[2019-09-03]欧洲投资巨头主管：特朗普严重误判了中国的实力

Donald Trump has been dialing up the tariffs. Yet Xi as held a firm line and has been unwilling to fold to increasing pressure from the US. Donald Amstad from Aberdeen Standard Investments believes that Trump may have misread how strong China's hand is by overlooking some key inputs to the trade relationship between the two countries.

视频内容概要：特朗普一直在提高关税，并持续发表贸易争端的言论。 然而，中国主席立场坚定，不愿屈服于来自美国不断增加的压力。 英国阿伯丁标准投资公司的唐纳德 · 阿姆斯塔德认为，特朗普忽视了两国贸易关系的一些关键因素，可能误判了中国的实力有多强大。

While most of the focus has been on traded goods Amstad says to get the full picture you also need to take into consideration the value of services and the profits earned by US companies operating in China. “In China there is no political cycle. President Trump has got 15 months to sort this out before he faces re-election. So, time is very much on China’s side.”

阿姆斯塔德表示，尽管人们关注的焦点主要集中在贸易商品上，但要全面了解情况，你还需要考虑到服务价值和在华经营的美国公司的利润。“在中国，不存在政治周期。而特朗普在连任之前，只有15个月的时间来解决这个问题。 因此，时间在很大程度上对中国有利。”

油管网友评论:
lamdawave
China also claims that in the calculations of trade surplus, US has not included the goods and services sold to China through Hong Kong. This amounts to about US$200 billion. - Like：26

中国还声明，美国在计算贸易顺差时，并没有包括通过香港向中国出售的商品和服务。这相当于大约2000亿美元。

Henry L
It is because comrade Trump wants to make China great again. Look at China, they have made tremendous progress in chip technology after comrade Trump put Chinese hi tech companies on blacklist and forbid chip sales to China. Comrade Trump really wants to encourage China to develop its own technology and get itself weaned off the great American Silicon Valley. - Like：10

这是因为特朗普同志想让中国再次强大起来。看看中国，在特朗普同志把中国的高科技公司列入黑名单，禁止向中国销售芯片后，他们在芯片技术方面取得了巨大的进步。 特朗普同志真的想鼓励中国发展自己的技术，远离伟大的美国硅谷。

FreeLunch ForChildren
Never underestimate Chinese Engineers, I taught many of them over the years . . . - Like：0

永远不要低估中国的工程师，我多年来教过他们许多人...

MattCellaneous
China hasn't budged because they think that they can wait out Trump. - Like：4

中国没有动摇，因为他们认为他们可以等待特朗普下台。

Dale J Munk
You fool. This is national security and the future of what we stand for. We don't want them stealing people ideas and making slaves out of us. Trump hasn't gone far enough. - Like：9

你个傻瓜。这关系到国家安全和我们所代表的未来。 我们不希望他们窃取我们的想法，把我们变成奴隶。 特朗普做得还不够。

Johnny Stewart
China has over 5,000 years of history; and is 4X's more populated. Go figure! - Like：1

中国有5000多年的历史，人口是美国的4倍。想想吧！

parkerbohnn
America will lose the trade war capitalism no longer works. In due time America will turn communist just like China. - Like：0

美国将输掉贸易战，资本主义将不再有效。 在合适的时候，美国会像中国一样转向共产主义。

Andrew Bates
What's failing isn't Capitalism - Capitalism is the only thing that works. - Like：5

失败的不是资本主义——资本主义是唯一有用的东西。

Kevin K
you forgot Clinton's internet bubble crash of 1999 - Like：0

你忘了1999年克林顿的互联网泡沫破裂

John Smith
The past Us administrations and greed created a mess and only massive pain will fix it now over a long period time
God help us all - Like：3

过去贪婪的美国政府制造了一个烂摊子，现在只有付出巨大的痛苦，才能在很长一段时间内解决这个问题
上帝保佑我们。

Telluwide
One more case against US corporations. That "trade surplus" the US has in the form of services as well as profits from their companies doing business in China is not transferred back to the US and taxed. But instead is being held off-shore in tax havens by US corporations. This is something that has been grossly overlooked by our corporate owned media. - Like：4

又一起针对美国公司的案件。 美国以服务业形式拥有的“贸易顺差” ，以及美国企业在中国开展业务的利润，都不会转移回美国并征税。 但实际上，美国企业正将这些资产转移到避税港。这是所有的媒体严重忽视的东西。

Kaze
Good point. US Corporations continues to screw the US taxpayers. - Like：1

说得好，美国公司继续压榨美国纳税人。

Kong Wee Peh
But the whole US blame on China. lol - Like：0

但是整个美国都在指责中国。哈哈

don hansen
China is dangerous and so the balances of trade are secondary in importance.
Freedom is not negotiable. - Like：1

中国很危险，所以贸易平衡还是次要的，自由才是最重要。

Harry
The hawks have mistaken China's kindness for weakness. That much is obvious. Westerners study the Art of War while it is instilled into the Chinese through their culture. - Like：1

鹰派把中国的善良误认为是软弱。这很明显。西方人在书上学习孙子兵法，而中国人则通过他们的文化把孙子兵法灌输给中国人。

lamdawave
Actually trade deficits are good for USA because you have been printing so much money, if you don't use this money to buy goods and services of other countries like China, this money will cause serious inflation in USA!
So starting a trade war with China on grounds of trade deficits is only a pretext. The real reason is USA is scared of China's rise. - Like：1

事实上，贸易逆差对美国是有好处的，因为你一直在印钞票，如果你不用这些钱来购买其他国家的商品和服务，比如中国，这些钱将在美国引起严重的通货膨胀！
因此，以贸易逆差为由发动与中国的贸易战只是一个借口。 真正的原因是美国害怕中国的崛起。

David Hill
Having a single party state like China does have some advantages as they can plan further ahead without worrying about pesky things like elections . - Like：0

像中国这样的一党制国家确实有一些优势，因为他们可以提前计划，而不用担心选举之类的麻烦事。

Michael H
This trade war means absolutely nothing. Obama tried the TPP and Pivot to Asia as a move against China. The democrats are in agreement with Trump regarding China. Trump is far better for China than a competent leader. I say let Trump stay. He's good for everyone except Americans. - Like：0

这场贸易战毫无意义。 奥巴马试图用 TPP 和“重返亚洲”战略来对付中国。 民主党人在中国问题上与特朗普意见一致。 对中国来说，特朗普比一个称职的领导人要好得多。我建议让特朗普留下。他对每个人都有好处，除了美国人。

Donald Kasper
China builds cheaply because it steals all the answers from the US. When it has to develop for itself, costs are going up, way up. - Like：0

中国的建设成本低廉，因为它窃取了美国的所有工作机会。当它不得不自己发展的时候，成本就会上升，直线上升。

David Guelette
China has a 5,10,20,year plan and will use an American recession to destroy trumps reelection - Like：1

中国有一个5年、10年、20年的计划，并将利用美国的经济衰退来破坏特朗普的连任

Duya Taksis
I think China's "slowing" needs to be put into context. Over the last 30 years China grew at an average rate of 9.6%. If it were to grow at that rate for the next 30 its economy would be $427 trillion (nearly half a *quadrillion*) in 2050 - for perspective, that's more than three times the entire planet's output today. Its per-capita GDP would be $300,000, 5 times the United States' today (the US would have to grow at an average of 5.5% per year for its per capita GDP to reach that. Its historical rate of growth is 2%).
I'm very bullish on China, but I don't think that's the outcome I'd bet my money on. China's economy can't but slow because planet Earth is a finite thing. Even "slowed", China's economy is by far the most vibrant in the world, adding more to its GDP per year than the entire economy of Australia. - Like：0

我认为，中国经济的“放缓”需要放在一个大背景下来考虑。 在过去的30年中，中国的平均增长率为9.6% 。 如果中国在未来30年以这样的速度增长，到2050年，其经济规模将达到427万亿美元(近5000万亿美元)——从长远来看，这是目前整个地球产量的三倍多。 中国的人均国内生产总值将达到30万美元，是美国现在的5倍（美国的人均国内生产总值必须以每年5.5% 的平均速度增长才能达到这一水平，其历史增长率为2%）。
我非常看好中国，但我不认为这是我押注中国的结果，中国的经济不得不放缓，因为地球是一个有限的东西。 即使“放缓”，中国的经济也是迄今为止世界上最有活力的，每年增加的GDP比整个澳大利亚的经济还要多。

Mireille Lebeau
Guelette If there's an American recession, Trump won't be re-elected with or without China intervention in the election! - Like：0

如果美国经济衰退，不管有没有中国的干预，特朗普都不会连任！

schumanhuman
The reasons China cannot grow at the same rate are firstly that too much growth has been ponzi growth speculation in the property sector, vacancy rates sit at a staggering 20% according to official figures, that's above rates the US saw during the GFC. Xi indicated as much when he said 'houses are for living in not speculation'.
Also China's prime age labour force peaked around 2015, dampening growth prospects further.
The idea now, quite sensible in itself, is to transition from an export led economy to a domestic demand one, but debt levels are extreme and the deleveraging necessary is not going to be easy or smooth, one advantage China has is most of the debt is internal and can be restructured (esp corporate debt), but less so if the % of household debt rises. To keep exports competitive the currency must weaken, but as the currency weakens the risk of capital flight and speculative attacks rises, something will have to give sooner or later regardless of the trade war imo. - Like：0

中国不能以同样的速度增长的原因，首先是房地产业的庞氏投机增长，根据官方数据，房屋空置率高达惊人的20%，高于美国在全球金融危机期间的增长率。中国主席在谈到“房子是为了生活而不是投机”的时候也表达了同样的意思。
此外，中国的黄金年龄劳动力在2015年左右达到顶峰，进一步减弱了增长的前景。
现在的想法很明智，是从出口导向型经济过渡到国内需求型经济，但是债务水平极端，必要的去杠杆化不会是一件容易的事情，中国的一个优势是大部分债务是国内的，可以重组(尤其是公司债务) ，但是如果家庭债务的百分比上升，那就不那么容易了。为了保持出口的竞争力，货币必须走弱，但随着货币贬值、资本外逃和投机的风险上升，无论贸易战如何，迟早有些东西将不得不放弃。

James
I explained to my wife the exact same things he said regarding why usa needs China more. Service/tech exports, American corporate profits in Chin, it’s way more than the slim profit margins on 800 billion dollars of goods trade with the US. - Like：1

我向我妻子解释了为什么美国更需要中国。 服务/技术出口，美国企业在中国的利润，远远超过了美国8000亿美元商品贸易的微薄利润。

joshron99
"I think that it is the consensus view that America is right and that China is wrong... ." (00:14). Whose "consensus" is that? - Like：2

“我想，人们普遍认为，美国是对的，中国是错的...”
这是谁的“普遍认为” ？

rayplays4u
exactly the concensus view is that Trump is tanking his own economy through ignorance. You could conceivably argue that import duties are being used to offset tax cuts for rich. I doubt there is any strategy though. Completely irrational is highly probable. - Like：0

确切地说，普遍认为是，特朗普是在通过无知来损害自己的经济。 你可以想象得到，进口关税被用来抵消对富人的减税。 不过，我怀疑特朗普是否有什么策略。不过完全没有理由更有可能。

patrick brown
Trump needs to get his act together real soon or the US will be in yet another depression or War-we don't need either! - Like：0

特朗普需要尽快采取行动，否则美国将陷入另一场萧条或战争——我们两者都不需要！

Mr. Cosmos
Sure,the USA government knows they are ripping off China.Trade deficit is just an excuse to fight and cow China into a unfair pact again ( first time was after the opium war) so that USA supremacy,hegemony and world domination will not be threatened like they did to Japan in the 1980s. - Like：0

当然，美国政府知道他们在剥削中国。 贸易逆差只是一个借口，打击和迫使中国再次签订不公平的条约(第一次是在鸦片战争之后) ，这样美国的霸权和征服世界的欲望，就不会像80年代那样，被日本威胁。

Ryan Sweeney
Politics over the last few years has grabbed my attention. The next two years are going to be exciting xxxx - Like：0

过去几年的政治吸引了我的注意力。 接下来的两年将是激动人心的时刻。

Eric Cole
The China tariff war is a con on the American people if you look at the result of the tariff war it is bankrupting independent Truckers , Family farms , and small manufacturing . It is a corporate grab for assets of the family business by large corporations . We were played with the housing crisis and corporate banks were given bailout money which is corporate socialism..Retail family run business has been taken over by Walmart , Target , Kroger , and many more large corporations ; who have all the Tax breaks and when established pay little or no land tax . Small business does and family business pays the corporations share of the tax burden ! We even pay them to build and they get tax breaks and more free money to build in small towns . So vote Republican or corporate Democrat it will not matter ! The only chance we and our children have is to vote for social Democrats . We are morons as long as we stay divided ! - Like：4

特朗普的中国关税战争是对美国人民的欺骗，如果你看看关税战争的结果，它正在使卡车司机、家庭农场和小型制造业破产。这是大公司对家族企业资产的掠夺。我们被房地产危机玩弄了，企业银行得到了救助资金，这是企业社会主义......家庭零售业已经被沃尔玛、塔吉特百货、克罗格以及更多的大公司所接管；他们享有所有的税收减免，而且在建立时只缴纳很少或根本不缴纳土地税。而小企业和家族企业却分担那些巨头的税负！ 我们甚至付钱让他们建房子，他们可以享受税收减免，还可以得到更多的免费资金在小城镇建房子。
因此，投票给共和党或民主党都无关紧要！我们和我们的孩子唯一的机会就是投票给社会民主党。只要我们继续分裂，那我们就一直是白痴！

Kurt Beck
Well said Eric. 👍👏 - Like：1

说得好，埃里克

L98FIERO
Understand your enemy, it's the billionaires and neo-liberalism. - Like：1

要知道你真正的敌人，是亿万富翁和新自由派。

Lee Tan
Very good insight!! Thank you. - Like：0

非常好的洞察力！！谢谢。

szaki
Would China lash out with it's military, like Japan did in WW2 after the oil embargo?
China to create another Pearl Harbor by attacking Taiwan ? - Like：1

中国会像二战石油禁运后的日本那样，用军事打击美国吗？
中国会通过袭击台湾制造另一个珍珠港事件？

Dasd Da
atk taiwan for waht? just stop trading with taiwan, it will crawl back to china for support. - Like：0

袭击台湾干什么？只要停止与台湾的贸易，它就得爬回来求中国帮忙。

hungry panda
Recession is coming. - Like：1

经济衰退即将来临。

Tom Ski
Ok, let's decouple both economies then. We'll see who had a trade surplus. - Like：0

好吧，让我们把这两个经济体分裂开来。 我们来看看谁有贸易顺差。

evets1709
Is China now buying soybeans from South America decoupling? (that market won't be returning any time fast) Is China increasingly getting into bed with Russia decoupling? Russia's energy supplies are enormous and they won't need ships to get it to China, just a bloody big pipe constructed by chinese workers (if they have any to spare -sic) So energy supplies in the USA might be huge but they are not the only ones.) China will come out on top, along with many other countries that pick up the contracts lost by USA. And once new contracts are in place, it won't matter who is POTUS the problem will still be there. Well done Donny boy, well done! (sarc) - Like：0

中国有在购买脱钩美国的大豆吗？（这个市场不会很快恢复）中国有在积极与俄罗斯脱钩？
俄罗斯的能源供应是巨大的，他们不需要用船运到中国，只需要由中国工人建造一个他妈的大管子就能运输，所以虽然美国的能源供应可能是巨大的，但并不是唯一。中国将与其他许多国家一起，接过美国扔掉的合同，脱颖而出。一旦新的合同到位，谁来当总统就无关紧要了，问题依然存在。干得好，小特朗普，干得好！

Worrywart
Trump is the Joker in the pack but thinks he is the King. - Like：0

特朗普是众人的小丑，但他自认为是众人的国王。

Dasd Da
tariff is literally his political campaign for re-election. he can no longer back out of it. And he's willing to risk the US economy with this. - Like：1

关税实际上是他竞选连任的政治手段。他不能再退缩了。他愿意拿美国经济冒这个险。

Radha Krishna
Both China and India are ancient civilizations.....
Obviously they are not in a hurry...
They are more yin.....
They are into self exploration..
America... In a hurry.....
Making enemy of every body....
Sorry you create your enemies... - Like：11

中国和印度都是文明古国，显然他们并不着急，而且他们更阴...
他们正在进行自我探索。而美国匆匆忙忙，把每个人都变成敌人..抱歉，你制造了你的敌人。

Charleston Pinto
The video is about China and the US. Why bring fucking India into it? Oh, that's right, you Indians have these fucking delusions of grandeur of how important you are, so everything must also be about you. Everyone knows that India is an ancient civilizatio，so stop reminding us. - Like：5

这个视频是关于中国和美国的。为什么印度会扯进来？哦，对了，你们印度人对自己的重要性，有他妈的自大型妄想症，所有的事情都必须和你们有关。每个人都知道印度是一个古老的文明 ，所以收起你的陈词滥调。

R E
Radha Krishna have you been to China lately. I lived there and have done business for 20’years. Under 40 years old they have never seen any set back amd have had nothing but luxury. In many cases their kids are more coddled and spoiled then Americans. I go there often and lived there and I don’t see this whole hardiness thing from Chinese. In WW2 the Japanese said the Americans were soft and didn’t have the guts for a war and look how that turned out. Don’t underestimate the grit and and patriotism of Americans. - Like：2

你最近去过中国吗？我住在那里，做了20年的生意。他们40岁以下的人，从未有过任何挫折，除了奢侈什么都没有。在很多情况下，他们的孩子比美国孩子更娇生惯养。我经常去那里，我没有从中国人那里看到顽强精神。在第二次世界大战中，日本人说美国人很软弱，没有战争的胆量，看看结果如何，不要低估美国人的勇气和爱国精神。

L98FIERO
E Funny comparison, in this case the Chinese could be compared to the Americans in WWII as Trump started the 'war'. - Like：0

有趣的比较，在这种情况下，当特朗普发动“战争”时，中国人可以视作二战中的美国人。

RAVI RAMASWAMY
How to make Trump understand this? - Like：1

如何让特朗普明白这一点？

Kurt Beck
Not possible Ravi. Not possible. - Like：0

不可能，朋友，不可能。

Ken Rose
China has a high pain tolerance, US dosen't - Like：7

中国有很高的疼痛耐受力，而美国没有

Jon Soo
I think the US have trade surplus in services with the entire world. Now we want to be paid for security services like a mob protection racket. - Like：2

我认为美国在服务贸易方面对整个世界都有顺差。 现在我们希望像黑帮保护费一样为安全服务付费。

L98FIERO
​Leahy The Africans, Arabs, Indians and Chinese were trading all along the coast from Southern Africa to China long before there was a US let alone a US Navy, maritime trade was not a European invention let alone an American one. - Like：0

早在美国还没有海军之前，非洲人、阿拉伯人、印度人和中国人就已经在从南非到中国的沿海地区进行贸易，海上贸易不是欧洲人发明的，更不用说是美国人发明的了。

Jay H
Putin ordered Trump to start the trade war. These are the two countries that are stronger than Russia. The only way for Russia to emerge as the strongest country is to have these two countries destroy each other. - Like：2

普京命令特朗普发动贸易战。 这两个国家比俄罗斯更强大。 俄罗斯要成为世界上最强大的国家，唯一的办法就是让这两个国家互相残杀。

Teresa Logan
You are right on Jay. - Like：0

你说得对，杰。

Mike Jones
The only people hurting from these tariffs is china! The farmers will be compensated and with a smart businessman in office like trump you will be seeing more products being sold by our farmers to japan and other countrys its in the making. Trump 2020! - Like：1

唯一受到这些关税伤害的是中国！美国农民将得到补偿，如果有一个像特朗普这样聪明的商人在位，你将看到我们的农民将会把产品出售给日本和其他国家。 特朗普2020！

L98FIERO
I'm not so sure America has the high ground in any of those areas and the Chinese tend to play the long game. As was pointed out, Trump needs to be re-elected so for him, the long game may be a year. - Like：0

我不太确定美国在这些领域占据优势，而中国倾向于玩长线游戏。 正如有人指出的那样，特朗普需要连任，所以对他来说，长线游戏可能就是一年。

wezzie
The main is actually because of demographics. China has such a huge population that its population alone make the economy super large . Then you high tech, belt and road they will be on the same level as us within 5-10 that’s according to the pentagon - Like：0

主要是因为人口的原因。中国有如此庞大的人口，以至于仅靠人口就能把经济给推上去。根据五角大楼的说法，高科技、一带一路将使中国在5-10年内与我们处于同一水平。

J J
Chong The potential China has relies on Chinese citizens being given more freedoms and that means less CCP intruding and deciding in every aspect of Chinese people’s lives. The opposite is happening. Fair play first and foremost predicates these freedoms. - Like：0

中国的潜力在于给予中国公民更多的自由，这意味着减少中共对中国人民生活方方面面的干涉和决定。
然而相反的情况正在发生。 公平竞争首先体现了这些自由。

Greengrass
wow this guy is smart, maybe send him to hong kong to sort out there problems next..... - Like：8

哇，这家伙真聪明，也许下次派他去香港解决问题......

Bullfrogz100
The saying is "Dont tickle the russian bear and dont insult the chinese panda or else" - Like：0

俗话说: “不要逗俄罗斯的黑熊，不要侮辱中国的熊猫，否则......”

lamdawave
Just be aware that each Apple iPhone costs about US 270 to make in China, but Apple sells it at around US$1000 in USA. - Like：1

请注意，每部苹果 iPhone 在中国的制造成本约为270美元，但苹果在美国的售价约为1000美元。

mynameismilk
Is that labour costs or materials and labour ? - Like：0

是劳动力成本还是材料和劳动力？

lamdawave
Apple makes tons of money from China. This profit, plus those made by many other American companies manufacturing in China, are not included in the calculation of trade figures. So it's unfair to say that China "raped" America as the way Trump put it.
Foxconn, the Taiwaese company that specialises in the mass assembly of iPhones, only makes about US$10.70) phone. The workers had to work in highly regimented environment, about 18 hours a day, 7days a week. Some 23 workers committed suicide over a two year period. See Wikipedia. That's why China want to move away from low end sweat shop industries and move into high tech like 5G ang AI.- Like：1

苹果从中国赚了很多钱。这一利润，加上许多其他美国公司在中国制造的利润，并没有包括在贸易数字的计算中。因此，按照特朗普的说法，说中国“强奸”了美国是不公平的。
专门从事 iphone 大规模组装的台湾公司富士康，只能生产大约10.70美元的手机。工人们不得不在高度组织化的环境中工作，每周工作7天，每天工作18小时。 在两年的时间里，大约有23名工人自杀。这就是为什么中国想要从低端的血汗工厂工业转移到高科技领域，比如5G 和人工智能。

Harry
Without China, Apple wouldn't have a valuation of $1 Trillion. More over, 30% of iphones are sold in China. - Like：1

如果没有中国，苹果的估值不会达到1万亿美元。 超过30%的iPhone在中国销售。

Tim Collins
China has a far more detailed honest view of its trade with the USA than that portrayed by trump to his devoted followers. - Like：7

中国对与美国贸易的看法，比特朗普对他忠实的追随者所描述的更详细更真实。

David tiah
Good analysis - Like：0

很好的分析

Mark Prothro
We should move all supply chains out of China. South America is open for business, and no need to move all that material from the other side of the globe. - Like：1

我们应该将所有的供应链移出中国。 南美是对商业开放的，没有必要把所有的材料从地球的另一边运走。

L98FIERO
And the jobs still will not come back to America, so who is the 'winner?' Brazil? Argentina? Chile? - Like：0

然而就业机会仍然不会回到美国，那么谁是“赢家”呢？ 巴西？ 阿根廷？ 智利？

Mark Prothro
Anybody but China. - Like：0

除了中国谁都行。

k2007
More likely that China wining trade in South America...too late for gringos now saying bye bye their abandoned 'backyard' - Like：0

更有可能的是，中国赢得了南美的贸易... 现在对美国人来说，跟这被他们遗弃的后院说再见已经太晚了

Mark Prothro
You are proposing South America would not jump at the chance to manufacture everything for the US that is being manufactured in China now?
How do come to that conclusion? The reality is the supply chains are leaving China and it is only going to get worse. Buckle up!!
China has much more to lose than the US. - Like：0

你是说，南美不会抓住这个机会，为美国生产目前在中国制造的所有产品？
为什么你会得出这样的结论？ 现实是供应链正在离开中国，情况只会变得更糟。系好安全带吧! ！
中国的损失要比美国大得多。

k2007
Prothro who's understand USA nowadays?today we can be partners.. tomorrow we send bad hombres,lol we gonna chose stability and real partners no colonial embassadors and clowns in charge - Like：0

现在还有谁新人美国？今天我们可以成为伙伴，明天我们就对立，哈哈，我们选择的是稳定和真正的合作伙伴，没有殖民者和小丑掌权的地方。

Michael H
Prothro I think you heavily underestimate why China is so competitive in manufacturing and why other countries haven't been able to compete. Consider India, a country that suffers frequent blackouts. Or Vietnam, a country that cannot meaningfully replace China's large workforce. Perhaps, you think why not diversify and replace China with Southeast Asian countries and South American countries? Well, you're going to run into major problems. 1) Every single time you need spare parts, you need to wait for it to go through customs and border checkpoints. 2) Every single time you engineer a prototype for testing, you need to wait weeks for all the parts to come together. And if there is any mistake, you need to wait another couple weeks for a fix. Meanwhile, in China the same project would be complete in a few days if not hours. 3) Raw materials are sourced from multiple countries. China already is dominate in this field. Rare earth metals come to mind. You'll still need to source that from China.
Your idea about "leaving China" is not new. Many people much smarter than you have tried. China remains the place to manufacture with or without tariffs. It does not matter. US companies will not be leaving in mass. There was a report about Apple building new factories in India and Southeast Asia to the delight of Trump. Do you know what happened later? According to Reuters, Apple is building more new factories in China than all factories outside of China combined. - Like：0

我认为你严重低估了中国在制造业上的竞争力，为什么其他国家没有能力与中国竞争。以印度为例，这个国家经常停电。再说越南，一个无法真正取代中国庞大劳动力的国家。也许，你会想为什么不多样化，用东南亚国家和南美国家取代中国？你会遇到大麻烦的。
1、每次你需要备件的时候，你都要等它通过海关和边境检查站。
2、每次你设计一个样机进行测试，你都需要等上几个星期才能把所有的部件组装到一起。如果有任何错误，你需要再等几个星期才能得到修复。与此同时，在中国，同样的项目如果不是几个小时，也会在几天内完成。
3、原材料来自多个国家。中国已经在这一领域占据主导地位。我想到了稀土金属，你仍然需要从中国采购。
你关于“离开中国”的想法并不新鲜。 许多比你聪明得多的人都尝试过。无论是否加征关税，中国仍然是制造业的源头。没关系，美国企业不会大规模撤离。
令特朗普高兴的是，有报道称苹果在印度和东南亚建立了新工厂。 你知道后续的新闻吗？据路透社报道，苹果在中国新建的工厂，比中国以外所有工厂加起来还要多。

desi derata
There have been very big trade deficit between the US and China. Do you want China to always have the advantage? - Like：0

美国和中国之间一直存在非常巨大的贸易逆差。 你希望中国永远占据优势吗？

parkerbohnn
America will lose the trade war because capitalism no longer works. In due time America will turn communist just like China. Trump is looking at prison time should he lose the 2020 election. The Chinese knows this and are "stringing" Trump knowing the closer to the 2020 election the more Trump is willing to sign anything and sell-out America to China and lie about the coming trade deal just to get re-elected. - Like：0

美国将输掉贸易战，因为资本主义不再有效。 在适当的时候，美国会像中国一样转向共产主义。 如果特朗普在2020年大选中失利，他将面临牢狱之灾。 中国人知道这一点，并且正在“排挤”特朗普，因为他们知道，2020年大选日益临近，特朗普越是愿意签署任何协议，把美国出卖给中国，并对即将达成的贸易协议撒谎，只求获得连任。

Harry Chu
Negative, China is a bipartisan issue and there are hawks in both parties. - Like：0

否定的是，中国是一个跨党派的问题，两党都有鹰派人物。

Kevin Huang
Actually, President Trump and President Xi are in full smirking understanding of the US China "trade war". It's actually far simpler than this CLUELESS commentator is laughably convoluting himself into doing. Trump DOES NOT LIKE ASIANS, and so Trump's very simple goal is to sever all economic and diplomatic ties between the United States and a country like China that is full of Asians that Trump is unapologetically and proudly racially prejudiced against. On the Chinese side, they are fully aware of Trump's racist xenophobia and are openly riding Trump's xenophobia to increase their nonUS economic/diplomatic partnerships in order to make up for the lost profits that come from the increasing US shutdown and constraints on China US trade. With Trump wanting to sever all relations with the Chinese that he is racially prejudiced against and China wanting to pull away from doing business with racially hostile Americans like President Trump, both the US and China are actually working toward the same thing: a shutdown of relations between the China and US. Now if we want to talk about the REAL economic conflict between China and the US, it's not between China and the US but in the international sphere where the US's brute force might and China's sales pitches are vying for the sole favor of nonUS and non Chinese countries. - Like：1

实际上，特朗普总统和中国主席对美中“贸易战”的态度完全是开心的。特朗普不喜欢亚洲人，所以特朗普非常简单的目标，就是切断美国和中国这样一个充满亚洲人的国家之间的所有经济和外交关系，特朗普对这个国家抱有毫无保留的种族歧视。
对中国来讲，他们完全意识到特朗普的种族主义和仇外心理，并公开利用特朗普的仇外心理来增加他们的非美国经济和外交伙伴关系，以弥补美国政府左右摇摆对华贸易限制带来的利润损失。
特朗普想要断绝与中国的所有关系，因为他对中国持有种族偏见，而中国想要摆脱与特朗普等种族敌视的美国人做生意，美国和中国实际上都在朝着同一个目标努力：切断中美之间的联系。
现在，如果我们想谈论中美之间真正的经济冲突，其实这不是中国和美国之间的冲突，而是在国际范围内，美国的蛮力和中国的推销手段，争夺除美国和中国以外的国家。

T Hyslop
Absolute bollocks. Pulling out the race card. That is your argument? No fan of Trump, but China has its own problems internally. - Like：0

绝对是胡说八道。 拿出种族牌。 这就是你的论点？ 我不是特朗普的支持者，但中国内部也有自己的问题。

Kevin Huang
T Hyslop - Clearly you are not American or Chinese. I AM BOTH. Because you are not American like me, you don't understand the real history of how America was founded on RACIST PRINCIPLES of exploiting nonwhites that still persist to the current day. Because you are not Chinese like me, you don't understand the real history of how China is sick and tired of being abused by the RACIST PRINCIPLES from foreign powers that sought to exploit the nonwhite Chinese populace when China was occupied by foreign forces. A guy like you who is neither American or Chinese could never possibly understand the actual racism that guides the thinking and policies of both the US and Chinese. - Like：0

显然你不是美国人或中国人，但我两者都是。因为你不像我一样是美国人，所以你不了解美国是如何建立在种族主义原则基础上，这种原则一直持续到今天。因为你不像我一样是中国人，所以你们不了解真实的历史，中国是如何讨厌外国列强的种族主义，这些列强在占领中国时，试图剥削非白人的中国民众。 像你这样既不是美国人也不是中国人的人，永远不可能理解美国和中国人的思想和政策。
与此同时，世界其它地区才是真正的美中战场，而世界各地的国家都在纠结与哪一方结盟，以色列、俄罗斯和七国集团(G7)等国正在进行大量的“两面派贸易” ，它们正积极地试图利用美国和中国的利益，谋求自己的国家利益。 但不要假装看不见美中贸易战争的本质，主要是一场白人对亚洲种族的战争。

irfan haqqee
Most of the masses don't know media is biased. - Like：0

大多数人不知道媒体是有偏见的。

Bob upity
I have to assume Trump has been talking with many advisers about China and what their play will be. It will be interesting to see where this goes because it's essentially a sanction on China. China has many problems these days, the least of which is how to deal with Hong Kong. - Like：0

我不得不假设，特朗普有一直在与许多顾问讨论中国问题，以及也有计划。我们很有兴趣看看，事情会怎么发展，因为这实际上是对中国的制裁。 中国目前面临着许多问题，其中最不重要的就是香港问题。

Harry Chu
It is absurd to think that China is attempting to wait Trump out as the Democrats are perhaps more anti-chinese than the current administration. - Like：0

认为中国在等特朗普下台是荒谬的，因为民主党人可能比现任政府更反华。

Wado Waleli
Chu I agree with you, Harry, and I am very much opposed to viewing China one day as welcome trading partner and the next an evil adversary. Trump's charges against China are mostly spurious since most companies knew in advance what China's policies were and agreed to them, rightly or wrongly, to get or maintain business. Any legitimate issues could have been put before the WTO, but Trump refused to do that, thus signifying that there were no justifiable pretexts for his actions. This is something everyone in the world should recognize. If the U.S. is trying to thwart China's growth and continued economic success, that would be a very big mistake.
We have our own problems we've neglected for far too long, the biggest one being that we have become entrenched in corruption. If we feel threatened by China, or anyone for that matter, we would be best served to root out corruption at every level of government and start reaffirming and validating the democratic principles that made us a great power many decades ago. If we do that, we will restore ourselves to the vibrant democracy we once were. - Like：0

我同意你的看法，Harry，我非常反对今天把中国看作是欢迎的贸易伙伴，明天看作是邪恶的对手。特朗普对中国的指控大多是虚假的，因为大多数公司事先知道中国的政策是什么，并且为了获得或维持业务，同意了这些政策。任何合法的问题都可以提交世贸组织，但特朗普拒绝这么做，这意味着他的行动没有任何正当的借口。 这是世界上每个人都应该认识到的。如果美国试图阻挠中国的经济增长和持续的经济成功，那将是一个非常大的错误。
我们美国有自己长期忽视的问题，最大的问题是我们已经深陷腐败之中。 如果我们感受到来自中国或其他国家的威胁，最好的办法就是根除各级政府的腐败，并开始拿起几十年前让我们成为最强国家的民主原则。 如果我们这样做，我们将恢复我们曾经充满活力的民主。

Paul Charles
He's not the chosen one.... He's a very naughty boy!!! - Like：4

他不是天选之子......他只是一个非常淘气的男孩! ! ！

Jon Soo
Nobody point a gun to their head. 20 years ago, we did not expect them to replicate so well. We do this all over the world, but none of them can handle technology. We assume the same of China but we were wrong. - Like：0

没有人会用枪指着自己的头。 20年前，我们没想到中国能把技术复制得这么好。我们在世界各地都这样做，但是没有一个国家能够处理技术问题。我们想当然认为中国也是这样，但错了。

PU
Don’t ask trump to understand this.....way way beyond his IQ. - Like：3

不要要求特朗普理解这个问题... 这远远超出了他的智商。

Spectral lim
A wise man, but he'll never be heard. China hasn't really started retaliating yet. - Like：1

一个聪明的人，但他的话永远不会被听到。中国还没有真正开始报复。

Francis Madden
China will never lose face. - Like：3

中国永远不会丢了自己的脸。

L98FIERO
The belt and road initiative is good planning on the part of the Chinese and it seems Trump and Bannon played right into it, the fact that Trump started the trade war even helps the Chinese government get their citizens behind them. - Like：0

一带一路贸易组织的倡议对中国来说是一个很好的计划，看起来特朗普和班农在其中扮演了正确的角色——事实上，特朗普发动了贸易战，甚至帮助中国政府得到了他们公民的支持

Harry
We had a trade deal last May, and China backed out. Maybe China misread Trump and the USA?? So Far China seems to be suffering more Economically and Politically. - Like：2

去年五月，我们达成了一项贸易协议，但中国退出了。或许中国才是误读了特朗普和美国？到目前为止，中国似乎在经济和政治上受到的影响更大。

JAMES HOWARTH
america is right , china is wrong, america is weak and china is strong. too bad for america - Like：4

美国是对的，中国是错的，美国是弱的，中国是强的。 对美国来说真是太难了

parrmik
The thing is, the us feelsT that it has to deal with china now rather than later. There are plenty of other locations the us can source their cheap goods, without handing china the whole shabam.The problem is the time it takes for the new supply chain to be established. So called globalism was always a quick money grab on cheap foreign labour , supplying a established market. However , with the departure of manufacturing, also goes the wealth and buying power ;This shortsightedness has hollowed out once mighty manufacturing countries, leaving them service industry economies , with a declining wealth with less means to purchase those services. - Like：1

事情是这样的，美国认为它必须现在就与中国打交道，而不是以后。 美国还有很多其他地方可以买到廉价商品，而不用把整个市场拱手让给中国。 问题在于建立新的供应链所需的时间。 所谓的全球主义一直是快速掠夺廉价的外国劳动力，供应一个成熟的市场。 然而，随着制造业的离开，财富和购买力也随之消失。这种短视已经掏空了曾经强大的制造业国家，使它们成为服务业经济体，财富不断减少，购买这些服务的手段也越来越少。

Randall Albert
china has much more patience than trump time is on their side - Like：0

中国比特朗普更有耐心

irfan haqqee
You guys need to visit China. China is more technologically advanced then the West. Huawei has left the West behind in 5G technology. US doesn't know how to catch up so the only recourse is to put obstacles in its bid to expand in the West. Chinese have almost stop dealing in paper currency. Everything, even on the sidewalk, is bought and sold using a smartphone. The accusation that China is stealing technology is a hoax. China has the world largest network of high speed railway. US has no high speed railway running on any route. China has in the last decade brought millions out of poverty more than the population of US. It is using its wealth in building infrastructure to facilitate trading with the rest of the world. US is using its wealth to bomb and destroy the infrastructure of smaller nations instead of building and repairing its own crumbling infrastructure. What makes you think US is not monitoring its own citizenry. You know what US does to whistle blowers exposing US war crimes and clandestine activities to monitor illegally the conversation and communications of US citizens? - Like：4

你们应该去中国看看。 中国的技术比西方先进。 华为在5G 技术方面已经超过西方。 美国不知道如何迎头赶上，所以唯一的办法就是在其向西扩张的努力中设置障碍。 中国几乎停止了纸币的交易。 所有的东西，都是通过手机来交易的。 指责中国窃取技术是一个骗局，中国拥有世界上最大的高速铁路网。 在过去的十年中，中国使数百万人摆脱了贫困，比美国人口还要多。 中国正利用其财富建设基础设施，促进与世界其它国家的贸易。 美国正在利用其财富轰炸和摧毁较小国家的基础设施，而不是建设和修复自己破败的基础设施。是什么让你认为美国没有监测自己的公民。 你知道美国是怎么对待那些揭露美国战争罪行和秘密活动的告密者吗？

Kevin Bettinger
high speed rail is not necessary, West can catch up regarding 5g... - Like：0

高速铁路没有必要，西方是可以迎头赶上华为的5g...

Malcolm Ledger
Aeroplanes are not necessary, either. Or cars. Bicycles and horses should do for the 21st century. And zeppelins. - Like：2

飞机也是不必要的或者汽车。自行车和马车应该更适合21世纪。还有飞艇。

R E
Blah blah. The so called “experts” like this guy have been 100% wrong from the beginning of this. I’m not a Trump guy, but on this issue he is dragging Xi and China around by the scruff of the neck. It’s way overdue and China needs to be dealt with. - Like：0

瞎逼逼一些废话，像这种的所谓的“专家高管”从一开始就是完全错误的。我不是特朗普的追随者，但在这个问题上，他掐着中国的脖子。早就应该这样做了，需要解决中国的问题。

herm on
do not blame china for your u.s deficit, blame your self, because you are keep on buying even you don't need it.due to very cheap, so you have no savings. - Like：5

不要把美国的赤字归咎于中国，要归咎于你们自己，因为一直在买买买，你买它只是因为便宜，而不是需要，所以没有存款。

Thomas Wanado
Blame the petrodollar. Without it, the US wouldn't be running a trade deficit since 1970. But don't worry - the petrodollar system will come to an end in the following years. Then the market forces will bring the US trade into balance again. - Like：0

应该归咎于石油美元。如果没有它，美国自1970年以来就不会出现贸易逆差。 但不要担心——石油美元体系将在未来几年走向终结。 然后，市场将使美国贸易恢复平衡。

Kaze
China saved the US Economy in 2008 by buying our treasury. I don't think they will help us again the way we keep demonizing them with unsubstantiated accusations. I have a feeling China will eventually cut ties with US as they move ahead with their Belt and Road project that will link Europe, Africa, and whole of Asia in mega trading block. I can't wait to see what America and China looks like in the next 2 decades when both cease to be trading partners. - Like：0

2008年的金融危机，中国通过购买美国国债拯救了美国经济。我不认为他们会再一次帮助我们，我们不断地用毫无根据的指控将他们妖魔化。我有一种感觉，中国最终会切断与美国的关系，因为他们将继续推进他们的一带一路项目，该项目将连接欧洲，非洲和整个亚洲的大型贸易区。 我迫不及待地想看到，美国和中国在未来20年不再是贸易伙伴时，会是什么样子了。

urb8t
I hope trump is NOT our last hope or we'll be doom. - Like：0

我希望特朗普不是我们最后的希望，否则我们就玩完了。