[2022-01-24]Quora问答：你认为印度经济在未来几年会战胜中国经济吗？为什么？

Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam Lawyer
Nobody can tell about the Future
Maybe we one day we will lose 30% of our population and gain some very valuable Avatar type resource and have a Deng type leader who will use this wealth wisely to build the Nation.
However in the next 30 years - this looks highly unlikely

【回答】律师
没有人能预知未来。
也许有一天，我们会失去30%的人口，并获得一些非常有价值的阿凡达式资源，并有一位邓类型的领导人，他将明智地使用这些财富来建设这个国家。
然而，在接下来的30年里，这种可能性看起来极小
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Shane Mathew
The vast majority are living in an echo chamber, where they believe that India is the greatest country. Our inability to acknowledge our fallacies is our primary hindrance to growth.
So India will not surpass China in the next 50 years.

【回复】绝大多数人生活在回音室里，他们相信印度是最伟大的国家。我们无法承认自己的谬论，这是我们发展的主要障碍。
所以，印度在未来50年内不会超过中国。

Śrīvatsa
If we maintain this growth rate(~9.2 %++ annually) we can reach 50% of China Economy after 30 years for sure, which will put enough pressure on China.

【回复】如果我们保持这个增长速度(每年9.2%以上)，30年后我们肯定可以达到中国经济的50%，这将给中国带来足够的压力。

Narinder Singh
As long as we have current system of recruiting bureaucrats in India who are world class incompetent- India will never excel in any field

【回复】只要我们印度还在沿用现有的招募世界级无能官僚的制度，印度就永远不会在任何领域取得卓越的成就。

Prajwal Madaksira
If the aging crisis in china worsens and if we have a decade of rapid growth like china went through in the 90's, it is possible to beat them economically.

【回复】如果中国的老龄化危机恶化，如果我们像90年代的中国那样经历十年的快速增长，我们就有可能在经济上战胜他们。

Elizabeth Wang
Not possible even in the next 100 years.
Very few Indians arrive to the correct conclusions regarding India’s economic failure. Among those who know, they can’t speak about it as it’d upset the whole Indian society.

【回复】即使在接下来的一百年里也是不可能的。
很少有印度人对印度的经济失败得出正确的结论。在那些知道的人当中，他们不能谈论这个问题，因为这会扰乱整个印度社会。

Prajwal Madaksira
We may not be growing as fast as you guys, but we're definitely catching up

【回复】我们的发展速度可能没有你们快，但我们肯定会迎头赶上

Elizabeth Wang
No, there’s no chance as India will struggle to maintain a modern society for the forseeable fUture. There are rudimental problems plaguing India. India is still very ethnically, linguistically and religiously diverse. Perhaps there’ll be solutions, but it’s yet to be discovered.

【回复】不，没有机会，因为在可预见的未来，印度将努力维持一个现代社会。有一些基本的问题困扰着印度。印度在种族、语言和宗教方面仍然非常多样化。也许会有解决方案，但还没有被发现。

Lokesh Reddy
catch up? when? Maybe 2100, 2200?

【回复】赶上？什么时候？也许2100年，2200年？

Sharad Agarwal
In CY2022 India is expected to grow by 8.5% whereas China by 5.6%. These are IMF projection.
In size, Indian economy will not surpass China…but in Growth%, going forward, in many years we may surpass them.

【回复】国际货币基金组织预测，印度2022年的经济增长率为8.5% ，而中国为5.6%。
在规模上，印度的经济不会超过中国... 但是在增长的百分比方面，展望未来，我们可能在多年内超过中国。

Lokesh Reddy
On lower base that mean nothing. China is 20T economy while India is 3T economy so it will take forever to catch up with China. With so much irresponsible people, lack of focus on education and entrepreneurship I don’t think so India will ever catch up. Where is our BABA, Tencent, baidu?

【回复】在较低的基础上，这没有什么意义。中国是20万亿级的经济体，而印度是3万亿级的经济体，因此永远赶不上中国。有这么多不负责任的人，缺乏对教育和创业精神的关注，我不认为印度会赶上。我们的阿里巴巴、腾讯、百度在哪里？

Nachiket Parulekar
Will you support the BJP and Modiji nationally and Yogiji in Uttar Pradesh IF they do well economically??
By they… I mean with the help of the economists they have in their office and in their terms….

【回复】如果他们在经济上表现良好，你会在全国支持印度人民党和莫迪，支持北方邦的阿蒂提吗？
通过他们... 我指的是在他们办公室里的经济学家的帮助下，按他们的说法...

M.Ramaswamy Iyer
Some of our bureaucrats are excellent and world class. Their competence cannot be questioned. It’s not that managers in the private sector are mediocre. Sorry, many are average. That’s a fact.

【回复】我们的一些官员很优秀，是世界级的。他们的能力不容置疑。这并不是说私营部门的管理者都很平庸。但不好意思，很多都很普通。这是事实。

Priyesh
100 years unlikely …

【回复】一百年不太可能...

Kuf Murt
Do you really think that a country with states like UP and Bihar can ever get “developed” status?lol😅😅😅

【回复】你真的认为像北方邦和比哈尔邦这样的邦能够获得“发达”的地位吗？哈哈

Uday Bhat
In the next 30 years so many Indians (,something like 80 crores) and foreigners will be so old that you would need crores of health care and support staff such as drivers, cooks, cleaners, security guards etc. Very few will be left for farming, dairy, industry blue collars ,armed forces etc. Since many in software will be retiring rich, inflation will be rampant. This country like so many European ones will simply collapse.

【回复】在接下来的30年里，许多印度人(大约8千万)和外国人的年龄将会非常老，以至于你需要数千万的医疗保健和支持人员，比如司机、厨师、清洁工、保安等等。只有很少一部分将留给农业、奶制品、工业蓝领、军队等。由于许多软件行业的从业人员即将富裕退休，因此通货膨胀将会非常严重。这个国家就会像许多欧洲国家一样，彻底崩溃。

Osama bin Laden
sir would I be able to see India as developed country in my lifetime I am 16.

【回复】先生，在我有生之年，我能看到印度成为一个发达国家吗？我今年16岁。

Ravish Kumbhar
Doesn’t matter to bhakts. They are happy to be compared with Pakistan.

【回复】这对印度人来说并不重要，他们很乐意和巴基斯坦相比。

Pig of
India-3.1 Trillion USD economy
Pakistan- 10 billion USD forex reserve
Keep dreaming

【回复】印度，3.1万亿美元的经济
巴基斯坦，100亿美元的外汇储备
继续做梦吧。

Sonu Agarwal
Highly unlikely in this century as we cannot do realistic calculations and we do not acknowledge our failures.

【回复】在本世纪极不可能，因为我们无法进行现实的计算，也不承认我们的失败。

M.Ramaswamy Iyer
Anything is possible in politics. Also please understand that the Indian Govt is running a democratic set up not dictatorial. Remember Indira Gandhi’s Emergency time. Are you prepared for it ? Think.

【回复】在政治中，一切皆有可能。另外，请清楚印度政府运行的是民主制度，而不是专政。记住英迪拉·甘地的紧急状态。你准备好了吗？想想。（译注：英迪拉·甘地的紧急状态，1975-1977年开启，实施专政统治，她凭借紧急状态期间稳定国家、促进经济增长方面取得成就）
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Maulana Oraf Proprietor at Hind National Exports (1992-present)
Never not in a million years with kulakanomics reigning supreme here. Kulaks eventually see to it that we will become the second rate country in India unless we checkmate them quickly.
China eliminated kulak as a class which is why they're United. Kulaks are simply there to hoard resources for themselves and then to use religion or race baiting to make their scum fuckery seem less scum fuckish.

【回答】Hind国家出口公司的拥有者(1992年-至今)
在地主经济学盛行的情况下，永远不可能。地主们最终会确保我们印度成为二流国家，除非我们迅速将他们击败。
中国消灭了地主阶级，这就是为什么他们团结的原因。地主们只为他们自己囤积资源，然后利用宗教或种族迫害，来让他们的混蛋行为看起来不那么混蛋。
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Deepak C
hoarding of land by politicians and people has caused the land to be so expensive. I mean business are run of cash flows and if the cash flow itself is used to just pay for rents then forget about expansion and the blue collar people been able to get the roof over the head.
Chinese grew all together so whole nation becomes prosperous.

【回复】政客和民众囤积土地，导致土地如此昂贵。我的意思是，企业是靠现金流运行的，如果现金流本身只是用来支付租金，那么就不要考虑扩张了，蓝领阶层都能有个住处了。
中国人是一起成长的，所以整个国家变得繁荣起来。

Kunjesh Passi
By the end of 2023 our economy will be double compared with China's . Approximately say 30 billion or so , though I don't know how many zeros are there in a billion.

【回复】到2023年底，我们的经济将是中国的两倍。大约300亿左右，虽然我不知道10亿中有多少个0。
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Ayussh Sanghi A keen economic observer
It’ll be extremely difficult to do that. The reason, India remained a socialist economy for far too long while China was quick to realize it has to open up its economy to thrive.

【回答】敏锐的经济观察家
要实现是非常困难的。原因是，印度保持社会主义经济的时间太长了，而中国很快意识到它必须开放经济才能发展。

Amardeep Verma
No it will not. We are growing at the rate of 4–6%, with our first recession currently on going. Further we are practicing corny capitalism not real capitalism along with regulatory capture by businessmen. Additionally our leaders are more interested in blaming Nehru-Gandhi family while they keep on having mindless tea conferences. They are more interested in Demonitization, Ram Mandir and CAA. We will loose the youth bulge and the dividend that comes from it very soon.
The only way that India can overtake China is if Chinese economy stumbles. So we will overtake China not because of our capabilities or leadership or any of the actions that we have taken, but because of the mistakes of others.

【回答】
不，不可能的。我们正以4-6%的速度增长，我们的第一次经济衰退正在进行中。此外，我们实行的是陈腐的资本主义，而不是真正的资本主义，还有商人的监管俘获。此外，我们的领导人更感兴趣的是指责尼赫鲁-甘地家族，而他们却继续进行愚蠢的茶话会。他们对废钞令、拉姆•曼迪尔和公民身份法案更感兴趣。我们很快就会失去年轻人的增长和由此带来的红利。
印度要想赶超中国的唯一途径是，中国经济自己陷入困境。所以，如果我们会赶超中国，不是因为我们的能力或领导力，也不是因为我们采取的任何行动，而是因为其他国家犯错。

Rohan Sharma studied International Relations & Foreign Policy of India
Yes, India has all the conditions which are needed or are necessary for overtaking the Chinese economy. India is lacking the reforms. If India took the timely reforms in many fields like business environment, corruption, etc. then India can overtake the Chinese economy. But soon this is not going to happen, because of India’s slow pace of bringing reforms and not bringing the reforms in the simultaneous process. India has already crossed the opportunity of using the young demographic divided, now India has left with very little time for using the young demographic dividend, once it is passed then it becomes difficult for India to surpass the Chinese economy.

【回答】学习国际关系和印度的外交政策
是的，印度具备超越中国经济所需要或必要的一切条件。印度缺乏改革。如果印度及时在商业环境、腐败等诸多领域进行改革，那么印度就能超过中国经济。但是，由于印度推行改革的步伐缓慢，而且没有同步推进改革，这种情况不会很快发生。印度已经错过了利用年轻人口的红利的机会，现在印度已经没有多少时间利用年轻人口的红利了，一旦过了这个时间，印度就很难超越中国经济。

Johnathan Lawrence
I’ve seen some answers with a definitive yes and some with a definitve no. My answer is perhaps. India has a high population, many of them fit for work. It has emerging industries with high promise. But it’s not going to surpass China anytime soon. India needs to solve a few fundamental problems before it can start an economic growth as big as China’s. Generally, Chinese society is more unified as a whole, meaning that they can work towards goals much better. India at the moment has too much division and corruption in its politics, too many people are acting in their own self interests rather than for the greater good. Not to mention social issues regarding things like the treatment of women, caste system, e.t.c. I’m not trying to slander or create overly negative stereotypes about India. I’m just saying that these are problems that exist on a much higher scale than China.
If India does manage to reduce these problems combined with good investment then I think it has the capability to focus on development goals even more and achieve more rapid growth. However, the possibility of surpassing China’s economy will still be a long way away. But who knows, if India follows this path they may surpass China in the long run. But definitely not in the next few years, even decades for that matter. That’s just my thoughts, if yours differ it’s fine.

【回答】
我看到了有一些回答是明确的肯定，有一些是明确的否定。我的回答是可能。印度人口众多，其中许多人适合工作。它有前景很好的新兴产业。但它不会很快超过中国。印度需要解决一些基本问题，才能实现像中国那样大的经济增长。总的来说，中国社会更加团结，这意味着他们可以更好地朝着目标努力。印度目前在政治上有太多的分歧和腐败，太多的人是为了自己的利益而不是为了更大的利益。更不用说诸如妇女待遇、种姓制度等社会问题了。我并不是要诽谤或者制造对印度过度负面的刻板印象。我只是说，这些问题的规模比中国大得多。
如果印度确实能够减少这些问题，再加上良好的投资，那么我认为它有能力更加专注于发展目标，实现更快速的增长。然而，超越中国经济的可能性，还有很长的路要走。但谁知道呢，如果印度沿着这条路走下去，从长远来看，他们可能会超过中国。但绝对不是在未来几年，甚至几十年内。这只是我的想法，如果你的想法不同也没关系。

Aachri Tyagi Graduation Mathematics & Economics, Motilal Nehru College, University of Delhi (2021)
India is forecast to overtake China to become the world's fastest-growing large economy next year. But Prime Minister Narendra Modi faces serious challenges as he prepares to deliver his first budget this weekend. GDP is expected to grow by more than 8% in the coming year, a figure European economies can only dream of.
The Indian economy will grow at 9.7% in 2021, which will be faster than all of the world's major economies, according to London-based data and analytics firm GlobalData. ... China is likely to trail India in 2021 with an 8.1% gross domestic product (GDP) growth, GlobalData said.

【回答】毕业于德里大学莫蒂拉尔·尼赫鲁学院数学与经济学(2021年)
预计明年印度将超过中国，成为全球增长最快的大型经济体。但总理纳伦德拉·莫迪在准备本周末发布他的第一个预算时面临着严峻的挑战。预计明年的GDP增长率将超过8%，这是欧洲经济体梦寐以求的数字。
根据总部位于伦敦的数据和分析公司GlobalData的数据，印度2021年的经济将增长9.7%，超过世界上所有主要经济体。GlobalData称，中国2021年GDP的增长率8.1%可能落后于印度。

Dani Byai Bachelor of Engineering from Assam Engineering College (2014)
Looking at the present statistics, it will take around 100 years for India to beat Chinese economy. China's economy has grown dramatically over the last 4 decades. Remember that in 1987 the economic power of India and China was almost equal.
India's GDP in 1987 was 283 million USD while China's GDP was 327 million USD. BUT, then China crossed 1 trillion USD in 1998 while India's GDP crossed 1 trillion 9years later in 2007 only.
Well there are several reasons for it, but one of the main reason which people often ignores is CHINA'S FOREIGN AFFAIRS POLICY. Unlike other Countries foreign policy, China's Foreign Policy is very strategically designed to boost it's economic development.
There are 3 pillars of China's Foreign Policy: The State, the Party, the People.

【回答】阿萨姆工程学院，工程学士(2014年)
从目前的统计数据来看，印度要打败中国经济需要大约一百年的时间。中国的经济在过去的40年中急剧增长。记住，在1987年，印度和中国的经济实力几乎是相等的。
1987年，印度的GDP为2.83亿美元，而中国的GDP为3.27亿美元。但是，中国在1998年超过了1万亿美元，而印度的GDP在9年后的2007年才超过了1万亿美元。
其中有几个原因，但是人们经常忽视的一个主要原因是中国的外交政策。与其他国家的外交政策不同，中国的外交政策是非常具有战略性的，旨在促进中国的经济发展。
中国的外交政策有三大支柱：国家、党、人民。

Lorabailey111
Maybe maybe not. Either way. Its not very important. The economic strength of India is of no threat to China. Only threats that can be posed are military. These concerns weigh greatly on any nation. Economic force is rather a pacifist shallow and meaningless one. As it requires the consent of those you wish to do business with. At the very worst. Economic strength gives the stronger, bargaining power. But at the end of the day. They still need consent.
With military strength. No consent is needed. Making it the ultimate bargaining power. As no bargaining ever takes place. And you simply take what you want through force.

【回答】
可能会，可能不会。不管怎样。这不是很重要。印度的经济力量不会对中国构成威胁。唯一能构成威胁的是军事力量。这些担忧对任何国家都是巨大的压力。经济力量是相当和平主义、肤浅以及毫无意义的一种力量。因为这需要那些你希望做生意的人的同意。在最坏的情况下，经济力量给予更强大的议价能力。但最终，他们仍然需要征得同意。
而用军事力量，则不需要征得同意。使其成为最终的讨价还价能力。因为不会有讨价还价。你只需要通过武力得到你想要的东西。

Raj Sharlan
Indian economy and political economy is carrying heavy weight of reservation subsidies and socio economic justice it may take 100 years to over take the reason would be not indian efficiency but Chinese demography

【回答】
印度的经济和政治经济，背负着保留补贴和社会经济正义的沉重负担，这可能需要一百年的时间才能赶上(中国)，原因不是印度的效率，而是中国的人口结构。

Vijay K
Maybe May not be
Predicting Future was is and always will be Impossible
Predicting some Future trends is Possible.
Coming to your question; Present way of economic development; India beating China is next to impossible. Its not about current GDP but what each country is doing to improve future of economy.
China has and is since past mane decades investing aggressively in building modern infrastructure; education sector with science-r&d base and is resulted in not only top spot in manufacturing sector but is making inroads in service sector in technology.
India has been a big laggard as far these vision-mission and ambition goes;

【回答】
也许会，也许不会。
预测未来过去、现在和将来都是不可能的。
预测未来的一些趋势是可能的。
关于你的问题：现在的经济发展方式；印度战胜中国几乎是不可能的。这不是关于当前的GDP，而是每个国家都在为改善未来的经济而做些什么。
过去几十年来，中国一直并正在积极大力投资建设现代基础设施；拥有科研基础的教育部门，不仅造就了制造业的领先地位，而且在技术服务领域也取得了进展。
就这些远见、使命和雄心而言，印度一直是一个大大的落后者；

Tomorrow there could be some unthinkable natural calamity shaking China and bringing its juggernaut to halt giving India an unprecedented push.
Or
India may get an Government which takes up development seriously than at present of no use religious divide based environment
Or
Some Indians may invent technology of unparalleled supremacy solving Trillions of Dollars worth problems; bringing not only great FDI but helping create millions of jobs at higher pays.
So It Maybe It May Notbe

明天可能会有一些难以想象的自然灾害动摇了中国，使其无以伦比的力量停止下来，并给印度带来前所未有的推动。
或者
印度可能会有一个认真对待发展的政府，而不是目前基于宗教分歧的没有任何用处的环境。
或者
一些印度人可能发明了空前绝后的技术，解决了价值数万亿美元的问题；不仅带来了巨大的外国直接投资，而且帮助创造了数以百万计的工作岗位。
所以，也许会，也许不会。