[2020-11-10]你认为美国2020年的选举存在作弊吗？

Claes-Bertil Lewau lives in Gothenburg, Sweden
Yes of course. There has most likely never been any major election in modern times in any country totally void from fraud. The question isn’t whether there is any or not but where, by whom and how it has been perpetrated. Well done fraud of course goes undetected but assuming that there should ever be an election without any attempt of fraud at all is preposterous.
That’s why a country needs a solid election system that is safe! The US doesn’t have that. I live in Sweden and ours isn’t perfect but a hell of a lot safer

【回答】住在瑞典哥德堡
当然有。在现代，任何一个国家的重大选举都可能有作弊的。问题不在于是否有，而在于在哪里、由谁以及如何发生的。做得好的作弊行为当然不会被发现，但假设在选举中没有任何舞弊行为就是荒谬的。
这就是为什么一个国家需要一个稳固而安全的选举制度！而美国没有。我住在瑞典，我们的生活并不完美，但要安全得多。

Michael O'Leary
(I am a former Poll Inspector for NYS)
If there is any fraud it is probably only related to the Mail in Ballots.
Do I believe there was fraud? There ALWAYS is a bit of voter fraud every year, but is there ever enough to turn an election? I’m not convinced there is in other elections but this one is very different due to the mail in.
And it comes down to chain of custody…
When you vote in person it is nearly impossible for vote fraud to occur unless the poll inspectors are really bad at their job. Don’t check signatures or ask for the address to verify they are who they say they are. This is rare and because most poll inspection teams consist of a representative registered to both parties (Rep and Dem) who work together and make calls on how to proceed if there are any issues each side is kept honest. Once a voter is verified they get their blank ballot, fill it out and stick it in the machine, Vote counted….Very little room to taint those votes.

【回答】
(我以前是纽约的投票检查员)
如果有任何作弊行为，它可能只是与邮寄选票有关。
我相信有作弊吗？每年都有一些选举舞弊，但是有足够的票数来扭转选举吗？我不相信在其他的选举中也会有这样的情况，但这次由于邮寄选票，情况非常不同。
这就涉及到监管链…
当你亲自投票时，投票舞弊几乎不可能发生，除非投票检查员真的做得很烂。不用核对签名或询问地址来证实他们是谁。这是很少见的，因为大多数投票检查小组由一名在两党(共和党和民主党)登记的代表组成，他们一起工作，如果有任何问题双方都能诚实地解决，他们会打电话询问如何进行。一旦选民被核实，他们就会得到空白选票，把它填好，然后放进机器，然后计票……几乎没有玷污选票的余地。

With Mail in, you are not sure of who actually gets the ballot because there is no inspector there to ensure the person the ballot belongs to is the person who got it.
This means someone could easily intercept the ballot, and do what they want with it. Sure the signature is meant to stop fraud but when you have 300,000 ballots to tally how careful do you think those are being looked at?
Second is the practice of Ballot collecting by certain groups. This practice is fraught with Fraud because not only do they get their completed ballot but they get the signature as well so they can easily sneak open the envelope, recast the votes to their favor and fake the signature that was on the original. reseal it in the same envelope and no one can prove it isn’t the original.

随着邮寄选票的方式进来，你不能确定谁真正得到了选票，因为那里没有检查员来确保选票所属的人是得到它的人。
这意味着有人可以很容易地拦截选票，并做他们想做的事。当然，签名是为了防止舞弊，但当你有30万张选票要计票时，你认为这些选票会被仔细检查吗？
其次是由某些团体收集选票的做法。这种做法充满了作弊行为，因为他们不仅得到了完整的选票，而且还得到了签名，所以他们可以很容易地偷偷打开信封，重做对自己有利的选票，并伪造原件上的签名。重新封在同一个信封里，没人能证明它不是原件。

And one last problem with Mail in (which is why everyone pandemic or not should vote in person). If you go to the polls and they question or challenge your right to vote you have the ability to confront those people face to face. Once your vote is in the machine, no one can question you and the vote will count.
But Mail in Ballots can be questioned by the inspectors without you ever knowing they did. They can easily claim the signature isn’t a close enough match and throw that vote away. And you would not know a thing about it.
So while I understand the need for Mail in voting during a pandemic I do urge everyone to take the risk and vote in person whenever possible.

还有最后一个关于邮寄选票的问题(这就是为什么每个人都应该亲自投票，无论是否有疫情)。如果你去投票，他们质疑你的投票权，你有能力直面他们。一旦你的选票进入机器，没有人可以质疑你，选票就会算数。
但是邮寄过来的选票可能会被检查人员质疑，但你毫不知情。他们可以很容易地声称签名不够匹配，然后把选票丢掉。而你对此一无所知。
因此，虽然我理解在疫情期间需要通过邮件投票，但我确实敦促每个人冒着风险，尽可能亲自投票。

The risk to your health is less than the risk of losing your country.
In closing, I don’t expect the election to get overturned or enough fraud to be proved to be able to overturn the election as it stands.
I do find it odd that:
The in person vote looked like a fairly normal split between Dems and Repubs but the Mail ins were overwhelmingly one sided towards the Dems.
I could understand a 10–15 point difference in the mail in votes towards one party or the other…But not the 50 point difference that seems to have played out in just the mail ins. Add to that the difficulty and delay in counting in just the democratic counties of these votes I find disturbing.
In the end Biden will likely be the president and I will support him just as I supported Trump when I didn’t care for him but he won.
What will be interesting to see is what happens in Georgia Senate races because I don’t think they are going to get away with anything they might have done with mail in votes this election day.

对你健康的风险比失去你的国家的风险要小。
最后，我不希望选举被推翻，也不希望有足够的舞弊被证明能够推翻目前的选举。
我确实觉得很奇怪：
当面投票看起来像民主党和共和党之间正常的分裂，但是邮寄选票就压倒性地偏向民主党。
我能理解10-15点的选票差距，但不能理解50点的差距，似乎只在邮寄选票方面。此外，我感到不安的是，仅仅在支持民主党的县进行计票有困难和拖延。
最后拜登很可能会成为总统，我会支持他，就像我不喜欢特朗普但他赢了时支持他一样。
有意思的是，乔治亚州的参议员竞选将会发生什么，因为我不认为他们会在选举日利用邮寄选票而得逞。

Gary Bisaga
I’m assuming you’re talking about the presidential election. Yes, there is always the chance for a tiny bit of fraud or mistakes. As you can see in other answers, the actual amount calculated by groups such as the conservative Heritage Foundation shows the amount to be extremely, even vanishingly, tiny. Even in the current messed up Electoral College system, it would not make any difference whatsoever.
What's more, every one of the “fraud” reports I have heard are either lies and hearsay or better explained as simple mistakes. Example: Some votes were found sent to the wrong post office. You don't have to posit some deep state conspiracy: somebody just put the wrong destination. Never attribute to malice what can be explained by incompetence.

【回答】
我猜你说的是总统大选。是的，总是有可能有一点点的作弊或错误。正如你在其他答案中看到的，由保守的传统基金会等组织计算出的实际数字显示，这个数字极其微小，甚至微不足道。即使是在目前混乱的选举团制度下，这也不会有任何区别。
更重要的是，我听到的每一个“作弊”报告要么是谎言和传闻，要么就是简单的错误。有些选票被送到了错误的邮局。你不必假设某个隐形政府的阴谋：只是有人放错了目的地。绝不要把可以解释为无能的事情归咎于恶意。

Colin Riegels
I am not seeing it. Yes, there is a lot of noise, especially on social media. But credible evidence? Not yet. And they are looking hard.
Conversely, all the wild and wacky claims that are being made on social media are quickly debunked when they are fact checked.
Of the over-a-dozen lawsuits that Trump has so far filed (!) challenging votes and alleging fraud, the majority have already been dismissed as baseless.[1][2]
I don’t doubt that the tin-foil hat crowd will keep braying at the moon indefinitely, but it seems wildly improbable to me that any fraud - much less widescale fraud on the scale implied - will be found.
Do you know how many fraudulent votes were cast in US elections between 2000 and 2014? Thirty one.[3] But despite an average of just over two per year, we are supposed to believe that a country which has robust anti-fraud procedures has been absolutely overrun by fraud in 2020? Despite the fact that the White House and Senate and most of the states are controlled by the other party? Makes no sense.

【回答】
我没有看到。是的，有很多杂音，尤其是在社交媒体上。但是可信证据呢？还没有。他们正在努力寻找。
相反，所有在社交媒体上发表的荒唐言论，一旦经过事实核查，很快就会被揭穿。
到目前为止，特朗普已经提起了十多起质疑投票和指控欺诈的诉讼，其中大多数都被认为是毫无根据的。
我毫不怀疑戴着锡箔帽的人们会不停地对着月亮叫嚷，但在我看来，任何作弊行为，更不用说隐含的大规模作弊行为，都不太可能发生。
你知道在2000年到2014年的美国大选中有多少张选票是伪造的吗？31张。但是，尽管平均每年只有2起，我们应该相信一个拥有健全反作弊程序的国家，在2020年充满作弊行为？尽管白宫、参议院和大多数州都是由另一个政党控制的？这说不通。

Joshua Suh B.A Economics, Columbia University (2018)
I have been doing a lot of thinking about this voter fraud concept and have come to a new realization.
I stand by my opinion that voter fraud is easier to commit with mail-in ballots. I also developed perhaps an overly pessimistic view of human nature during my more difficult years. Thus, I have a hard time trusting a significant proportion of humans to do the right thing, especially when no one is watching.

【回答】哥伦比亚大学经济学学士(2018年)
我一直在思考这个选票作弊的概念，并有了一个新的认识。
我坚持我的观点，邮寄选票更容易进行选票作弊。在我艰难的岁月里，我对人性也产生了一种过于悲观的看法。因此，我很难相信很大一部分人会做正确的事情，尤其是在没有人注视的情况下。

In fact, there are many episodes conveying voter fraud. Trashed ballots, dead peoples’ votes being counted, machine glitches, suspiciously high turnout in Democrat counties, pro-Biden ballots that are otherwise blank, poll watchers being denied access, and etc. Liberals tend to brush these episodes as anomalies that fail to indelicate systemic corruption in the voting process.
However, at the same time, I’ve long railed against the BLM movement. I’ve strongly criticized it as being a hate group that mistakenly slanders America as being systemically racist. To others, such as myself, George Floyd’s death is an anomaly, and the misfortunes of minority communities primarily stem from a culture that values financial success less.

事实上，有很多事情都在传达选票作弊的信息。垃圾选票、正在清点的死人选票、机器故障、民主党县高得令人生疑的投票率、支持拜登的选票都是空白的、投票观察员被拒之门外，等等。自由派倾向于将这些事件视为异常现象，认为在投票过程中未能对系统性腐败行为进行检举。
但与此同时，我也一直对黑命贵运动表示不满。我强烈批评它是一个仇恨组织，它错误地诬蔑美国是系统性的种族主义者。对我这样的人来说，乔治·弗洛伊德的死是一种反常现象，少数族裔的不幸主要源于一种不太看重财务成功的文化。

James Edward
At bare minimum some postal workers restamped the posting dates for some mail-in ballots so that late votes could be counted. I believe this is technically a double-felony. The Postmaster General is considering criminal charges, but I have not heard an update past that. There are also reports of ballots from armed forces being outright discarded, although I have not been able to confirm those.
So yes, there absolutely was voter fraud in the 2020 presidential race. What’s more, it appears to have taken several different forms, so no one audit is likely to detect all the voter fraud going on.
People tend to fixate on asking “how much,” and not see the bigger picture. Voter fraud is the proverbial iceberg of ignorance. Each fraudulent vote you do find indicates many others. Maybe that number is five, maybe it’s fifty. We don’t know. That’s just how the math of uncertainty works.

【回答】
至少，一些邮政工作人员重新加盖了一些邮寄选票的邮寄日期，以便对迟交的选票进行计数。我相信严格来说这是双重重罪。邮政局长正在考虑刑事指控，但我没有听到任何关于此事的最新消息。也有报道称武装部队的选票被直接废弃，尽管我还不能证实这些说法。
所以，是的，在2020年的总统竞选中，绝对存在作弊的现象。更重要的是，它似乎采取了几种不同的形式，所以可能没有一个审计机构会发现所有的选票作弊行为。

Anonymous
There’s always fraud in US elections.
However, the fraud mostly affects local elections, because pulling off a fraud at the national level is too hard.

【回答】
美国选举中总是有作弊现象。
然而，作弊行为主要影响到地方选举，因为在国家层面上实行作弊行为太难了。