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文章原始标题:What are some lessons that China can learn from Russia's invasion of Ukraine in case the West provokes China into invading Taiwan?


I really dont know how China is militarily but from what Ive seen from the war is that tanks are only effective when its accompanied by supporting infantry or utilities (like AA radar and BUK) and sufficient forward scouting. The first few days of the war went pretty badly for Russia because they rushed into it and got the supply routes hit pretty badly but since they started using drones and the battle moved to a more open field they're having a ball right now.
My advice would be to use a bunch of drones and never let tank columns go unsupported. Also artillery and cruise missiles are the way to go which I know China has been building a whole bunch. Also fighter planes that specializes in low altitude assaults/support for precision strikes would be a real nice addition given the planes have sufficient counter measures against stingers. Russia practically have next to none of those and they had some troubles doing fast precision strikes in urban areas
Oh yeah forgot to mention this! Human shields, The Ukrainians were using their own people as human shields is why the Urban assaults were going so slow in Mariupol. Dont know if Taiwan will be the same but that shit is definitely in their playbook


jz187 -> BeefyMongol
Luckily China has invested far more heavily in drones than Russia. The main role of manned aviation in a Taiwan war would be to provide airborne radar, command, and deter foreign intervention.
Cheap recon/strike platforms like the CH4 is perfectly sufficient to hunt Taiwanese ground targets.
Taiwan is still preparing for a beach defense against amphibious assault. They don't realize what fighting a massive swarm of drones would entail.


Russia has so far done far better than was expected, when you consider the entire West has and all their lapdogs have piled on economic sanctions against Russia, who has overtaken North Korea as the most sanctioned country in the world. Russia is actually winning the economic war, as it is Western countries that are bearing the brunt of high inflation, economic recession, and the electoral fallout from it all.
Russia was always going to beat Ukraine in a military war. The West cannot directly intervene because Russia's nuclear arsenal takes care of that. It was more the economic war that was the unknown factor.
I hope China will not need to use force to reunite with Taiwan. But I'm not optimistic that force can be avoided. The US will keep provoking and instigating. When a red line is crossed, China will have no choice but to go to war, so it has to be ready for it.
The single most important lesson here is that the possession of a massive nuclear deterrent means A LOT in international relations. No one in the West DARE take on Russia in an actual battlefield - they'll only wage proxy war from a safe distance. Without the nukes, Russia does not have the manpower or economic ability to fight a protracted military war against the entire NATO.
China has long progressed beyond a stage where a nominal minimum deterrent of 300 nukes is sufficient to protect its interests. China is no longer an economically weak country others aren't interested in. China now has much greater interests to protect. The minimal credible deterrent no longer work - only a US-ending nuclear arsenal in the tens of thousands of warhead, capable of completely wiping out the entire US population (along with the rest of its puppets and stooges) will safeguard China's interests and ensure none of them DARE intervene, just as they DO NOT DARE go to war with Russia.


folatt -> SonOfTheDragon101
Nuclear arsenal? Lol.
Why use nukes when you can win conventially?
Russia doesn't need to cross oceans to protect itself.


SonOfTheDragon101 -> folatt
Nukes are the deterrent which PREVENTS the conventional war from even happening by ensuring that the US wouldn't even DARE try to intervene in a hot war of China. There is a clear reason why the US and NATO can't just engage in a hot war with Russia. And in an asymmetric conflict where Russia is far behind NATO in manpower, GDP, military budget, nukes are indisputably Russia's trump card why it can defy and tie down all of NATO by itself.


folatt -> SonOfTheDragon101
Russia is not going to fight in the oceans and can shoot anything down coming from the sky, which is where most of NATO's budget goes to.


SadArtemis -> folatt
A conventional war between China and the west would be a pyrrhic victory. Once you're losing tens of thousands of troops (and likely equal or far more so, civilians), considerable damage to infrastructure, and the full disruptions of war- even in the best case scenario, it would take blood and resources a sum that, if preventable, by all means should be avoided. It also bears far more risk of spilling into something far greater in scope.
Conventional war with the 5 Eyes and their puppets, for instance, would certainly see the US attempt to blockade and engage in piracy throughout the SCS and Indian ocean; this alone would result in economic and human losses, even in the best case scenario. It would also certainly see US attempts at mass bombing (and perhaps chemical warfare) of the mainland; while China would be capable of mitigating much of the damage, even in the best case scenario one has to expect a certain percentage of attacks to go through. Even if 99% of attacks fail, the damage would be significant- if there is one thing the US is no slouch in, it is bombing the hell out of countries.
The US itself would likely remain mostly untouched, in comparison- no matter how much their allies and puppets bleed. I think it's important to remember that the US absolutely would, and will, target civilian centers, specifically seek to destroy whatever maintains Chinese civilization (water and energy facilities, telecoms, hospitals, schools, even bio-warfare against crops would not be considered off the menu). They did so in Iraq, in Afghanistan, and in Yugoslavia among others in relatively recent history, or for bio-warfarea, further back in Vietnam and N. Korea.

中国与西方之间的常规战争将是一场代价高昂的胜利。一旦你失去了数以万计的军队(平民的损失可能相当或更多) ,基础设施遭到严重破坏,以及战争全面混乱——即使在最好的情况下,这也需要大量的鲜血和资源,如果可以避免的话,应该尽力避免。这情况还承担着更大的风险,可能波及到更大的范围。

First, it's important that we recognize that, for as much as some people say, Taiwan is not and never will be, a "Ukraine". If you want to send material aid (wether civilian or military) to Ukraine, you cross a border, which is protect by NATO's Article 5. In the case of Taiwan, you need to cross an entire ocean, that offers absolutly no diplomatic protection when "en route".
China will also have, for all intents and purpose, air dominance from day one, or at least, it won't let Taiwan fighters take-off. If Japan wants to get some, the only way of getting into Taiwanese airspace is using F-15J's or F-35's, in which case both need external fuel tanks, which will light them on radars like a christmas tree.
And the most important part of Chinese defense will be "Area Deniabilty" that extends throughout the entire area of operations, in which US aircraft carriers will need to traverse if they are to help in any capacity, Taiwan.
All of this only happens though if the US shoots the first shot, given that time is on the PRC side. As the empire starts to crumble, the benefits of being its little proxy, will start disappering.
It's important to remember also, that one of the reasons that Ukraine got to the point that it is now, is caused by the EU and the US exploiting old wounds and an overall poor society.
They are barely holding, after sanctioning Russia, I very much doubt they could keep functioning properly if they tried the same thing with China.

无论出于何种意图和目的,中国都将从第一天起就拥有空中优势,或者至少不会让台湾战斗机起飞。如果日本想要做一些事,进入台湾“领空”的唯一途径就是使用 F-15J 或 F-35,在这种情况下,它们都需要外部燃料箱,这样的话,它们在雷达上就会像圣诞树那样明亮。

The PLA doesn't need to intervene in Taiwan. PRC's economy is growing while US is struggling because of COVID. PRC is becoming the major economic partner throughout all of Asia because US has spread itself too thin with all its military bases and can't offer anyone anything. In 20-30 years, the PRC will be miles ahead of the US, and Taiwanese authorities will happily soften relations with the mainland because the US will have nothing to offer. Especially as climate crisis gets worse, Taiwan needs infrastructure, it has a water crisis, and energy crisis.


Taiwan is an island, and it is not self-sufficient for food or energy. A naval blockade, no-fly zone, and bombing the ports and power plants should be all it takes to force a surrender within a year. No costly and bloody amphibious would be necessary, and even if undertaken, should only be done after a year or so of blockade, to ensure the defenders are more concerned with finding some scraps to eat, than with fighting.
Bonus points for cutting any underwater communications cables and bombing anything on the island that emits a radio wave, so that the DPP cannot engage in any media theatrics to rally overseas support or attempt to coordinate an escape.


If they are going to use force; they need to do it quick; precise, and without hesitation. Dragging on a conflict just prolongs the propaganda warfare.
Of course the best thing to do is diplomatically defuse the situation with the Taiwan side and not to depend on the diplomacy through a third-party intermediary. When family gets into a legal dispute; the only winners are the lawyers.


What do you think would happen if such a situation came in regards to China and Taiwan?
Most Taiwanese (Esp. those Pro-independence) would immediately abandon ship and there is a remarkably high likelihood that the Taiwanese govt itself would flee. The separatists would scramble over each other for the remaining flights & ferries out.
And what are some things that you think China would and should do differently in the case they decide to send their military due to Western meddling in Taiwan or whatever?
If anything, China could stand to learn from the early stages of the invasion where just the shock factor & speed of the Russian Blitzkrieg alone got Ukrainian troops to put down their arms and surrender. As for the hardasses & Foreign mercenaries who refused to lay down arms, the Russians made mincemeat and examples out of them, successfully demoralizing enemy forces within and without.
It'll be the same case for Taiwan. It will be in China's best interests to launch simultaneous hard strikes to disable the Taiwanese weapon systems & arsenal targeting the Mainland first (Fujian for instance). At this stage, a full saturation attack followed by a blitzkrieg might be more preferable than a Blockade as a show of force. A blockade might in fact, embolden separatist forces and their Foreign backers who will view it as weakness.


Make sure you've repatriated all your assets held in US dollars and US financial institutions.


For conflict to happen over Taiwan, the separatists just have to declare independence or the United States parks some nukes on the island.
Tsai Ing-wen said, "We don't have a need to declare ourselves an independent state. We are an independent country already." Then, what is the name of her independent country? Let's look at the constitution of her independent country.
The National Assembly of the Republic of China, by virtue of the mandate received from the whole body of citizens, in accordance with the teachings bequeathed by Dr. Sun Yat-sen in founding the Republic of China, and in order to consolidate the authority of the State, safeguard the rights of the people, ensure social tranquility, and promote the welfare of the people, does hereby establish this Constitution, to be promulgated throughout the country for faithful and perpetual observance by all.
So Tsai Ing-wen's independent country is called China.
It's not that the separatists don't need to declare Taiwan independent; they can't. They don't have the US support. The KMT and military stand in opposition to an independent state for Taiwan. If the separatists try to declare Taiwan independent, then the DPP and KMT will end up in a civil war, eventually dissolution of both parties.
People's Republic of China Anti-Secession Law
Article 8 In the event that the "Taiwan independence" secessionist forces should act under any name or by any means to cause the fact of Taiwan's secession from China, or that major incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China should occur, or that possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted, the state shall employ non-peaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Beijing will not use military force first. The PLA will blockade the island. Civilian corridors will allow people to leave the island. Beijing can wait it out. After a year, the people still on the island won't be able to withstand the blockade. Military force will be used if the separatists don't surrender.


An operation to take back an island is completely different from taking a country like Ukraine. I think come should focus on blockading the island. If after a week they don't surrender then start hitting infrastructure. Hard. Then the country usually collapses. Modern cities are uninhabitable without electricity, water and sanitation. During all this time hit military installations with drones and medium range missiles.


Russia didn't even do that to Ukraine. The PLA is not the US military.


Russia isn't getting 'rocked' if you consider that the sanctions have boomeranged on the West and sent their own economies into tailspin with record high inflation and high gas prices. I think the Kremlin expected Western sanctions, but did not anticipate the magnitude of them. The fact that they've backfired on the West shows how important Russia is to the international supply chain, and the arrogance of the West to think that it wouldn't have knockback effects on them. The West have also revealed the full measures they will take to countries that step out of line from their 'rules based' world order: full-on sanctions, Western businesses pulling out of your country, their media relentlessly attacking you, and the seizing of all your foreign reserves. China is no doubt watching this closely and making preparations in the event of a war over Taiwan.


It shows they need to invade and destroy the governmeng quickly before westerners fund them and send supplies.


I think blockade is the most likely scenario. 10-15 years ago, the conventional wisdom was that PRC needed to win within a week to prevent US from intervening. That was because US military was still way stronger than China. That's no longer the case. If Ukraine is going also to serve as an example, it means US will not go to war with PRC over Taiwan either. PRC can afford to take it's time.
If it were me, I wouldn't go for a full blockade right away though. First do a limited blockade, trade goes on as normal but no shipments of weaponry and limited shipments of fuel. Set a deadline to negotiate terms of reunification.
Some terms I think PRC can offer:
Taiwan will continue to have autonomy in local government and economy, for as long as they wish.
All military bases to be turned over to the PLA. Taiwanese military units to be absorbed into a joint command under PLA.
Taiwan gives up all outlaying islands that it currently controls.
Draft and implement new national security law that covers the reunified China.
All TECO offices to be merged into the Chinese embassies in their respective host countries.
Transition to simplified Chinese.
No unnecessary restrictions to trade and travel between mainland and Taiwan.
If negotiations are not completed within the deadline then move on to a full blockade. If agreement still can't be reach then military force becomes an option. If that happens though, autonomy is off the table.

· 台湾继续拥有地方政府和经济方面的自治,只要他们愿意。
· 所有军事基地都移交给解放军。台湾军事单位并入解放军的联合指挥部。
· 台湾放弃目前控制的所有外岛。
· 起草并实施涵盖统一后的中国的新国家安全法。
· 所有TECO办事处将并入各自所在国的中国大使馆。
· 过渡到简体中文。
· 对大陆和台湾之间的贸易和旅行没有不必要的限制。

Mmmn I can try to give my best answer because I follow Chinese military developments quite a bit.
Is use the use of PGM and improved SEAD abilities. We have seen the Russian Air Force basically be non-existent for the conflict. That is because they haven’t had the ability to shut down Ukraine air defense. When Russian fighters try to get close to use dumb bombs or rockets they are shot down by Man Pads.
Importance of secure communications and recon. Part of the problem for Russia is they haven’t had secure communications and often use off the shelf radios. This has been easy for western forces to intercept and relay positional data back to Ukraine which has been a nightmare for Russia forces. Additionally, the importance of logistics and getting troops supplies has been important as well.
Counter drone. This one is obvious. Russia has been doing a better job lately by having close range air defense support it’s troops. But the also options in China’s inventory is jamming technology.
Finally, people have talked about overestimating Russian forces, but they never talk about underestimating Chinese forces. Given China’s defense budget is almost 2.5 half times bigger and Chinese forces are much more capable from a technological prospective with equipment like 5 gen aircraft, hypersonic missiles, drones, AI, and superior logistics. China could take Taiwan in 1-2 months. The big question would be if US would be willing to start a war over Taiwan. And with China increasing its nuclear arsenal and counter sanctions economic framework. IMO time isn’t on taiwans side

是使用 PGM(精确制导导弹) 和改进 SEAD(防空压制) 的能力。我们已经看到,在这场冲突中俄罗斯空军基本上不存在。那是因为他们没有能力瘫痪乌克兰的防空系统。当俄罗斯战斗机试图接近使用哑弹或火箭弹时,就被便携式防空系统击落了。

BeefyMongol -> historyAnt_347
For the most part you're right but the thing with MANPADs shooting down RU planes is just overblown. There was a bunch of Ukr soldiers complaining about how the MANPAD sucks vs Russian planes bc they cant get a lock on the more modern jets Russia started to use as oppose to the SU25 the RU was using in the beginning of the war. Those were from the cold war era
Russia wasnt using its full arsenal and was pretty much getting rid of the old stock. They knew winning in Ukraine is just the start of the new hybrid war. Its far from over


xerotul -> historyAnt_347
The big question would be if US would be willing to start a war over Taiwan.
How ridiculous if Japan used the pretense of defending Manchukuo against Chinese invasion?
With Taiwan, the United States is using the same excuse of defending Taiwan against Chinese invasion.


Intruder16 -> historyAnt_347
You read fake news sources on Ukraine war.
Russia not using secure communications? That's actually Ukraine. Russian problem is that Ukraine is getting intel from the US, which is why early on Ukrainian artillery had some success. Over time Russians adapted their tactics assuming that the US is watching them. On top of that, current artillery war is minimizing the effect US intel has on war.
Furthermore, Russian Air Force is not non-existent in the conflict. Slava Z Telegram channel has plenty of videos of Russian airplanes and helicopters. Of course, Air Force is used carefully, because Ukraine actually has (although not so much anymore) good air defense, since it's basically older version of Russian (Soviet) air defense. And is resupplied from eastern European countries. On top of that, the West flooded Ukraine with anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons. It's not possible to shut that down completely, except with nukes.
I don't know who is overestimating Russian forces, but you are clearly underestimating them. Russia is fighting the entire NATO and more, with an estimated 10-12% of it's military, and is doing great. Russia also has many weapon systems more advanced than China, although China isn't far behind and has numbers on its side. The US is behind both in military terms, although maybe ahead of China if nukes are taken into account, but as long as China can nuke the US once, it's fine.

此外,俄罗斯空军在这场冲突中也并非不存在。Slava Z Telegram 频道有大量的俄罗斯飞机和直升机的视频。当然,空军的使用很谨慎,因为乌克兰实际上有很好的防空系统(尽管现在没那么好了),它基本上是俄罗斯(苏联)防空系统的老版本。并且从东欧国家获得补给。除此之外,西方还向乌克兰输送了大量的反坦克和防空武器。不可能完全瘫痪它,除非用核武器。

historyAnt_347 -> Intruder16
Mmmn I am not sure where you get your sources, but from an unbiased context it seems clear Russia has suffered heavier losses and progresses slower than initially planned. They went from a 3 direction attack of Kyiv, Donbas, and Odessa to just focusing on Donbas region.
In terms of Air Force you would expect more air attacks and joint operations moves, but Russia seems to be relying on fire support from artillery and MRLS launchers.
While you are right that the US and NATO has been providing arms, weapons, and advisors on the ground to help Ukraine. Russia has made some of its own mistakes.
Finally, I would say US overall is ahead of China and Russia. But isn’t ahead in every category. The big areas where US is a head is in stealth aircraft, intelligence gathering, and general mobility.
China is definitely catching up to the US in stealth, engine and overall capabilities

嗯... 我不知道你的消息来源是什么,但是从没有偏见的角度来看,很明显俄罗斯遭受了更大的损失,进展比最初计划的要慢。他们从基辅、顿巴斯和敖德萨三个方向的进攻,变成了只专注于顿巴斯地区。

Elles_D -> historyAnt_347
you are wrong on many points.
i have no idea how you come to the conclusion that it seems clear as well that they the progressed slower than initially planned. how do know you what was initially planned? you simply don't. don't you think a nation that has satellite surveillance capabilities only comparable to that of the USA, that they exactly knew what was happening in Ukraine and how the operation was to unfold? They knew exactly how the battlefield was to look. Ukraine built heavy fortifications for 8 years straight, along the entire western donbass. They have a general staff working on this 24-7. You just assume stuff based on no ground at all.
They went from a 3 direction attack of Kyiv, Donbas, and Odessa to just focusing on Donbas region.
what is that supposed to mean? liberating donbass is the primary goal, as stated from day 1 of the operation. obviously they didn't try to really attack or take over kiev. they made sure nobody from there could be relocated to support the east and the south. it was a part of shaping the battlefield as well as intimidation to get Kiev to come to a deal. anything saying or assuming that they wanted to attack or take kiev with a force of about 40k soldiers is nothing but retarded, and i mean that literally. only tv "experts" and "journalists" and ofc politicians spew that nonsense. and keep in mind that ukraine reports 1000 losses a day with 200-500 KIA . if they report those numbers, its highly likely that they are much higher. russia is out there to destroy an army, to demilitarize, the ones that dont surrender are just going to die. they destroy an army, they are not particularly on the hunt for land. Ukraine is now what? on it's 6th mobilization wave, while Russia not even uses 10% of its ground forces with a four week rotation for everyone. it's ukraine that keeps sending more and more soldiers into the grinder, they are effectively demilitarizing themselves.


In terms of Air Force you would expect more air attacks and joint operations moves, but Russia seems to be relying on fire support from artillery and MRLS launchers.
maybe you should watch/read the daily two briefings or anything the russian mod releases. you don't seem to know how many air attacks they are actually doing. it's literally multiple every day and it's joint operations. there's literally hundreds videos of such attacks.
you get everything detailed daily, often with actual video footage not from a arma 3 video game. and as you can see, russias air forces are actually up against some of the most sophisticated anti air systems in the world (their own). it's important to keep that in mind.
While you are right that the US and NATO has been providing arms, weapons, and advisors on the ground to help Ukraine. Russia has made some of its own mistakes.
the grave mistake they made was to believe in anyone from the west. operation wise i don't see any big mistakes so far.
Finally, I would say US overall is ahead of China and Russia. But isn’t ahead in every category. The big areas where US is a head is in stealth aircraft, intelligence gathering, and general mobility.
i dont think US is ahead of russia in any important point. stealth is basically a useless point today, considering S-400 complexes counter all of it. the S-500 and S-550 even more so. US is behind light years in electronic warfare compared to russia and in terms of hyper sonic missiles or missiles in general. russia's anti air capabilities are hands down the best on the planet, especially the mobile ones, unmatched by anything.


It doesn't matter what western citizens think, they are like sheep being led to slaughter.
Besides China is the sole controller of its destiny, nothing the west can do about that.