[2020-09-22](伊朗选择中国而不是印度) 伊朗和中国着眼于未来与美国脱钩

Kaveh L. Afrasiabi
In recent weeks, Iran and China have been hammering out the details of a potentially momentous cooperation deal meant to span the next quarter-century and chart a future decoupled from the United States.
Under the terms of a draft viewed by Asia Times, China will invest tens of billions of US dollars in Iran as part of Beijing’s ambitious Road and Belt Initiative. The 25-year agreement includes economic, security, and military dimensions.

最近几个星期，伊朗和中国一直在敲定一项可能具有重大意义的合作协议的细节，这项协议旨在跨越下一个25年，并规划出一个与美国脱钩的未来。
根据《亚洲时报》看到的草案条款，中国将向伊朗投资数百亿美元，作为中国雄心勃勃的“一带一路”倡议的一部分。这项为期25年的协议包括经济、安全和军事方面的内容。

Such a deal is particularly important for Iran’s ailing energy sector, which is in dire need of substantial investment to refurbish an aging oil industry, which requires upwards of $150 billion for much-needed modernization of wells, refineries and other infrastructure.
The negotiations are ongoing, even as the Donald Trump administration continues to pin hope on Iran’s economic strangulation by a unilateral maximum pressure strategy and against the backdrop of growing US-China rivalry.

这一协议对伊朗境况不佳的能源行业尤为重要，该行业迫切需要大量的投资，以重振老化的石油行业。为了对油井、炼油厂和其他基础设施进行急需的现代化改造，该行业需要高达1500亿美元的资金。
谈判正在进行，尽管唐纳德 · 特朗普政府继续将希望寄托在通过单边最大压力战略扼杀伊朗经济的行动上，而且是在中美之间的竞争日益激烈的背景之下。

If approved by the Iranian parliament, the plan represents a major affront to the Trump administration’s relentless pursuit of Iran’s economic isolation in the international community. As expected, news of the China-Iran agreement has set off a chorus of condemnation in the West.
Some Iranian opponents in exile have branded the plan as the Islamic Republic’s “sellout” to China and view it as a testament to China’s ability to transform Iran into one of its “satellites.” Critics have falsely claimed the plan contains a “monopoly clause”, most controversially granting China control over one of Iran’s Persian Gulf islands.Should China undertake such a massive long-term investment in Iran, it is very likely that Beijing will take over the strategic Iranian port of Chahbahar — the country’s outlet to the Indian Ocean.

如果得到伊朗议会的批准，该计划将是对特朗普政府在国际社会中不懈追求伊朗经济孤立的重大侮辱。不出所料，中国和伊朗达成协议的消息引起了西方国家的一片谴责之声。
一些流亡在外的伊朗反对者将该计划称为伊斯兰共和国对中国的“出卖”，并将其视为中国有能力将伊朗转变为其“卫星国”之一的证明。批评人士错误地声称，该计划包含一项“垄断条款”，最具争议的是，授予中国对伊朗波斯湾一个岛屿的控制权。如果中国在伊朗进行这么大规模的长期投资，中国很可能会接管具有战略意义的伊朗港口恰巴哈尔港，这是伊朗通往印度洋的出口。

The new Iran-China agreement points to both nations’ changing strategic calculus in the current international milieu, where international norms and principles have been eroded largely by the Trump administration’s unilateral and aggressive policies vis-a-vis Tehran and Beijing.
Slowly but surely, a triumvirate of China, Iran and neighboring Pakistan is forming. This alliance could also encompass Afghanistan and over time is expected to add Iraq and Syria, strategic anathema to Washington and New Delhi.A final China-Iran deal would be a win-win serving the national interests of both sides.For sanctions and pandemic-hit Iran, it will offer important leeway to economically survive at a difficult juncture.

新的伊朗-中国协议表明，在当前的国际环境下，两国的战略考量都在发生变化。特朗普政府对德黑兰和北京采取的单边和侵略性政策，在很大程度上侵蚀了国际准则和原则。
中国、伊朗和邻国巴基斯坦正在缓慢而稳步地形成三巨头联盟。这一联盟还可能包括阿富汗，随着时间的推移，预计还会包括伊拉克和叙利亚，这是华盛顿和新德里的战略梦魇。中伊最终达成协议会是符合双方国家利益的双赢局面。对于受到制裁和全球性打击的伊朗来说，这将提供重要的回旋余地，使其经济能够在困难的关头中生存下去。

That assumes, of course, that Washington is willing to ease its persistent sanctions and threats. That remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the recent spate of suspicious fires and sabotage at the Natanz nuclear facility and Parchin military complex will embolden Iran’s hardliners, who see no ground for optimism of a possible US policy shift.
They see China’s steadfast defense of Iran at the UN Security Council as a testament to Beijing’s reliability. Iranian hardliners are also cognizant of their country’s ability to serve China’s BRI, not only for the 80 million-strong Iranian market but the larger Eurasian landmass encompassing some 4.6 billion people.

当然，前提是华盛顿愿意放松其持续的制裁和威胁。这还有待观察。与此同时，最近伊朗纳坦兹核设施和帕尔钦军事设施发生的一连串可疑的火灾和破坏活动，将会让伊朗的强硬派更加大胆，他们认为没有理由对美国转变政策的可能性感到乐观。
中国在联合国安理会对伊朗坚定的捍卫态度，他们把这视为中国可靠的证明。伊朗的强硬派也认识到，他们的国家有能力为中国的一带一路倡议服务，不仅仅是为了伊朗8000万人口的强大市场服务，也为了包含约46亿人口的更大的欧亚大陆服务。

Daniel808
The point of This Game Changer Deal :
1. Iranian offering Chabahar Port to China.
2. Slowly but sure, Anti american Alliance between China, Pakistan, Iran, Russia, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria is forming.
3. A China-Iran Deal seen as a Win-Win Deal for both sides in the eyes of Iranian people.
4. Iranian Hardliners even expect with Iran Officially Join China's BRI Alliance, Iran would be able to connect with Eurasian Market encompassing some 4.6 Billion people.
Welcome onboard, to our Iranian friends
All the best for both countries

这项改变游戏规则的协议要点是：
1. 伊朗向中国提供恰巴哈尔港。
2. 中国、巴基斯坦、伊朗、俄罗斯、阿富汗、伊拉克和叙利亚之间的反美联盟正在慢慢形成。
3. 在伊朗人民看来，中伊协议是双方的双赢协议。
4. 伊朗的强硬派甚至希望，随着伊朗正式加入中国的一带一路联盟，伊朗将能够与包含约46亿人口的欧亚市场建立联系。
欢迎加入，欢迎我们的伊朗朋友。
祝两国万事如意。

Dalit
Good news. I like it very much. India did backstab Iran after all. I can only hope Iran, Pakistan and China can have excellent trade and commence relations. Put your differences aside and team up for the good of your people and the region. Put extreme amount of effort into making this an absolute success.

很好的消息。我非常喜欢这个消息。毕竟，印度确实在背后捅了伊朗一刀。我只能希望伊朗、巴基斯坦和中国能有良好的贸易和商业关系。把你们的分歧放在一边，为了你们的人民和地区的利益而团结起来。付出极大的努力，让它成为绝对的成功。

mohammad45
Indian abusers used every chance to harm Pakistan. They sent spies and terrorists in disguise of engineers, investors, workers etc. This unfriendly gesture is a good excuse to kick them out of Chabahar

印度施虐者利用一切机会来伤害巴基斯坦。他们以工程师、投资者、工人等的名义派遣间谍和恐怖分子过来。这种不友好的姿态，是把他们赶出恰巴哈尔港的一个很好的借口

IceCold
We certainly hope so. Chinese investment in Iran will also increase cooperation between Pakistan and Iran. Adding Afghanistan after US withdrawal will further sweeten the deal. The Indians can continue to dance on Uncle SAM's tune. Finaly Kashmir needs to be liberated from India so that all threats to CPEC are eliminated in the region. Naturally challenges will continue to arise elsewhere but this region needs to be freed from US hegemonic desire along with its poodle India. So that we could focus on Palestine and how to liberate it from Israeli occupation.

我们当然希望如此。中国在伊朗的投资也将加强巴基斯坦和伊朗之间的合作。在美国撤军后，让阿富汗加入将会使协议锦上添花。印度人可以继续跟着山姆大叔的拍子起舞。最后，克什米尔需要从印度解放出来，以便消除该地区对中巴经济走廊的所有威胁。当然，其它地区将继续面临挑战，但这个地区需要摆脱美国的霸权欲望，以及它的狗腿子印度。这样我们就可以把重点放在巴勒斯坦以及如何把它从以色列的占领下解放出来。

mohammad45
Well said.

说得好。

IceCold
My only hope is to see Kashmir and Palestine getting freed in our life time.

我唯一的希望就是，在我们有生之年里看到克什米尔和巴勒斯坦获得自由。

Daniel808
Indian trollers in here will be butthurt so much, they got left behind

这里的印度巨魔会很受伤的，他们被甩在后面了。

Dalit
I cannot wait for this to be put in motion. The RSS Indian rapists and white angry Anglo-Saxon rear will be in flames.

我已经迫不及待这个计划马上就实施。那些RSS印度强奸犯和愤怒的盎格鲁-撒克逊白人的屁股将被架起来烤。

HttpError
But But Chabahar would have bypassed Pakistan and would have given direct access to Indians into Afghanistan?? and Chabahar was their answer to our Gawadar?

但是恰巴哈尔港会绕过巴基斯坦，让印度人直接进入阿富汗吗？？恰巴哈尔港是他们对我们瓜达尔港的回应吗？

925boy
Well.....you have to just accept that internationally and strategically, BUSINESS OPPORTUNITY is a big priority for the Chinese govt.

你必须接受这样一个事实：在国际上和战略上，商业机会是中国的首要目标。

Dalit
Iran is smart enough to understand that it was being used by India. Iran needs to ditch India fast. India is a backstabbing bitch that has already proved its deceit. India is a loyal bitch of the Anglo-Saxon nexus. It doesn't care about Iran or the region. It only cares about being a pooch and a puppet of USA. India switches sides like a chameleon. Whenever it suits Hindustan it will befriend Iran or any other country. When its interests are at stake it will backstab and dicth so-called friends to fend for themselves. India has no principles or loyalty and Iran found out the very hard way. At a time when India should have supported Iran it looked the other way and stood with its master US.
Let Chabahar and Gwadar be twin sister ports. Not competitors, but two options that complement each other. There is so much potential here if Iran joins the OBOR/CPEC project.

伊朗很聪明，知道自己被印度利用了。伊朗需要尽快抛弃印度。印度是个背后捅刀子的婊子，已经证明了它的阴险。印度是盎格鲁-撒克逊关系的忠实婊子。它并不关心伊朗或该地区。它只关心成为美国的狗子和傀儡。印度就像变色龙一样变换立场。只要是对印度有利的，它就会与伊朗或任何其他国家友好相处。当利益受到威胁时，它会从背后捅刀子，抛弃所谓的朋友自谋生路。印度没有原则，也没有忠诚，伊朗经过非常艰难的方式才发现了这一点。在印度本应支持伊朗的时候，它却视而不见，与它的主人美国站在一起。
让恰巴哈尔港和瓜达尔港成为双胞胎姐妹港。不是竞争对手，而是两个相辅相成的选择。如果伊朗加入一带一路或者中巴经济走廊项目，会有很大的潜力。

mohammad45
No Chabahar is a part of North South corridor. China wants Gwadar to bypass Malacca.

不，恰巴哈尔港是南北走廊的一部分。中国希望瓜达尔港绕过马六甲。

Dalit
So will Chabahar and both can complement each other within the region. The time for petty games is over now. The peoples of this region want action. We have no better opportunity today when the US Anglo-Saxon nexus is showing its angry face. Time to unite for betterment of our people and region.
China is a glue that will unite the region. The spoilers will be left out. Let the spoilers suck Anglo-Saxon boots. Other regional countries will work together.

所以恰巴哈尔港和瓜达尔港都能在亚洲地区内相互补充。现在，小打小闹的时代已经结束了。这个地区的人民需要行动起来。今天，当美国盎格鲁-撒克逊露出愤怒的表情时，这就是我们绝佳的机会。是团结起来造福我们人民和地区的时候了。
中国是将该地区团结起来的粘合剂。阻扰者将被排除。让那些阻扰者去舔盎格鲁-撒克逊人的鞋子吧。其他地区的国家将共同努力。

mohammad45
Its already done bro. No One gives a shit about Indian concerns.
Pakistani minister visited Chabahar port for multiple times asking for a railway between two ports.
Pakistan is already using Chabahar railways to export goods to eastern EU. Or they have intentions to do so.

已经这样做了，兄弟。没人在乎印度的问题。
巴基斯坦部长多次访问恰巴哈尔港口，要求在两个港口之间修建铁路。
巴基斯坦已经在使用恰巴哈铁路向欧盟东部出口货物，或者他们有这样做的意图。

Dalit
Alhamdulillah. This is superb news. May Allah give us and our leaders the wisdom to unite. In these tough times we need to unite and stand together.

感谢真主。这真是一个极好的消息。愿真主赐予我们和我们的领导人团结一致的智慧。在这艰难的时刻，我们需要团结起来，站在一起。

Tom99
Iran wants to work with China because China have been steady friend, trade and development partner for a long time now. What Iran signed with China is not an exclusionary deal, as China wouldn't force something like that on Iran. Any other countries, including India, are welcomed to invest in Iran with similar deals as it had with China.

伊朗希望与中国合作，因为中国长期以来一直是伊朗的稳定朋友、贸易和发展伙伴。伊朗与中国签署的协议并非排他性协议，因为中国不会强迫伊朗签署这样的协议。包括印度在内的任何其它国家，都欢迎与中国签订类似在伊朗投资的协议。

Daniel808
But they will did that in expense of indian interest
Whatever good for Chinese and Pakistani people, is a bad dream for indian

但他们这样做会损害印度的利益。
无论对中国和巴基斯坦人民有什么好处，这对印度人来说都是一个噩梦。

alphapak
This is good news for China, Iran and Pakistan.

这对中国、伊朗和巴基斯坦都是好消息。

Beast
Iran need to accept rmb for all transaction. Ditch all USD and Euro.

伊朗需要在所有交易中接受人民币。抛弃所有美元和欧元。

Daniel808
Soon, after BRI Completed. All of trade in Eurasia and Africa will using RMB as payment transaction

很快了，在一带一路完成后。欧亚大陆和非洲的所有贸易会使用人民币作为支付交易的。

925boy
if you're talking about today, then make RMB more convertible....you want IRan to accept RMB but what can IRan do with that RMB? can IRan convert it to other currencies??

如果你说的是今天，让人民币更自由兑换... 你希望伊朗接受人民币，但是伊朗能用这些人民币做什么呢？伊朗能将人民币兑换成其他货币吗？

Beast
You didn't know China is the world factory? You can used rmb to get Chinese goods from electronic to commodities.
RMBi is so useful.

你不知道中国是世界工厂吗? 你可以用人民币买中国产品，从电子设备到商品。
人民币很有用。

925boy
China will make Pakistan actually cooperate with Iran...Iran has been open, but Pakistan has been wary, to not piss off US or GCC, but it seems that era just ended...

中国会让巴基斯坦与伊朗实现真正合作... 伊朗一直是开放的，但巴基斯坦一直很谨慎，以免惹恼美国或海湾合作委员会，但似乎那个时代刚刚已经结束了...

alphapak
Or maybe China will make Iran cooperate with Pakistan.

也许中国会让伊朗和巴基斯坦合作。

925boy
Iran already wants to cooperate- prime example is Iran building its part of the IPI pipeline up to Pakistan's border.....but if only Pakistan would do its own part...it would already have tons of cheap reliable gas and oil now..you guys could have leveraged US more, maybe, not sure...but you cant turn this around on Iran because there is no evidence Pakistan wants to trade seriously with a sanctioned Iran.

伊朗已经想要合作了——最好的例子是伊朗正在建设通往巴基斯坦边境的一部分 IPI 管道（译者注：指伊朗、巴基斯坦和印度的天然气管道）... 但是如果巴基斯坦能够尽自己的一份力量的话... 它现在已经拥有大量廉价可靠的天然气和石油。你们本可以更多地影响美国，也许，不确定... 但是你们不能把矛头指向伊朗，因为没有证据表明巴基斯坦愿意与一个受制裁的伊朗进行严肃的贸易。

Flash_Ninja
The US is Pakistans largest export destination, and alongside the EU and other western nations makes up a huge chunk of its overall trade. To jeapordise that in order to have slightly cheaper oil and gas would only result in Pakistan becoming bankrupt which it has already been dangerously close to as it is...

美国是巴基斯坦最大的出口目的地，与欧盟和其他西方国家一道，构成了巴基斯坦总贸易份额的很大一部分。为了获得稍微便宜一点的石油和天然气，只会导致巴基斯坦破产，它也已经很危险了...

925boy
I agree. A good part/majority of that decision is based on strategic interest of Pakistan. Times will change though for things like that, because nothing stays the same forever...sadly, with US either withdrawing, or weakening internationally. Trust in and benefits from relationship with China, Pakistan will soon be able to do trade with any "China-approved" country in the region without being too worried or afraid.

我同意。这一决定的很大程度上是基于巴基斯坦的战略利益。但是，时代会改变的，因为没有什么是永远不变的... 可悲的是，随着美国要么退出，要么削弱国际事务。信任中国并从中国的关系中受益，巴基斯坦很快就能够与该地区任何一个“中国认可的”国家进行贸易，而不会太担心或害怕。

Flash_Ninja
Being China-approved isn't the problem. For instance Saudi Arabia, UAE, Turkey, Malaysia, are all important partners of Pakistan that must become a priority for trade yet they arent exactly in the Chinese camp.
The issue is primarily that Western business have more connections to Pakistan, and have made the necessary investments to facilitate that trade; and I dont see their trade going away any time soon. That means any country under sanctions from the west will always remain a no go zone for Pakistani trade.

得到中国的认可并不是问题。例如，沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、土耳其、马来西亚都是巴基斯坦的重要合作伙伴，它们必须成为优先贸易对象，但它们并不完全属于中国阵营。
问题主要在于西方企业与巴基斯坦有更多的联系，并且已经为促进这一贸易作出了必要的投资；我认为他们的贸易不会很快消失。这意味着任何受到西方制裁的国家，将永远是巴基斯坦贸易的禁区。

Daniel808
I wonder, will Iran soon inducted 4.5th Gen J-10C Fighter as part of the deal?
Their Airforce really need an upgrade

我想知道，伊朗是否会很快把第4.5代歼-10C战斗机作为协议的一部分？
他们的空军确实需要升级。

925boy
DOLLA FINISHED
EU told US this year that it wont fight China for US and it will make its own one-on-one deal with China.

美元结束了。
欧盟今年告诉美国，它不会为了美国而与中国对抗，它会与中国达成自己的一对一协议。

tower9
India is a US pawn and doesn't deliver on anything and has far less capabilities. Literally why would Iran choose India over China?
If China successfully pushes the Digital Yuan as the currency de franca of the Eurasian-Africa axis, dollar dominance will be significantly diminished and the US won't be able to live on credit like how most middle class Americans already do. American culture has no fiscal responsibility.

印度只是美国的一枚棋子，不会兑现任何承诺，能力也远远不够。伊朗为什么要选择印度而不是中国？
如果中国成功地推动数字人民币成为欧亚-非洲轴心的通用货币，美元的主导地位将大大削弱，美国就不能像大多数美国中产阶级那样，靠信贷生活了。美国文化没有财政责任。

Daniel808
Agree with you in this matter

在这件事上我同意你的看法。

The BrOkEn HeArT
Iran is neutral when it comes to China and India.

在中国和印度问题上，伊朗是中立的。

Daniel808
UAE keen to support Arab-Chinese cooperation: Sheikh Abdullah

阿联酋总统谢赫·阿卜杜拉宣布：阿联酋热切支持阿拉伯-中国的合作。

John Fallon
Its bad for the U.S. and bad for India. As for the U.S., is ISRAEL worth it? Israel holds no loyalty for this country. US problems with Iran would be much better served without this bizzare tail wags dog relationship .

这对美国和印度都不利。至于美国，以色列值得吗？以色列对美国毫无忠诚可言。美国与伊朗之间的问题，如果没有这种古怪的摇尾巴狗的关系，能更好的解决。

Noel Leong
The so called 25-year agreement is basically a memorandum of understanding between 2 close allies to cement a closer working relationships. It will not be one agreement but multiple agreements that will cover a wide range of areas that are subject to further negotiations.
For the two signatories to the agreement, it’s a logical steps to enhance a relationship that started since the 1990s. For years, the oil resources of Iran has player an important part in the strategic planning on the Middle East by China. This agreement would meet China’s strategic plan on the Persian Gulf and Middle East. Looking forward to the spill over business opportunities from this deal to countries from the South East Asian region.

这份所谓的25年协议基本上是两个亲密盟友之间的谅解备忘录，以巩固更紧密的工作关系。这不会是一项协定，而是多项协定，涵盖需要进一步谈判的广泛领域。
对于该协议的两个签署方来说，加强两国自上世纪90年代开始的关系是合乎逻辑的步骤。多年来，伊朗石油资源在中国中东战略规划中发挥着重要作用。这项协议将符合中国在波斯湾和中东的战略计划。期待着这项协议能够为东南亚地区的国家带来更多的商机。

Alan Parsi
There is no clear news in this agreement. But it can easily be deduced that China needs the cheap energy source from Iran to become the next world superpower, and Iran needs money to run its government and some help in its security (much like the US taking advantage of Saudi Arabia for the past 50 years in exchange with securing their regime). They are teaming up against the US. I think Trump drove them into this deal. He constantly pestering China and placing crushing economic sanction on Iran, and threatening their national security of these two countries. This left them no choice but to become partner to protect their interests and security. This agreement seems to have made Trump and Pompeo very nervous and annoyed to a point that they are hitting China with some Sanctions and other disturbance in Hong Kong and India.

这份协议没有明确的消息。但很容易推断出，中国需要伊朗提供廉价能源，才能成为下一个世界超级大国，而伊朗需要资金来管理政府，并在安全方面得到一些帮助(这很像美国过去50年利用沙特阿拉伯来换取其政权的安全)。他们正在联合起来对付美国。我认为是特朗普促使他们达成这项协议的。他不断纠缠中国，对伊朗实施压倒性的经济制裁，威胁两国的国家安全。这让他们别无选择，只能成为合作伙伴，以保护他们的利益和安全。这项协议似乎让特朗普和蓬佩奥感到非常紧张和恼火，以至于他们正在用一些制裁措施以及其他在香港和印度发生的骚乱来打击中国。

Will Wagner
What would one expect ? As long as the US goes around the world bullying and alienating other countries, why would it be a surprise for other countries to collaborate with each other ?
The US regularly goes around doing similar things viz Five Eyes, the Quad etc. So again, why not others ?

人们期待什么呢？只要美国在世界各地欺凌和疏远其他国家，其他国家就相互合作，这有什么好惊讶的呢？
美国经常做类似的事情，比如五眼联盟，四国集团等等。那么，为什么其他国家不能这样做呢？

powastick
India back stabbed Iran when Iran needed them. India and EU would buckled from US pressure while China won't.

当伊朗需要他们的时候，印度在背后捅了伊朗一刀。印度和欧盟会屈服于美国的压力，但中国不会。