[2021-03-14]Quora海外网友：中国能帮助印度真正成为全球制造业中心吗？

Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam former Chief Manager at Central Bank of India (1987-2017)
Can China help India become a Global Manufacturing Hub?
Yes
Will China help India become a Global Manufacturing Hub?
NO
First off - What is a Global Manufacturing Hub
A Global Manufacturing Hub is a self contained unit where you have (a) All the components for manufacturing produced locally and available easily (b) All the technology and skill for the manufacturing of the product locally and available easily (c) The Logistics and Distribution of the Products to various centres and subsequent shipping to various places.
Lets see the Global Manufacturing Hubs across the world so far:-
Great Britain - Until 1920
United States - 1936 to 1984
China - 2012 to Present
One day Wage Bills will become higher and China will start farming away most of its manufacturing (Like US did to Japan or UK did to the US). China already has the candidates ready - Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, African Countries.

【回答】前印度中央银行总经理(1987年-2017年)
中国能帮助印度成为全球制造业中心吗？
能
中国会帮助印度成为全球制造业中心吗？
不会
首先，什么是全球制造业中心。
全球制造业中心是一个自包含的单位，在其中你拥有(a)在本地生产且容易获得的所有制造零件(b)在本地生产且容易获得的所有制造产品的技术和技能(c)产品的物流和分销到各个中心，然后运往各个地方。
让我们看看迄今为止全球制造业中心：
英国：直到1920年
美国：1936年至1984年
中国：2012年至今
总有一天，工资账单会越来越高，中国将开始农业化，大部分制造业将从中国转移出去(就像美国对日本的做法或英国对美国的做法那样)。中国已经准备好了候选国家：孟加拉国、斯里兰卡、非洲国家。

Now of (a), (b) and (c)
India is rapidly hoping to achieve (c) - which is Logistics and Distribution of Products to various centres and shipping to various places.
They are manufacturing Roads, Expressways, Corridors etc and hopefully by 2030 they will have an integrated Logistic and Distribution network.
However (a) and (b) are impossible to achieve at any stage in the near future.
Thus a Global Manufacturing Hub is a distant dream and is likely improbable.
So instead of aspiring to become a Global Manufacturing Hub, If India can focus on Quality Control for the Domestic Market - and partner with China on the Belt Road Initiative and start distributing Chinese Products to various destinations , it would reduce the transport time by roughly around 35%.

现在来看看(a)、(b)和(c)
印度正在迅速希望实现(c)，即向各中心提供物流和产品分销，并将产品运往各地。
他们正在建造道路，高速公路，走廊等，希望到2030年，他们将有一个综合物流和分销网络。
然而，(a)和(b)在不久的将来的任何阶段都不可能实现。
因此，全球制造中心是一个遥不可及的梦想，而且可能性不大。
因此，如果印度能够专注于国内市场的质量控制，并与中国合作推进“一带一路”倡议，开始将中国产品分销到不同的目的地，而不是立志成为全球制造业中心，那么运输时间将缩短约35% 。

This would give Indian Transporters a lot of initiatives, Jobs, would get us better trucks and would generate a lot of handling revenue.
With this revenue, India can invest more into its Domestic manufacture and create good products for the domestic market and raise quality and productivity.
Best of all - China becomes dependent on India for the first time. If after a year - India decides to use its own “Nuclear Option” and decides not to transport Chinese Goods across its corridors - China would be in a bad position.
Conclusion
It would be much better to partner with China on the BRI and become its Logistics and Distribution Partner earning precious revenue, enough to pay off the Infrastructure Projects, and use the revenue to develop productivity and quality of Domestic Manufacturers.
A Global Manufacturing Hub would not be realistic.
I presume Africa would be the next Global Manufacturing Hub. They have the Space and Size. Maybe in 20 years they could develop the skills.

这将给印度运输公司带来许多自发性和工作，将为我们带来更好的卡车，并将产生大量的运输收入。
有了这些收入，印度可以在国内制造业投入更多资金，为国内市场创造优质产品，提高质量和生产力。
最重要的是，中国将第一次开始依赖印度。如果一年后，印度决定使用自己的“核选择”，并决定不在其走廊上运输中国商品，那么中国的处境将会很糟糕。
总结
更好的做法是，在一带一路上与中国合作进行全球零售业务，成为其物流和分销合作伙伴，获得宝贵的收入，足以支付基础设施项目，并利用这些收入提高国内制造商的生产力和质量，这将是更好的选择。
建立全球制造业中心是不现实的。
我认为非洲将成为下一个全球制造业中心。他们有空间和规模。也许在20年内，他们就可以培养出这些技能。
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Sibasish Panda
sir i disagree with you, we should not become a partner in BRI ,with china.
if we aim to achieve short term gain ,then partnering with china is beneficial yet if we want long term gain we have to do it ourselves
no one is going to come and do it for us

【回复】先生，我不同意你的观点，我们不应该和中国成为合作伙伴。
如果我们的目标是获得短期利益，那么与中国合作是有益的，但如果我们想获得长期利益，我们必须自己做。
没有人会来帮助我们。

Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam
We need immediate money
That will give us revenue
Or else tomorrow billionaires and common man will have inequality index of 2500

【作者回复】我们急需资金
这将给我们带来收入
否则明天的亿万富翁和普通人的不平等指数将达到2500

Bruno Uzoka
Short-term profits,huh? Be well.

【回复】短期利益，嗯? 保重。

Lance Chambers
Without the necessary funds India will not be able to grow. It’s not possible to build a thriving, high tech, nation without investment. Where will it come from?

【回复】如果没有必要的资金，印度将无法实现增长。没有投资，建设一个繁荣、高科技的国家是不可能的。它将从何而来？

Jiangjunling
Will China help India become a global manufacturing hub?
The answer, of course, is no!
China will not invest heavily in India for the simple reason that India is not safe for Chinese capital!
In fact the China Development Bank has limited its funding guarantees for investments in India!
One Belt And One Road is not suitable for India either unless India is strong enough to completely control the Indian Ocean!
If India is not able to control the Indian Ocean completely, India is not an inescapable country for global maritime trade.
The competition between China and India in the Indian Ocean will be more intense in the next decade than the confrontation in the Himalayas!

【回复】中国会帮助印度成为全球制造业中心吗？
答案当然是否定的！
中国不会在印度大量投资，原因很简单，印度对中国的资本来说不安全！
事实上，中国国家开发银行已经限制了在印度投资的资金担保！
“一带一路”也不适合印度，除非印度足够强大，能够完全控制印度洋！
如果印度不能完全控制印度洋，印度也不是全球海上贸易不可回避的国家。
未来十年，中国和印度在印度洋的竞争将比喜马拉雅山对峙更加激烈！

Aditya Pratap Bhuyan
Is BRI generating revenue? Revenue for whom? Pakistan borrowed money from China to build roads in Pakistan so that China can transport goods on these roads whose security is responsibility of Pakistan. India is no fool.

【回复】一带一路能产生收入？谁的收入？巴基斯坦向中国借钱，在巴基斯坦修建道路，以便中国能够在这些道路上运输货物，而这些道路的安全是巴基斯坦的责任。印度不是傻瓜。

Nathan James
Pakistan is no fool, either.

【回复】巴基斯坦也不是傻瓜。

Aditya Pratap Bhuyan
Really, That is why she went bankrupt by taking loans to build roads so that Chinese vehicles could move on those roads and Chinese construction companies could build the roads by taking money from Pakistan.

【回复】事实上，这就是为什么她破产了，因为她贷款修建道路，这样中国的车辆就可以在那些道路上行驶，而中国的建筑公司就可以从巴基斯坦获得资金来修建道路。

Lance Chambers
I believe you lack an understanding of how B&R is funded. Most of B&R already existed before Xi suggested the idea. China only pays to ‘fill in’ roads, etc. that are vital links to join sections of the network.
Even India has offered it’s NH network to be used because Modi understands how critical trade is for India and B&R offers opportunities for India to trade all over the world.
B&R is not just roads, it is rail, shipping, ports, airports, etc. and it exists all over Africa, and South America and a host of small island nations are also benefiting - it is not just for the wealthy nations of the world.
-
Xi and the CCP realised that the greatest creator of peace is a full belly, a home, and a job that will give you a good quality of life.
If China seeks anything it is peace because conflict disrupts trade which is Chinas life-blood and guarantees the future of the Chinese people.

【回复】我相信你对一带一路的资金来源缺乏了解。在中国提出这个想法之前，一带一路的大部分已经存在了。中国只支付“填平”道路的费用，这些道路是连接网络的重要环节。
甚至印度也提供了自己的NH道路网来使用，因为莫迪明白贸易对印度有多重要，而一带一路为印度提供了在世界各地进行贸易的机会。
一带一路不仅仅是公路，它还包括铁路、航运、港口、机场等等。一带一路遍布于整个非洲，南美洲和许多小岛屿国家也从中受益，它不只是让世界上的富裕国家受益。
中国和中共意识到，最伟大的和平创造者是一个饱足的肚子，一个家和一份能给你带来高质量生活的工作。
如果中国在寻求什么，那就是和平，因为冲突会破坏作为中国生命线的贸易，这是中国人民未来的保障。

Aditya Pratap Bhuyan
China expects India to buy its goods and at the same time to surrender its border. So China never believed in peace, because it has issues with all its neighbours. Now, if India joins BRI what India will send through it? If any port, airports are being built, they must generate enough revenue. We know what happened to the Sri Lankan Airport and Sea Port.

【回复】中国希望印度购买其商品，同时放弃其边境。因此，中国从来不相信和平，因为它与所有邻国都有问题。现在，如果印度加入一带一路，印度将通过它输送什么？如果要建港口、机场，它们就必须能产生足够的收益才会建。我们知道斯里兰卡机场和海港发生了什么。

Venkata Rao
But there is lot of political instability in Africa. How can China get round this problem?

【回复】但是非洲的政治很不稳定，中国怎样才能解决这个问题呢？

Lance Chambers
If you can offer a brighter future then nations will grab it and use the improved quality of life not for war or conflict but to collaborate because it is through collaboration that a better life emerges.
The problem is dictatorships where a small cadre of people seek to steal everything they can.
Eliminate the dictators and disenfranchise their ‘troops’ and they die.
The problem is that there will always be evil people but enough good people can stop them.

【回复】如果你能提供一个更光明的未来，那么各国就会抓住这个机会，用于改善生活质量，不是为了战争或冲突，而是为了合作，因为只有通过合作才能创造出更好的生活。
问题在于独裁统治，一小撮人试图窃取他们所能窃取的一切。
消灭独裁者，剥夺他们的“军队”权利，他们就会死。
问题是，邪恶的人总是存在，但是足够多的好人可以阻止他们。

Priyajit Ghosh
That’s the biggest reason of Aftrica’s worst situation.

【回复】这是非洲处境非常糟糕的最大原因。

Ismail
Next global manufacturing hub is going to be South East Asia ✌️ Indonesia,Malaysia,Singapore,Vietnam all these nations can replace China 🤗

【回复】下一个全球制造业中心将是东南亚。
印度尼西亚，马来西亚，新加坡，越南，所有这些国家都可以取代中国。

Lance Chambers
Please don’t forget that RCEP has shown a model of a far better future given the size and wealth that is already represented by the member nations let alone by the future potential.

【回复】请不要忘记，RCEP(区域全面经济伙伴关系协定)已经展示了一个更加美好的未来模式，鉴于成员国已经代表的规模和财富，更不用说未来的潜力了。

Thol Kappian Chidambaram
Yes, ASEAN will become the hub. In future there will be a great symbiotic relationship between ASEAN and China

【回复】是的，东盟将成为中心，未来东盟和中国将会有一个很好的共生关系。

Varun K
We need to promote VERTICAL INTEGRATION of manufacuring.

【回复】我们需要促进制造业的垂直一体化。
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Zhou Yuecheng Ai Engineer,Smart Gas Station Solution (2016-present)
No.
First, China cannot.Second, India cannot.
In the past decades, China has received a large number of manufacturing transfers. Now China has a much higher level of wagesthan the neighboring developing countries, but manufacturing is still growing rapidly.This is because China has a strong demand for manufacturing.One is that China is still in the process of rapid urbanization. In 2020, China's urbanization rate will be 45%, and that in Europe and America will be 70%.In other words, about 350 million people will move to the city in the future.In order to provide these people with adequate housing, health care, education, jobs and other services, sufficient manufacturing capacity and manufacturing jobs are needed.

【回答】AI工程师，智能加油站解决方案(2016年-至今)
不能。
首先，中国不能，其次，印度不能。
在过去的几十年里，中国接受了大量的制造业转移。现在，中国的工资水平比邻近的发展中国家高得多，但制造业仍在快速增长。这是因为中国对制造业有着强大的需求。一是中国仍处于快速城市化进程之中。到2020年，中国的城市化率将达到45% ，欧美的城市化率将达到70% 。换句话说，未来将有3.5亿人口迁入城市，为了给这些人提供足够的住房、医疗保健、教育、就业和其他服务，需要足够的制造能力和制造业工作。

On the other hand, manufacturing industry is seriously related to national security. Because of the Sino US trade war, China needs to keep the manufacturing industry and technology at a safe level.
Now the world is experiencing another economic crisis. The sluggish global demand has led to overcapacity and some de capacity behaviors of manufacturing industry in many countries.According to the Neo liberal economic theory, when there is overcapacity, we should follow the economic cycle to reduce the capacity.China's approach, however, is to go long against the cycle.China has launched construction plans on a large scale, one after another, which are even considered fake news.This has resulted in an expected number of orders in China's manufacturing industry for decades to ensure robust growth.In the next 10 years, China will double the length of railways, expressways and high-speed railways, and prepare to build a sub rail logistics system, build roads and railways across the Taiwan Strait, and build an aircraft to reach Paris within one hour,etc.In this case, the manufacturing industry will not and cannot leave China.Because there is the largest market, the strongest demand, the lowest operating cost and the highest profit, the Chinese market will replace the foreign market.They cannot leave China.

另一方面，制造业也严重关系到国家安全。由于中美贸易战，中国需要保持制造业和技术的安全水平。
现在，世界正在经历另一场经济危机(新冠疫情)。全球需求疲软导致许多国家的制造业产能过剩和部分产能下降。根据新自由主义经济理论，当存在产能过剩时，我们应该遵循经济周期来降低产能。然而，中国的做法是长期逆势而行。中国已经启动了大规模的建设计划，一个接一个，甚至还被认为是假新闻。未来10年，中国将把铁路、高速公路和高速铁路的长度增加一倍，并准备建设次级铁路物流系统，在台湾海峡两岸修建公路和铁路，以及建造能在一小时内抵达巴黎的飞机等。因为中国市场最大，需求最强，运营成本最低，利润最高，中国市场将取代国外市场。他们无法离开中国。

On the other hand,Manufacturing cannot go to India.Now there are many companies investing in India. What is the biggest attraction of developing manufacturing industry in India? Indian market.Because of India's tariff policy, many companies set up factories in India in order to enter the Indian market. However, the parts, design and R & D of the products are still from abroad.What are the problems facing India's manufacturing industry?
1.land
Developing on an open space is the simplest, but if the land is owned, the problem becomes more complicated.In India, land is a major issue if we want to develop infrastructure and build factories.
High speed rail projects in India.Bidding in 2014, starting in 2017, with a total length of 500 km,Length built:0km!!!Because As of July 2020, 60% of required land has been acquired and the rest is "almost on the verge of completion".What is the most important thing to develop manufacturing industry?You have to deliver the raw materials to the factory first, then you are in production, and then you have to deliver the goods from the factory to the consumers.We should also see some recent developments in India, such as a large number of automobile enterprises and mobile phone enterprises building factories in India,Like Suzuki, Samsung and XiaoMi.

另一方面，制造业无法转移到印度。现在有许多公司在印度投资。印度发展制造业最大的吸引力是什么？印度市场。由于印度的关税政策，许多公司在印度设立工厂，以进入印度市场。然而，该产品的零部件、设计和研发均来自国外。印度制造业面临的问题是什么？
1. 土地
在空地上开发是最简单的，但是如果土地是自有的，问题就变得更加复杂。在印度，如果我们想要发展基础设施和建设工厂，土地是一个主要问题。
印度的高速铁路项目。2014年招标，从2017年开始，预计总长度为500公里，而建成总长度：0公里! ! ！因为截至2020年7月，已经获得了60%的所需土地，而其余的土地“几乎要完成”。发展制造业最重要的是什么。首先要把原材料送到工厂，然后才是生产，然后才是把货物从工厂送到消费者手中。我们还应该看到印度最近的一些发展，比如大量汽车企业和手机企业在印度建厂，比如铃木、三星和小米。

But the manufacturing data is worrying. As can be seen from the data, the growth rate of India's manufacturing industry is very unstable.It's the same with the construction of electricity. India's electricity is not interconnected, and the power system is very unstable. Do you know how much money will be lost if the factory loses power for one hour?For example, the blast furnace in Tangshan, China, needs more than three million US dollars to start once, so it is usually not closed all year round.India's poor power system is a manufacturing nightmare

但制造业数据令人担忧。从数据中可以看出，印度制造业的增长速度非常不稳定，电力建设也是如此。印度的电力没有互联，电力系统非常不稳定。你知道如果工厂停电一小时会损失多少钱吗？例如，中国唐山的高炉一次启动需要花费三百多万美元，所以它通常全年都不会关闭。印度落后的电力系统是制造业的噩梦。

2.policy
The policies of the Indian government are not stable, coherent and effective.If we arbitrarily deny the previous policy and set up a new one, especially for foreign investors, it will have a serious negative impact on the business environment.Such as loan interest rates, finance, import and export tariffs, and labor laws.If a foreign investor invests in a project, India suddenly changes its policy two or three years later, resulting in the failure of all the investors' advance investment. What would investors think?It seems that India has taken advantage, but what will investors and other investors who wait and see these business actions do?This is not a hypothesis, but something that happened many times last year and this year

2. 政策
印度政府的政策不稳定、不连贯、不有效，如果我们任意否定以前的政策，建立新的政策，特别是对外国投资者，将对商业环境产生严重的负面影响。例如贷款利率、金融、进出口关税和劳动法。如果一个外国投资者投资一个项目，两三年后印度突然改变政策，导致所有投资者的预先投资失败。投资者会怎么想呢？看起来印度似乎占了便宜，但是等待和观望这些商业行为的投资者会怎么做呢？这不是假设，而是去年和今年发生了很多次的事情。

3.law
The legal environment in India is very bad. There are various restrictions on business, and the imperfection of legal system increases the additional cost of operators.In addition, Indian law still inherited the legal system of the British Empire.India has a set of strict laws to protect workers, but it is too strict. Because this set of laws is based on the standards of western developed countries, India's small and medium-sized enterprises can not afford the costs it brings.Every state in India has its own laws, regulations and policies, which sometimes confront national laws. It also increases the legal cost of the law
As a practitioner of industrial Internet related industries, no one around me would think of moving the factory to India.We think more about upgrading our factories with new technologies and moving them to places like Southwest and Northwest China. The risk of moving to India is too high.

3. 法律
印度的法律环境非常糟糕。印度法律对商业的限制是多方面的，法律制度的不完善增加了经营者的成本。印度有一套严格的法律来保护工人，但是太严格了。由于这套法律是以西方发达国家的标准为基础的，印度的中小企业无法承担其带来的成本。印度的每个州都有自己的法律、法规和政策，这些法律、法规和政策有时会与国家法律相冲突。这也增加了法律成本。
作为工业互联网相关产业的从业者，我周围没有人会想到把工厂搬到印度。我们更多地考虑用新技术升级我们的工厂，然后把它们搬到中国西南和中国西北等地。搬到印度的风险太高了。

Buerni
No country will help India to become a global manufacturing hub.
Don’t expect that transfer some commodity/electronics assembly can make a country to be a “manufacturing hub”.
In human history, a big country help another big country to industrialize itself only happened twice:
* US helped Russia(USSR) in early 20th century, industry was not hard that needs generations of effort back then. US turned Russia from an agriculture country to a country that made tanks/airplanes.
* USSR helped China in 1950s, though it stopped early when their relationship goes bad, Chinese got some basics and was able to keep going on at least. USSR can help defend East Europe from NATO, but they think a China with poor industrialization won’t be able to sustain capitalism’s pressure from east, and they can’t help much on this, so they choose to help but immediately regretted.
There is no such environment anymore.

【回答】
没有哪个国家会帮助印度成为全球制造业中心。
不要期望转让一些商品/电子产品组装可以使一个国家成为“制造中心”。
在人类历史上，一个大国帮助另一个大国实现工业化只发生过两次：
* 美国在二十世纪初帮助俄罗斯(苏联)，当时工业并不困难，需要几代人的努力。美国把俄罗斯从一个农业国变成了一个制造坦克/飞机的国家。
* 苏联在20世纪50年代帮助了中国，尽管在两国关系恶化的早期就停止了，但中国人获得了一些基本的东西，至少能够继续前进。苏联可以帮助保护东欧免受北约的伤害，但是他们认为一个工业化程度低的中国无法承受来自东方的资本主义的压力，而且他们也无法出手保护，所以他们选择帮助其实现工业化，但是苏联马上就后悔了。
现在已经没有这样的环境了。

China: Are you expecting Indians to fight against us at border with weapons we made (we helped them to make those weapons)?
US/EU: a good India is a poor and aggressive India, we earn tons of money from them, snatch talent from them, make them do low jobs so our people can enjoy luxury life. The best thing is it also can throw sands in Chinese shoes and we never worry about backfires.
Russia: My manufacturing ability and high tech is deteriorating…Are you expecting me to industrialize India so they can mess up my dropping share in global weapon market?

中国：你是希望印度人在边境用我们制造的武器(我们帮助他们制造的那些武器)与我们作战吗？
美国/欧盟：一个好的印度是一个贫穷而富有侵略性的印度，我们从他们那里赚了很多钱，从他们那里抢走人才，让他们做低级的工作，这样我们的人民就可以享受奢侈的生活。最好的事情是，它还可以把沙子扔进中国的鞋子里(硌脚)，我们从不担心适得其反。
俄罗斯：我的制造能力和高科技正在恶化... 难道你是希望我们帮印度实现工业化，好让他们在我们下降中的全球武器市场份额再踩一脚油门吗？

David Liu master Economics & istory(2000)
India has not made preparations for industry~shift yet,frankly speaking.even if labour~intensive low~end manufacturing were to move out of China,southeast Asia like Vietnam would be more attractive destination than India.
here are necessary preparations for industrialization.
1.land reform.the whole east Asia(Japan/two koreas/mainland China/Taiwan) and Vietnam finished land reform in early 1950s/1970s. that crushed land~lord class and assured most peasants own their land.
a. land reform can decrease the land~collecting cost for industrialization.that is why east asia/vietnam can upgrade their infrastructure at a much lower cost than other developing countries including India.
b. land reform provide ultimate insurance for peasants and keep the society more stable.
land reform usually assures peasants their own land,which provides peasants necessary shelter/food during jobless time.

【回答】经济与历史硕士(2000年)
坦率地说，印度还没有为工业转移做好准备。即使劳动密集型的低端制造业迁出中国，像越南这样的东南亚国家也会比印度更有吸引力。
以下是工业化的必要准备。
1. 整个东亚(日本/南北朝鲜/中国大陆/台湾)和越南在1950/1970年代初完成了土地改革。粉碎了地主阶级，保证了大多数农民拥有自己的土地。
a. 土地改革可以降低工业化的征地成本。这就是为什么东亚/越南可以用比包括印度在内的其他发展中国家低得多的成本升级他们的基础设施。
b. 土地改革为农民提供了最终的保障，让社会更加稳定。
土地改革通常会保证农民拥有自己的土地，在失业期间为农民提供必要的住房/食物。

2.education. due to the poor education,many Indians are not qualifed labour for industrialization.
compared with east Asia/vietnam,the public education in India is toooo terrible.
metriced by India criteria, the illiteracy rate in India is about 30~40%.but metriced by Chinese criteria(which is much more strict),the illiteracy rate would be more than 50%.
3.corruption/red~tapeism makes India not friendly for investment.

2. 教育。由于教育水平低下，许多印度人不具备从事工业化劳动的资格。
与东亚/越南相比，印度的公共教育非常糟糕。
根据印度的标准，印度的文盲率约为30%到40%。但按照中国的标准(更加严格)来衡量，印度的文盲率将超过50%。
3. 贪污腐败使得印度不利于投资。
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Rishabh Jain
Labour reforms are in line, will be a reality anytime soon.Agriculture reforms, done last year (protests against which are still going on)
Land reforms, I am hopeful, will be a reality very soon too.
Corruption is decreasing at a massive pace.
Things come slow to India, but when they do, they tend to stay. I am quite optimistic that India will make it.

【回复】劳工改革正在进行中，将很快成为现实。农业改革去年完成(抗议活动仍在继续)
我希望土地改革很快也会成为现实。
腐败正在大幅度减少。
在印度，事情的进展很缓慢，但是一旦发生，他们往往会持续下去。我相当乐观地认为印度能够成功。

David Liu
lol…you underestimate the resistance from the establishment ,who always do their best to protect their vested interest.
for example
large~land ownership raise the land~collecting cost much and is a sin to industrialization.
however,there are large landlords/landowners widely in developing countries like India/Pakistan/the Philippines/Latin America.

【作者回复】哈哈... 你低估建制派的抵抗力量了，他们总是尽最大努力保护自己的既得利益。
例如，
大片土地所有权大大增加了土地征收成本，对工业化来说是一大罪过。
然而，在印度/巴基斯坦/菲律宾/拉丁美洲等发展中国家，大地主比比皆是。

Rishabh Jain
* Peaceful protests are a part of democracy. I grew up seeing protests.
* In India, land is private property unlike China
* We’ve regularly seen uprise of leaders who implement harsh laws/bills disregarding their “vote banks”. I agree that in China such leaders are the rule, and in India, they are an exception. But, such leaders are getting elected more and more often in India. Again, I am very optimistic about India’s future. We won’t be the next China, but we’ll definitely be at a respectable, good place.

【回复】* 和平抗议是民主的一部分，我从小就看着抗议活动长大。
* 与中国不同，印度的土地属于私有财产。
* 我们经常看到一些领导人无视他们的“投票库”，执行严厉的法律/法案。我同意这在中国是常态，而在印度，他们是个例外。但是，这样的领导人在印度当选的频率越来越高。同样，我对印度的未来非常乐观。我们不会成为下一个中国，但我们肯定会成为一个体面的好地方。

Jaspreet Singh
Caste is there which is legalzed socially.
If india needs to develop, indians have to destroy the caste oppressors

【回复】种姓制度是社会上合法化的制度。
如果印度需要发展，印度人就必须摧毁种姓压迫者。
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Ray Comeau Decades working in analyzing risk and plotting strategy
Thanks for request.
The best way I can frame a response is, china can help to a point, but it cannot do for India what India needs to do for itself.
There are Chinese companies who have set-up manufacturing in China. Xiaomi and BYD are two I know of as top of mind.
If India wants help from China it needs take the appropriate steps to go down that road. However, I am not convinced India wants to. Here is an example of what I mean - There have been a number of trade agreements proposed that include both parties in recent years and every time India walks away.
Also in recent years, labour intensive manufacturers in China, have been expanding into neighbouring countries like Indonesia, Vietnam, Cambodia, Bangladesh. Yet India is the elephant in south Asia, which begs me to wonder why not more in India. I am sure it’s complicated.

【回答】几十年来致力于风险分析和策划策略
谢邀。
我能做出的最好回答是，中国可以在一定程度上帮助印度，但它不能为印度做印度自己需要做的事情。
有些中国公司已经在中国建立了制造基地。小米和比亚迪是我心目中的两个最顶尖的公司。
如果印度希望得到中国的帮助，它需要采取适当的措施来走上这条道路。然而，我并不认为印度愿意这么做。这里有一个例子来说明我的意思——近年来已经提出了许多包括双方在内的贸易协定，但每次印度都退出。
同样在最近几年，中国的劳动密集型制造商，一直在向邻国扩展，如印度尼西亚，越南，柬埔寨，孟加拉国等。然而，印度是南亚的大象，这让我不禁要问，为什么印度没有更多呢。我知道这很复杂。

Maulana Oraf Proprietor at Hind National Exports (1992-present)
No they can't cos for Jupiter's weather to be simulated on earth, earth needs to be made into a Jupiter. In the same spirit, for Chinese methodology to work, ur society needs to be at least remotely styled like China's..
First thing China will ask is for u to do industrial zoning nationwide. Like focus all leather industries in Vellore dist in TN, focus all automobile industries in Chennai, focus all metal working industries in Jaipur etc. Does our constitution give govt the power to simply force all producers to comply with this directive? Nope ! And India's industrial infrastructure was set up in 1900s by British. China's was setup from scratch in 1950+ by CCP.
Chinese would be able to deploy their methods in nations such as Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam.

【回答】Hind国家出口公司 经营者(1992年-至今)
不，他们不能，因为就像要在地球上模拟木星的天气，地球需要变成木星。本着同样的精神，为了让中国的方法发挥作用，我们的社会至少需要有一点中国式的风格...
中国要求的第一件事就是在全国范围内进行工业区划分。比如在泰米尔纳德邦的韦洛尔区专注所有皮革行业，在钦奈专注所有汽车行业，在斋浦尔专注所有金属加工行业等。我们的宪法是否赋予了政府勒令所有生产者遵守这一指令的权力？没有！印度的工业基础设施是在20世纪由英国人建立的。而中国是在1950年由党从无到有建立起来的。
中国人将能够在柬埔寨、老挝、越南等国有效利用他们的方法。
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Mukesh Reddy
Haha what an example 😅 perfect and we'll explained 👏👏 we can't expect diamonds raining from the sky without doing proper groundwork like a good legal system, no corruption, good government services like railways on time, good roads without potholes, electricity without power cuts🤭

【回复】哈哈，多么完美的例子啊，我们会解释说我们不能指望从天而降的钻石，除非我们做了适当的基础工作，比如良好的法律制度，没有腐败，良好的政府服务，比如准时的铁路，没有坑洼的公路，不会断电的供电。

Bruno Uzoka
What options are left for India to pursue. It has 1.4 bn mouths to feed after all? Times a wastin’. With this rogue pandemic that’s still hanging around, even more time’s going to be needed for economies to heal. Yet Modi seems to embark on a vision of concentrating on the domestic mkt. Depressed economy as expected. All the funds wasted on armaments instead of infrastructure surely doesn’t help. Joining RCEP still not an option. What to do wiser counsel?

【回复】印度还有什么选择呢，毕竟它还有14亿张嘴要养活？浪费时间。随着这场疫情的蔓延，经济需要更多的时间来恢复。然而，莫迪似乎开始着眼于国内事务。经济如预期低迷。所有浪费在军备而不是基础设施上的资金肯定不会有什么帮助。加入RCEP仍然不是一个选择。更明智的建议是什么？

Maulana Oraf
I think we will have to SoS to CAREC again just as we did in 1525. I can only wish CAREC states become stronger and take a more proactive interest in South Asia. I lost faith in South Asia leadership to lead a nation. We badly need CAREC leadership.

【作者回复】我认为我们将不得不再次向CAREC(中亚区域经济合作)求救，就像我们在1525年所做的那样。我只能希望CAREC成员国们更加强大，对南亚更加积极主动。我对南亚领导人领导一个国家失去了信心。我们迫切需要CAREC的领导。

Nithin Sai
We should put out ego aside and should join the Belt and Road initiative.

【回复】我们应该把自我放在一边，加入一带一路倡议。

Maulana Oraf
Yea we should. Except, we have this document called “The Constitution” which stalls out effective participation with OBOR.
The first thing all OBOR compliant countries need are real estate laws that favor property developers vs tenants. It will take till 5000 AD before we worked out HALF the right of way clearances needed for obor project work.

【作者回复】是的，我们应该加入。但是我们有一份叫做“宪法”的文件，它阻碍了印度有效参与一带一路。
所有遵守一带一路的国家，首先需要的是有利于房地产开发商和房客的房地产法。我们要到公元5000年，才能计算出一带一路项目工作所需的一半通行权。

Safiu Ahmed
I think India needs to focus on Services - Software - because India has its strength in software and should focus on its strength.
I do not understand why India wants to do what China wants to do.
the biggest question is why is there no Operating system coming out of India
no Databases technology
and no software like adobe etc.
While India is happy to export their technical talent and develop software for USA - which is its actual strength.

【回复】我认为印度需要把重点放在服务业、软件业，因为印度在软件业有自己的优势，应该把重点放在自己的优势上。
我不明白为什么印度想做中国想做的事。
最大的问题是为什么印度没有推出操作系统。
没有数据库技术
没有像adobe等软件。
而印度乐于向美国输出技术人才和为美国开发软件，这正是印度的实力所在。

Soumyadipta Majumder
Sir, whom do you give credit for China’s economic miracle???

【回复】先生，你认为中国的经济奇迹归功于谁？？？
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Naresh Vasani lives in Delhi (2011-present)
India is already one of the world's top manufacturing centers. As a world factory and world office, India is famous for its manufacturing and service industries. All this is due to the great Mr. modi. Under his leadership, India has become a superpower. Even the United States has recognized India as a developed country. China is just a poor and backward developing country. In fact, as a friendly neighbor, India has been helping China develop its manufacturing industry to get rid of poverty. With the efforts of Mr. Modi, China's manufacturing industry has also achieved great development, becoming one of the world's manufacturing centers comparable to India. Because of this cooperation between the two countries, we have restored the friendly relations that were destroyed by the stupid Nehru government since 1962. China and India have friendly relations for thousands of years. We are brother countries. However, the stupid Nehru government, blinded by the careerists, initiated the war against China in 1962 on its own initiative for the sake of a little benefit, and finally failed in disgrace, destroying the friendly relations between the two countries.
So Mr. modi is a great statesman, one of the few great statesmen in human history.

【回答】住在德里(2011年-至今)
印度已经是世界上最大的制造业中心之一。作为世界工厂和世界办事处，印度以其制造业和服务业而闻名。这一切都要归功于伟大的莫迪先生。在他的领导下，印度已成为一个超级大国。甚至美国也承认印度是一个发达国家。中国只是一个贫穷落后的发展中国家。事实上，作为一个友好邻邦，印度一直在帮助中国发展制造业，以摆脱贫困。在莫迪先生的努力下，中国的制造业也取得了巨大的发展，成为世界上可与印度媲美的制造业中心之一。由于两国之间的这种合作，我们恢复了自1962年以来被愚蠢的尼赫鲁政府破坏的友好关系。中国和印度有着几千年的友好关系。我们是兄弟国家。然而，愚蠢的尼赫鲁政府在野心家的蒙蔽下，于1962年为了一点点的利益主动发动了对华战争，最终以失败告终，破坏了两国之间的友好关系。
所以莫迪先生是一位伟大的政治家，是人类历史上为数不多的伟大政治家之一。
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Bruno Uzoka
Huh, you were saying? A good propagandist no doubt.

【回复】哈？你刚才说什么？毫无疑问，你是一个优秀的宣传者。
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Nathan James B.Sc. from Ryerson University (1985)
In principle, yes. In practice, no.
First, China and India are competitors. Why would competitors help each other?
Second, India would never accept help from China. It is clear from Indian media that India despises China. Pride would stand in the way.
Third, India faces too many challenges. It has a highly dysfunctional government. India would need to reform its political system. I don’t see any possibility of that.
Indian culture poses too many human rights issues, for example, how women are treated (honour killings). There is religious strife between Hindus and Muslims and whatever else.
India and Pakistan have a very dangerous relationship. War is a very genuine concern.
So we have political instability, social instability, and diplomatic instability. This is not a good foundation for rapid economic growth.

【回答】怀雅逊大学的理学士(1985)
原则上能，但实际上不能。
首先，中国和印度是竞争对手。为什么竞争对手会互相帮助？
其次，印度永远不会接受中国的帮助。从印度媒体上可以清楚地看到，印度鄙视中国。而骄傲会成为绊脚石。
第三，印度面临太多挑战。它有一个高度机能失调的政府。印度需要改革其政治体制。我看不出有这种可能性。
印度文化提出了太多的人权问题，例如，如何对待妇女(名誉杀人)。印度教徒和穆斯林教徒之间存在宗教冲突，还有其他。
印度和巴基斯坦的关系非常危险，战争是一个非常真实的问题。
所以，我们政治不稳定，社会不稳定，外交不稳定，这不是经济快速增长的良好基础。

Sylvain Saurel
China and India are rival countries that do not like each other.
China has no interest in helping India in this regard.
In terms of business, one can think that anything is possible of course. But the dispute between the two countries is too important for this to happen in my opinion.
Moreover, in the future, India will become the 3rd world power.
It will quickly be seen by China as a competitor rather than a potential ally in its development to reach the rank of first world power ahead of the United States.

【回答】
中国和印度是互不喜欢的对立国家。
在这方面，中国没有兴趣帮助印度。
就商业而言，人们当然可以认为一切皆有可能。但我认为，两国之间的争端太重要了，不可能发生这种情况。
此外，在未来，印度将成为世界第三强国。
在中国超越美国成为世界第一强国的发展过程中，中国将很快把印度视为竞争对手，而不是潜在的盟友。

Annushi Gel lives in India
China considers India its biggest competition and threat. U.S. is going down. India is the only one which is gradually gaining in on the progress made by China. It is estimated in the next few years India will be even above china.
In such a situation how can china help india.
Secondly, china never helps any nation. It trades, other nations.

【回答】住在印度
中国认为印度是其最大的竞争对手和威胁。美国正在衰落。印度是唯一一个逐渐赶上中国进步的国家。据估计，在未来几年内，印度甚至将超过中国。
在这种情况下，中国怎么能帮助印度。
其次，中国从来不帮助任何国家。而是与其他国家贸易。
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Bruno Uzoka
Annushi, that estimate of a few years is patently false and obviously self-serving. T’is the sort of sloganeering a politician would fervidly feed the dispossessed masses/voters with. Consider the serious brain drain that India loses every year, for one. The infrastructure is frankly still not there.Pray, take a look at the other answer. I believe t’is from an ex-chief Mgr of India’s Central bank. It is priceless.

【回复】Annushi，那个“几年就超过中国”的估计显然是错误和自私的。这是一种政治家狂热地向被剥削的群众/选民灌输的口号。首先，想想印度每年都在严重流失的人才。坦率地说，基础设施仍然不存在。请看看另一个回答。我相信这是出自印度中央银行的一位前总经理的回答(译注：第一个回答的)。这是无价之宝。
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Jagdish Dubey studied at Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad
Why should it? Its a competitive World. A country like India soon going to overtake China as the most populous country, should be able and is actually trying hard to stand on its own. We have the business acumen and technical manpower. So hope for the best. India may soon become the top industrial power on its own.

【回答】毕业于印度艾哈迈达巴德管理学院
为什么要这么做？这是一个充满竞争的世界。一个像印度这样的国家很快就会超过中国成为人口最多的国家，它应该能够并且正在努力独立自主。我们拥有敏锐的商业头脑和技术人力。所以往好的方面想吧。印度可能很快就会凭借自己的实力成为最大的工业强国。