[2021-10-06]防务论坛：解放军今日派出52架次军机进入台西南空域，“创单日新高”

Daniel808
52 Guys
When that day comes

（楼主）52架，兄弟们
当那一天来临的时候

akramishaqkhan
Why this is Taiwans AIZ (Air Identification Zone) makes little sense to me. China has all the right to fly in this area without Taiwan making a big deal of this, nor requiring Chinese planes to identify themselves.

为什么这是台湾空中识别区，对我来说毫无意义。中国有权在这一带飞行，台湾不必对此大惊小怪，也不需要中国飞机表明身份。

Daniel808
That's it.
But Taiwan keep crying every time Chinese Fighters entered their ADIZ

就是这样。
但是每次中国战斗机进入他们的防空识别区，台湾都会哭个不停。

Brainsucker
China has already has that many J-16?

中国已经有那么多J-16了？

Daniel808
Last info from their forum, more than 200 Unit

来自他们论坛的最新信息，超过200架

shi12jun
It is said that J-20 has also been to the sky over Taiwan Island. It was not spotted by radar.

据说J20也曾经到过台湾岛的上空，没有被雷达发现。

Arsalan345
Useless conflict. China should think about americans. They are real threat and not this tiny taiwan.

无谓的冲突。中国应该顾虑美国人。他们才是真正的威胁，而不是这个小小的台湾。

redtom
Always remember, you pick battles for your enemy's , not them.

永远要记住，你为你的敌人选择战斗，而不是他们。

Daniel808
Taiwan island is kinda like Manifest Destiny for All Chinese people.
In Chinese people eyes, Taiwan island is their territory still occupied by foreign puppet and need to be liberated no matter what happen.
Of course Chinese people realize, that their rival is americans. But this Taiwan island is an unfinished business

台湾岛对于所有的中国人来说就像是昭昭天命。
在中国人看来，台湾岛是他们的领土，但仍然被外国傀儡占领，无论发生什么都需要解放。
当然，中国人民意识到，他们的对手是美国人，但是这个台湾岛是一项未完成的事业。

LeGenD
True heavyweight champions of PLAAF are J-16 variants and J-20 variants respectively. Remainder are force-multiplier options with distinct specializations in large part. I pointed out this fact back in May
J-16 is the most advanced Flanker in the world, and it is expected to be at the forefront of Chinese military operations in any theater. J-16D is ready for combat operations as well.
Taiwanese defenses are no longer up to the task. They are caught napping.

中国空军真正的重量级冠军分别是J-16改和J-20改。其余的大部分是具有不同专门化的力量倍增选项。我在5月份的时候就指出了这个事实。
J16是世界上最先进的侧卫战机，预计将在中国军事行动的任何战区中处于前沿。J-16D也已经准备好了进行作战行动。
台湾的防御工事已经不能胜任这项任务了，他们毫无准备。

Daniel808
Very unfortunate, US abandon the Tomcats and choosing Super Hornet instead.
If Super Tomcat flying today, it would be a nice friend for J-16.
Both are bad4ss in their own league

非常遗憾的是，美国放弃了“雄猫”而选择了“超级大黄蜂”。
如果“超级雄猫”今天能飞行，它会是J-16的好对手。
它们都是自己圈子里的佼佼者。

LeGenD
Tomcat was a brilliant design no doubt. A modernized Tomcat would be a 'monster'.
Super Hornet is suitable for providing cover to forces on the ground and at sea. It can also provide cues to long-range cruise missiles to engage designated targets on land and at sea.
Range of Super Hornet is limited so it can help defend geographical spaces like Taiwan or Syria in terms of size. Airborne refueling platforms will be needed to expand operational coverage of Super Hornet above large geographical spaces otherwise.
Airborne refueling platforms are not practical in heavily defended spaces. For example, China have considerable defenses and J-20 will posit significant threat to airborne refueling platforms above and around China due to its LO characteristics and payload capacity.

雄猫无疑是一个杰出的设计，一架现代化的雄猫将是一个“怪物”。
超级大黄蜂适合为地面和海上的部队提供掩护。它还可以提供远程巡航导弹的信号，使其能够攻击陆地和海上的指定目标。
超级大黄蜂的航程有限，所以它可以帮助保卫一定的地理空间，如台湾或叙利亚大小的面积。不然，为了扩大超级大黄蜂在大范围地理空间上的作战覆盖范围，还需要空中加油平台。
空中加油平台在防御严密的空间中不实用。例如，中国拥有强大的防御能力，J-20由于其低空特性和有效载荷能力，将对中国上空和周边的空中加油平台构成重大威胁。

White and Green with M/S
super hornet is far far more advance/mature than J16

超级大黄蜂比歼16先进/成熟得多

Beast
It's has smaller payload and range than J-16. The nose cone of J-16 are also far bigger to house a very big and powerful AESA than F-18.

它的有效载荷和航程都比J16小。J16的鼻锥也比F18大得多，可以容纳一台非常大而强力的有源相控阵雷达。

White and Green with M/S
J16D is China first dedicated electronic attack jet, i mean fighter jets, China have big Y8 series of electronic attack though, but USA developing these kind of jet since at least early to late 60s.

J16D是中国的第一架专用电子攻击机，我是说战斗机，虽然中国有大型运8系列的电子攻击机，但美国至少从60年代初到后期就开始研发这种飞机了。

Vapnope
I believe that Taiwan and China will find a middle ground so that a war can be avoided. These tactics are serve as a warning in my humble opinion.
Btw Taiwan doesn't have American ground radars?

我相信，台湾和中国大陆会找到一个中间立场，以避免战争。以我拙见，这些手段是一种警告。
顺便问一下，台湾没有美国的地面雷达吗？

LeGenD
I hope there is no war.
Taiwan have decent radar coverage. They can detect and track movements of Chinese armed forces around Taiwan but what is the contingency plan when shooting commences? Some of those big ticket items of Taiwan are in danger of being knocked out at an early stage.
Taiwan might have to strike at Chinese military positions including threatening cruise and ballistic missile launchers before the Chinese can take out as many big ticket items as possible. But Taiwan does not have Hsiung Feng IIE cruise missile in large quantities in the present.
China is a military juggernaut with its annual spending on defense exceeding 250 billion USD mark in the present.
Given the geographical proximity of China to Taiwan, the former can strike at Taiwan at leisure and on a frequent basis. China can wear down Taiwanese defenses in the process.
Taiwan does have a challenging geography and some well-dug defensive arrangements. However, Taiwan wasted lot of time in terms of developing its counter-offensive capabilities. China was hard at work on the other hand.
Taiwan is in dire need of a large number of modernized defense systems at earliest but USA is too slow to arm Taiwan; Taiwan will receive PAC-3 MSE systems in 2025. Like seriously?
Taiwan might not have much time, however.
Taiwan's own motivation level for potential war with China is important consideration. If Taiwanese armed forces (and Public) are determined to fight then invasion of Taiwan will be a costly undertaking on the ground. This is unclear however.
Taiwan might be betting on international intervention to counter China if attacked but this is a gamble. If Taiwan show promise in the battlefield then Japan and USA might decide to support Taiwan but this is speculation at this point.

我希望没有战争。
台湾有不错的雷达覆盖范围。他们可以侦测和跟踪解放军在台湾周围的活动，但是当开火的时候，应急计划是什么？台湾的一些高价项目可能在早期阶段有被打掉的风险。
台湾可能要在被中国(大陆)尽可能多地打掉高价项目之前，对中国(大陆)的军事阵地进行打击，包括威胁性的巡航导弹和弹道导弹发射器。但是台湾目前还没有大量的雄风IIE巡航导弹。
中国是一个军事强国，目前每年的国防开支超过2500亿美元。
鉴于中国(大陆)与台湾的地理位置相近，前者可以从容而频繁地攻击台湾。在这个过程中，中国(大陆)可以削弱台湾的防御力量。
台湾的地理位置确实具有挑战性，和一些周密的防御安排。然而，台湾浪费了大量的时间来发展其反攻能力。另一方面，中国(大陆)则在不断发展。
台湾迫切需要大量的现代化防御系统，但美国武装台湾的速度太慢，台湾将在2025年接收PAC-3 MSE系统。说真的？
然而，台湾可能没有多少时间了。
台湾自身对与中国(大陆)的潜在战争的动机水平，是一个重要的考虑因素。如果台湾的武装力量(和公众)决心战斗，那么进入台湾将是一项代价高昂的地面行动。然而，这一点尚不清楚。
台湾可能正押注于一旦遭到攻击，国际社会将进行干预，以对抗中国(大陆)，但这是一场赌博。如果台湾在战场上表现出希望，那么日本和美国可能会决定支持台湾，但目前这只是猜测。

kankan326
You don't understand Taiwanese. They are completely brainwashed by the west. They have zeal of convert and hate everything about China. There is no way for peaceful reunification. When China mainland was in most dangerous covid time in 2020, Taiwan banned facemask export.

你不了解台湾人。他们完全被西方洗脑了。他们热衷于皈依，讨厌中国的一切。和平统一是不可能的。2020年，当中国大陆处于新冠疫情最危险的时候，台湾禁止了口罩的出口。

Daniel808
Ahh..that time I still remember very clearly
In less than a week China successfully retooling their industries. And pumping dozens of millions of medical mask every single day

啊... 我还记得很清楚那时候
在不到一周的时间里，中国成功地重组了他们的产业。而且每天输送数以千万计的医用口罩

Beast
No when u face death and starvation. Trust me, something cannot be fooled. Don't be misled by greenpan party media that most taiwanese are pro independence.
Why so many taiwanese artist work in mainland China? That itself is already an indication of some facts.

不，当你面临死亡和饥饿的时候。相信我，有些东西骗不了人的。不要被绿营党媒体误导，以为大多数台湾人都支持独立。
为什么这么多台湾艺术家在中国大陆工作？这本身就已经表明了一些事实。

Daniel808
It's only a matter of time.
In less than 5 years from now on, the Power of China would be too Overwhelming for them

这只是时间问题。
在不到5年的时间里，中国的力量对他们来说会是压倒性的。

Beast
The foolish taiwanese need to realize peace with mainland China is the only solution. By provoking PRC with independence is seeking it's own doom only.

愚蠢的台湾人需要认识到与中国大陆和平是唯一的解决办法。用独立来挑衅中国(大陆)，只是在自寻死路。

Daniel808
34x Heavy Fighter J-16
2x Heavy Fighter Su-30
2x KJ-500 AWACS
2x Y-8 ASW
12X Strategic Bomber H-6K
A Powerful Task Force, that even can Destroy a Medium sized country

34架次重型战斗机J-16
2架次重型战斗机Su-30
2架次KJ-500预警机
2架次Y-8反潜机
12架次战略轰炸机H-6K
一支强大的特遣部队，这甚至可以摧毁一个中等规模的国家。

LeGenD
Indeed.

的确如此。

Beast
Soon , PLAAF fighter plane will fly over Taipei skies.

不久，中国空军战斗机将飞越台北上空。

Daniel808
Day before yesterday 38x
Yesterday 39x
Today 52x
This is show us, that Chinese Military Have very High Combat Readiness Rate. Even during Peacetime like this

前天是38架次
昨天是39架次
今天是52架次
这向我们展示了，即使在这样的和平时期，中国军队也有很高的战备完好率。

White and Green with M/S
And world will not react if invade and capture Taiwan??

如果进攻并夺回了台湾，世界不会有什么反应吗？

Daniel808
Do u think anyone stupid enough to be cannon fodder for Taiwan island?
Do u want your son or your family died for that island?
Taiwan is very close to China.
A barrage of Missiles, Rocket, and Artillery launched from Mainland only need a minutes away to land on Taiwan island. There is no place to hide

你认为有谁会蠢到成为台湾岛的炮灰吗？
你希望你的儿子或者你的家人为那个岛而死吗？
台湾离中国(大陆)非常近。
从大陆发射的一连串导弹、火箭和火炮只需要几分钟就能到达台湾岛。无处可藏。

Beast
Yes. What can they do? Sanction the world factory and smash it's own foot?
Any attack on mainland China will triiger WW3. China has proven H-bomb and DF-41 ICBM. Who want to seek death for a small little Taiwan?
Go ahead!

是的，他们不会有什么反应。他们能做什么呢？制裁世界工厂，砸自己的脚吗？
对中国大陆的任何攻击都将是第三次世界大战的导火索。中国有久经考验的氢弹和东风-41洲际弹道导弹。谁想为一个小小的台湾而死？
去吧！

White and Green with M/S
im not talking about attacking mailand china, but to stop aggression against Taiwan, if China have H bomb US have more

我不是在说攻击中国大陆，而是说停止对台湾的攻击，如果中国有氢弹，那美国有更多。

Beast
What is the point of more than China? When China has enough to destroy them too plus the fact, China delivery system are much better with DF-17 and DF-41...
Nobody want to seek death over a small little island called Taiwan. This is human nature. You can fool yourself bragging abt how west will do anything for Taiwan.
Why didn't those west even recognized Taiwan as country in first place but stand affirm with one China policy? You are contradicting yourself.

比中国多有啥意义？当中国有足够的能力摧毁他们的时候，再加上这一事实，中国东风-17和东风-41的投射系统要好得多...
没有人想为一个叫做台湾的小岛而死。这是人的本性。你可以自欺欺人地吹嘘西方会为台湾做任何事。
为什么那些西方国家从一开始就不承认台湾是国家，而坚持一个中国政策呢？你这是在自相矛盾。

zhxy
The US is developing ballistic missile defense systems, and it has more nuclear weapons than China. Surely there are many people who will claim that the interception probability is not 100% or that just a few hundred warheads is enough to destroy the world. But the advantage is in favor of the US, that is true.
Maybe the American people don't want to die for Taiwan, but what if alzheimer made Biden start to be silly and make an impulsive decision like Trump.
That's why China needs to prepare for all scenarios.

美国正在发展弹道导弹防御系统，它拥有的核武器比中国还多。当然，有很多人会声称拦截概率不是百分百，或者仅仅几百枚弹头就足以摧毁世界。但是这种优势是有利于美国的，这是事实。
也许美国人民不想为台湾而死，但如果痴呆症让拜登开始犯傻，像特朗普一样做出冲动的决定呢。
这就是为什么中国需要为各种情况做好准备。

Beast
No country , even the size of US can take a few H-bomb warhead hitm. Radiation side effect will slowly devour the remaining population. It's a slow death for the survivor. China nuclear capabilities definitely is capable of hitting US mainland.
It will be naive to think US can escape unhurt from China nuclear retaliation. DF-17 is non interceptable. It's path is unpredicted and flies at mach 6-7 in the final terminal phase.
DF-41 throws 10 warhead at you and not to mention few DF-41 throw at same target. It is impossible to intercept all warhead.

没有一个国家即使是美国这样大小的国家，能够承受几枚氢弹的打击。辐射的副作用将慢慢吞噬剩下的人口。对于幸存者来说，这是一个缓慢的死亡过程。中国的核能力绝对有能力打击美国本土。
如果认为美国可以不受中国核报复的伤害，那就太天真了。东风-17是无法拦截的。它的路径是无法预测的，在最末端以6-7马赫的速度飞行。
一枚东风-41可以向你投射10枚弹头，更不用说几枚东风-41向同一目标发射了。拦截所有弹头是不可能的。

zhxy
If nuclear war is inevitable, this scenario is more effective.
China is completely desperate, has no hope for the future and is ready to accept destruction. He built 40,000 nuclear warheads.
10,000 warheads attack the US
10 000 warheads to attack Europe
10,000 warheads were used to hit Africa, South America, and Australia.
The remaining 10,000 warheads are used to detonate in the air and under the ocean. Completely destroy the global ecosystem.
Taiwan independence, then the world will end.

如果核战争无法避免，下面这种假设更有可能。
中国已经完全绝望，对未来不抱希望，并准备接受毁灭。他将制造4万枚核弹头。
1万枚攻击美国
1万枚攻击欧洲
1万枚用来攻击非洲、南美洲和澳大利亚。
剩下的1万枚用于在空中和海底引爆。全球生态系统将彻底破坏。
如果台湾独立，世界就会迎来末日。

White and Green with M/S
lol no country on earth can built 40,000 nukes

哈哈，地球上没有一个国家能造出4万枚核弹的。

Beast
It's mutual destruction.
Will US died for little Taiwan, tell me? Why US never fight Russia for Crimea of Ukraine? Becos it's not worth dying for a small piece of land. You can continue delude yourself.

这是相互的毁灭。
告诉我，美国会为小台湾而死吗？为什么美国从不为乌克兰的克里米亚与俄罗斯作战？因为为了一小块土地而死是不值得的。你可以继续欺骗自己。

F-22Raptor
US is set to begin flight testing its next gen ICBM in 2023.

美国计划在2023年开始测试其下一代洲际弹道导弹。

F-22Raptor
You are hopelessly naive if you believe the US and the world will just sit back. And Chinese systems aren’t better.
The US has already successfully demonstrated a near ICBM ranged hypersonic strike weapon at Mach 17 with the LRHW Dark Eagle.
China doesn’t have the ability to overcome US overmatch capabilities, much less when it’s integrated with Japanese/Aus/Taiwanese forces.

如果你认为美国和世界会袖手旁观，那你就太天真了。中国的系统也没有更好。
美国已经成功地用“暗鹰”以17马赫的速度(译注：瞎扯的，实际报道是5马赫)展示了一种接近洲际弹道导弹的远程高超音速打击武器。
中国没有能力战胜美国的优越实力，更不用说当美国和日本/澳大利亚/台湾军队结合了。

Daniel808
*You are not dare to touch Chinese Mainland Territory even in that time they are still poor (1950s Korean war) when their troops decimated your 8th Army near Lake Changjin. And again in Ch'ongch'on River, famous to be known as The Longest Retreat in US History.
*You abandon South Vietnam too in 1973.
*You only lip service when Russia invaded Georgia.
*Again another lip service when Russia invaded Ukraine, and take Crimea.
*And the last one, you running away when facing Taliban.
But now you barking to Invade Gigantic China & Risking a Nuclear Winter. Yeah rite you are really funny

* 你们不敢触及中国大陆领土，即使在他们还很贫穷的时候(1950年代的朝鲜战争)，他们的部队在长津湖附近消灭了你们的第八军。还有在清川江，这是以美国历史上最漫长的撤退而闻名。
* 1973年你们也抛弃了南越。
* 当俄罗斯入侵格鲁吉亚时，你们只是嘴上说说而已。
* 当俄罗斯入侵乌克兰并占领克里米亚时，又来一次嘴皮功夫。
* 还有最后一次，面对塔利班你们逃跑了。
但是现在你们却叫嚣着要入侵幅员辽阔的中国并冒着核冬天的危险。是的，没错，你们真的很可笑。

Beast
Indeed the world will watch and do nothing. If nothing is done for Crimea. It will be the same for Taiwan.
Nobody will died for little Taiwan if it's not their business.

事实上，世界会袖手旁观。如果对克里米亚什么都不做。那么对台湾来说也是一样。
如果这不关他们的事，没有人会为小小台湾而死。

F-22Raptor
Crimea is a backwater compared to the strategic importance of Taiwan. There is no comparison.

与台湾的战略重要性相比，克里米亚是一潭死水，没有可比性。

Beast
How strategic important when Crimea is the choking point for Russia? It's not about whatever strategic important but just lack of will to defend this Insignificant piece of land by the west.

克里米亚是俄罗斯的咽喉之地，你觉得战略意义有多重要？这不是什么重要的战略问题，而是西方缺乏保护这片微不足道的土地的意愿。

White and Green with M/S
Its not insignificant part for them Taiwan is a part of great game against China

对他们来说，台湾并不是无足轻重的，而是对抗中国(大陆)的重要游戏的一部分。

zhxy
There are three scenarios for the Taiwan war:
Scenario 1: US does not interfere, China wins.
Scenario 2: The US and its allies intervene but China wins, the US and its allies withdraw.
Scenario 3: US and allies intervene, China fails. In this case, nuclear weapons are the only solution. China will use nuclear weapons to attack all countries that directly or indirectly interfere in the Taiwan issue. The result of a nuclear war is that all countries directly and indirectly involved in this war will be destroyed. If China loses, everyone loses. That is why China needs to build as many nuclear warheads as possible.

对台湾的战争有三种情况：
情景1：美国不干涉，中国获胜。
情景2：美国及其盟友进行干预，但中国获胜，美国及其盟友撤出。
情景3：美国及其盟友进行干预，中国失败。在这种情况下，核武器是唯一的解决办法。中国将使用核武器打击任何直接或间接干涉台湾问题的国家。核战争的结果是，所有直接和间接卷入这场战争的国家都将被摧毁。如果中国输了，所有人都会输。这就是为什么中国需要制造尽可能多的核弹头。

Beast
If a war between China and US happened. A war situation will trigger. Iphone will cease shipping from China. Apple stock will nose dived. Wall street will tumble. This is the thing nobody wants to see...
If Taiwan is being invaded. The world just watch. Everything goes normal. Wall Street will be saved too. Life goes on as normal.

如果中国和美国之间发生战争。战争局势将会触发。iPhone将停止从中国出货。苹果的股价将暴跌。华尔街将会暴跌。这是没有人想看的情况...
如果台湾遭到进攻。全世界就看着。一切都很正常。华尔街也能得救。生活照常进行。

White and Green with M/S
Too much wishful thinking

太多一厢情愿的想法

Beast
It's not wishful thinking but the reality. Why would u want Taiwan crisis balloon into WW3. Do u enjoy self destruction of world?

这不是一厢情愿的想法，而是现实。你为什么想让台湾危机膨胀到第三次世界大战呢。难道你喜欢自我毁灭的世界吗？

Zsari
The point is nuclear powers do not go to war directly against each other. Taiwan is at best a proxy, and its situated too close to China to be defendable. That's why there is still a 2nd and 3rd island chain as breeching of the first is inevitable even in US strategic calculation.

关键是核大国之间不会直接发生战争。台湾充其量只是一个代理人，而且它与中国大陆的距离太近，无法防御。这就是为什么第二和第三岛链仍然存在的原因，因为即使在美国的战略计划中，第一岛链的打破也是不可避免的。

White and Green with M/S
yes you're right bro but what about joint operation (USA/EU) to stop Chinese aggression on Taiwan

是的，你说得对，兄弟，但是美国和欧盟的联合行动，来阻止中国(大陆)对台湾的进攻，这又如何呢。

Zsari
EU is too far away to really be meaningful, nor does its interest align with that of the US, especially on the issue of Taiwan. Besides like I've said, Taiwan is simply too close to China, the response time to intervene is not there. By the time EU can muster a taskforce to the area, the fighting would long be over. I don't see anyone capable of or willing to conduct an amphibious assault on the island after it already fall into China's hand. Someone pointed out Crimea, and the similarity is on how pointless any intervention would be once the control of the island is lost.

欧盟距离中国太远，没有真正的意义，它的利益也不符合美国的利益，尤其是在台湾问题上。除此之外，正如我所说，台湾离中国(大陆)太近了，干预的反应时间根本不存在。等到欧盟能够在该地区组建特遣部队时，战斗早就结束了。在台湾已经落入中国(大陆)手中之后，我不认为会有任何人有能力或愿意在岛上进行两栖作战。有人指出了克里米亚，两者的相似之处在于，一旦失去对该岛的控制，任何干预都会变得毫无意义。

PurpleButcher
China can and will reclaim Taiwan, sooner or later. Taiwan joining US block or having Martian allies wont matter. No one risks its own land for the sake of its undefendable ally thousands of miles away.
Will any US President be able to convince his nation that we should risk a nuclear attack on california from china cause of an Island in South China Sea? Los Angeles vs Taipei? which is more important? Yes China will also be attacked but would mutual destruction of US & China be worth an Island? NO!
So China is just waiting for the most opportune time when it can reclaim with least loss of life and damage to economy. Its a question of WHEN not IF!!!

中国迟早会收复台湾。台湾加入美国阵营或拥有火星盟友都不重要。没有人会为了千里之外无法防御的盟友而拿自己的土地冒险。
有哪位美国总统能够说服他的国家，我们应该因为南海的一个岛屿而冒着加州被中国核攻击的风险？洛杉矶vs台北？哪个更重要？是的，中国也会受到攻击，但是为了一座岛屿，美国和中国的相互毁灭是值得的吗？不可能！
因此，中国只是在等待最佳的时机，以最少的人员伤亡和经济损失来收复台湾。这是“什么时候”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题！