[2020-08-10]我们能借助中国的复苏，来度过90年来最严重的经济衰退吗？

（图文信息：海浪从左到右依次是，新冠疫情，经济衰退，气候变化）
Fionn Wright
Bad news first. This is worse than 2008, "much worse" according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which called it "A Crisis Like No Other, An Uncertain Recovery" in the World Economic Outlook Update released in June 2020. This is not just a global recession like in 2008, but more like the Great Depression that happened in 1930, explains Ray Dalio, arguably the world's most successful investor. His comments are echoed by the IMF's projections for global growth, which shows that for the first time since the Great Depression advanced economies, emerging markets and developing economies are all in recession. The vast majority of countries' economies will shrink in 2020 with a global projection of -4.9%, and advanced economies are projected at -8%. Income per capita is expected to shrink in over 170 countries.

先说坏消息。根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)的说法，这比2008年更糟糕。IMF在2020年6月发布的《世界经济展望更新》中称之为“一场前所未有的危机，一场不确定的复苏”。世界上最成功的投资者雷•戴利奥解释道，这不仅仅是2008年那样的全球经济衰退，更像是1930年发生的大萧条。他的言论与IMF对全球经济增长预测相呼应。该预测显示，自大萧条以来，发达经济体、新兴市场和发展中经济体首次都陷入衰退。到2020年，绝大多数国家的经济都将萎缩，全球预测为 -4.9% ，发达经济体预计为 -8% 。超过170个国家的人均收入预计会下降。图1

Now for some good news. China is in many ways is already getting back on track after the economy shrinking by 6.8% in the first quarter compared to same period last year. While there is no doubt it will take a serious hit in 2020, from 6.1% last year to a projected 1.0% this year, that would make it only country on the list to still have positive growth in 2020. If IMF projections turn out to be accurate for 2021, China will have the strongest economy in the world in at 8.2%. In the shorter term (6-12 months), we are all likely to be challenged, in the longer term (1-3 years) things can be better than they ever have been, for some.

再来说好消息。中国经济在第一季度与去年同期相比萎缩了6.8% ，从很多方面来说，中国已经回到了正轨。毫无疑问，2020年中国经济将受到严重打击，从去年的6.1%增长到今年预计的1.0%增长，这将使中国成为2020年唯一一个仍然保持正增长的国家。如果IMF对2021年的预测是准确的，中国届时会以8.2% 的增长率成为世界上最强劲的经济体。从短期来看(6-12个月)，我们都可能面临挑战，但从长期来看(1-3年)，对某些人来说，事情可能比以往任何时候都要好。图2

My basic idea of the article is that while China's economy will undoubtedly be hit hard at the beginning of this year, with some industries hit harder than others, China has the strongest macro-economic mechanisms in the world for preventing a severe economic slowdown. Now China has already returned to business and has contained the virus. The outbreak is but a small blip on China's long-term development radar, and one that could actually accelerate China on its path towards becoming a fully developed nation by 2050 -- China 2.0.
Those individuals, companies and countries that hope to fare well over the next few years would be wise to leverage China's comeback.

我的基本思路是，尽管中国经济在今年年初无疑将遭受重创，一些行业受到的打击比其它行业更为严重，但中国拥有全球最强大的宏观经济机制，可以防止经济出现严重放缓。现在，中国已经恢复了商业活动，并控制住了病毒。这次疫情的爆发对于中国的长期发展雷达来说只是一个小小的波动，它实际上可能会加速中国在2050年前成为一个完全发达国家的道路——中国2.0。
那些希望在未来几年取得好成绩的个人、企业和国家，将会明智地借助中国的复苏。

The world has changed, the economy has changed, politics have changed, businesses have changed, so if we stay the same, many of the ways we have done things are likely to become irrelevant soon if they aren't already, and that’s a good thing, because it will force us to change too. Now is the time to reinvent yourself and your business, to question everything, to go back to base principles, to identify and operate by your core values. The world will not be stable any time soon, but you can be.

世界变了，经济变了，政治变了，商业也变了，所以如果我们保持不变，我们做事的许多方式很可能很快就会变得无关紧要，如果还没有改变的话，这是一件好事，因为这会迫使我们也跟着改变。现在是时候重塑你自己和你的事业，质疑一切，回归基本原则，确定并按照你的核心价值观运作。世界短期内不会稳定，但你可以。

Strategy 1 - Build Bridges to China (by helping Chinese companies expand)
Not only has China come back online, but many of its tech giants have actually been fuelled by the Coronavirus as people have gotten more used to using online services during lockdown. Alibaba, whose B2C E-commerce Platform Taobao was essentially born out of the 2003 SARS epidemic, hasn't done as well as tech companies that are more digitalized like Tencent (for gaming and WeChat) or Bytedance (Douyin & TikTok short video apps) during COVID, but regardless has found ways to survive. Sales grew 22% in the three months to 31 March, despite virus-related restrictions, and sales in the firm's cloud computing division jumped 58%.

战略1 - 搭建通往中国的桥梁(通过帮助中国企业扩张)
中国不仅恢复了网络服务，而且由于人们已经越来越习惯在封锁期间使用网络服务，许多科技巨头实际上也受到了这次新冠疫情的影响。阿里巴巴旗下的B2C电子商务平台淘宝，基本上是诞生于2003年的非典疫情，但在新冠疫情期间，它的表现还不如那些数字化程度更高的科技公司，比如腾讯(针对游戏和微信)或者字节跳动(抖音和TikTok短视频应用)，但是它们都找到了生存的方法。在截至3月31日的三个月里，尽管受到与疫情相关的限制，该公司的销售额还是增长了22%，其中云计算部门的销售额增长了58%。

The Alibaba e-commerce ecosystem in China is rivalled by no other, and as China builds out its Belt and Road Initiative connecting Europe and Asia as well as Africa together, Alibaba will likely be playing a significant role in the flow of goods. Those interested in leveraging the Chinese E-commerce boom as it goes global can get a head start by finding ways to integrate into the post-COVID Chinese E-commerce Ecosystem. For an example of a company that has created it's own niche in the highly competitive Chinese E-commerce Market -- meet Baopals.

中国阿里巴巴的电子商务生态系统是无人能及的，随着中国建立起连接欧洲、亚洲以及非洲的一带一路，阿里巴巴可能会在商品流动中扮演重要角色。那些有兴趣在中国电子商务全球化的时候，借助其繁荣的人，可以找到融入后疫情时代中国电子商务生态系统的方法，抢占先机。举个例子，一家公司在竞争激烈的中国电子商务市场上创造了商机——看看Baopals吧。

Strategy 2 - Tap into the Chinese Market (from anywhere in the world)
While the trade war had been impacting China in 2019, according to McKinsey, "although traditional drivers of China’s economy—investment, exports, and manufacturing—are struggling, the country’s consumers remain confident....Consumers in China are proving to be remarkably resilient and remain a powerful, transformative force not just in China but also across the globe." McKinsey is predicting that China's future growth, which will remain strong, and instead of growth driven by investment will rather be driven by consumption. China's urbanization is driving the expansion of China's economy, with 850 million already living in cities in 2020, and 51% of which will have enough buying power to be considered 'mainstream consumers.' 14 of China's cities are projected to be in the world’s top 25 cities in terms of absolute GDP growth over the next decade.

战略2 - 开拓中国市场(来自世界各地)
麦肯锡表示，尽管贸易战在2019年影响了中国“尽管中国经济的传统驱动力——投资、出口和制造业正举步维艰，但中国的消费者依然充满信心... 事实证明，中国消费者的适应力非常强，不仅在中国，而且在全球仍然是一股强大的变革力量。”麦肯锡预测，中国未来的经济增长将保持强劲，不是由投资驱动的增长，而是由消费驱动的。中国的城市化正在推动中国经济的扩张。到2020年，中国已经有8.5亿人居住在城市，其中51%的人拥有足够的购买力，可以被认为是“主流消费者”。预计未来十年，按照绝对GDP增长率计算，中国有14个城市将跻身世界前25名。

For those who have already entered the China market, refocusing efforts to make sure their Chinese audience is well served as China is getting back to business would be wise right now, and for those who haven't entered yet this is the perfect time to get a foot in the door before the Chinese economy speeds past the rest of the world, with entry getting more expensive and the Chinese consumer getting even more sophisticated, creating ever more barriers to entry.

对于那些已经进入中国市场的人来说，在中国恢复商业活动之际，重新调整精力，确保中国的客户得到良好的服务，是明智之举。对于那些尚未进入中国市场的人来说，这是在中国经济加速超越世界其他地区之前，迈出一步的最佳时机，因为随着进入市场的成本越来越高，中国消费者变得越来越老练，创造了越来越多参与的壁垒。

The good news here is that there are now more ways to access and interact with Chinese consumers than ever before. While it's foolhardy to try and tap into the Chinese market without a team or partner on the ground in China, those can now be more easily developed through online means as Chinese people adjust to being more willing to conduct business online without face-to-face meetings due to necessities during the lockdown. The more digitized you can make whatever you do, the easier it will be, but that doesn't mean it will easy. Competition is as fierce as ever and it will likely require taking your entire business model to the next level, but that also means that there are more people in China looking for opportunities to work for and with you.

好消息是，现在有比以往任何时候更多的途径来接触和与中国消费者互动。虽然在中国没有团队或合作伙伴的情况下，尝试进入中国市场是有勇无谋的，但是随着中国人适应了在封锁期间更愿意在网上进行商业活动，通过网络方式开发变得更加容易。无论你做什么，数字化程度越高，就越容易，但这并不意味着很容易。在中国，竞争一如既往地激烈，这可能需要将你的整个商业模式提升到一个新的水平，但这也意味着中国有更多的人在寻找和你合作一起工作的机会。

Strategy 3 - Leverage Chinese Platforms that are Growing (in a lean way)
It's hard for anyone to keep track of all the platforms popping up in the Chinese ecosystem, and COVID has resulted in a whole new wave of innovation already. One tech unicorn which is the talk of the decade is Bytedance, which is now the highest valued startup in the world. ByteDance's mobile apps raked in $157 million from January to March, 90% of which came from China. It was a record quarter for ByteDance, representing a 423% increase compared to the same period last year, and up 50% compared to the previous quarter.

战略3 - 利用正在增长的中国平台(以一种精益的方式)
任何人都很难了解中国生态系统中出现的所有平台，而且新冠疫情已经掀起了一股全新的创新浪潮。字节跳动是十年来最受关注的科技独角兽公司之一，它现在是世界上估值最高的初创公司。字节跳动的移动应用程序从一月到三月赚了1.57亿美元，其中90%来自中国。这是字节跳动的一个创纪录的季度，比去年同期增长了423% ，比上一个季度增长了50%。

Bytedance set a goal to almost double its global headcount to 100,000 by the end of 2020, the largest number of jobs in the area of gaming and many in e-commerce as Bytedance faces up to its rivals in those areas -- Tencent and Alibaba. But it's not just Chinese Tech companies that are up against Bytedance, Instagram and YouTube influencers are hopping on the Bytedance bandwagon in droves, realizing that it's not just a fun app for pre-teens but an e-commerce and gaming integrated behemoth that can not only explode their fanbase overnight but also give them a platform to make serious cash.

字节跳动设定的目标是，到2020年底，其全球员工总数将增加近一倍，达到10万人。在面对腾讯和阿里巴巴在游戏和电子商务领域的竞争对手时，字节跳动将创造这些领域最多的就业岗位。但是，和字节跳动抗衡的不仅仅是中国的科技公司，Instagram 和 YouTube等有影响力的公司也纷纷加入字节跳动的行列，意识到它不仅仅是一个面向青少年的有趣应用，而且是一个电子商务和游戏集成的庞然大物，不仅可以在一夜之间扩大他们的粉丝群，而且还能为他们提供一个巨大盈利的平台。

Strategy 4 - Focus on What Works in China (because a lot of things don't)
As China becomes more nationalistic, we've seen from recent mistakes of the NBA, Dior and Dolce & Gabbana that anyone who wants to do business in or with the country has to be more careful than ever of how they communicate and interact with the Chinese. While this was always advisable, it is now non-negotiable. The Chinese people are watching the mayhem ensue in the rest of the world right now and are proud of China's ability to contain the virus and maintain internal stability. This feeds a justifiable nationalistic sentiment that shows the Chinese people their country is worthy of not just playing on, but in many ways leading on, the world stage.

战略4——关注在中国可行的事物（因为很多事物在中国不可行）
随着中国变得更加民族主义，我们从 NBA、迪奥和杜嘉班纳的错误中看到，任何想在中国做生意或与中国做生意的人，都必须比以往更加谨慎地与中国人交流和互动。虽然这一直是明智的做法，但现在没有商量余地。目前，中国人正在关注着世界其他地区接踵而来的混乱局面，并为中国控制疫情和维护国内稳定的能力感到自豪。这助长了一种合理的民族主义情绪，向中国人民表明了，他们的国家不仅可以参与世界舞台，而且在许多方面值得引领世界舞台。

From getting your website blocked, to getting annihilated by Chinese consumers on social media, you can't get away with being an ignorant foreigner anymore, or even one who doesn't put in effort to understand the Chinese culture and language. Learning to be humble in the face of the clear results that are being attained by the entire system in China is now a necessary prerequisite for being successful here. Humility, respect, acceptance, and understanding are all things you can control.

从你的网站被屏蔽，到在社交媒体上被中国消费者所唾弃，你不能再做一个无知的外国人了，甚至是一个不努力去理解中国文化和语言的人。面对中国整个系统正在取得的明显成果，学会谦虚是在这里取得成功的必要前提。谦逊、尊重、接受和理解都是你可以做到的。

You've got to come here and see it for yourself. Once you get here on the ground in China, you're going to see things that you just wouldnt understand from watching documentaries on TV or on Youtube, from reading magazines, from reading books, once you're on the ground, it's an entirely different experience. You'll see the scale, you'll see how many people are here, you'll see how fast stuff happens. It will just change your entire worldview.

你一定要亲自来看看。一旦你踏上中国的土地，你将会看到一些你从电视或油管上无法理解的东西，从杂志上，从阅读的书籍上，一旦你踏上了这片土地，那会是一种完全不同的体验。你会看到规模的大小，你会看到人口的多少，你会看到事情发展的速度。这会改变你的整个世界观。

Strategy 5 - Re-evaluate your China Presence (and be resilient)
What got you here won't get you there. Prepare yourself to change anything that needs to be changed. Pre-COVID China was already a rapidly evolving market that changed so fast it was hard to keep up. But now, even the most established businesses, supply chains and consumer behaviors have gone through a transformation during the COVID response. The new normal is anything but normal. For some businesses it is such a radical transformation they will not survive, at least in their current form.

战略5 - 重新评估你的中国业务(并且要有弹性)
没有什么是屡试不爽的方法。准备好改变任何需要改变的事情。前疫情时代，中国已经是一个快速发展的市场，变化如此之快，以至于很难跟上。但是现在，即使是最成熟的企业，供应链和消费者行为都在疫情的反应中经历了转变。新的常态不是常态。对于一些企业来说，这是一场非常激进的变革，它们将无法生存下去，至少以目前的形式是如此。

90% of Fortune 1000 companies had secondary suppliers in Wuhan, but many had little or no interaction with them. But this new normal is not just about COVID. Now with the trade war continuing on top of COVID, what was once a given is now no longer. All businesses need now be more aware of the acute need to be adaptable at a moment's notice. Those that are resilient enough to use this situation as an opportunity to update their China presence could potentially build a robust business model to catch China's growth wave over the next year.

财富1000强的企业90%在武汉都有二级供应商，但很多企业很少或根本没有与他们进行互动过。但是这种新的常态不仅仅是和疫情有关。现在，随着贸易战在疫情之上继续进行，曾经是必然的事情现在已经不再是了。现在，所有企业都需要更加清楚地意识到，在接到通知后立即做出调整的迫切需要。那些有足够弹性的企业，可以利用这个机会更新他们在中国的业务，有可能会建立一个强健的商业模式，来赶上明年中国的增长浪潮。

In one example Master Kong, a leading instant noodle producer, reviewed dynamics on a daily basis when the lockdown hit and reprioritized efforts. It anticipated hoarding and stock-outs, and it tilted its focus away from offline, large retail channels to O2O (online-to-offline), e-commerce, and smaller stores. By continuously tracking retail outlets’ re-opening plans it was able to adapt its supply chain and recovered by more than 50% just a few weeks after the outbreak, and was able to supply 60% of the stores that reopened during this period — three times as many as some competitors. Now they have a head start as the market gets back to business. This journey of tweaking is never-ending, and takes an enormous amount of resilience, the one quality Alex Duncan says he sees in those who have been able to make it in the China market.

有一个例子，领先的方便面生产商康师傅，在开始封锁的时候，每天回顾动态，并重新安排工作的优先顺序。它预见到了囤积和缺货的情况，并将重点从线下、大型零售渠道转向O2O(线上到线下)、电子商务和小型商店。通过持续跟踪零售店的重新开业计划，它能够调整供应链，并在疫情爆发后仅几周就恢复了50%以上的供应，而且能够供应在此期间重新开业的店铺的60% ，是某些竞争对手的三倍。现在，随着市场恢复正常运转，他们已经领先一步了。这种调整的过程永无止境，需要极大的弹性，亚历克斯 · 邓肯说：他在那些能够在中国市场上成功的人身上，看到了这一品质。

Strategy 6 - Educate Yourself on China (as it keeps changing)
Staying up to date with the evolving trends in China is my full-time passion, and I feel I'm only scratching the surface.While experience on the ground in China certainly matters, and the ability to understand Chinese means you can get info first hand, the specific niches in China are so wide that one can become a foremost expert on a specific vertical without having, or even needing to have, a great understanding of the wider Chinese context, whether that's politics, culture or history. The question is, what kind of expertise is valuable in your particular situation?

战略6 - 了解中国（因为中国一直在变化）
跟上中国不断变化的趋势，就是我的全部热情所在，我觉得我只是触及了表面。虽然在中国的实地经验当然很重要，掌握中文，意味着你可以获得第一手信息，但中国的专业领域非常之广，以至于一个人可以成为某个专业领域的一流专家，而不需要对更广泛的中国背景有深入的了解，无论是政治、文化还是历史。问题是，在你的特定情况下，什么样的专业知识才是有价值的？

The reality is that there is no such thing as a "China Expert," it's not possible to be an expert on all of China, which is why I'm usually suspicious of people who use the term to describe themselves. How ridiculous would it sound to call oneself an "America Expert," or worse, a "Europe Expert?" Now multiply that population a few times and you have the population of China. The problem is, when it comes to China, a vast, complex, rapidly evolving market, it's not always clear what specific type of expertise you need. So navigating the treacherous valley of China Experts who all promise they can deliver (first red flag, nobody can guarantee your success in China) can be confusing to say the least.

事实上，根本没有所谓的“中国通”，要成为一个“全中国通”是不可能的，这就是为什么我通常对那些用这个词来形容自己的人，持怀疑态度的原因。自称“美国通” ，或者更糟的是自称“欧洲通”有多可笑？现在把人口乘以几倍，你就知道中国的人口了。问题是，当涉及到中国这个庞大、复杂、快速发展的市场时，你并不总是清楚自己需要什么样的专业技能。所以，穿行在中国这个险峻的山谷的中国通们，都承诺他们能够成功时（第一个危险的信号，没有人能够保证你在中国能取得成功），至少可以说让人困惑。

Strategy 7 - Tap into the Chinese Tech Ecosystem (because its the future)
No matter what anyone thinks of China as a whole, there is no denying that the tech ecosystem in China is years ahead, and speeding up, in almost every vertical with a few exceptions such as semiconductors and AI research (and of course a few more, but also less and less). The response to COVID has confirmed this tech supremacy on multiple fronts (see my previous article entitled Pandemic Alert: What Can the World Learn From China's Coronavirus Containment? 8 Hi-Tech Strategies).

战略7 - 接近中国的科技生态系统(因为它是未来)
不管人们如何看待中国，不可否认的是，中国的科技生态系统在几乎每个垂直领域都在加速发展，只有半导体和人工智能研究等少数领域除外(当然还有一些领域，但也越来越少)。对疫情的反应，已经在多个方面证实了这种技术的优势（详见我之前的帖子《大流行警报：世界能从中国的新冠疫情遏制中学到什么？8点高科技策略）

Chinese tech is not just another option or a nice to have, similar to how Silicon Valley redefined the human activity over the last few decades, Chinese tech will redefine the globe in the next few. From Social Platforms (Tiktok, WeChat) to Fin-tech (Digital Yuan, Ant-financial) to E-commerce (Alibaba, JD) to Social E-commerce (Pinduoduo, Xiaohongshu) New Retail (Hema) to 5G (Huawei) to Smartphones (Xiaomi, Transsion) to Gaming (Tencent, Bytedance) to Drones (DJI) to Augmented Reality (Baidu, Live-streaming) to Robots (restaurant/hospital servers) to Construction (Belt & Road, Wuhan hospitals) to Electric vehicles (BYD, Geely) to Green Tech (solar panels, greening) to Smart Cities (Shenzhen, Xiongan) to AI implementation, the list of technologies where China is outpacing the rest of the world is getting longer by the day. To not be interacting in this market is to be behind the curve in preparing for the future. As I learn from Joseph Leveque learning about the Chinese digital ecosystem is a window into the systems of the future.

中国的科技不仅仅是另一个选择，也不仅仅是一个美好的东西，就像硅谷在过去几十年里重新定义人类活动一样，中国的科技将在未来几年里重新定义全球。从社交平台(抖音，微信)到金融科技(数字人民币，蚂蚁金融)到电子商务(阿里巴巴，京东)到社交电子商务(拼多多，小红书)到新零售(盒马鲜生)到5G(华为)到智能手机(小米，传音)到游戏(腾讯，字节跳动)到无人机(大疆)到增强现实(百度，流媒体直播)到机器人(餐厅/医院服务)到建设(一带一路，武汉医院)到电动汽车(比亚迪，吉利)到绿色科技(太阳能电池板，绿化)到智慧城市(深圳，雄安)再到人工智能的实施，中国超越世界其他国家的技术清单正在变得越来越长。不在这个市场上互动，就会在未来做准备的过程中落后。正如我从约瑟夫 · 勒维克那里学到的：了解中国的数字生态系统，是了解未来系统的一扇窗口。

Conclusion - Are we Watching or Making History Happen?
How long will the dollar remain the global reserve currency? Are its days numbered? As China rolls out the Digital Yuan, comes to the aid of countries around the world in these challenging times, and China forward despite having been hit with COVID, how will the greater world respond? Which of the economic powers on planet earth right now seem more stable? Which have the potential to lift the developing world (85% of the world's population) into developed world status?

结论 - 我们是在观望还是在创造历史？
美元作为全球储备货币的地位还能维持多久？它的日子屈指可数了吗？随着中国推出数字人民币，在这个充满挑战的时代向世界各国伸出援助之手，尽管受到了疫情的冲击，但中国仍在继续前进，更大的世界范围内将如何回应？现在地球上哪个经济大国看起来更稳定？哪些国家有潜力将发展中国家(占世界人口的85%)提升到发达国家的地位？

Can we leverage these challenges? Can we see this as an opportunity to make things better? Can we adopt more conscious business practices? Can we operate with more authenticity and integrity? Can we come together? Great tragedies can lead to great transformations.

我们能够借助这些挑战吗？我们能否把这看作是一个让事情变得更好的机会？我们能否采取更有意识的商业行为？我们能以更加真实和完整的方式运作吗？我们能走到一起吗？巨大的悲剧可以带来巨大的转变。

网友评论：
网友评论:
Attila Ladanyi
It's not waves. The recession was caused by COVID laws themselves and climate change is just a hoax that is also to be created by laws.

这不是海浪。经济衰退是由新冠疫情法律本身造成的，气候变化只是一个骗局，也是法律制造的。

Stephen
Very solid and inspiring. Yes, China economy is much more resilient than people expected, and the momentum will continue.
The risk however is remaining in between the US-China “issues”. Only hope the politicians are wise enough, not to further escalate the hostilities......

非常扎实和鼓舞人心。是的，中国经济比人们预期的要有弹性得多，而且这种势头将继续下去。
然而，风险仍然存在于美中“问题”之中。只希望政客们足够聪明，不要进一步升级敌对行动...

René Moerman
Great article again Fionn. Thank you for enabling me to share these insights.

又是一篇很棒的文章。谢谢你让我能够分享这些见解。

Marc van Rossem PhD, MBA
I concur with you, but with one caveat: I foresee some (more) economic/international relations clouds on the horizon, so I would aim for products/services that thrive during an economic troubling season... and look at rural China too.

我同意你的观点，但有一点需要注意：我预见到一些(或更多)经济/国际关系的阴云即将到来，因此我的目标是在经济困难时期蓬勃发展的产品和服务... 同时也关注中国的农村地区。

Vinnie Apicella
To your initial question, "Can we leverage China's comeback," I think there's no question we can. I will briefly share my own experience as a small business owner who was struggling like many others at the onset of COVID, my lesson learned: sometimes you have to let the business come to you, and not the other way around. By that I mean, I was so focused on what I wanted to do and my big goals for services we could provide, I ignored potential fringe opportunities that lay right in front of us. I'm speaking specifically of educational services, but in fact, it applies to anything. We've seen China shift on the fly during this pandemic, and now they're about to be FIFO, so to speak, and head toward positive economic results by year's end--yes, it may be miniscule, but it will be there.
This ship hasn't sailed, but it is moving quickly. Competition has been and will be fierce. However, what have here is a younger, eager generation of Chinese with an ambition and thirst for knowledge; those who are primed to help provide it, in whatever capacity, will stand to benefit--healthcare, medicine, infrastructure, to name a few. Information, innovation, and education will still figure prominently as China continues to advance.

对于你最初的问题，“我们能否借助中国的复苏”，我认为毫无疑问我们可以。我简要地分享我自己作为一个小企业主的经历，在新冠疫情开始的时候，我和其他人一样在挣扎，我学到的教训是：有时候你必须让生意来到你面前，而不是反过来。我的意思是，我太专注于我想做的事情和我能够提供的服务的主要目标，而忽略了摆在我们面前的潜在的边缘机会。我特别指的是教育服务，但实际上，它适用于任何事情。我们已经看到中国在这次疫情期间飞速的转变，现在他们即将成为先入先出者，可以这么说，中国在年底前正朝着积极的经济结果前进，是的，这可能微乎其微，但它将会实现。
这艘船还没开，但它开得很快。竞争一直存在而且将会很激烈。然而，这里有年轻一代的中国人，他们渴望知识，有雄心壮志；那些愿意提供知识的人，无论以什么身份，都会受益的，医疗保健、医药、基础设施等等。随着中国的持续发展，信息、创新和教育仍将占据显著地位。

Joan Del'Ur
"You could try to hide the reality but never you will achieve it", is such this kind of people that wanna do not see the sun and try to hide it with a finger, matter of time and everithing will get it place, same for what's coming up in near future about China, there not will be finger or hand that will hide it, water always get it course..

“你可以试图掩盖现实，但你永远不会得逞的”，就是有这样的人，不想看到太阳，并试图用手遮住阳光，但只是时间的问题，一切都会回归本位的，同样的，在不久将来的中国，手是隐藏不住它的，水到而渠成。

Joeri - The Magic Sauce 🥫
Nice article Fionn Very in-depth.
Think we’re all hoping for a better future. And yes, this is a great time to rethink.
China could lead the way to a better future, but I have a feeling it will choose short-term economic stability at any cost. The economy has been inflated in the media for years and is more fragile now than ever.
Also, China’s “aid to other countries” could be as insincere as the Americans bringing “democracy” around the world; self interest over harmony.
It’s just a thought. I hope I’m wrong.

很好的文章，非常深入的分析。
我想我们都希望有一个更好的未来。是的，这是一个重新思考的好时机。
中国可能会带领我们走向更美好的未来，但我有一种感觉，中国将不惜一切代价选择短期的经济稳定。媒体多年来一直在夸大经济，现在比以往任何时候都更加脆弱。
此外，中国对其他国家的“援助”，可能就像美国在世界各地带来的“民主”一样不真诚；利己主义凌驾于和谐。
这只是我的一个想法，我希望我是错的。

Fionn Wright
In light of the fact that they just cancelled a whole load of debt to African countries I’m wondering if that changes your perspective Joeri? The economy has been damaged for sure, though I wouldn’t call it “fragile”, it’s actually a lot stronger than it was even just a few years ago. I appreciate your feedback and glad we’re all aligned on rethinking for a better future!

（作者）考虑到他们刚刚取消了非洲国家欠的一大笔债务，我想知道这是否会改变你的观点？中国经济肯定已经受到了伤害，尽管我不会称这为“脆弱”，但实际上它甚至比几年前还要强劲得多。感谢你的反馈，很高兴我们都同意重新思考一个更好的未来！

D.A Belnavis Co-founder OXYGN™ 2 million MAU
Well written piece Fionn, congrats. I think in AI for eg. there is already a reality check that's being reached not only in China but globally. The AI assumption also I'm sure bakes in the assumption that China will somehow magically arrive at "Chip parity" soon? I for one think its within the capability of the country but it's so challenging that there is almost no way to say when that will occur. You may spend all the money in the world and still end up with nothing to show for it. The snapshot of the tech giants during and post-COVID is symptomatic of the way modern economies are viewed. I care more about how SMEs are doing, to be honest.

写得很好，Fionn，恭喜你。我认为在人工智能领域，不仅在中国，而且在全球范围内，已经有了一个现实的检验。我敢肯定，人工智能的假设还包含着这样一种假设：中国不久就会奇迹般地实现“芯片平价”？我个人认为这是国家能力范围内的事情，但是要实现它非常有挑战性，以至于几乎没有办法说什么时候会实现。你花掉世界上所有的钱，但可能最终却一无所获。科技巨头们在疫情时期和疫情之后的表现，反应了人们对现代经济的看法。说实话，我更关心中小企业的情况。

Heidi Berg
Very good long read. I would like to add one point: Western companies can also learn from China, even if they are not entering the market or cooperating with Chinese partners. E.g. how to use video and focus on good content creation and KOCs. These are trends that for sure will come to other markets, and valuable learnings can be gained from the Chinese market already now.

非常好的文章。我想补充一点：西方公司也可以向中国学习，即使他们没有进入中国市场，也没有与中国合作伙伴合作。例如，如何使用视频和专注于好的内容创作和KOCs。这些趋势肯定也会出现在其他市场，现在我们可以从中国市场学到宝贵的经验。

Fionn Wright
YES Heidi Berg certainly - that's a great point, and was the focus of my last article, but focused more on tech of dealing with the pandemic. You are right here so much to be learned from China. What are some other trends you are seeing that other markets could adopt?

（作者）没错，当然，这是一个很好的观点，也是我上一篇文章的重点，但更多的是关注应对这场疫情的技术。你可以从中国学到很多东西。你还看到其他市场还有哪些趋向可以效仿？

Heidi Berg
I think a main point is attitude: A reason that Chinese people and companies where fast to react to Covid-19, is that they always have to adapt to new changes. You have to run to stand still. Many companies in the West have not yet understood that this will increasingly be necessary everywhere.

我认为主要的一点是态度：中国人和中国公司对新冠疫情的反应很快的一个原因是，他们总是不得不适应新的变化。你必须跑起来，才能稳定。西方的许多公司还没有意识到，这点在任何地方都是越来越必要的。

Yoann DELWARDE
Heidi Berg I agree with you about 'attitude'. Chinese government has for example put in place favorable policies for small businesses by reducing their business & VAT taxes to 1% or even 0%! They took the decisions very shortly after the outbreak. It is now the easiest time to set up a small business and many of my friends (no matter foreigners or Chinese) are now using this time to start their dreams and quit their jobs. No time to complain here. It is all about reaction speed.

我同意你关于“态度”的看法。例如，中国已经为小企业制定了优惠政策，将他们的营业税和增值税降低到1%甚至0%！他们在疫情爆发后不久就做出了决定。现在是创业的最佳时机，我的许多朋友(不管是外国人还是中国人)正利用这段时间辞去工作，开始他们的梦想。没时间抱怨。这完全取决于反应速度。

Duncan Calder
All business people know that the two sides need to be talking to one another to make a deal. The more respectful the dialogue - the smoother the deal goes and the greater the prospects of win-win outcomes.
Right now the widespread misinformation and divisive messages in mainstream media are clouding the issues and throwing criticism at business leaders who promote friendly engagement with China to mutual interest.
We need business leaders to lead, to show strength and to focus on respectful positive friendships and engagement if we are to minimise the huge econonomic trauma that follows in the wake of this pandemic.

所有商界人士都知道，双方需要相互沟通，才能达成交易。对话越是尊重对方，交易就越顺利，双赢的前景也就越大。
现在，主流媒体中广泛传播的错误信息和分裂性信息，正在让这个事情模糊不清，并对那些为了共同利益而促进与中国友好接触的商界领袖提出批评。
我们需要商界领袖发挥领导作用，展示实力，并注重相互尊重、积极的友谊和参与，这样才能最大限度地减少这场疫情之后出现的巨大经济创伤。

Fionn Wright
Well said Duncan Calder - Leadership at its best is about moving towards, not away. It’s about being proactive, not reactive. It’s about having clear boundaries and respecting the boundaries of others. It’s about having a vision and striving for that vision. There is a lot to be learned from China, and we need to come together in these times to support one another.

（作者）说得好，领导力的最佳状态是朝着目标前进，而不是远离。积极主动，而不是被动反应。有明确的界限和尊重他人的界限。拥有一个愿景，并为之奋斗。我们可以从中国学到很多东西，我们需要在这个时候团结起来，相互支持。

Alan Scanlan - China Sourcing Expert
Super article - a lot to digest but some great insights into the challenges of launching/doing business in China. If you want any success you need to adapt to how business is done in China, I have seen so many examples over the years of western companies trying to change the Chinese mentality rather then changing theirs.
"you can't get away with being an ignorant foreigner anymore"

非常棒的文章，很多内容需要消化，也有一些关于在中国开展业务所面临的挑战的深刻见解。如果你想取得任何成功，你就必须适应中国的商业模式。多年来，我已经看到许多西方公司试图改变中国人的心态，而不是改变他们自己心态的例子。
“你不能再做一个无知的外国人了”

Fionn Wright
Any company, or individual for that matter, that can’t adapt to the rapidly changing environment is going to struggle. Those that are highly adaptable, while success is not guaranteed, will have a much better chance. In China this is amplified and accelerated due to a number of variables from the speed of growth to the long history to the tech ecosystem to the governmental structures - it really is an entirely different beast. Haha yes and the days of it being “cute” or “acceptable” that foreigners have no idea about China are gone, and in many ways due to the increasing nationalistic sentiment foreigners are now scrutinized with even more vigor than Chinese. Another one to add to the pile of the challenges of doing business here. China is business on hard-mode, but it also means you get to play with the elite players and win the big games.

（作者）任何不能适应快速变化的环境的公司或个人都将陷入困境。那些适应能力很强的人，虽然不能保证一定能成功，但他们的机会要大得多。在中国，由于从增长的速度、悠久的历史、科技生态系统，到政府结构等诸多变量，这一趋势放大和加速了——它确实是一头完全不同的猛兽。哈哈，是的，外国人对中国一无所知的“可爱”或“能接受”的日子已经是过去式了。在许多方面，由于中国民族主义情绪日益高涨，外国人现在比中国人更受审视。在这里做生意的挑战又多了一个。中国的商业是硬核模式，但这也意味着你可以和精英队员一起比赛，赢得大型比赛。

Alan Scanlan - China Sourcing Expert
adapt or die!

要么适应，要么死！

Ed Curtain
Great article Fionn. When I saw it posted I saved it for about a week to allow me time to read and digest. Now I’m travelling on a high speed train between Chinese cities, appreciating the safe practises encouraged and followed by locals here and just coming down from my latest hit of international hype news media that continues to outrageously portray China way out of context of what the reality is. Right now the opportunities being presented in my business are far more than any I’ve seen over my 12 years in China. Businesses are frantically pivoting to leverage the current situation. China not a threat, China is an example that others would be smart to pay attention to.

很棒的文章，Fionn。当我看到这文章被贴出来的时候，我把它保存了大约一个星期，以便有时间阅读和消化。现在我正在中国城市之间的高速列车上旅行，我很欣赏当地人鼓励和遵循的安全措施，我最近从国际炒作的新闻媒体中走出来，这些媒体继续肆无忌惮地脱离现实背景来描绘中国。目前，我在中国的业务所提供的机会，比我在中国12年来所见过的任何机会都多得多。企业正疯狂地转向借助当前的形势。中国不是一个威胁，中国是一个其他国家应该关注的榜样。

Ric Di Ianni
I think the wave image is very appropriate, as these waves are still, building and have not hit the wider world yet. We see them coming. however once they truly hit, the economic devastation will be profound. Due to China's state-of-the-art infrastructure, manufacturing capabilities, and huge internal market, it will be best positioned to thrive during the rebuild of the global economy. The myriad ripple-effects of these coming events are simply too many to grasp at this time.

我认为波浪的漫画形象非常合适，因为这些波浪还在积聚，还没有冲击到更广阔的世界。我们看到正来临了。然而，一旦波浪真正冲击过来，经济的破坏会是深远的。由于中国拥有最先进的基础设施、制造能力和巨大的国内市场，在全球经济重建期间，中国会处于繁荣发展的最佳位置。这些即将发生的事件所产生的无数连锁反应，在目前这个阶段实在很难理解。

Andrew Zint PhD
Loved reading your article, so much wisdom in your article, a must read for anyone interested in China. For those who want further great insights and advice I strongly recommend that you watch the video interviews with the people who are deeply involved in business here in China.
Many interesting ideas thoughts strategies, and important concepts to understand, such as ecosystems! Ecosystem thinking in China is complex deep and holistic. Much to be learned just in this area of thinking and business. Thank you Fionn Wright just awesome!

我很喜欢读你的文章，你的文章包含了很多智慧，对中国感兴趣的人来说，这是必读的。对于那些想要进一步深入了解和建议的人，我强烈建议你们观看与中国商界人士的视频访谈。
有很多有趣的想法、策略和重要的概念需要理解，比如生态系统！中国的生态系统思想很复杂、深刻、整体。仅仅在这一思想和商业领域就有很多值得学习的东西。谢谢你，Fionn，很精彩！

Konstantinos Papageorgiou
Great article Fionn Wright. Very fruitful as always with a numerous of succesfull professionals in the chinese market sharing their insightful thoughts. Having been the author of the official Strategy Plan to Approach China for the Greek Ministry of Tourism and extending it to other development and productive ministries, I have already mentioned in my article the crucial need for Greece to focus on Chinese Market and this was written just before COVID-19 came in Europe. Now it is more important than ever before for economies like Greece to tighten their relationship with China. Thank you for sharing.

文章很好，Fionn。中国市场上众多成功的专业人士分享他们的深刻见解。我曾是希腊旅游部门的《与中国接洽的战略计划》 的官方作者，并将其推广到其他发展和生产部门，已经在文章中提到了希腊关注中国市场的必要性，我写这篇文章是在新冠疫情在欧洲爆发之前。现在，对于像希腊这样的经济体来说，加强与中国的关系比以往任何时候都更加重要。谢谢你的分享。

Fionn Wright
Yes you are spot on here Konstantinos Papageorgiou now is the time for strengthening ties with China. It seems Italy is moving in the right direction here, other countries like Greece could benefit from doing the same. The US will do all it can to keep countries from improving the relations with China, and many (likely UK, Aus and a few others) will go down with the “American ship.” This will not be immediate but over the next few years will become increasingly apparent.

（作者）是的，你说的很对。现在是加强与中国关系的时候了。看起来意大利正朝着正确的方向前进，其他国家如希腊也可以从中受益。美国将会百般阻止各国改善与中国的关系，许多国家(可能是英国、澳大利亚和其他一些国家)将随这艘“美国船”一起沉没。但这种情况不会马上出现，在今后几年，将变得越来越明显。