[2020-08-26]一美国研究报告称印度能在边境冲突战胜中国

Joe1351
EurAsian Times gets you a comprehensive analysis from Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs which make a comparison between Indian and Chinese troops.
The Indian Army divides its ground and air strike forces facing China into Northern, Central and Eastern Commands. The Air Force is organized into Western, Central and Eastern Air Commands. The total available Army strike forces near China’s border areas are assessed to be around 225,000 personnel according to BCSIA reports. This incorporates the roughly 3,000 personnel attached to a T-72 tank brigade stationed in Ladakh and the estimated 1,000 personnel attached to a Brahmos cruise missile regiment in Arunachal Pradesh. For the Army, this total near China’s border areas is divided into about 34,000 troops in the Northern Command; 15,500 troops in the Central Command; and 175,500 troops in the Eastern Command.
A full-scale or limited war between India and China, despite several rounds of intense negotiations, cannot be ruled out yet. Experts have consistently compared the Indian Army against the Chinese PLA troops.

《EurAsianTimes》将为您带来来自贝尔弗科学与国际事务中心(BCSIA)的全面分析，对印度与中国军队进行比较。
印度陆军把面对中国的地面和空中打击部队，分为北部、中部和东部的三个指挥部。空军分为西部、中部和东部的三个空军指挥部。根据 BCSIA 的报告，在中国边境地区印度可动用的陆军打击部队总数估计约为22.5万人。这包括驻扎在拉达克的T-72坦克旅的大约3000名人员和驻扎在阿鲁纳恰尔邦的布拉莫斯巡航导弹团的大约1000名人员。在军队方面，这个靠近中国边境地区的总兵力分为北方军约3.4万人，中央军约1.55万人，东方军约17.55万人。
尽管进行了几轮紧张的谈判，但目前还不能排除印中之间爆发全面或有限战争的可能性。专家们一直在比较印度军队和中国人民解放军。

In comparison, the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs (BCSIA) estimates a total of 200,00-230,000 Chinese ground forces are under the Western Theater Command, and Tibet and Xinjiang Military Districts.
However, this apparent numerical near-equivalence with that of Indian regional ground forces is misleading. Even in a war with India, a significant proportion of these forces will be unavailable, reserved either protecting the Russian border or for countering rebellion, says the report.
The majority of the PLA troops are located far away from the Indian border, posing a striking contrast with the majority of forward-deployed Indian forces with a single China defence mission.

相比之下，贝尔弗科学与国际事务中心(BCSIA)估计，西部战区、西藏和新疆军区共有20万至23万中国地面部队。
然而，这种表面上与印度区域地面部队近似的数值是有误导性的。报告称，即使在与印度的战争中，这些军队中也有相当一部分将无法使用，要么用于保护俄罗斯边境，要么用于打击叛乱。
中国人民解放军的大部分部队都远离印度边境，这与大部分部署在前沿的印度部队只执行一项防御中国任务形成了鲜明对比。

The new joint Western Theater Command of China is estimated to hold around 90,000-120,000 troops, principally divided into the 76th and 77th Group Armies. Because of ongoing unrest in Tibet and Xinjiang, the Western Theater Command’s ground operational authority does not extend to these regions.

新成立的中国西部战区联合指挥部，预计兵力约9万至12万人，主要分为第七十六集团军和第七十七集团军。由于西藏和新疆的持续动乱，西部战区指挥部的地面行动权力并没有延伸到这些地区。

Instead, a special PLA Army-directed Military District (MD) has been created for each of these regions. In Tibet, the region closest to Indian border areas, the PLA presence is judged to number just 40,000 troops. The highest concentration of PLA forces are located in the Xinjiang region, totalling around 70,000. In the event of a major standoff or conflict with India, it would have to rely upon mobilization primarily from Xinjiang and secondarily from the Western Theater Command forces deeper in China’s interior. By contrast, Indian forces are already in position.

取而代之的是，每个地区都建立了一个由解放军指挥的特殊军区(MD)。在西藏这个最靠近印度边境地区的地区，据估计中国人民解放军只有4万人。中国人民解放军最集中的部队位于新疆地区，总兵力约为7万人。如果与印度发生重大对峙或冲突，它将不得不主要依靠从新疆调动，其次是从中国内陆更深处的西部战区指挥部调动。相比之下，印度军队已经就位。

Indian Air Force vs People’s Liberation Army Air Force
The research by the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs also compares the IAF and the PLAAF. Aerial combat is likely to decide the fate in case of a potential war between India and China since much of the battlefront is located high in the Himalayas, an area with limited ground accessibility.

印度空军 vs 中国人民解放军空军
BCSIA也比较了印度空军和中国人民解放军空军。如果印度和中国之间爆发潜在的战争，空战很可能决定命运，因为大部分前线位于喜马拉雅山脉的高处，这是一个地面交通有限的地区。

IAF has an estimated 270 fighters and 68 ground attack aircraft across its three China-facing commands. It is also expanding its network of Advanced Landing Grounds (ALGs), which constitute small air bases in forward locations to provide staging grounds and logistics hubs for aircraft strike missions.

据估计，印度空军有270架战斗机和68架地面攻击机横跨三个面向中国的指挥部。它还在扩大其先进着陆场网络，该网络由位于前沿地点的小型空军基地组成，为空袭任务提供集结地和后勤中心。

In the Western Air Command, the IAF possesses around 75 fighters and 34 ground attack aircraft, besides 5 ALGs close to Chinese Tibetan areas. The Central Air Command features around 94 fighters, 34 ground attack aircraft, and one ALG.
The Eastern Air Command hosts around 101 fighters and 9 ALGs. Most importantly, the Indian Army and the IAF are stationed very close to China’s border, thus shortening their mobilization time and limiting the prospects of a successful Chinese cross-border advance.

在西部空军指挥部，印度空军拥有约75架战斗机和34架地面攻击机，此外还有5个前沿机场靠近藏区。中央空军指挥部拥有约94架战斗机，34架地面攻击机和1个前沿机场。
东部空军指挥部拥有大约101架战斗机和9个前沿机场。最重要的是，印度军队和印度空军驻扎在非常靠近中国边境的地方，从而缩短了他们的动员时间，限制了中国成功跨境进攻的设想。

The Chinese PLAAF, on the other hand, suffers from a numerical disparity to the IAF in the border region. Unlike the tripartite organizational division of Chinese ground forces facing India, the Western Theater Command has assumed control of all regional strike aircraft. In total, this amounts to around 157 fighters and a varied drone armoury.
This includes an estimated 20 GJ-1/WD-1K precision strike UAVs, 12 WD-1 ground attack and reconnaissance UAVs, 12 WD-1 precision strike UAVs, and 8 EA-03 reconnaissance and electronic warfare UAVs.
A proportion of these are reserved for Russia-centric missions. By comparison, as noted earlier, the Indian Eastern Air Command can field around 101 fighters against China alone. China also uses eight airbases and airfields relevant to India strike missions, although a majority are civilian airports that can be commandeered in wartime.

另一方面，中国人民解放军空军与印度空军在边境地区存在数量上的差异。与面对印度的中国地面部队的三方组织分工不同，西部战区指挥部已经承担了对所有区域攻击机的控制权。总的来说，这相当于大约有157架战斗机和各种各样的无人机军械库。
这包括估计20架 GJ-1/WD-1K 精确打击无人机，12架WD-1地面攻击和侦察无人机，12架WD-1精确打击无人机，以及8架 EA-03侦察和电子战无人机。
其中一部分是以俄罗斯为中心的任务预留的。相比之下，正如前面所提到的，印度东部空军仅针对中国就能派出101架战斗机。中国还使用了8个与印度打击任务相关的空军基地和机场，尽管其中大部分是可在战时征用的民用机场。

Other comparative weaknesses permeate the PLAAF’s posture against India. On a strict comparison of available 4th generation fighters, authoritative assessments hold that China’s J-10 fighter is technically comparable to India’s Mirage-2000 and that the Indian Su-30MKI is superior to all theatre Chinese fighters, including the additional J-11 and Su-27 models.
China hosts a total of around 101 4th-generation fighters in the theatre, of which a proportion must be retained for Russian defence, while India has around 122 of its comparable models, solely directed at China.

中国空军对印度的态势中还渗透着其他相对的弱点。根据对现有第四代战斗机的严格比较，权威评估认为，中国的歼-10战斗机在技术上与印度的幻影-2000相当，但印度的苏-30MKI战斗机优于战场上所有的中国战斗机，包括附加的歼-11和苏-27型号。
中国战区总共拥有约101架第四代战斗机，其中一部分必须用于俄罗斯的防御用途，而印度则拥有约122架类似的战斗机，仅用于针对中国。

The high altitude of Chinese air bases in Tibet and Xinjiang, plus the generally difficult geographic and weather conditions of the region, means that Chinese fighters are limited to carrying around half their design payload and fuel. In-flight refuelling would be required for PLAAF forces to maximize their strike capacity.
China had only inducted 15 such tanker aircraft nationally as of 2017, meaning only a handful of its forces will benefit from this solution. Against these underpowered fighters, IAF forces will launch from bases and airfields unaffected by these geographic conditions, with maximum payload and fuel capabilities.

中国在西藏和新疆的空军基地海拔较高，加上该地区普遍恶劣的地理和气候条件，意味着中国战斗机只能携带一半的设计有效载荷和燃料。中国空军部队需要进行空中加油，以最大限度地发挥其打击能力。
截至2017年，中国在全国内只引进了15架这样的加油机，这意味着只有少数中国军队能从这一解决方案中受益。针对这些动力不足的战斗机，印度空军部队将从不受这些地理条件影响的基地和机场起飞，具有最大的有效载荷和燃料能力。

The most significant PLAAF forward air bases and airfields near Indian border areas are located at Hotan, Lhasa/Gonggar, Ngari-Gunsa, and Xigaze and are vulnerable to a dedicated Indian offensive.
Ngari-Gunsa and Xigaze reportedly have no hardened shelters or blast pens for their aircraft, which sit in the open. Lhasa/Gonggar has recently developed hardened shelters able to protect up to 36 aircraft, while Hotan reportedly hosts “two aircraft shelters” of unknown capacity.

中国空军在印度边境地区附近最重要的前线空军基地和机场位于和田、拉萨/贡嘎、噶尔-贡萨和日喀则，很容易受到印度专门的攻击。
据报道，噶尔-贡萨和日喀则没有为他们的飞机设置加固的掩体或防爆棚，这些飞机都是露天的。拉萨/贡嘎最近开发了经过加固的掩体，能够保护多达36架飞机，和田拥有容量不明的“两个飞机掩体”。

An Indian early initiative to incapacitate these four bases—and achieve air superiority over them—would compel China to rely more upon aircraft from its rear-area bases, exacerbating its limited fuel and payload problems.
Moreover, China lacks the redundancy and related force survivability compared to India in their comparative numbers of regional airbases. In sum, India has a stronger regional air position, with “a large number of airfields in the east and west, so even if some airfields are down, operations can continue from other locations.

如果印度早期采取行动，削弱这四个基地的作战能力，并取得空中优势，将迫使中国更多地依赖后方基地的飞机，从而加剧其有限的燃料和有效载荷问题。
此外，与印度的地区空军基地数量相比，中国缺乏冗余和相关部队的生存能力。总之，印度拥有更强大的区域空军阵地“在东部和西部有大量的机场，所以即使一些机场出现故障，其他机场的行动仍然可以继续。”

PLAAF training and experience shortcomings that are not shared by the IAF amplify China’s air disadvantage. Recent PLAAF exercises with unscri1pted scenarios have found that pilots are excessively reliant upon ground control for tactical direction.
In unanticipated combat scenarios, this dependence on explicit control tower guidance becomes extreme, while “ground commands” are simultaneously often unable “to keep up with the complex and changeable air situation. This suggests that PLAAF combat proficiency may be significantly weaker than often estimated.

中国空军的训练和经验不足，而印度空军并没有这些劣势，这加剧了中国在空中的劣势。在中国空军最近的演习发现，飞行员在战术指挥上过于依赖地面控制。
在意料不到的战斗场景中，这种对明确控制塔制导的依赖将变得极端，而“地面指挥”往往同时无法“跟上复杂多变的空中形势”。这表明中国空军的战斗能力可能比通常估计的要弱得多。
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Figaro
The guy who wrote this article is not even of a US military or even a defense background lol ... he relies mostly on outdated open source assumptions and Indian news articles.

写这篇文章的人甚至不是美国军方的人，甚至没有国防背景，哈哈... 他主要依靠过时的公开资料假设和印度新闻文章。

khail007
India could outgun China and even USA ... no doubt about it

印度在军事上可以超过中国甚至美国... 这是毫无疑问的

Figaro
I saw this article a month ago and the author who wrote the analysis was of a foreign policy background (i.e. Harvard Kennedy School). His analysis relied mostly on outdated internet sources. A heavy weight study would be if it was conducted by something like RAND.

我一个月前看过这篇文章，写这篇分析的作者有外交政策背景(即哈佛肯尼迪政治学院)。他的分析主要依靠过时的互联网资源。如果这项研究是由兰德这样的公司来做，那么会是一项重量级的研究。

bolo
America is really pushing India to fight China lol

美国真的在推动印度对抗中国 哈哈

Fawadqasim1
You got the point

你抓住重点了

Figaro
Trust me the US would not care at all if India was wiped out by China one way or the other ... to the US, India is just another bullet in the foreign policy arsenal. They have no special relation to us one way or the other unlike Great Britain or Israel or Japan. The US would be more than happy if China decided to conquer India and had to fight a massive guerilla war on a scale magnitudes higher than Vietnam or Afghanistan. It does not matter if the Indians suffer tens of millions of casualties ... as long as China is weakened with the war, the US stands to benefit. If anything, after the Indians are wiped out by joint Chinese-Pakistani forces, we will have military bases in India lol. The Chinese may scoff at the Indians but not the Americans.

相信我，美国根本不会在乎印度是否会以某种方式被中国消灭... 对美国来说，印度只是外交政策武器库中的又一颗子弹。与英国、以色列或日本不同，他们与我们没有任何特殊关系。如果中国决定征服印度，并且不得不打一场规模超过越南或阿富汗的大规模游击战，美国会非常高兴的。就算印度遭受了数千万人的伤亡，这也无关紧要... 只要中国被战争所削弱，美国就会从中受益。如果说有什么区别的话，那就是在印度被中巴联合部队消灭之后，我们将在印度建立军事基地哈哈。中国人可能会嘲笑印度人，但美国人不会的。

Yeah! The same way IAF outgunned PAF only to lose two of its own fighters in the process.

IceCold
是啊！同样的道理，印度空军超过巴基斯坦空军，只是在过程中失去了两架自己的战斗机。

SQ8
Similar NRI backed news reports predicted a superior trained and equipped IAF that would walk over the PAF; we all know what went down then.
Moreover, the supposed analysis they quote has broader conclusions.

类似的国外印度裔支持的新闻报道预测，一支训练有素、装备精良的印度空军会超过巴基斯坦空军，然而我们都知道当时发生了什么。
此外，他们引用的所谓分析有更广泛的结论。

Figaro
India could outgun its own airforce better than China or the US. Shooting down their own helicopter was only the tip of the iceburg lol

印度的空军部队可以比中国或美国更强大。他们击落自己的直升机只是冰山一角，哈哈

Beast
India has reduced to only writing self delusion article to confront China.
What a pathetic state!

印度已经沦落到只写自欺欺人的文章来对抗中国。
多么可悲的国家！

yesboss
The research is solely based on the bombastic abilities of the IAF in dodging BVR missiles.

这项研究完全是基于印度空军在躲避超视距导弹方面的夸张能力。

crankthatskunk
Vow. So India won on paper from Chinese, at least.
India a paper tiger.

哇哦。所以，印度至少在纸面上能战胜中国。
印度名副其实纸老虎。

PAKISTANFOREVER
If you can't win in reality, win on paper instead............

如果你不能在现实中取胜，那就在纸上取胜...

PAKISTANFOREVER
In order to outgun China, india needs to be at the VERY LEAST as powerful as america. So this article is insinuating that india is even more powerful than america...........
..............indian media and journalism at it's best..............

为了战胜中国，印度需要至少和美国一样强大。所以这篇文章暗示印度比美国更强大...
...印度媒体和新闻业最牛逼的...

drumstick
Excellent article, at least not a propaganda from global times....
well folks here are saying America wants India to fight china, but never say china wants pakistan to fight India.... what a laughable story, its like we never fought a war but china is very well fighting army.....
the problem with china is they want to show a daring face, but dont want to go ahead a step... because if they do and lost like 1967 then it will be game over for china.
and they have to leave country and never come back....
china is a paper tiger, in true sense. not fought a war in 30 years but suddenly they become the best in the world.... how?

优秀的文章，至少不是来自环球时报的宣传。
这里的人们说美国希望印度和中国打，但是从来没有说过中国希望巴基斯坦和印度打.. 真是个可笑的故事，好像我们从来没有打过仗，但是中国的军队打得很好..
中国的问题是，他们想要表现出一副勇敢的面孔，但又不想迈出第一步... 因为如果他们这样做，并且像1967年那样输了，那么对于中国来说，游戏就结束了。
他们必须离开这个国家，再也不能回来了...
中国就是纸老虎。30年来没有打过仗，但突然间他们成了世界上最强大的... 怎么可能？

IblinI
One of the biggest Indian boaster on pdf with your mates captian kar,dark1, here is your major signing paper for transferring bodies of IA and equipment, show me something instead of wiki editing.
PS: Wonder why they have tied a strip of white fabricate on their arm.

在这论坛里，你是吹印度最厉害的一个，和你的伙伴“captian kar”和“dark1”一起，这是你们的主要签名文件，用来转移 印度士兵的尸体和装备，给我看一些硬资料，而不是维基编辑里的。
补充：想知道为什么他们手臂上绑了一条白色布条吗？