[2020-05-21]疫情过后，美国能否不依赖中国产品的情况下生存？

A2A. Can the US survive without depending on China products post COVID-19?
Yes, of course the US can ‘survive’ without depending on China products.
A close-to-home example would be the Native Americans. They did ‘survive’, despite the genocide perpetrated by the invading Europeans. Right?
Here’s the fun bit.
The ‘mericans that may not ‘survive’ will the poorer and weaker; meaning approximately 50% of the current US population. These are the folks that are made to live from paycheck-to-paycheck by the rigged American Capitalism system, currently disguised as ‘Freedom’.
Economies-of-scale and systemic efficiencies in China’s supply chain has made the cost-of-life bearable for this group of Americans, up till now.

Tony Leng - 皇家墨尔本理工大学 工程制造业
谢邀，美国能否在后疫情时代，不依赖中国产品的情况下生存吗？
是的，当然，美国不依赖中国产品也能“生存”下去。
美洲原住民就是一个近在咫尺的例子，尽管入侵的欧洲人犯下了种族灭绝的罪行，但他们还是幸存了下来，是吧？
这就是有趣的地方。
那些可能无法“生存”的“美利坚人”将会变得更加贫穷和弱小，这意味着大约50%的美国现有人口。 这些人生活在受到操纵的美国资本主义制度下，他们的收入与支出几乎相抵，目前这种制度被伪装成“自由”。
迄今为止，中国供应链的规模经济和系统效率，使得这一群美国人的生活成本可以承受。

So, let’s see what happens when this lifeline is jeopardised.
Do you see the tens of thousands of US household queuing up at food banks now? Well, that’s a tiny glimpse of the future.
In the mean time, the powerful and richer folks will still live in their comfy enclave, as their monies move around the world, making more money.

所以，让我们看看当这条生命线受到威胁时会发生什么。
你看到现在成千上万的美国家庭在食物赈济处排队了吗？这只是对未来的一瞥。
与此同时，随着他们的钱在世界各地流动，赚更多的钱，那些有权有势的富人们仍将生活在他们舒适的飞地里。

Yes, but it will be hard to break free of our China habit. Things will cost more for a time. We will have inflation. It has been cheaper to hire cheap Chinese labor than to innovate in the USA. With the political risk, virus risk, etc created when buying from China in the end we will save money buying outside of China and making things in the USA. China is making things like ventilators with technology, design, and innovation created in America and Germany. In the last month the USA has begun another level of innovations on design and manufacturing of ventilators, masks, testing, etc and we are making the products in the USA. Let’s hope they does not steal our breakthroughs we are now creating at great expense.
If we stop importing medicines and medical supplies from China we may also reduce the supplies of illegal drugs being imported from China to the USA and Mexico. That would be an added plus.

Harold Creech - 佛罗里达州科利尔县前科学教师（2013-2016）
可以，但是要摆脱我们的中国习惯是很难的。在一段时间内，物价会上涨。 我们将面临通货膨胀。雇佣廉价的中国劳动力比在美国创新更便宜。随着从中国购买产品会产生政治风险，病毒风险等，最终我们将把钱省下来购买中国之外的东西，和在美国制造的东西。中国正在用美国和德国的技术、设计和创新制造如呼吸机之类的产品。上个月，美国在呼吸机、口罩、检测等的设计和制造方面，开始了另一阶段的创新，我们正在美国生产这些产品。希望他们不要窃取我们正在付出巨大代价取得的突破。
如果我们停止从中国进口药品和医疗用品，我们也可能减少从中国进口到美国和墨西哥的非法药品的供应。这将会是一个额外的好处。

Yes. But a good living at a low cost? Maybe no.
The US has noticed there are Chinese products everywhere in their daily lives long long ago. Some are worried and hope to make change. So Trump imposed high tax on Chinese products thus triggered the trade war.
But have you ever considered why there are Chinese product everywhere? China’s government forced the US to buy? No, it is the US merchants who decided to buy, because they want to make more money. That is the root reason behind all. The domestic made products are just too expensive to compete.
There are still many other countries can produce the same products, but at a higher price. So, the US could survive, but the ordinary people‘s lives will be even harder: They must spend more on their daily necessities. But their jobs will not come back, they just flow to other countries than China.

Jack Lee - 在中国工作
是可以。但是低成本的舒适生活？也许没有了。
很久以前，美国就注意到中国产品在他们的日常生活中随处可见。 有些人忧心忡忡，希望做出改变。 因此，特朗普对中国产品征收高额税收，从而引发了贸易战。
但是你有没有想过为什么到处都是中国产品？ 中国强迫美国购买了吗？ 不是，是美国商人决定购买这些产品，因为他们想赚更多的钱。这是所有这一切背后的根本原因。美国国产产品太贵了，无法与之竞争。
还有许多其他国家可以生产同样的产品，但价格更高。 因此，美国可以生存下去，但普通人的生活将更加艰难：他们必须在日常必需品上花更多的钱。但是他们的工作机会不会回来的，他们只是流向其他国家而不是中国。

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Chinese import taxes have to be raised to 100%.
And, taxes on American made set at 0%
Pharmaceuticals must be government subsidized for the immediate.

Marlene Hessler
中国的进口税必须提高到100% 。
而且，美国制造的税率要设定为0%
药品必须立即得到政府补贴。

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Do you know US order thousands of ventilators from China. Brokers paid three times more in US cash to outbid medical equipment that were originally destined to other countries at the airport tarmac and flown them to US? Think about this and you get the answer.
Even prior to Covid19, US consumers cannot survivelive without a single piece of Chinese products. I have read reports of American trying to live without any Chinese products - result: just cannot be done, it hurt their pocket very much.
Remember : Money Talks.

Henry Young 前银行经理(1974年-2008年)
你知道美国从中国订购了数千台呼吸机吗？在机场停机坪上，一些医疗设备原本要运往其他国家，然后用飞机运给美国，而中间商却以高出3倍的价格买下了这些设备？仔细想想，你就会得到答案。
即使在疫情之前，美国消费者也离不开任何一种中国产品。 我读过一些报道，说美国人试图在没有任何中国产品的情况下生活。结果：这是不可能的，这对他们的钱包造成了很大的伤害。
记住：金钱万能。

Sure, a problem that took decades to develop, will go away over a couple months.
Uh, no.
China is a well-organized powerhouse. They have very competent leadership. And they are the leading manufacturing power in the world. That isn’t likely to change soon.
However, it is VERY likely that companies will not rely entirely on China in the future. They will diversify their supply chains. While this is going to cause some serious strains in the world for a while, it’s a good thing overall.

Mike Brant - 退休的老头子
当然，一个花了几十年的时间才形成的问题，几个月后就会消失的。
嗯，不可能。
中国是一个组织严密的大国。 他们有非常称职的领导。 他们是世界上领先的制造业大国。 所以这种情况不太可能很快改变。
然而，企业未来很可能不会完全依赖中国。 他们将使供应链多样化。 虽然这会在一段时间内给世界带来一些严重的压力，但总的来说是件好事。

Americans need to listen and learn things. Trump and the DEMs will not tell you this.
40 million Americans were considered poor before Covid19. This number will rise. Some job which were lost, will not return. Mostly F&B related ones.
A big percentage of Americans cannot afford an additional sudden expenditure of 400$
China, the so hated China gave all Americans the products that they could and couldn’t afford. If US companies in an act of delirium decide to bring their productions, Americans WILL NOT BE ABLE TO AFFORD THEM.

Bob Thornton - 在中国生活
美国人需要倾听和学习。特朗普和民主党人不会告诉你这些。
在疫情之前，四千万美国人被认为是穷人。这个数字还会上升。有些工作丢了，就再也找不回来。主要是餐饮相关的。
很大一部分美国人承受不起额外的400美元的突然支出。
中国，这个被如此讨厌的国家，给所有美国人提供了他们负担不起的产品。 如果美国公司在神志不清的情况下决定生产自己的产品，美国人将负担不起。

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Sounds like it was written by a chinese.

Marlene Hessler
听起来像是中国人写的。

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Of course, but then the US would have to put in large tariffs, and that would be counterproductive to the growth of the US economy. This would mean that the standard of living in the US would be lower than it would be otherwise. The question is why is it an issue depending on Chinese products. Why not decouple the US from all products made overseas. The US cutting off China will mean that China will just sell to the rest of the world, and those countries would benefit from this relationship, while the US is left out. Maybe what the US should do is just close its borders to anything made overseas. Do you realize that some minerals mined in China are necessary to modern products.

Clifford Nelson
当然可以，但那样的话，美国将不得不征收高额关税，这将对美国经济的增长产生反作用。 这将意味着美国的生活水平将低于其他国家的生活水平。 问题是，为什么这个问题取决于中国产品。 为什么不把美国与所有海外产品脱钩呢。美国切断与中国的联系，将意味着中国会向世界其他国家出售产品，这些国家将从这种关系中受益，而美国将被排除在外。 也许美国应该做的，就是对任何海外制造的产品关闭边境。但你知道中国开采的一些矿物，对现代产品是必要的原材料吗？

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“Maybe what the US should do is just close its borders to anything made overseas.”
What about strategic reserves of products that the US doesn’t make and probably never will or able to procure?

Lance Chambers
“也许美国应该做的，就是对任何海外制造的产品关闭边境。”
那么产品的战略储配呢？那些美国不制造、可能永远不会或者无法获得的产品？

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We already are. We are producing ventilators at GM, Ford. Look how quickly we were able to adapt? After this, our companies will come home(Just Like Trump Has Wanted!). We can go back to producing our own goods and exporting them to the rest of the world, like before.

Joel Carlson - 奎斯塔社区学院维修工(1984年至今)
我们已经这样做了。 我们的福特和通用公司正在生产呼吸机。 看看我们适应得有多快？在这之后，我们的公司将会回家(就像特朗普想要的那样！) 我们可以像以前一样，回来生产我们自己的产品，然后出口到世界其他地方。

Of course US can survive. US is still the most powerful country. Without Chinese products, the goods would just be more expensive. Finally, the US citizens rather than Trump have to pay for that cost. Make a comparison, it looks like the US government collects more taxes from their own people. Thus, without China products, Americans would be affected while these politicians would gain benefits.

Garfield Li - 斯图亚特商学院 伊利诺伊理工学院 访问研究学者(2020年至今)
美国当然可以生存下去。美国仍然是最强大的国家。如果没有中国产品，商品只会更加昂贵。但最后，美国公民而不是特朗普必须为此举付出代价。相比之下，看起来美国政府从他们自己的人民那里征收的税更多。 因此，如果没有中国产品，美国人将受到影响，而这些政客将获益。

Medicine, car parts, toys, tools, electronics and so much more other stuff we consume is made in China. My cell phone, computer, my medicine, my shoes, my clothes, even my freeking frames for my eye glasses are made in China. We would have to bring all those industries back to the USA and then pay way higher prices for everything. It would take us decades to stop depending on them. But if we had to, I suppose we could do it. But, would we want to??

Frank Matiella 前情报官员（1976年-1992年）
医药、汽车零部件、玩具、工具、电子产品以及其他我们消费的东西都是中国制造的。 我的手机，电脑，药品，鞋子，衣服，甚至我的眼镜框都是中国制造的。 我们把所有这些产业都带回美国，然后将不得不为所有产品花更多的钱。我们需要几十年的时间才能不再依赖它们。但是如果我们必须这么做，我想我们可以做到。但是，我们愿意这样做吗？

Not without a total reorganization of its bankrupt financial system along Glass-Steagall lines and renewed commitment to investment in infrastructure and industry, as opposed to bailing out speculative debts. It will require a complete change in thinking from the Wall Street directed consumer-based society.

Joseph D'Urso - 在纽约市教育部工作
除非按照《格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案》的方针，对破产的金融体系进行全面重组，并重新承诺对基础设施和工业进行投资，而不是为投机性债务缓解困难。这需要彻底改变以华尔街为导向的消费型社会的思维方式。

Without a doubt. They have massive agricultural capability and manufacturing capability. There is also massive manufacturing capability in the rest of the world where the USA can buy products from. China is not essential.

Cynthia Diaz - 国际关系硕士(1997年)
毫无疑问可以。美国有巨大的农业生产能力和制造能力。世界其他地方也有大量的制造能力，美国可以从那些地方购买产品。 中国并非必不可少。

Survivalis too big a word for economies and countries - they always survive. Beyond that, why wouldn’t they want to continue buying where things are cheap, e.g. China?
People, not goods, brought the Coronavirus. For all we know, they might have been American travellers. Travel will not be banned in the post-Coronavirus world.

Thomas Shenstone - 伦敦经济和政治学院 经济学硕士(1975年)
生存对于经济和国家来说是个非常大的词，它们总是能生存下来的。除此之外，他们为什么不想继续购买那些东西便宜的地方呢，比如中国？
是人，而不是商品传播新冠病毒。 据我们所知，他们可能是美国的游客。在后疫情时代，旅游并不会被禁止。

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And you could not prevent infected Americans from coming into the US, wherever they had been. You could have quarantined them, which wasn't really done, but even so.

（作者）Thomas Shenstone
你无法阻止被感染的美国人回到美国，无论他们之前在哪里。你本来可以把他们隔离起来的，但实际上没有这样做，但是即便如此也一样。

How do you think those goods got to the US? Do you not understand business CEOs, etc. did the travelling and transported the virus?

Marlene Hessler
那你认为那些商品是怎么运到美国的？难道你知道企业首席执行官们是否在旅行和传播病毒？

If you think that walling yourselves off from China would have avoided the virus, you are mistaken. Studies of the virus in NYC indicate that most of it came from Europe. The virus went to the US, to Europe, to Iran and to South Korea. From some of those countries except Iran it could, and did get to the US. In Canada we think we imported most of our virus from the US. And the virus spread in all these countries before it was detected.
To prevent the arrival of the virus in the US you would have had to wall yourselves off completely from every country in the world, before even detecting the virus.

（作者）Thomas Shenstone
如果你认为把自己和中国隔开就可以避免感染病毒，那你就错了。 对纽约市病毒的研究表明，大部分病毒来自欧洲。 病毒传播到了美国、欧洲、伊朗和韩国。 除了伊朗以外，这些国家中的一些国家也可以传播病毒，而且确实传到了美国。在加拿大，我们认为我们的大部分感染病例是从美国输入的。这种病毒在被发现之前，就在所有这些国家传播。
为了防止病毒进入美国，你们必须在检测到病毒之前，将自己与世界上的每一个国家完全隔离。

And it would not have saved you. And you would be poor, both economically and intellectually.

（作者）Thomas Shenstone
这做法不会拯救你们美国的，你们只会变得更弱，无论是在经济上还是智力上。

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Yes absolutely! It will take adjustments. It will take bringing back production of many items for domestic consumption. And the shift is already beginning. Corporations are making moves right now to decentralize the supply chain. Our own worst enemy isn't China at the moment, it's the shutdown of our economy. But this too shall pass.

Jay Siders - 化学品运营商(2011年至今)
绝对可以！这需要调整。需要恢复许多产品的生产，以供国内消费。这种转变已经开始了。企业现在正在采取行动分散供应链。我们现在最大的敌人不是中国，而是我们的经济停滞。但这一切都会过去的。

Without question. It does not rely on Red China's products now, has not ever relied on Red Chins's products, and likely will not ever rely on Red China's products. The question is will Red China survive economic, cultural and political pariahhood in the coming decade.

Niall Brennan
毫无疑问。美国现在不依赖红色中国的产品，也从来没有依赖过红色中国的产品，而且可能永远不会依赖红色中国的产品。 问题应该是，红色中国能否在未来十年里，在经济、文化和政治方面生成下来。

No. In spite of all the bluster, Americans are a bunch of cheapskates. Very few of us would be willing to pay more to keep from buying low priced Chinese goods.

Carl Gaede - 前嵌入式软件工程师(1995年-2017年)
没法幸存。尽管吹嘘得天花乱坠，美国人也还是一群吝啬鬼。我们中很少有人愿意花更多的钱，来避免购买低价的中国商品。

A bit flippant, but sure! There won’t be as many Americans. But we have to get through the virus yet and for that you definitely need Chinese products.

Peter Elliott - 惠灵顿维多利亚大学建筑学士，建筑与设计(1997年)
有点轻率，但是幸存下来没问题！可能不会有那么多的美国人。但是，我们还必须克服病毒，为此，你肯定需要中国产品。

Yes, just ending with different cases and mortality.

SL Bai
可以，只是以不同的病例数和死亡率结束。

Products cost might rocketing until alternative production location is established.

Lau Choong Ling
产品成本可能飙升，直到建立起替代生产地。

No. The USA has not cultivated the talents to compete with China and that has nothing to do with Covid19.

Allan Lanktree
不会幸存的，美国没有培养与中国竞争的人才，这与新冠疫情无关。

Absolutely yes, but the US will soon bankrupt.

B.T. Yang
绝对可以，但是美国很快就会破产。

YES. USA will rebuild ALL factories and BUILD OUR OWN. WE WILL THRIVE AGAIN.

Marlene Hessler
可以。美国将重建所有的工厂，建造我们自己的工厂。我们将再次繁荣起来。

Long term the US doesn’t need anyone besides North America. Short-term it will be painful.

Cris Kle
从长远来看，除了北美，美国不需要其他任何国家，短期内将会很痛苦。

If the US stopped importing from China overnight, the world economy would collapse. It would make the Great Depression a minor hick-up. The global economy is integrated as never before. The collapse of one big player would collapse all players.
Important to note: the US dollar is the global reserve currency. Much of this debt is owned by the Chinese, the Japanese and by large international pension funds. A collapse of the dollar would mean the pensions of millions of people become virtually worthless.
A collapse of the dollar would cause a chain reaction that would affect every single person in the world except people living off the grid, like “uncontacted” tribes in the Amazon Forest.
As the old adage goes, if you have a small debt with the bank that you can’t pay back, you have a problem. If you have a huge debt with the bank you can’t pay back, the bank has a problem. In the case of US-China relations, China is the bank, the US the customer.

Jan Krikke 研究中国对现代世界的影响
如果美国一夜之间停止从中国进口，世界经济就会崩溃。这将会让大萧条显得小儿科。全球经济前所未有的一体化。一个大玩家的崩溃将会使所有玩家崩溃。
需要注意的是: 美元是全球储备货币。这些债务大部分由中国、日本和大型国际养老基金持有。 美元的崩溃将意味着数百万人的养老金几乎变得一文不值。
美元崩溃会引起连锁反应，影响到世界上的每一个人，除了那些生活在电网之外的人，比如亚马逊森林中的“与世隔绝的”部落。
正如一句古老的格言所说，如果你在银行有一笔无法偿还的小债务，那么你就有麻烦了。 如果你在银行有一笔无法偿还的巨额债务，那么银行就有麻烦了。 就美中关系而言，中国是银行，美国是客户。

One thing to remember is that much of the goods the US imports from China arent Chinese goods, they’re typically American, or to a lesser degree from South Korea and Taiwan.
Large multinationals like Levi’s, Nike, Apple, and a ton of smaller US companies moved manufacturing to China to save on manufacturing costs. But look at the stuff around your house and look at the MADE IN… See lots from China right? Now look at the brand of the goods, Not China!
So if the US stopped buying goods from China, they would be hurting China’s export as the US is still the largest export market by far, but they would be hurting American companies as well.
In my opinion, that’s not a realistic scenario. What would be, and could happen, is that American companies just find it no longer advantageous to manufacture in China as wages rise and costs increase and move manufacturing to other nations such as Vietnam or India.

Mike Parker
需要记住的一点是，美国从中国进口的大部分商品不是中国商品，而是典型的美国商品，或者在一定程度上来自韩国和台湾。
像李维斯、耐克、苹果这样的大型跨国公司，以及许多规模较小的美国公司，为了节省制造成本，纷纷将制造业务转移到中国。但是看看你房子内周围的东西，看看制造的地方... 看到很多来自中国，是吧？现在看看商品的品牌，不是中国的！
因此，如果美国停止从中国购买商品，这将损害中国的出口，因为美国目前仍是中国最大的出口市场，但这也将损害美国企业的利益。
在我看来，这不是一个现实的场景。随着工资的上涨和成本的增加，美国公司发现在中国制造不再有优势，会将制造业转移到其他国家，如越南或印度，这种情况可能会发生。

We can’t view things in that way. Both US and China are super country, no goverment can cut the bond between them, neither US nor China. If this did happen, there are supposed to have 3rd world war.
China won’t stop buying things from US and US won’t stop buying things from China. The question is at what price. Two countries like seesaw but the bond is solid.
US goverment is based on federals and every 4 years’ election tears apart US in races, color, national recognition. Hope US will not fall apart like the Sovit Union

Zhang Yanchao 大学教师，助理教授
我们不能这样看待事物。美国和中国都是超级大国，任何政府都不能削弱它们之间的联系，无论是美国还是中国。 如果这种情况真的发生了，那么第三次世界大战就应该爆发了。
中国不会停止从美国购买东西，美国也不会停止从中国购买东西。问题是要付出什么代价。 两个国家像跷跷板，但是关系是牢固的。
美国政府是以联邦政府为基础的，每四年的选举都会在种族、肤色、国家认可度等方面让美国四分五裂。 希望美国不要像苏联那样解体。

The US have built their manufacturing operations in China. If The US have stopped buying goods from China, the US companies will suffer the most (not China).
When the US companies don’t make money & dispose their china based plants, the Europeans and local Chinese companies will buy them.

Gert Jan Boer
美国在中国建立了制造业务。如果美国停止从中国购买商品，受影响最大的将是美国的企业(而不是中国)。
当美国公司无法赚钱并处理他们在中国的工厂时，欧洲人和当地的中国公司就会买下这些工厂。

the US economy would tank but it would only amount to a bit of a speed bump for China.
About 90% of the US retail market is supplied with Chinese goods. A good deal of the factory production is supplied with Chinese made components for final assembly in the US. These operations would be put out of business immediately.
On China’s side, even though the US is China’s largest single customer, they only amount to 18% of China’s total world sales so losing 18% would be inconvenient but not bankrupting. China trades with 124 countries around the world, the US trades with about 75.

Bob MacKenzie 前业主及私营业务经理(1973年-2019年)
美国经济将遭受重创，但这对中国来说只是一个小小的减速带。
大约90%的美国零售市场供应中国商品。 工厂生产的大部分产品都是由中国制造的零部件在美国进行总装。这些业务将立即停止。
在中国方面，尽管美国是中国最大的单一客户，但他们只占中国全球销售总额的18% ，因此损失18%会有点麻烦，但不会导致破产。中国与全球124个国家进行贸易，美国与大约75个国家进行贸易。

The Chinese economy would take a significant hit but they would offset it by increasing sales to other countries and internally. The bigger problem would be in the USA. I don’t think the average person in the USA realises how much they rely on Chinese goods these days. The effect would be devastating on the current USA life style, with their quality of life dropping right off the charts.
The bottom line is it would be bad for them both but probably 10 times worse for the USA than China.

David Annett 嵌入式系统工程师，在中国工作两年后回到新西兰
中国经济将会受到重大打击，但他们将通过增加对其它国家和国内的销售来抵消这一打击。而美国将面临更大的问题。我不认为现在美国的普通人意识到他们有多么依赖中国商品。 这将对当前美国的生活方式产生毁灭性的影响，他们的生活质量将会下降。
总之，这对双方都不利，但对美国来说可能比中国糟糕十倍。

China has a bunch of reserves. I think in the short term, they’d ramp the One Belt project up faster. That would keep a bunch of folks employed in valuable infrastructure projects. China already has a bunch of industrial robots on order. By 2021, they should be getting in position to compete with the US in areas like the international arms trade. Not having the US as a customer means they don’t have to worry as much about what the US says.
I do not think China will have trouble finding people willing to buy stuff on credit.

Randall Burns 经济记者
中国拥有大量外汇储备。 我认为在短期内，他们会加快一带一路项目的发展。 这样一来，就可以让一大批人继续从事有价值的基础设施项目。 中国已经订购了一批工业机器人。 到2021年，它们应该会在国际军火贸易等领域与美国展开竞争。没有美国作为客户，意味着他们不必太担心美国说了什么。
我认为中国不难找到愿意赊账购物的人。

First, USA cannot stop buying their goods. Reasons: people have tried living without using any goods made in China but fail. Even Apple was made in China. US companies are also manufacturing products in China
So the scenario you mentioned would not occur.

Henry Young 前银行经理(1974-2008)
首先，美国不能停止购买他们的商品。原因：人们尝试过不使用任何中国制造的商品，但失败了。甚至苹果也是中国制造的。 美国公司也在中国制造产品。
所以你提到的情况不会发生。

Nothing will happen but the focus of trade shifts to africa and other areas. by the way,America owes much money to China.

Aren Ou
美国公司除了把贸易重点转移到非洲和其他地区，什么都不会发生。 顺便说一下，美国欠中国很多钱。