数字很有可能要高得多。俄罗斯摧毁了那里的军队，实现去军事化，那些不投降的人只会死去。他们摧毁军队，而不是特意去占领土地。乌克兰现在是什么样子？在其第六次动员浪潮中，俄罗斯甚至没有使用10％的地面部队，每个人四个星期的轮换。是乌克兰不断派遣越来越多的士兵进入绞肉机，他们实际上是在让自己去军事化。

In terms of Air Force you would expect more air attacks and joint operations moves, but Russia seems to be relying on fire support from artillery and MRLS launchers.
maybe you should watch/read the daily two briefings or anything the russian mod releases. you don't seem to know how many air attacks they are actually doing. it's literally multiple every day and it's joint operations. there's literally hundreds videos of such attacks.
you get everything detailed daily, often with actual video footage not from a arma 3 video game. and as you can see, russias air forces are actually up against some of the most sophisticated anti air systems in the world (their own). it's important to keep that in mind.
While you are right that the US and NATO has been providing arms, weapons, and advisors on the ground to help Ukraine. Russia has made some of its own mistakes.
the grave mistake they made was to believe in anyone from the west. operation wise i don't see any big mistakes so far.
Finally, I would say US overall is ahead of China and Russia. But isn’t ahead in every category. The big areas where US is a head is in stealth aircraft, intelligence gathering, and general mobility.
i dont think US is ahead of russia in any important point. stealth is basically a useless point today, considering S-400 complexes counter all of it. the S-500 and S-550 even more so. US is behind light years in electronic warfare compared to russia and in terms of hyper sonic missiles or missiles in general. russia's anti air capabilities are hands down the best on the planet, especially the mobile ones, unmatched by anything.

[接上]“在空军方面，你可能觉得会有更多的空袭和联合作战行动，但俄罗斯似乎依赖火炮和多管火箭发射器的火力支持”
也许你应该看看/阅读每日两次的简报或者俄罗斯国防部发布的任何东西。你似乎不知道他们实际上进行了多少次空袭。实际上每天都有好几起，而且是联合行动。这种攻击的视频有几百段。
你每天都能得到详细的信息，通常是用真实的视频片段，而不是来自《武装突袭3》的游戏片段。正如你所看到的，俄罗斯空军实际上面对的是世界上最先进的防空系统(他们自己的)。记住这一点很重要。
“虽然关于美国和北约一直在提供装备、武器和现场顾问帮助乌克兰方面你说得对，但俄罗斯自己也犯了一些错误”
他们犯的严重错误就是相信任何来自西方的人。就行动而言，目前为止，我没有看到任何重大错误。
“最后，我会说美国总体上领先中国和俄罗斯。但并不是在所有领域都领先。美国在隐形战机、情报收集和普遍机动性方面是领先的”
我不认为美国在任何重要的领域上领先俄罗斯。考虑到S-400防空系统可以抵消所有这些，隐形在今天基本上是没有用的，对于S-500和S-550更是如此。与俄罗斯相比，美国在电子战和超音速导弹或常规导弹方面远远落后。毫无疑问，俄罗斯的防空能力是世界上最好的，尤其是机动防空能力，无以伦比。

TserriednichHuiGuo
It doesn't matter what western citizens think, they are like sheep being led to slaughter.
Besides China is the sole controller of its destiny, nothing the west can do about that.

西方公民怎么想并不重要，他们就像被牵着走向屠宰场的羊。
此外，中国是其命运的唯一掌控者，西方对此无能为力。