Man china hit the jackpot with this shit show.
bobbing-downstream -> hairynutzndik
My thoughts exactly—China is the big winner here. China gets to help Russia out in a time of need in exchange for putting Russia under its thumb via loaning them RMB, scooping up a bunch of Russian assets at 50% off, and (likely) locking in some strategic belt & road options. Almost every other country is getting drained by this invasion while China gets stronger simply by doing nothing. The longer it lasts the better for China.
_MojoCaesar -> bobbing-downstream
It’s almost.. as if …this was the plan all along.
这几乎... 就像... 一直以来的计划。
LeftDave -> bobbing-downstream
At this rate I wouldn't be surprised if China outright annexes Siberia citing a collapse of the Russian state and needing to protect itself from spillover violence.
arbiter12 -> LeftDave
You guys really don't understand china....
They had 5000years to conquer the whole of asia and didn't. The chinese goal is more power, not more territory. This isn't an EU4 map painting competition...
If you conquer a place, you need to pay for occupying it and ransack it fast enough to make the occupation worthwhile. If you CONTROL a place, it does business with you, creates profit, and pays for itself.
Who the fuck wants to annex Siberia when you can get the oil/mining concession without stepping there....?
LeftDave -> arbiter12
They had 5000years to conquer the whole of asia and
Did. China was everything from Afghanistan to the Pacific and Mongolia to Indonesia at it's height.
FarrisAT -> LeftDave
Ummm not really
China at it's peak ruled by Han Chinese was mid-Tang when it controlled much of it's modern territory including Korea and Vietnam and some of Mongolia.
Qing controlled more, but it's grip on Vietnam and Korea was far looser.
Puzzleheaded-Ad319 -> arbiter12
Do you really understand China? They DID want to conquer the whole Asia but they COULN’T because they were so suck and they had civil war all the time. Look at the history again. During their peak time, they conquered a lot. But yeah, I don’t think they want to annex Siberia as well
612k -> LeftDave
If anything I think they'd vassalize Siberia instead of annexing it, but I wouldn't be shocked if they took some of Russia's territory. Russia's entire military is engaged in the west, there is literally nothing Putin could do about it other than start a nuclear war.
LeftDave -> 612k
They won't invade outright. That's be bad for their business deals with the West. They 'can't' offer direct aid to Russia as that'd violate sanctions. So they'll prop up the economy in ways that are under Chinese control. Tying debit and credit to China after MasterCard and Visa pulled out is step 1. Next they'll buyout struggling firms to 'save jobs'. They'll keep on like this, increasing control as time goes on. It'll be a Chinese vassal.
americansherlock201 -> bobbing-downstream
The one thing China loses here though is Taiwan. They are seeing how the world is reacting to Russia invading Ukrainian under and seeing how poorly it is working out for Russia. This likely puts any thoughts of making a move on Taiwan on ice for awhile
arlitoma -> americansherlock201
The world boycotted Russia because it's not a huge sacrifice. The world won't do shit to China
FINALAVENUE -> arlitoma
Not a huge sacrifice?
Russia supplies 60% of German gas needs and 10% of global needs, I think that’s a rather large sacrifice whose repercussions will start to show soon
americansherlock201 -> arlitoma
Russia spent the last 20 years building economic ties to the west thinking it would insulate them from retaliation in the event of attacking a neighboring nation. The west basically said fuck you and cut all ties within a week.
China has even more to lose economically if the west did the same. And seeing people actually defend their home and democracy will give them pause. They will continue their long game
FarrisAT -> americansherlock201
China invading Taiwan would make this Ukraine war look like a joke.
You'd have the entire Chinese armada of 600+ warships, 2000+ aircraft, 40,000 missiles, 2.5 million soldiers. All attacking at once in the hopes of taking Taiwan before the USA and Japan could intervene
ric2b -> americansherlock201
Not so sure about that. The world seems to be more dependent on oil and gas
Guess who controls or has influence over most of the oil and gas production in the world. Hint: It's not Russia.
They will use their own banking system and it’s that simple
Yes, because they have no other option.
hopefultraveller1 -> ric2b
Guess who controls or has influence over most of the oil and gas production in the world. Hint: It's not Russia.
Wrong. Russia and Saudi Arabia are the largest players in O&G with the lowest breakevens. Russia actually has a lower breakeven price to balance their budge than the Sauds. Try again.
ric2b -> hopefultraveller1
The US produces more O&G than Russia and the Saudi's are much closer to the US than Russia, you try again.
It's more like the entire Western world being outsmarted by the Chinese.
They thought they put a sanction on Russia, but they just sanctioned themselves...
deep_in_stonks -> No_Dragonfly2672
Because sanctions gone from practical to emotional and irrational
FruxyFriday -> No_Dragonfly2672
How stupid is the western world?
What we are seeing now is the beginning of the decade long process of the USD losing reserve currency status.
no_simpsons -> FruxyFriday
Yup. Russia may have shot themselves in the foot, but at least they are allied with China. This is the turning point.
kontekisuto -> no_simpsons
He just had no other choice. Russia is now a Chinese vassal state. Basically.
China has now built a second economic block that could see this work independent of the US sphere of influence.
We now have BRICS countries and the Chinese belt and road to contend with, and that opens up a huge part of the world market to an alternative system.
There is no doubt we are encouraging other countries to develop a competitor financial system to the west.
tcwtcw -> Law_And_Politics
Yes. Because China hasn’t really thought about this until now right?
Law_And_Politics -> tcwtcw
They've been thinking about it since 2014 at least.
The damage to SWIFT has been done. Once everything is set up, Russia and its partners (Russia, China, Iran, India, UAE, etc.) will start to demand payment for Oil/Oil Products via their SWIFT alternative and eventually in a currency other than USD.
tragiktimes -> TDMarsh
I don't see India putting themselves in a situation where there economically reliant on China.
pepsirichard62 -> tragiktimes
China is constantly threatening war on India. I don’t know why thinks this situation automatically makes them buddies.
U2Brockus -> TDMarsh
Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea, Syria, OPEC. All sanctioned and sanction prone countries will trade there
TDMarsh -> U2Brockus
Yes, it wont be overnight but it will be significant. The settlement currency they choose is what I'm most curious about.
Kimishiranai39 -> TDMarsh
Probably CNY, gold or currency swaps. China is probably their largest trading partner by volume, they supply the Chinese economy with commodities and China supplies them with manufactured goods.
jayteerp -> TDMarsh
The only way that can kill the USD is if one those currencies is backed by some kind of commodity. E.g. gold
fishy247 -> jayteerp
Uhhhhh, is oil not a commodity anymore?
yogeshkumar4 -> jayteerp
Gold backed currencies are off the table, it greatly restricts economic expansion. We need something better
Fantastic-Alps4335 -> yogeshkumar4
But what is better than gold?
Tankcue -> Fantastic-Alps4335
people seem to believe bitcoin but they are brainwashed
hairynutzndik -> U2Brockus
It’s the haves vs the have nots. But let’s be real, Saudi essentially runs opec and needs the US to get their goals accomplished. This effectively neuters all other members. China is the only threat here and it’s gonna eat up all those other bum countries. Then they will turn on china. It’ll be interesting to see the dynamics
这是富人 vs 穷人的局面。但让我们现实一点吧，沙特实际上是石油输出国组织的运营国，需要美国来实现他们的目标。这有效地隔离了所有其他成员。中国是这里唯一的威胁，它会吞噬所有其他无赖国家。然后他们就会把矛头指向中国。看到这个动态会很有趣的。
gimme_pineapple -> hairynutzndik
I don't know much about this, but I recently saw a report that said the US has been losing influence with the Saudis. IIRC the issue was that Joe Biden used some anti-Saudi rhetoric during the campaign and has since been snubbing MBS (over moral issues, I think). MBS said something along the lines of (we don't lecture them and they shouldn't lecture us", which I think is diplomat-speak for "go fuck yourself". And the US also asked the Saudis to increase their oil exports during this crisis, but the Saudis refused.
fishy247 -> gimme_pineapple
Don’t kid yourself, SA is on a leash. They know that they’ll get a heavy dose of FREEDOM AND DEMOCRACY like their neighbors if they ever actually jeopardize the status of the petrodollar.
gimme_pineapple -> fishy247
Yeah, probably. But the US has been a lot less aggressive recently than it ever was. I think that's because of the social media. But the CIA probably has a playbook somewhere on discretely uprooting foreign governments, so who knows.
This war has actually made the power come out in the open (russia, china, north korea.... then probably iran, Syria, cuba, Venezuela, afghan)
lest remember: In 2015 the UnionPay overtook Visa and Mastercard in total value of payments made by customers and became the largest card payment processing organization (debit and credit cards combined) in the world surpassing the two.
Globally, UnionPay’s contactless payment is accepted at 29 million merchant point-of-sale terminals in 93 markets and UnionPay QR Code payment is accepted at 31 million merchants in 45 countries and regions, according to data put forth in the press release.
别忘了：2015年，银联在客户支付总额上超过了 Visa 和万事达卡，成为世界上最大的卡支付处理机构(借记卡和信用卡加起来) ，超过了这两家机构。
HisWife00000 -> Maximum_Radio_1971
We might live to regret banning them from Swift. China is on a crusade to replace the US as the world's economic power.
Im_A_MechanicalMan -> HisWife00000
Yep. The entire approach of attempting to suffocate Russia economically was a big mistake for the long term. It empowers China even more and is further bonding alliances between countries hostile to the West.
Then 30 years of the West doing business growing China into the force it has become was a worse mistake. Profit/Greed above all is starting to haunt us.
adiamondintheruff -> Im_A_MechanicalMan
It's our leaders that have these greedy errors, the people will pay the cost, not the responsible ones.
hhzziivv -> Im_A_MechanicalMan
Not only that, it changes how the world works fundamentally when the permanent neutral Swiss picked a side. That's a bad move imo.
pigsgetfathogsdie -> Im_A_MechanicalMan
Russia GDP = Texas GDP
Economically, Russia has a micropeen.
俄罗斯 GDP = 德克萨斯州 GDP
Awesome____Sauce -> pigsgetfathogsdie
who the fuck cares about GDP? Russia is one of the world's biggest exporters of natural resources which is 100 times more important than "gdp"
LouBricant -> Awesome____Sauce
Russia has no economy though. 40% of their economy they dig up from the ground. They’re increasingly irrelevant. China can have them.
Im_A_MechanicalMan -> LouBricant
I suspect that's all Russia needs as far as China is concerned. Russia has tons of mineral resources that China can buy for cheap while also having the largest active arsenal of nuclear warheads ready. It's win-win for China to have influence over Russia through deep economic ties.
HisWife00000 -> Im_A_MechanicalMan
So correct!!! Our leaders had to have known we'd regret profiting from cheaply made Chinese goods. I mean, I could see it years ago.
Maximum_Radio_1971 -> HisWife00000
banning russia from Swift was a mistake. now the whole of asia and its 50% of the world population will trade under Chinese systems.
olearygreen -> Maximum_Radio_1971
Right… because a country like India would much rather deal with Chinese systems than Western. Why exactly?
Of course they will try using new things. But to declare the death if SWIFT is a bit premature.
You guys do realize the SWIFT ban doesn’t apply to energy transactions right?
你们知道 SWIFT 的禁令不适用于能源交易吧？
mrs_dalloway -> EstateAlternative416
Right. I heard European oil purchases from Russia are permitted—everything else isn’t.
And the U.S. formally created its next much needed eternal enemy bloc
crystalpeaks25 -> U2Brockus
this is the US way.
fishy247 -> crystalpeaks25
Can’t have a superhero without a super villain.
TheIncredibleWalrus -> fishy247
It's the only comic where everyone is the villain tbh.
Roulettebellagio -> U2Brockus
Government always need enemy to keep people disciplined and justify their spendings on army.
Llanite -> Roulettebellagio
57% of silicon workers are Asian, 2 third of who are foreign. They will all be gone if a real economic war started with China or India.
Oh shit! New economic sphere emerging!
pcbuilder1907 -> rlsimonton3
China has next to no native oil reserves, unlike the United States, which could supply itself and much of the Western world.
For China, this is ultimately about oil as one carrier battle group right now could cut China off from 90% of it's oil supply.
DeliriousPrecarious -> pcbuilder1907
If Russian oil becomes sanctioned then you have a fractured market with Russian oil trading at a discount due to reduced demand.
pcbuilder1907 -> DeliriousPrecarious
The Biden administration is not going to sanction China for buying Russian oil.
That was clear after they lifted some Trump era tariffs for nothing in return.
I think we're seeing the rise of a Russo-Chinese power, where international trade will be settled in a basket of domestic currencies instead of the dollar. Ofcourse, Russia will likely go through a transition period of an economic collapse, rampant criminalism, population flight and a change of leadership, but with generational sanctions they've been left permanently in the Chinese orbit.
olearygreen -> Whistling_Birds
I’ve got news for you. People trade in USD because it is stable. Nobody will trade in “local currencies” internationally if your currency is the Ruble and nosedives when you invade a country.
Whistling_Birds -> olearygreen
That sounds all well and good, until you realize Russia and China already trade in each other's respective currencies.
olearygreen -> Whistling_Birds
I would love to see those contracts. There is no way there are a significant amount of long term contracts in Rubles. Or they have hedged the FX rate which comes at an additional cost and hampers trade (which us why the USD is commonly used)
China has a stable currency though. So that doesn’t surprise me too much.
So our retards managed to make the Chinese even richer. Great!
Y'all are circle-jerking hard over the slightest hint of the West's downturn of dominance.
You have to know Russia knew that this was on the table as a possibility. They already have deals in place to mitigate a lot of our sanctions.
The fact that the portion of a nation’s wealth denominated in US dollars - and access to the swift system - can be frozen at any time is now on every country’s radar. They will seek a non-dollar answer. IMO, the US just punched themselves in the cunt. Dollar hegemony is over
Russia vs NATO
WINNER is China lol
俄罗斯 vs 北约
The world still can ban transactions came from russia. The world still can block any transactions that is made by a russian.
LETSGETSCHWIFTY -> BBIGPROGAMC
Step 1: make in Russia
Step 2: mail to China
Step 3: mail to America
Not the first time and not the last time retarded sanctions do nothing but add extra delivery fees
I buy from China. When trump was president they just sent my shit to Vietnam first. It is what it is.
Whenever you shake hands with chinese keep in mind they always scheme behind your back.
No-Client6486 -> Roshann_Gupta
So euro are fucked mid to long term? Jesus I don't know where to invest now
-Pvt_Ganso -> lordofming-rises
The old world is fucked, invest on the new world. Latin America is gonna start taking a lot of outsourcing on the near future.
Llanite -> lordofming-rises
Short, mid and long term.
Germany is top 5 economy due to them being evaluated in Euro. When it is reevaluated to take into account local purchasing power (GDP PPP), they're about the same size as Russia.
I need to know what i have to buy now.
colonelgoatfucker -> chilibowXZ
Ammo, seeds, junk silver. Don't forget toilet paper.
USA pushing the world to embrace China and their financial system at an even faster rate than before. Congrats, they played themselves.
Yes, we are. That, and the credit card payment systems. By putting themselves at the mercy of political correctness and virtue signalling SWIFT, Visa and Mastercard have shown that they aren't fit as global payment instruments.
It's fashionable being stupid, but this is the price you pay for being stupid.
I own shares of both Visa and Mastercard and I will keep them (for now), as on a cooler, purely business-based analysis the long-term benefits I expect from them should still vastly exceed the damage they are doing to themselves. Still, this is a worrying development.
Companies exist to conduct businesses, not to take part in political controversies. They have no popular mandate to do that, and they haven't asked their shareholder whether they should take sides. Mind my words: the day will come when these powerful multinationals will use their power in a way *you don't like*.
Plus, there is the political side of this. At the moment, we aren't there. But the time will come when the assets of the companies you are invested in are destroyed because your company tried to play unelected politician.
我持有 Visa 和万事达卡的股票，我会继续持有这些股票(暂时)，因为从更冷静、纯粹的商业分析来看，我预计它们带来的长期利益仍应该远远超过它们对自己造成的损害。不过，这趋势仍然让人担忧。
Banning Russia from SWIFT set up a precidence that any nation is prone to sudden cutoff from International financial community. VISA & Mastercard might never be able to operate in russia/China and soon India might ban them too. Huge stupidity from Biden.
You retards if Russia and China leave from Swift we are fucked...
MinimumCat123 -> ccrrr2
Why would China leave SWIFT if they do the majority of their business with Countries that use SWIFT?
如果中国的大部分业务都是与使用 SWIFT 的国家打交道，那么它为什么要离开 SWIFT 呢？
Zubba776 -> ccrrr2
Nah. You'll just end up with two competing blocks, where the western block is still the dominant player through a preponderance of market dominion.
They prepared for this. Russia isn't in as weak of a position as the media is saying. Putin isn't that stupid.
strogonoffpizza -> turok643
Russia is in a very weak position. If they wanted to control Ukraine, they will ended up being controlled by China.
Their economy just sinked, major companies left Russia. They will need China for everything.
And yes, Putin is very stupid. Even if they win the war, they would need a constant presence at Ukraine, they wouldn't be able do control a puppet state without strong military control. It was also said that Kremlin staff wasn't aware of Putin's intention to invade Ukraine.
More countries will be willing to enjoy NATO (Finland went from 20% willing to join nato, to above 50%), and countries are accelerating their energy industries.
LETSGETSCHWIFTY -> strogonoffpizza
This isn’t about Ukraine. It’s about something much bigger. Putin doesn’t give a fuck about Ukrainian land. I think we sit back and watch what unfolds.
strogonoffpizza -> LETSGETSCHWIFTY
Even if it's something bigger, it starts with Ukraine.
So far, it just shows how dependent on China, Russia is going to be, instead of being a bridge with two the big blocks.
It’s genuinely sad to see how ignorant a lot of people are. Mainly ones who’ve never left their hometown/state and traveled abroad.
Biden is owned by China and Ukraine. Thats the simplest answer to everything that is happening right now.
The big thing i see here is Iran and the other nations itching to dump the dollar could push to stop trading oil in dollars. That would make dc and wall street lose their shit. And it will pro ably happen in a few decades anyway if china keeps growimg
Swift is a payment messaging system, not a payment system. Although more difficult, it's still possible for banks to send each other money without Swift. Interested to see how this plays out although my gut feeling is that's this expulsion from swift is going to hurt the US and its allies more than Russia.
Swift 是一个支付报文系统，而不是支付系统。尽管更加困难，但是银行之间仍然可以在没有 Swift 的情况下互相汇款。虽然我的直觉是，驱逐出Swift这件事，比起俄罗斯，对美国及其盟友的伤害更大，但我很想看看这件事的结果。
Whether China wants it or not, the internationalization of the yuan will be accelerated. The events these days are a crucial turning point.
Quality_Fun -> fix_S230-sue_reddit
are you implying that china may not want the yuan to be used more?
DreamyLucid -> Quality_Fun
Yes. Sort of.
fix_S230-sue_reddit -> Quality_Fun
The scope and rate of the internationalization of the yuan are still up for debate, within and outside China. There are also shortcomings to becoming the world reserve currency, and China would very much like to avoid them.
Quality_Fun -> fix_S230-sue_reddit
the yuan is far from replacing the usd as a reserve currency.
ni-hao-r-u -> Quality_Fun
I don't think they should replace the dollar.
I think it is a lot cooler and a lot safer to be an alternative though.
It is like the ever present threat that is just on the border of your peripheral vision. Somebody driving in your blind spot.
An ever constant threat to remind you to stay on your toes.
I like it
limitz -> Quality_Fun
It's used less than the pound sterling right now by percentage, so there's certainly a ways to go.
kcwingood -> Quality_Fun
Becoming a valid alternative during crises or for direct trade is fine, but China should not strive to be the top or dominant currency, which is just economic hegemony as the US demonstrates by routinely abusing its power. Besides, China still needs to control the stability of its currency to better deal with its own domestic issues, which should be the priority over any international interests.
Just curious if anyone knows. If Visa and Mastercard cut links is the debt written off for users in Russia since they can’t transact?
ConnectEngine -> yuewanggoujian
I think the cards were issued by Russian banks so they still need to pay back their banks.
Russia consumer market is not small. US companies are going to completely lost this market for a very long time.
These sanctions are just creating an alternative economic system, who would have thought
The Western monopolies on everything from payment processors to high-tech inputs are slowly but inexorably coming to an end. We will likely going to see a bifurcated world. The "westosphere" in one corner and the Eurasian sphere in the other, with China being the lead player.
The West will not take this lightly! They will try to blackmail & sanction everyone who dares step out of line.
Bigotry, violence, and Racism are American Foreign Policy!
this is about the dumbest move possible by corporations. when you "impose sanctions" on a national gov't, this is asking for it.
And just like that, UnionPay instantly gained 140 million new users. We are really seeing the collapse of the AmeriKKKan financial system firsthand. You love to see it.
lemontree266 -> Gaoran
When U$A use it’s economic, financial, technological and legal policies as the new weapon, it’s time to distance and protect yourself from U$A.