[2021-01-31]一些解密的白宫文件，揭示了美国对和中国的潜在较量已经力不从心

 

Following the departure of White House Deputy National Security Advisor Matthew Pottinger and with the Trump administration coming to an end, a number of documents have been declassified setting out its ‘Indo-Pacific’ strategy or, more specifically, its gameplan to attempt to contain China over its four years in office.The documents are hardly comprehensive, yet reveal ambitions to contain Beijing in the political, diplomatic, economic and military spheres, including a blueprint of what the US would do in a potential war scenario.

随着白宫副国家安全顾问博明离任和当前政府即将结束，一些文件被解密，列出了其“印度-太平洋”战略，这些文件并不全面，但揭示了在各个方面遏制中国的野心，包括在潜在的战争情景下将采取什么行动的蓝图。
如果说这份文件有什么区别的话，那就是它解释了当前政府在其任期内对该地区的全面战略失败。而且这份文件还显示出了美国对是否有能力在“第一岛链”地区战胜中国的怀疑，而不是信心。
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Bill Spence
The concept of “the first island chain” was used by China to define its defensive policy. It has nothing to do with China’s offensive policy which is based on cruise and ballistic missiles that can strike anywhere. That makes the U.S. Navy extremely vulnerable considering the surveillance options that China has available - UP: 33 DN: 4

“第一岛链”的概念被中国用来确定其防御政策。这与中国的进攻政策无关，中国的进攻政策是建立在巡航导弹和弹道导弹可以打击任何地方的基础上。考虑到中国现有的监测手段，这使得美国海军极为脆弱。

R_Pulsation
Thank you, Admiral. - UP: 0 DN: 2

谢谢你，舰队司令。

Bill Spence
You should be thanking the artillery specialists because they are the ones that are operative. - UP: 1 DN: 2

你应该感谢火炮专家，因为他们才是真正关键的人。

PantaOzPRC
And when in history China went to be offensive in another continent ? China is using their Army and Navy for defence... in 5000 years of history! USA is completely different story. China never had aspirations to become the bully of the world, like USA is. - UP: 6 DN: 0

历史上中国什么时候对另一个大陆发动攻击了？中国正在使用他们的陆军和海军防御... 在5000年的历史中！美国的情况则完全不同。中国从来没有像美国那样渴望成为世界的霸主。

SonnenTanz
Well gee, I remember something about the Mongolian invasion. Ring a bell? - UP: 0 DN: 1

哎呀，我记得一些关于蒙古人入侵的事情。想起来了吗？

mabonwales
Mongolians are not Chinese. The Chinese were overrun by the Mongolians! - UP: 3 DN: 1

蒙古人不是中国人，中国被蒙古人占领了！

SonnenTanz
Sure, and Sicilians are not Italians, nor are Venicians. LOL. (Just to be clear: the Sicilians fought wars with the Italians!)
Average person can't tell a Han from a Mongol. But do read about their histories, which are like that of Spain and Portugal, except much much closer and without the Moors.
And spend a bit of it on the Yuan and Northern Yuan Dynasties while at it. Note that combination occurred before the Mongolians pushed into Europe.
Then come back.
Also, are the Zhuang Chinese? Or only the Han. Asking for a friend. (Note that China officially has 6 million Mongols, which is about twice the number of Mongols in Mongolia. Also wondering, are those Mongols Chinese, or not?) - UP: 1 DN: 1

当然，西西里人不是意大利人，威尼斯人也不是。哈哈。(先说清楚：西西里人和意大利人打过仗！)
一般人分不清汉人和蒙古人。但是我们要读一读他们的历史，就像西班牙和葡萄牙的历史一样，只不过更接近，而且没有摩尔人。
花一点时间研究元朝和北元时期。请注意，这种结合体发生在蒙古人进入欧洲之前。
然后再回来。
还有，壮族人是中国人吗？或者只有汉族人。找个朋友问问。(注意，中国官方有600万的蒙古人，是蒙古人数的两倍。也想知道，那些蒙古人是不是中国人？)

mabonwales
In those days, the Chinese had no doubt that they were differet from the Mongolians. That is why the Great Wall of China was built, to keep the invaders out. When eventually the Mongols overran China; with time the Chinese had a civilising influence on the Mongols - UP: 3 DN: 1

在那段时期，中国人毫不怀疑他们与蒙古人是不同的。这就是为什么要修建中国长城，把侵略者挡在外面。最终蒙古人占领了中国；随着时间的推移，蒙古人被中国人的文明影响了。

SonnenTanz
The Great Wall was built not against Mongolians in particular but to delineate the dynasties - you see, like everyone else at that time, there were a lot of intraethnic conflicts. Lots of wars fought between groups even you would consider to be Chinese on both sides.
The fact is the Han joined with the Mongolians, formed the Yuan Dynasty, and went on to conquer most of the land they conquered, together. Your myths about "civilized Chinese" and "savage Mongols" notwithstanding. - UP: 0 DN: 3

长城并不是特别针对蒙古人建造的，而是为了勾勒各个王朝的轮廓，你看，就像当时的其他种族一样，也存在着许多种族内部冲突。很多战争都发生在两个群体之间，即使你认为这两个群体都是中国人。
事实上，汉人与蒙古人联手，建立了元朝，并一起征服了他们征服的大部分土地。尽管你有关于“文明的中国人”和“野蛮的蒙古人”的神话。

Juan_More
If the stories about the Grand Fleet are true that was likely the only time that China has visited other continents and that was in the 1300's. Unlike the US they were exploring and trading with others. Not trying to occupy or conquer them. - UP: 4 DN: 0

如果关于(郑和)大舰队的故事是真的，那可能是中国唯一一次访问其他大陆，那是在1300年代。与美国不同，他们正在与其它国家进行探索和贸易。不试图占领或征服它们。

Arian1
As they should be - vulnerable. They have no justification for encircling China. What the usa is doing is a declaration of war. The only reason why there is no war yet - for now - is that China is a powerful giant and could squash the usa like a bug.
As it should. - UP: 13 DN: 2

因为他们(美国)理应如此——脆弱不堪。他们没有理由包围中国。美国正在做的是宣战。现在还没有战争的唯一原因是，中国是一个强大的巨人，可以像碾死一只虫子一样碾死美国。
这是理所当然的。

lubba
US always assumes that itself would not get hit back if it attacks other countries. This is true for some countries that do not have the capability to strike back, but China is definitely NOT those countries and China can strike US. - UP: 19 DN: 1

美国总是认为，如果它攻击其它国家，它自己不会受到反击。这对于一些没有能力反击的国家来说是真的，但是中国绝对不是那样的国家，而且中国可以打击美国。

Juan_More
It is the old domino theory with a fresh coat of paint. Didn't make sense back in the day, doesn't make sense today.
To counter the PLA Navy the US would have to go nuclear almost from the start, conventional weapons would be mostly ineffective. Which in turn would paint mushroom clouds on many islands in the pacific. - UP: 9 DN: 1

这是多米诺骨牌理论的老酒装新瓶。在过去没有意义，今天也没有意义。
为了对抗中国海军，美国将不得不几乎从一开始就使用核武器，常规武器基本上是无效的。这反过来又会在太平洋的许多岛屿上画上蘑菇云。

Bill Spence
Nuclear weapons will not help the United States even the virus is too much. - UP: 7 DN: 2

核武器帮不了美国，就连病毒也太多了。

Bill Spence
The US must devise a blockade of China that allows Chinese goods to be imported to the United States. That is not a very good blockade is it? The US has no way of doing without Chinese products and that is not likely to change in the near future. - UP: 25 DN: 3

美国必须设计一种对中国的封锁，允许中国商品进口到美国。但这不是很好的封锁，是吧？没有中国产品，美国无路可走，这种情况在不久的将来也不太可能改变。

Juan_More
All that high tech stuff needs the rare earth materials that the PRC mines and refines. The US needs those materials. - UP: 6 DN: 1

所有这些高科技材料都需要中国开采和提炼的稀土材料。美国需要这些材料。

SonnenTanz
Rare earth materials are not that rare, there are massive reserves in Brazil. The bigger issue is those mines have not been developed, so there would be a production lag. Question then is if there is sufficient stockpile (reserves) to last until deployment. - UP: 1 DN: 0

稀土材料并不是那么稀有，巴西拥有巨大的储量。更大的问题是，这些矿山尚未开发，因此生产将出现滞后。那么接下来的问题是，是否有足够的储备可以维持到部署。

windy1675
i expect US government has been smart enough to stash a contingent quantity of rare earth metal for some time. Either that or they hope for a quick win - UP: 1 DN: 2

我认为，美国政府足够聪明，已经在一段时间内储存了一定数量的稀土金属。要么这样，要么他们希望快速获胜。

Juan_More
The PRC has been limiting the amount of refined rare earths sold. The US used to have the capacity to mine and refine them but gave that up. It will take some time before they have the capability to do that once again. - UP: 2 DN: 0

中国一直在限制精炼稀土的销售量。美国过去有能力开采和提炼这些矿石，但后来放弃了。他们需要一些时间才有能力再次做到这一点。

Trekker
When I walk around ANY store now in Washington State, for example, China totally dominates the supply chain for many of the goods. And compared to 20 years ago, a lot of the goods cost much less than half what they used to cost.
The just is no way the consumer is ever going to give it up the advantage it gets from buying Chinese goods, as it raises everyone's standard of living so much (reducing the cost of goods relative to income).
The USD has to totally move on and worry about developing its own economy and integrating with China, too. Start taking Chinese lessons, buddy. - UP: 16 DN: 2

例如，当我在华盛顿州的任何一家商店转悠时，中国完全主导着许多商品的供应链。与20年前相比，许多商品的价格远低于过去价格的一半。
消费者绝不会放弃购买中国商品所获得的好处，因为这大大提高了每个人的生活水平(降低了商品相对于收入的价格)。
美元必须完全走开，同时也要担心发展自己的经济以及与中国的融合。开始学中文吧，各位。

Juan_More
Any conflict with the PRC started by the US would have to go nuclear almost right away. The supply lines from the US are too long and the US hasn't gone up against a similarly equipped adversary since WW2. They have pushed around small countries that can not defend themselves or sabre rattled to countries that can defend themselves. So much so that they think that they could win.
The US battle plan since the start of Cold War 1.0 is to use allies as cannon fodder to reduce any potential enemy's troops/resources. Then the US can waltz in after the heavy lifting is done and declare victory. - UP: 10 DN: 1

任何由美国挑起的与中国的冲突几乎马上就会变成核冲突。来自美国的补给线太长，自二战以来，美国还没有和类似装备的对手较量过。他们逼迫那些无法自卫的小国，或者对那些能够自卫的国家炫耀武力。做这样的事情太多了，以至于他们认为他们会赢。
自冷战1.0开始以来，美国的作战计划就是利用盟友作为炮灰，减少任何潜在敌人的军队/资源。然后美国就可以大摇大摆地进来，宣布胜利。

E_Kaos
Similar to most other conflicts the US engage in and enjoy so well. - UP: 4 DN: 1

和大多数其他冲突一样，美国参与然后尽情享受。

freehuman
Modi's India, for example - UP: 0 DN: 0

例如，莫迪的印度

Bill Spence
Nuclear war on the oceans will not work for the US
Because Its ships will all be destroyed. Then what?
It is a dead end. The US is all bluff. There will not be a war with China. Just a war of words. - UP: 3 DN: 1

海洋上的核战争对美国来说是行不通的。
因为它的舰船都会被摧毁，然后呢？
这是一条死胡同。美国完全是在虚张声势。不会与中国发生战争的。只是一场口水战。

freehuman
More than ever, it seems that the history of humankind is rooted in conflict and a desire to dominate others. Sadly, this seems to be widely accepted as "normality" and no one seems to question it. Discussions center around strategies to achieve domination or to counter it; seldome about why humanity should tolerate this domination game or how to put an end to it. Is there a fundamental need for supremacy by one group? Or is it detrimental to mankind? - UP: 18 DN: 3

人类的历史似乎比以往任何时候都更加根植于冲突和支配他人的欲望。可悲的是，这似乎被广泛接受为“常态”，似乎没有人对此提出质疑。讨论的中心是实现统治或者对抗统治的策略；为什么人类应该容忍这种统治游戏，或者如何结束它。一个群体是否有称霸的根本需求？还是对人类有害?

Be_Fair
Until recent times, last decade or so, I might have agreed with you. However, for a moment take the US totally out of the equation and imagine for example the UN. I think what we could end up with, will not be so different to the desired outcome that you have described. Yes, of course, there will be the normal bickering and disagreements, etc, but nothing that can't be resolved amicably. This is because no one, except US, has been the top dog for so long that everyone else has learnt and got used to negotiations. Not only they know how to do that, but also more importantly, they are willing to do that. Everyone else in the world, can survive, even thrive, without having to be at the very top of the food chain, except the US.
Nearly all the current fights for dominance, in various spheres, exits because everyone has to play the game with the rules which the US has set, because the US is at the top of the food chain and it can set the rules. Even those old imperialistic mess that have been created as the result of the arbitrary division of various lands across the world, are amicably resovable, once you take the US out of the picture. - UP: 12 DN: 2

直到最近，过去十年左右，我可能会同意你的观点。然而，暂时把美国完全排除在外，想象一下联合国。我认为我们最终得到的结果，与你所描述的预期结果，不会有太大的不同。是的，当然，会有正常的争吵和分歧等，但没有什么是不能友好解决的。这是因为，除了美国之外，没有一个国家长期以来一直处于领先地位，以至于其它国家都已经学会并习惯了谈判。他们不仅知道如何去做，更重要的是，他们愿意去做。世界上的其他人，都可以生存，甚至繁荣，而不必处于食物链的最顶端，除了美国。
几乎所有当前在各个领域争夺主导地位的斗争都退出了，因为每个人都必须按照美国制定的规则玩游戏，因为美国处于食物链的顶端，它可以制定规则。即使是那些旧帝国主义在世界各地任意分割领土而造成的烂摊子，一旦你把美国排除在外，也是可以友好地解决的。

Be_Fair
I see your point…top dog in this sense is about setting the rules of the game. Yes, the others may have purposely sat back and let the US set the rules for some reason or another.
It's like, you are playing a game of football and out of nowhere comes a mad man entering the field and running naked after the ball, grabbing it, moving around the field, kicking it etc. Even if the other players run after him to get the ball back, they are no longer playing a game of football. Whilst this guy is still on the field not only they can't play football but they are playing to his rules. Not because his rules are any better, more relevant, or even because he is a better player or stronger than anyone else, but simply because of this one guy, the other 22 players have to play by his rules until he is off the field. Once he is of the field, then everyone can go back to playing football. It doesn't mean there won't ever be a foul or an offside in that game, but overall, the game will work, like it does many thousands of times across the globe each day. - UP: 6 DN: 0

我明白你的意思了... 从这个意义上来说，全球霸主就是制定游戏规则。是的，其他国家可能某种原因故意坐视不管，让美国制定规则。
就像你在踢足球，不知从哪里冒出来一个疯子，赤身裸体地追着球跑，抓着球，在球场上跑来跑去，踢着球等等。即使其他球员追在他后面把球抢回来，他们也不再是踢足球了。当这个家伙还在球场上的时候，他们不仅不能踢球，而且还在按照他的规则踢球。不是因为他的规则更好，更有意义，甚至不是因为他是一个更好的球员或者比任何其他人更强大，但仅仅因为这个家伙，其他22名球员必须按照他的规则玩，直到他离开球场。一旦他离开球场，那么每个人都可以回去踢足球了。这并不意味着在这场比赛中永远不会有犯规或越位，但总的来说，这场比赛能正常进行，就像它每天在全球进行数千次一样。

Arian1
Yes. Good comparison. The mad person is not necessarily the strongest on the field. Just the most aggressive. He will do his damage and then run out of gas. All the players need to do is to chase him out of the playground and, hopefully, into the hands of security. Not to engage in his aggression. - UP: 1 DN: 0

是的。很好的比较。疯子不一定是球场上最强的。只是最具侵略性的。他会造成伤害，然后耗尽汽油。所有的球员需要做的是把他赶出运动场，希望他能落到保安的手里。不要参与他的侵略行为。

freehuman
I don't disagree. But I'm also saying that, throughout history, humankind has engaged in continuous conflicts - UP: 0 DN: 0

我并不反对。但我也要说，纵观历史，人类一直处于持续的冲突之中

Iwanasay
The Article singles out the Trump administration, but policies are not made over night they take time to deliver and plans to target China have been developed years ago, Trump was just the latest delivery boy in the Whitehouse, it was under the Obama administration that the freedom of navigation challenges first started. - UP: 11 DN: 0

文章特别指出了特朗普政府，但是政策不是一夜之间制定出来的，需要时间来兑现，针对中国的计划是多年前制定的，特朗普只是白宫最新的送货者，正是在奥巴马政府时期，航行自由的挑战首次开始。

Bill Spence
Forget the pivot to Asia. Trump is a major threat to the world not just to China. - UP: 1 DN: 1

忘掉重返亚洲的战略吧。特朗普不仅是中国，也是世界的主要威胁。

ZidaneX
Yup it was started by Obama/Biden pivot to Asia and the plan might has been hatched much earlier. I believe the execution time was delayed due to some of the targeted countries needed leadership changed especially those that believed in good relationship with China. - UP: 5 DN: 0

是的，这项计划是由奥巴马/拜登的重返亚洲战略开始的，而且可能早就酝酿好了。我认为执行时间被推迟是由于一些目标国家需要更换领导人，特别是那些相信与中国保持良好关系的国家。

lolaus
"Pivot" to Asia? Obama is just as bad as Bush. He means "OCCUPATION" of Asia. Like in Palestine. But it ain't gonna work. This not just a "China containment"; It is a War of Civilization offensive by Washington/America. - UP: 4 DN: 0

“重返”亚洲？奥巴马和布什一样坏。他的意思是“占领”亚洲。就像在巴勒斯坦。但这是没用的。这不仅仅是“遏制中国”，而是华盛顿/美国发动的一场文明战争。

bobby
This actually proves that extremist was created around 90's to terrorise china if i recall reading from some where. - UP: 1 DN: 0

这实际上证明了极端分子是在90年代左右被创造出来恐吓中国的，如果我记得在某些地方读到过的话。

ZidaneX
Can you imagine the British waged the opium war to rescue the chinese from opium addiction perpetrated by the Manchu govt ? - UP: 1 DN: 0

你能想象英国人发动鸦片战争是为了把中国人从满洲政府的鸦片瘾中解救出来吗？

GottaBeMe
It’s been evident for some time that the US has been behind the rising tensions between India and China. And Modi has fallen into the trap. China would do well to address this important issue.
As far as the military strategy laid out, it may be a fake. I hope China doesn’t rely on it for any warfare planning. - UP: 17 DN: 4

一段时间以来，很明显，美国是印度和中国之间紧张局势升级的幕后黑手。莫迪已经落入了这个陷阱。中国最好解决这一重要问题。
就军事战略而言，这可能是假的。我希望中国不要依赖它进行任何战争计划。

Juan_More
Actually the US battle plan for the region is quite obvious. Any conflict will have the regional allies take the brunt of the battle along with some US regional cannon fodder. Once the opposition forces are reduced the US will come riding in like the US cavalry always did in the old westerns and mop up. The supply lines are too long for a sustained conflict supplied from the US so any conflict with the PRC in the region will go nuclear quickly. - UP: 9 DN: 1

其实，美国在该地区的作战计划是相当明显的。任何冲突都会让该地区的盟友首当其冲，同时还有一些美国在该地区的炮灰。一旦反对派势力被削减，美国就会骑着马过来，就像美国骑兵在旧西部总是做的那样，然后进行扫荡。对于来自美国的持续冲突来说，补给线太长了，所以，与中国在该地区的任何冲突都会很快演变成核冲突。

archer235
The countries in the region like Japan and Korea have real concerns about China, I believe Indonesia is another one, Trump wasn't making that up, they have been caught spying on our tech companies for years and they have become an economic powerhouse because we were sold out by our politicians. Trump tried to get Russia into our sphere but traitors in our country stopped that with the Russia hoax, Russia would've been a very powerful ally and would have given China pause before starting anything foolish. - UP: 0 DN: 1

该地区的国家，如日本和韩国，对中国怀有真正的担忧，我相信印度尼西亚是另一个国家，特朗普不是在编造，他们多年来一直在监视我们的科技公司，他们已经成为一个经济强国，因为我们被我们的政客出卖了。特朗普试图让俄罗斯进入我们的世界，但是我们国家的叛徒阻止了这一切，因为俄罗斯是一个非常强大的盟友，会让中国在开始做任何愚蠢的事情之前三思。

Juan_More
The PRC is only a threat to them economically because Japan is on the downswing because their debt to GDP Nominal is 223.8%. Korea sees the PRC as a threat to their economy whilst the PRC's debt to GDP ratio is only 4 percentage points above Koreas.
The US has been caught spying on allies and stealing secrets as well. Are we supposed to ignore the economic and industrial espionage that the US does?
Donny did no such thing as try to get Russia into the western sphere. The US has declared Russia an enemy for the last 100 years - UP: 0 DN: 0

中国对他们来说只是经济上的威胁，因为日本正处于经济衰退之中，他们的债务占名义GDP的比例是223.8%。韩国将中国视为其经济的威胁，而中国的债务占GDP的比例仅比韩国高4个百分点。
美国还被抓到监视盟国和窃取机密的行为。我们应该忽视美国从事的经济和工业间谍活动吗？
小唐没有试图让俄罗斯进入西方世界。过去100年来，美国一直宣称俄罗斯是美国的敌人。

Bill Spence
The US will avoid war with China. - UP: 3 DN: 0

美国将避免与中国开战。

AMstone
The US military does not promote on merit. It's a good old boys network of sycophants. Not unlike the CEO of any US corporation, one ran the military into the ground with endless conflicts, the other ran the economy into the ground with endless speculation and debt. They are diehard disaster capitalists. - UP: 1 DN: 1

美国军方并不是凭实力来提拔人才的。这是一个由阿谀奉承者组成的老家伙网络。就像任何一家美国公司的首席执行官一样，一个用没完没了的冲突把军队搞垮，另一个用没完没了的投机和债务把经济搞垮。他们是顽固的灾难资本家。

SonnenTanz
But, it's got a large army of transgender BLM activists that will fight hard for them. - UP: 0 DN: 0

但是，有一大批跨性别黑命贵积极分子，将为他们努力奋战。

Guest
US has done dirty work for chinaman and indian and now is own turn to croak. - UP: 1 DN: 1

美国对中国人和印度人做了下三滥的手段，现在轮到自己叫苦连天了。

SiriJed87
They couldn't defeat camel riding Teleban with annual $750 billion military machinery, imagine what China would do to them...I would put my money on Iranian military any time, or Russian military brass band for that matter... - UP: 20 DN: 0

他们无法用每年7500亿美元的军事装备打败骑骆驼的塔利班，想象一下中国会对他们做什么... 我会把钱押在伊朗军队身上，或者俄罗斯军队的铜管乐队上...

BlackIntel
The US misstep was when it isolated Russia while seeking to neutralise China. Historically it has been proven that You need an isolated China to attack. You cannot win against China when their neighbour Russia is in love with China. So America has lost that battle. Russia and China prevails. And They must remain together to counter the US aggressiveness and threats. - UP: 14 DN: 0

美国的失误是在孤立俄罗斯的同时试图对抗中国。历史证明，你只有孤立中国，才能对其攻击。当他们的邻居俄罗斯喜欢中国的时候，你是不可能战胜中国的。所以，美国已经输掉了这场战斗。俄罗斯和中国占上风。他们必须团结起来，共同对抗美国的侵略和威胁。

Trekker
You make some good points. The US has pushed Russia and China to be best friends and I think that over time, this will just continue to grow though joint investments and dependencies of their economies, scrubbing each other's backs. Russia also is a good partner with China in Africa, Central Asia and the Middle East, often complementing each other. - UP: 4 DN: 0

你说得很有道理。美国已经推动俄罗斯和中国成为最好的朋友，我认为，随着时间的推移，联合投资和经济的依赖，这种关系将继续增长。俄罗斯也是中国在非洲、中亚和中东的好伙伴，经常互补。

Bill Spence
The US has forgotten how to compete so they only rely on sanctions. That is a losing game today when China can retaliate. - UP: 3 DN: 0

美国已经忘记了如何竞争，所以他们只能依靠制裁。如今，当中国可以报复的时候，这是一场必输的游戏。

MiloDiddlbomb
Russia has never been in love with China - Obama's sanctions made them partners. - UP: 2 DN: 10

俄罗斯从来没有喜欢过中国，是奥巴马的制裁让他们成为了合作伙伴。

ZidaneX
Your logic applies to US relationship with it's vassals. Take japan for instance, do you think the proud Japanese love US and choose to be subservient despite being nuked and forced to accept the suicidal Plaza Accord ? - UP: 7 DN: 0

你的逻辑适用于美国与其附庸国的关系。以日本为例，你认为尽管被核武器攻击，日本人仍然喜欢美国，尽管被迫接受自杀性的广场协议，他们仍然选择屈从于美国？

Kiyomizuzaka
Very insightful point about Japan. The proud Japanese don't love the US.
Yet in South Korea's case, the country has been marinating in US cultural propaganda for so long, especially through the education system, and especially since the '97 financial crash/IMF bailout, that they are reluctant to cut the cord from their beloved lord and master.
South Korea has come to the conclusion that being a lapdog is a convenient, stable life, at whatever cost to honor and integrity. - UP: 0 DN: 0

关于日本的观点很有见地。骄傲的日本人不喜欢美国。
然而，就韩国而言，该国长期以来一直沉浸在美国的文化宣传中，尤其是通过教育体系，尤其是自1997年金融危机/国际货币基金组织援助以来，以至于他们不愿意切断自己敬爱的主子老爷的绳子。
韩国已经得出结论，做一只哈巴狗是一种方便、稳定的生活，不惜以荣誉和正直为代价。

Justify223
Relationship between Russia and China is symbiotic. They complement each other, with or without Obama's sanction. Their annual trade is approaching $200B. - UP: 5 DN: 0

俄罗斯和中国是共生的关系。不管有没有奥巴马的批准，他们都是相辅相成的。他们每年的贸易额接近2000亿美元。

MiloDiddlbomb
I guess you don't remember many of those trade agreements sat on the bargaining table for over a decade until Obama's sanctions. China only cares about Han Chinese. - UP: 2 DN: 1

我猜你不记得，在奥巴马的制裁之前，许多贸易协定都摆在谈判桌上十多年了。中国只关心汉人。

Vincent2000
USA forced China into that competitive with her constant false accusations of restricted shipping and naval freedom of navigation operations breaching of Chinese claims over some-reclaimed islands in the SCS despite the fact that commercial shipping in the region had never been hampered by China in anyway and that they lay in China's backyard while the US is some 10,000 miles away. - UP: 8 DN: 1

美国不断诬告中国限制航运和海军航行自由，违反了中国对南海一些填海岛屿的主权主张，迫使中国进入了这场竞争，尽管事实上，该地区的商业航运从来没有受到中国的阻碍，而且它们位于中国的后院，而美国在大约1万英里之外。

Trekker
This article hits it on the head. In the event of a conflict with China, the US's first option is to cut off China's shipping by shutting down access through the Malacca Strait. It is REALLY clear that it is really necessary for China to control the South China Sea. This includes having take over Taiwan (a part of China anyways).
In the next 5 years, China is going to push its control out another 500 km, so it can prevent the US from dominating the whole area. The US navy won't be able to get anywhere near China at this point. Meanwhile, China will be transporting a lot of its goods inland which also is a game changer. Its BRI developments will make it quite untouchable to the US military machine.
Big changes ahead. China will be twice as big as the US (in terms of parity of purchasing power) within 5 years and much of the world will report to Beijing (in terms of being allied business partners). - UP: 3 DN: 0

这篇文章正中要害。如果与中国发生冲突，美国的第一选择就是关闭通过马六甲海峡的航道，切断中国的航运。很明显，中国控制南海是非常有必要的。这包括接管台湾(不管怎样它都是中国的一部分)。
在未来5年，中国将把控制范围再扩大500公里，这样就可以阻止美国控制整个地区。这样，美国海军就不可能接近中国。与此同时，中国将向内陆运输大量货物，这也将改变游戏规则。一带一路的发展，会让美国的军事机器摸不着它。
未来会有巨大变化。在5年内，中国的规模(按购买力平价计算)将是美国的两倍，世界大部分地区将向北京报到(从成为联盟商业伙伴角度)。

Bill Spence
The US economy is tied to the Chinese economy. you could think of them as Siamese twins connected at the hip. The US wants to kill its brother. Imagine that. it will not work. And naval warfare today is far more destructive than ever before so the U.S. Navy could not operate anywhere near China. Expect no war between China and the US but Much huff and puff. - UP: 1 DN: 0

美国经济与中国经济息息相关。你可以把他们想象成连体婴儿。美国想要杀死它的兄弟。想象一下。这没用的。当今的海战比以往任何时候都更具破坏性，所以美国海军无法在中国附近的任何地方行动。预计中国和美国之间不会有战争，只会有很多的斗嘴。

czerenkob
5000 years of experience as a country vs 200+ years of experience as a country. On which country would you bet in case of conflict? - UP: 7 DN: 1

五千年的国家经验 vs 两百多年的国家经验。如果发生冲突，你会押注哪个国家？

RealWorld1
The older, the more obsolete. The US for example is long due for an overhaul, instead of worshiping quotes from hypocritical land-grabbers, who didn't want to pay taxes and share the spoils with London, better known by the group nickname "farmers". Their anachronistic Constitution does not even guarantee all citizens the right to vote! Thus far, the Chinese Communist Party has showed it can learn from it's own mistakes, an ability the Demopublicans have lost a long time ago. - UP: 4 DN: 0

越老就越过时。例如，美国早就应该进行彻底改革，而不是崇拜虚伪的土地掠夺者的名言。这些土地掠夺者不想纳税，也不想与伦敦分享战利品，他们更广为人知的绰号是“农场主”。他们过时的宪法甚至不能保证所有公民的选举权！到目前为止，中国共产党已经证明了它可以从自己的错误中吸取教训，而这种能力是民主党和共和党人早已失去的。

czerenkob
You wrote "The older, the more obsolete."
I agree. But also more resilient, more likely to survive in the long run. Consider this justification. Let's assume that the current point on the time scale is not special; that is, it is just a point in time. Therefore, statistically speaking, it is an average point, the center of Gaussian distribution. Therefore, half of the points are on the left of it, i.e., older, the past, and the other half on the right of the center, i.e. in the future. Now consider 5000 years in the past for China, implying 5000 years of future. And for the USA it is 250 years in the past, suggesting 250 years of future. That's it - very simple, no assumptions except that our point in time is not special. - UP: 0 DN: 0

你写的“越老就越过时。”
我同意。但也更有弹性，更有可能长期生存下去。考虑一下这个理由。让我们假设时间尺度上的当前点不是特殊；也就是说，它只是一个时间点。所以，从统计学上来说，这是一个平均点，也就是正态分布的中心。所以，有一半的点在中心点的左边，也就是更老的、过去的。而另一半在中心点的右边，也就是未来。
现在想想中国过去五千年的历史，预示着五千年的未来。对于美国来说，250年前的过去，预示着250年后的未来。就是这样——非常简单，除了我们的时间点并不特殊之外，没有任何假设。

Hassam275
This document is essentially saying american dominance in east Asia is over. - UP: 5 DN: 0

这份文件基本上是在说美国在东亚的主导地位已经结束了。

czerenkob
That's a good thing. The Americans should fix their own home. - UP: 2 DN: 0

这是一件好事，美国人应该管好他们自己的家。

yorky1
What sort of brain cell would you need to follow a strategy against a country that at the drop of a hat could put a million men into producing anti ship missiles. China has the manpower to manufacture such numbers.
Go home US and mind your own business - UP: 8 DN: 0

你需要什么样的脑细胞才能对抗一个可以随时投入一百万人生产反舰导弹的国家。中国有足够的人力来制造这样的数字。
回去吧美国，管好你们自己的事。

ChinAnkhKhan
China is big brother to Asia. yeah, they have disagreements as all brothers do, but in the end they are big brother. how so? well, Asia wouldn't be as independent as it is, if not for China. the water around Asia would have no security if not for China...drugs aren't pumped into Asia wholessale, because of China....when the West was victimizing Asia, China stood as a victim too....and now that China is not longer a victim, they seek to liberate those that are..you see, China is the bastion of revolution, self determination, independence, and truly living in freedom for the oppressed masses of the world.. No one trying to have war and fight. instead, learn the lessons of the past and make a brighter future for all life on earth...and China will do that. - UP: 6 DN: 0

中国是亚洲的大哥。是的，他们和所有兄弟一样有分歧，但最后他们还是大哥。为什么？如果不是因为中国，亚洲不会像现在这样独立。如果没有中国，亚洲周围的水域将不会有安全，由于中国的原因，毒品没有输送到整个亚洲，当西方侵害亚洲时，中国也是受害者，现在中国不再是受害者，他们寻求解放那些受害者。你看，中国是革命、自主、独立的堡垒，是世界上受压迫的人民真正自由生活的堡垒。没有人想要打仗。相反，吸取过去的教训，为地球上所有生命创造一个更加光明的未来，中国将做到这一点。

ceshawn
While I hate to agree with you on much ChinAnkhKhan, the reality is that there is a lot that the Western world could learn from Asian culture, especially China. While I don't support some of the operations of the Chinese government (draconian laws and censorship), it can't be denied that people in China feel one thing more than Americans...that they are, in fact, Chinese. The schism between multiple ideologies in America must not exist in China, and that is a grand lesson to learn. - UP: 2 DN: 0

虽然我不想同意你的许多观点，但事实是，西方世界可以从亚洲文化中学到很多东西，尤其是中国。虽然我不支持中国的某些行为(严厉的法律和审查制度) ，但不可否认的是，中国人比美国人更能感觉到一件事——他们是中国人。美国多种意识形态之间的分裂，在中国是绝不可能存在的，这是一个值得学习的重大教训。

bobby
Nothing wrong with nationalism as long as everyone shows mutual respect. Trump on the other hand is trying to promote wh1te supremacy as far as that's concerned. - UP: 2 DN: 0

只要大家互相尊重，民族主义没有错。另一方面，特朗普正试图宣扬白人至上主义。

AMstone
India, like its democratic mentor, is addicted to the profits of disaster capitalism. They will never have the capacity to reach the stated projections. They too, hardily impose a coldwar on citizens. The sanctions imposed on nation states are now on western citizens and it has be come a mega minimum security prison. - UP: 0 DN: 0

印度，就像它的民主导师一样，沉迷于灾难资本主义的利润。他们永远不会有能力达到所宣称的经济预测。他们也强硬地将冷战强加给公民。对民族国家实施的制裁现在针对的是西方公民，而且这里已经变成了一个超级不安全的监狱。

cosmonaut15
The US better accept the reality and mind their own domestic problem or strengthen their own sphere of influence in the Western hemisphere. The world is changing and a unipolar world superpower is no more. - UP: 2 DN: 0

美国最好接受现实，管好他们自己的国内问题，或者加强他们在西半球的势力范围。世界正在发生变化，单极世界超级大国已不复存在。

OB Norm
Every empire rise and fall, but find way to survive are very important. China did it for more than 3 thousand year and they are not finish yet. - UP: 3 DN: 0

每一个帝国都有兴衰，但是找到生存之道是非常重要的。中国已经寻找三千多年了，但是他们还没有结束寻找。

Zeta029
And by 'not finished' we see that China is number one economy of the world in real money/gold/products, ignoring Wall Street fake numbers this is the reality. - UP: 1 DN: 0

至于“还没有结束寻找”，在真实货币/黄金/产品经济方面，我们看到中国是世界第一的经济体了，无视华尔街的虚假数字，这就是现实。

RTaccount
America is becoming more dysfunctional by the day.
And good luck fielding a 'diverse' military against a technological peer like China or Russia. You will get smoked. - UP: 6 DN: 0

美国正变得越来越失调。
部署一支“多样化”的军队来对抗像中国或俄罗斯这样的技术同行，祝你们好运，你们会输掉的。

Iwanasay
The US isn't a chess player, it doesn't think moves ahead, India should also be thinking ahead because if the US will do this to China to stop their progress up the ladder it will do it to anyone, even the EU - UP: 7 DN: 0

美国不是棋手，它不考虑下一步，印度应该末雨绸缪，因为如果美国对中国这样做，阻止他们进步，那么它将对任何国家这样做，甚至欧盟。

Zeta029
Nah, India thinks they are too poor for US to come and rob them, but they should remember that never stopped England from robbing them for centuries. - UP: 0 DN: 0

不，印度认为他们太穷了，美国不可能来抢劫他们的，但是他们应该记住，几个世纪以来，这从未阻止过英国抢劫他们。

lolaus
If that is the case, talk about a debilitated mentality. Want to be powerful, bullying, and imperialistic while whinning sanctimoniously, how poor and destitute and how spiritual they are, which is a lot of bunkum. India is a thug nation. - UP: 0 DN: 0

如果是这样的话，这是一种虚弱的心态。想要强大、恃强凌弱、帝国主义，而同时又装模作样地哀嚎，他们是多么的穷苦潦倒啊，他们是多么的虔诚啊，这些都是胡说八道。印度就是一个暴徒国家。

butterfly123
In any event, China will prosper. Russia will succeed. US is on free fall. - UP: 3 DN: 0

无论如何，中国会繁荣起来，俄罗斯会成功，美国处于自由落体。

1Just_Dessert
US can't even defeat Afghanistan! did you really think they could defeat a country huge and armed to the teeth like China? Iran it's very important that you get your nukes asap. - UP: 4 DN: 0

美国连阿富汗都打不赢！难道真的认为他们能打败一个像中国这样庞大而武装到牙齿的国家吗？伊朗，你们必须尽快拥有你们的核武器。

Arian1
I recall not so long ago a handful of Ethiopians taking the 10 million dollars helicopter down and killing entire lot of 19 soldiers, with a couple of stones and an odd wooden stick. If these primitives could defeat "superior usa technology", imagine what would Chinese, armed to the teeth and capable of messing up usanian "superior technology", do to these "patriots" and "heros". - UP: 3 DN: 0

我记得不久前，几个埃塞俄比亚人用几块石头和一根奇怪的木棍，击落了价值1000万美元的直升机，杀死了整整19名士兵。如果这些原始人能够击败“美国高科技”，想象一下，全副武装、有能力破坏美国“高科技”的中国人，会对这些“爱国者”和“英雄”做些什么呢？

changyao
The last painful roar of an inevitable dying Empire before being isolated by the rest of the world even former vassals - UP: 5 DN: 1

这是一个必然灭亡的帝国，在被世界其他国家甚至是前附属国孤立之前，发出的最后痛苦的嚎叫。

Thrutblue
China and Asians had defeated the Jow warmonger criminal establishment hiding in US/West, Opium war, Korean war and Vietnam war, history remember, crime must pays, China and Asian retaliate, get the ready, H-2.0 is imminent. - UP: 2 DN: 0

中国和亚洲打败了藏匿在美国/西方的战争贩子集团，鸦片战争、朝鲜战争和越南战争，历史记得，犯罪必须付出代价，中国和亚洲的报复，做好准备吧，H-2.0即将到来。

ChinAnkhKhan
The title is misleading..America has no doubt it can defeat China in a War..America can defeat any country in a war...the problem, how do they do it without themselves being destroyed...that, is the dillema. - UP: 3 DN: 1

这个标题有误导性，美国毫无疑问可以在战争中打败中国。美国可以在战争中击败任何一个国家，问题是，他们如何在自己不被摧毁的情况下做到这点，这就是所谓的“进退两难”。

RTaccount
Godspeed to China!
Godspeed to Russia!
The sooner America collapses, the better. - UP: 6 DN: 1

祝中国一切顺利！
祝俄罗斯一切顺利！
美国越早崩溃越好。

Earthwatch
Give it a rest. Russia and China are children. - UP: 0 DN: 3

省省吧，俄罗斯和中国都是孩子。

omenhr
Chine is like 7k years old. If wisdom is hidden it is there. US can do Indo-something-something but Chine is way above their pay-grade. :) To be honest, I'm happy that my dear Russians have their back covered, at least for few decades, Russian are impressive nation 1k year old having all possible cataclysm a man can think off. It's time for Rus to take a breath. - UP: 1 DN: 0

中国好像有七千岁了。如果智慧是隐藏的，它就在那里。美国可以做一些印度式的事情，但中国远远超出了他们的应付水平。:) 老实说，我很高兴我亲爱的俄罗斯人至少在过去的几十年里一直在保护他们，俄罗斯是一个令人印象深刻的一千年历史的国家，经历了数不胜数的灾难。是时候让俄罗斯喘口气了。

Srbo911
America should play nice with China,otherwise America will disappear. - UP: 3 DN: 1

美国应该和中国友好相处，否则美国就会消失。

freehuman
I have yet to decide which political system is better. Royalty: the rule of one. Communism: the rule of the few. Democracy: the rule of the mentally-challenged - UP: 1 DN: 0

我还没有决定哪种政治体制更好。
皇室：一个人的统治。
共产：少数人的统治。
民主：智障者的统治。

changyao
By the end of this decade, US will realise, or forced by circumstances, that the best option is to accept China's proposal, Mutual Respect Mutual Benefits and abandon its demand, America First and World Domination mentality. - UP: 4 DN: 1

到本世纪末，美国将意识到，或迫于形势，最好的选择是接受中国的建议——互相尊重，互利互惠，放弃其要求，即美国优先和征服世界的心态。

allperils2020
As if they have a choice. - UP: 2 DN: 1

好像他们可以选择似的。