[2020-05-03]巴菲特清空持有的美国四大航空股票

BrautanGud
“We made that decision in terms of the airline business. We took money out of the business basically even at a substantial loss,” Buffett said. “We will not fund a company that — where we think that it is going to chew up money in the future.”
Buffet took the blame for not moving sooner. I think he believes cutting losses now is going to look better down the investment road as the airline industry struggles indefinitely with lack of consumer demand.

“我们是根据航空公司的业务做出这个决定的。 我们基本上是在亏损严重的情况下从中撤资的，”巴菲特表示。 “我们不会资助一家我们认为将来会蚕食资金的公司。”
巴菲特因为没有早点行动而受到指责。 我认为，他相信随着航空业无限期地与消费需求不足作斗争，现在削减亏损在未来的投资道路上，看起来会更好。

elee0228
Warren Buffett takes the long view in his investments. The outlook for airlines is not looking good.

沃伦•巴菲特的投资目光长远。航空公司的前景不容乐观。

TaskForceCausality
That’s just the nature of aviation .Something always happens every decade that wipes out the industry. Aviation bounces back and grows until the next hit a decade later,then the cycle repeats.
In 2008 you had the Great Recession. Before that, 9/11. Before that was the first Gulf War, so on and so forth. We’re just in the ”Bust” phase of the Aviation Business Cycle.

这就是航空业的本质。 每十年总会发生一些事情，摧毁这个行业。航空业反弹并增长，直到10年后的下一次冲击，然后重复这个周期。
2008年经历了大衰退。在那之前是911。在911之前是第一次海湾战争，等等。 我们正处于航空业商业周期的“萧条”阶段。

ComradeFrisky
As a someone training to be a commercial pilot I hope you’re right or I have just wasted a lot of money and time.

作为一个受过商业飞行训练的人，我希望你是对的，否则我就浪费了大量的金钱和时间。

boysan98
Isn't freight the fallback for every pilot? Genuine question.

难道货运不是每个飞行员的退路吗? 真正的问题。

ComradeFrisky
In theory yes but now cargo jobs are getting more and more desirable to the point there won’t be enough jobs to support all the out of work pilots.

理论上是的，但是现在货运工作变得越来越有吸引力，以至于没有足够的工作来支持所有失业的飞行员。

boysan98
Gotcha. Is it possible to start an air freight business without being a millionaire first?

明白了。有没有可能不先成为百万富翁的情况下，就开始做航空货运业务呢？

ComradeFrisky
Well the plane you would need would have to be a large one to make it profitable. But I know two separate people who have each started their own “ag” flying business. “Ag” = agricultural. Crop dusting and surveying. They are doing pretty good. Although I worry drones are gonna take that too eventually.

你所需要的飞机必须是大型的才能盈利。 但我认识两个不同的人，他们各自开始了自己的“农业”飞行业务。农作物喷洒和观察。他们做得很好。虽然我担心无人机最终也会采取这种做法。

japdot
It really is amazing what drones are capable of in terms of survey.

就观察而言，无人机的能力确实令人惊讶。

Moserath
If you can find someone that'll loan you the money sure. That is unlikely I'd think.

如果你能找到一个肯借钱给你的人，当然可以，但我想那是不可能的。

Jae_Hyun
And you won't get as good of a loan even if you do find a lender, which will make competing even harder.

而且，即使你找到了贷款人，你也不会得到同样好的贷款，这将使竞争更加艰难。

smarch
“If you want to quickly become a millionaire, grab a billion dollars and open an airline” - R. Branson
Being a millionaire won’t cut it the industry.

“如果你想迅速成为百万富翁，那就拿十亿美元开一家航空公司”——R · 布兰森
成为百万富翁并不能阻止这个行业的发展。

Butteredgoatskin
No. At any airline, flying larger airplanes pays more than flying smaller airplanes normally. Opportunities to fly these large (wide-body) airplanes happen quicker and more often at cargo airlines. That’s an attractive lure for many pilots.

不能。在任何航空公司，乘坐大型飞机比正常情况下乘坐小型飞机支付更多的费用。 在货运航空公司，驾驶这些大型(宽体)飞机的机会更多，也更频繁。 这对许多飞行员来说是一个诱人的诱惑。

GiantWaterfall
Experienced USAF heavy pilots enter the chat.

经验丰富的美国空军重型飞行员进入聊天室。

D50
I work with two professional firefighters (technically apparatus operators/engineers) that are former airline pilots, and casualties of the 2008 financial crisis. They both still fly freight on the side.

我与两位专业的消防员(技术设备操作员 / 工程师)一起工作，他们曾是飞行员，也是2008年金融危机的受害者。 他们两个仍然在一边飞货运一边做消防员工作。

disagreedTech
Dude don't worry airlines will most definitely be back once we get a vaccine for this in a year or two. It just sucks bigly rn, but these things pass

老兄，不要担心，一旦我们在一两年内得到疫苗，航空公司一定会恢复的。虽然很糟糕，但这些事情都过去了

ComradeFrisky
That’s good to hear.

很高兴听到这个。

uthrowbawayc
The Great Recession and 9/11 had nowhere near the impact as covid on airlines. This isn't just a normal "bust". Many players in the airlines space are clinging on for their lives right now.

大萧条和911事件对航空业的影响远不及这次的疫情。这不仅仅是一次普通的“破产”。 许多航空公司的员工现在都在为自己的生存而坚持。

available-username-
They can cling, but I am still against bailing them out, let the free economy take over. I might be bias....

他们可以坚持，但我仍然反对救助他们，让自由经济取而代之。 我可能有偏见...

spa22lurk
I think the main argument by others is that airlines together forms a critical infrastructure. If we probe further, it still doesn't mean that we should bail out the current investors and management, so long as we can preserve the workers and the assets.
I think the best solution is to bail out the workers directly and let the investors and management pay the price. Investors losing money when a company goes bankrupt is a principle of market capitalism.
Some workers or worker sympathizers think that it is important to keep the company as it is. I think they are wrong because as it is the company is shitty. They cash out in good time, they don't treat workers particularly well and they would fail in less than one month of disaster.
The government money as it is bails out investors more than workers. When a company goes bankrupt, all investors are wiped out. Usually, management is also gone. However, workers in important companies are usually preserved. I think the auto bailout in 2008 was done after GM and Chrysler declared bankruptcy. I believe that the workers in general kept their jobs while the investors were wiped out. The government became the majority owner for a few years.
Also, there are two issues. One is to keep workers afloat while they have to stay home. Another is to allow workers to go back to their previous jobs once the pandemic is over. I think it is kind of premature to tackle the second issue when we don't know how long this lockdown will last. This is particularly true for airlines when many countries are impacted.
$50 billion could have paid 500,000 workers $100,000 each for one year. But now these bailout money is used to pay down the debts of the companies and to pay much reduced salaries for workers. Also, the workers could still be laid off in a few months.

我认为其他人的主要观点是，航空公司共同构成了一个关键的基础设施。 如果我们进一步调查，这仍然不意味着我们应该救助当前的投资者和管理层，只要我们能够保护工人和资产。
我认为最好的解决办法是直接救助工人，让投资者和管理层来承担代价。 当一家公司破产时，投资者赔钱是市场资本主义的一个原则。
一些工人或同情工人的人认为保持公司原样很重要。 我认为他们错了，因为公司本身就很糟糕。 他们在适当的时候全身而退，他们对待工人不是特别好，他们会在不到一个月的灾难中失败。
政府救助投资者的资金比救助工人的资金多。 当一家公司破产时，所有的投资者都出局了。通常情况下，管理层也会被淘汰。 然而，重要公司的员工通常会被保留下来。 我认为2008年的汽车业救助是在通用和克莱斯勒宣布破产后完成的。 我相信，在投资者被淘汰的时候，工人们总体上就保住了工作。 政府几年来一直是多数股权的拥有者。
此外，还有两个问题。 一个是让工人们在不得不呆在家里的时候保持生计。 另一个是，一旦疫情结束，允许工人回到以前的工作岗位。我认为现在处理第二个问题还为时过早，因为我们不知道这次封锁会持续多久。 当许多国家受到影响时，航空公司尤其如此。
500亿美元可以支付50万个工人每人10万美元一年。但是现在这些救助资金被用来偿还公司的债务和支付大幅减少的工人工资。 再过几个月，这些工人仍然可能会被解雇。

happs80
In that same vein, perhaps the government could step in to administer the company and give the voting equity in the company to the workers. This has worked in other organisations before.

同样，也许政府可以介入管理公司，将公司的投票权给予员工。 这在以前的其他组织中也曾有过。

3oons
How did the first Gulf War impact aviation?

第一次海湾战争对航空业有何影响？

boysan98
Oil prices spiked pretty hard. It made flying really expensive.

油价飙升相当厉害，这使得飞行变得非常昂贵。

MarkIsNotAShark
Isn't "grows for ten years then gets wiped out" kind of universal?

难道不是“增长十年后崩溃”的一种普遍现象吗？

K503
People are short-sighted in their investment outlook: the aviation industry has only lost money since Kitty Hawk.

人们对投资前景的看法是短视的：自从基蒂霍克公司以来，航空业就一直赔钱。

tinydonuts
How long? I would think in 2-3ish years they should be on the road to recovery. People aren't going to permanently cut back their travel.

多长时间？ 我认为在2-3年左右的时间里，他们应该会恢复。人们不会永久缩减他们的旅行。

TendiesRUs
2-3 years for an industry to recover with terrible margins already is an easy reason not to buy in. There will be and are much better industries to invest in at the moment.

对于一个利润率已经非常糟糕的行业来说，2-3年的复苏时间很容易成为不买进的理由。 现在有更好的行业可以投资。

GrootusMaximus
Eventually the planes will fly again, for sure. And a lot can happen during "eventually."

毫无疑问，飞机最终还是会再次起飞。在“最终”到来之前，可能会发生很多事情。

disagreedTech
And yea thats okay, thats the free market. You gotta let businesses fail and new ones replace em

是的，没关系，这就是自由市场。你必须让企业倒闭，让新的企业取而代之

HeGotTheWholeVillage
I know consultants who used to travel every week - their clients aren’t bringing them back ever. If airlines only have leisure travel, they won’t survive.

我认识一些咨询顾问，他们过去每周都要出差，他们的客户从来都不会带他们回来。如果航空公司只提供休闲旅游，他们将无法生存。

concord72
If airlines only have leisure travel, they won’t survive.
What would this look like? An increase in ticket prices all around?

如果航空公司只有休闲旅游，他们将无法生存。
这看起来像什么? 全面提高飞机票价？

VicticLusion
Increased flight costs, fewer available flights, decreased destinations/hubs. No point in having flights to small cities that were primarily used for business travel.

航班成本增加，可用航班减少，目的地/枢纽减少。 主要用于商务旅行的飞往小城市的航班毫无意义。

DaanGFX
There will still be flights to smaller cities just on smaller planes and maybe less frequently.

仍然会有飞往小城市的航班，只是使用小型飞机，而且可能不那么频繁。

VicticLusion
Consider it a lot like the problem amtrak currently has where many of its stops/trip lines are unprofitable. The current CEO of amtrak planned to discontinue those lines of service but senators and congressman from those states/districts threw a fit. Amtrak however is funded by the federal government where as airline's aren't. There isn't any financial reasoning to maintain service to areas where there is no possible profit from conducting those flights.
Take Roanoke Virginia as an example, only real airline flying there is American Airlines and you have to fly to Charlotte North Carolina or some other close large airport and then hop on a small prop plane to get to Roanoke. Most of the flights to and from are business passengers. You take away business travel and you take away the need for flights. What you'd see would be people having to drive from Charlotte or Dulles airports for the last leg of the trip. Delaware doesn't even have flights going there directly to the state. You have to go to Philadelphia.

就像美国铁路公司目前的问题一样，许多中途站 / 旅行线路都无利可图。 美国铁路公司的现任首席执行官计划停止这些服务，但是来自这些州 / 地区的参议员和众议员大发雷霆。 然而，美国铁路公司是由联邦政府资助的，而航空公司则不是。 没有任何财务上的理由，去维持那些不可能从这些航班中获利的地区的服务。
以弗吉尼亚州的罗阿诺克机场为例，只有美国航空公司才是真正在那里飞行的航空公司，你必须飞往北卡罗来纳州的夏洛特机场或者其他一些距离很近的大型机场，然后搭乘一架小型螺旋桨飞机去罗阿诺克机场。 往返的大多数航班都是商务旅客。 你取消了商务旅行，也就取消了对航班的需求。你会看到人们不得不从夏洛特或杜勒斯机场驱车前往旅程的最后一段。 特拉华州甚至没有直飞该州的航班。 你必须去费城。

Irishfafnir
Roanoke will be okay, Danville/Lynchburg maybe not so much

罗阿诺克会没事的，丹维尔 / 林奇堡可能没那么好

mdoldon
Yes Dramatically less flights less planes less employment. Leaving no way to get out from under heavy debt loads. Even their assets will become almost worthless with thousands of surplus jets. I doubt that a single non governmental airline can survive a loss of business travel without bankruptcy.
Frankly, cruise lines are just about the only thing that might be a WORSE bet.

是的，大幅减少航班，减少飞机，减少就业。 没有办法摆脱沉重的债务负担。即使他们的资产也会因为数千架过剩的飞机而变得几乎一文不值。 我怀疑一家非政府的航空公司能否在商务旅行的损失中生存下来，而不破产。
坦率地说，邮轮公司是唯一一个可能更糟糕的赌注。

WATTHEBALL
It's not like remote conferencing wasn't around pre-pandemic. Why wouldn't they just have cut air travel earlier when remote conferencing could've been done? Business is also friendship in some ways and respect too. It goes a long way in meeting and collaborating in person. Not everything is measured in $.

这并不是说远程会议在大流行前就不存在了。 既然可以进行远程会议，他们为什么不早点削减飞机旅行呢？ 在某些方面，商业也是友谊和尊重。 这对于面对面的交流和合作很有帮助。 不是所有的东西都是用钱来衡量的。

joecooool418
Because now that they were forced to use it, they know it works.
Our company has been using Zoom for the past six weeks and on Friday made the decision that all future quarterly directors meetings will be done through Zoom instead of flying and being there in person.
There will be a massive switch to telecommuting after this is over. Airlines and hotels are going to be in decline.
And if you hold stocks or bonds for commercial real estate companies, sell that shit on Monday.

因为现在他们被迫使用远程办公，他们知道这有用。
我们公司在过去的六个星期里一直在使用 Zoom 原创办公，并且在星期五决定所有未来的季度董事会议都将通过 Zoom 进行，而不是亲自飞到那里。
在这一切结束之后，将会有一场大规模的远程办公化。 航空公司和酒店将会衰落的。
如果你持有商业房地产公司的股票或债券，那么在周一卖掉这些吧。

joecooool418
You are in for a very rude awakening.
I’ve been in sales for 30 years logging 100k plus air miles every year.
Travel budgets will be slashed. And I can tell you that some of our biggest accounts like Target and Lowes for example, have already told us not to plan on coming to their facilities through the end of the year because they don’t want to expose their workers when they return.
100% of my trade shows are cancelled for the remainder of this year.
When in person business meetings are allowed again, expect access to employees to be severely restricted.
Business has changed forever.

你会大吃一惊的。
我从事销售工作已经30年了，每年的航空里程超过10万英里。
旅游预算将大幅削减。 我可以告诉你，我们一些最大的客户，比如 Target 和 Lowes，已经告诉我们取消计划在今年年底前去他们的工厂，因为他们不想让他们的工人回来的时候被感染。
今年剩下的时间里，我所有的展会都取消了。
当面对面的业务会议再次允许的时候，预计与员工的接触将受到严格限制。
生意永远改变了。

das_war_ein_Befehl
It’s habit. Same reason why so many jobs can be done remote but aren’t

这是一种习惯，这也是为什么有那么多工作可以远程完成，却不用远程完成的原因。

gr8willi35
Yes it is.

是这样的。

disagreedTech
Just becsuse something "can" be done remotely doesn't mean its better. Online college fucking sucks, just because it can be done digitally dont mean it should. People need to stop thinking about tech as a replacement rather than an enhancement for previous business practices

仅仅因为一些“可以”远程完成的事情并不意味着它更好。 网络大学糟透了，仅仅因为它可以通过数字化完成，并不意味着它就应该这样。人们需要停止将技术视为替代品而不是以往商业实践的增强。

Socal_ftw
Business travel isn't going away. Sure some companies might cut back, some airlines might fold but it will never go away. My travel budget for this year didn't go down but actually went up as I need to be meeting with my teams to get shit done. Teleconferencing doesn't work for multinational companies

商务旅行不会消失。 当然，一些公司可能会削减开支，一些航空公司可能会倒闭，但这种情况永远不会消失。 我今年的旅行预算没有下降，但是实际上上升了，因为我需要和我的团队开会才能完成任务。 电话会议不适用于跨国公司

GoBSAGo
Which airline? They’re not all going to last that long.

哪家航空公司? 他们不可能都撑那么久的。

tinydonuts
Hmm good point.

嗯，有道理。

JimSFV
I would have agreed, but Warren Buffet doesn’t agree with you. That is scary.

我本来想同意的，但是沃伦 · 巴菲特不同意你的看法，这太可怕了。

ontopofyourmom
Buffet? He looks forward a lot longer than 2-3 years.

巴菲特? 他期望的时间可不止2-3年。

torn-ainbow
People aren't going to permanently cut back their travel.
A number of companies right now are looking at if they still need offices. The lockdown has forced complacent companies to fully work out remote work and experience it.
There could totally be a permanent effect here, as some move to far cheaper and easier options than always travel.

“人们不会永久缩减他们的旅行。”
目前，许多公司正在考虑是否还需要办公室。 封锁迫使骄傲自满的公司全力开展并体验远程工作。
这完全可能是一个永久性的影响，因为有些人会选择比以往更便宜、更容易的旅行方式。

8604
That could be after bankruptcies and wiping out shareholders. Depends on how generous the government is with these bailouts.

这可能会发生在破产和股东被清除之后，这取决于政府对这些救助的慷慨程度。

blueberrywalrus
Some airlines aren't going to survive 2-3 years, and the ones that do will have a ton of debt.

一些航空公司不会存活2-3年，而那些存活下来的公司将会背上沉重的债务。

scrivensB
Interesting considering he’s generally opposed to short term moves and by all accounts the airline industry isn’t going away so in the long run it doesn’t seem like a big loss of a loss at all. Granted it may be a ten year swing for airlines to rebound and get back to all time highs.

有趣的是，考虑到巴菲特通常反对短期投资手段，而且所有人都认为航空业不会消失，所以从长期来看，这似乎根本不像是一个巨大的损失。当然，航空业可能需要十年时间才能反弹并回到历史高点。

telmnstr
What are all these weak financial newspapers going to do when this guy finally croaks? They won't have any clickbaity crap articles.
Warren does this, warren does that. Ugh. Can't wait for him to go away.

当这个家伙最终咽气的时候，这些虚弱的财经报纸会怎么做？他们就不会发表任何垃圾文章了。
巴菲特做这个，巴菲特做那个，等不及他消失了。

whereisyourwaifunow
the economy will rebound a little bit as consumer anxiety eases up and social/travel restrictions are lifted. Then it'll go down again if a second wave of the virus hits, or if the stimulus wasn't enough to prevent too many companies and jobs from being lost for a significant amount of time. Then once a new "normal" or a vaccine appears, it'll very slowly recover. Interest rates will be perpetually near-zero for the foreseeable future. Money will do back to being dumped into the stock market after all of this, making stock prices inflated again, since savings won't make much interest. The world economy will be even more vulnerable to future crises, more than after the 2008 housing bubble.

随着消费者焦虑的减轻和社交 / 旅游限制的解除，经济将会有所反弹。 如果第二波病毒袭来，或者刺激计划不足以防止太多的公司和工作岗位在相当长的时间内流失，那么就会再次下降。然后，一旦新的“正常”或疫苗出现，它将非常缓慢地恢复。 在可预见的未来，利率将永远接近于零。 所有这一切之后，资金又会重新被投入股市，导致股票价格再次上涨，因为储蓄不会产生太多利息。与2008年房地产泡沫之后相比，世界经济在未来的危机中将更加脆弱。

sackmonkey828
Smart! Good point

聪明! 说得好

notamentalpatient
Except for cemeteries and crematoriums

除了坟场及火葬场外都不会增长。

roborobert123
Luckily he didn’t sell Boeing shares.

幸运的是，他没有卖掉波音的股份。

milkhilton
Boeing's been having a rough ride for a couple years now

波音公司这几年一直过得很艰难

lenin1991
On the plus side, no one's asking them about the MAX anymore.

好的一面是，没人再问他们 MAX 的事了。

nochinzilch
It still could be. Buffet is just betting we are still on the downslope, and/or that the airlines' regrowth will lag behind other sectors.

现在也有可能。 巴菲特只是在打赌，我们仍然处于下滑阶段，而且/或者航空公司的重生将落后于其他行业。

Sergeant_Pancakes
That's just not going to be permanent. Sure, some unnecessary travel may be eliminated, but you're underestimating the amount of travel that is actually necessary.

这不会是永久性的。 当然，一些不必要的旅行可能会被取消，但是你低估了实际需要的旅行量。

p____p
still pretty expensive to die in America, although I guess the morgues won't be getting that money so much as funeral homes or whatever. not a bad time to invest in caskets.

在美国，死亡的代价仍然相当昂贵，尽管我猜停尸房不会像殡仪馆或其他什么地方那样得到那么多钱。现在投资棺材还不错。

sjfiuauqadfj
yea the funeral industry is a major industry. there are cheap ways to dispose of your remains tho

是的，殡葬业是一个主要产业，有很多便宜的方法来处理你的遗体

p____p
Just checked on this because I was curious. Internet says burial is around $6400.
The cost of cremation — with services — is approximately $3,720 in Texas. Without services, expect to pay between $1,000 and $2,200. An urn costs about $275 in Texas, though the exact cost will vary by provider.
I'm sure this varies but still that's more than a lot of people have in savings.

我只是好奇而已。 网上说葬礼的费用大约是6400美元。
在德克萨斯州，火葬和服务的费用约为3720美元。 如果没有服务，预计需要支付1000到2200美元。 在德克萨斯州，一个骨灰盒的价格大约是275美元，但具体的价格会因供应商而异。
我知道这个数字会有所不同，但是这笔花费仍然比很多人的存款要多。

RationalLies
An urn costs about $275 in Texas, though the exact cost will vary by provider.
Yeah but a peanut butter jar is $3 dollars. And you get a pint of peanut butter out of it.

“在德克萨斯州，一个骨灰盒的价格大约是275美元，但具体的价格会因供应商而异。”
是的，但是一罐花生酱只要3美元，而且你还可以从中得到一品脱的花生酱。

sjfiuauqadfj
yea thats why "green burials" are a new trend these days. cheap and environmentally friendly

是的，这就是为什么现在“绿色葬礼”是一种新的流行趋势，便宜又对环境友善。

p____p
searched local green burials, still $800+ though it won't matter if they just start dumping people in mass graves.

搜索了当地的绿色葬礼，还是需要800多美元，不过如果他们开始把人埋在万人坑里也没关系。

Show-Me-Your-Moves
Sit the passengers on top of the train to slow the spread of disease

让乘客坐在火车顶部，以减缓疾病的传播

InsertSmartassRemark
Well obviously planes aren't going to go away completely... High speed rail would drastically cut down on the need for domestic flights though.

很明显，飞机不会完全消失... 高速铁路将大大减少国内航班的需求。

InsertSmartassRemark
Convenience at the expense of the earth. I love it.

以牺牲地球为代价的便利，我喜欢它。

w4rlord117
As much as I love trains that’s just not a viable solution, at least not in America. You’re going to need trains that can go 500mph and can nonstop cross continent to be able to match an airplane, and that’s just not something that’s going to happen.

尽管我很喜欢火车，但这不是一个可行的解决方案，至少在美国不是。 你需要火车的时速可以达到500英里每小时，并且可以不停地穿越大陆，这样才能与飞机匹配，而这是不可能发生的。

mdoldon
Every airline in the world faces prett

世界上每一家航空公司都面临困境

JaconSass
Enter the age of permanent video conferencing

进入永久远程会议的时代。

forzion_no_mouse
do we really need to fly hundreds of miles and spend hundreds of dollars for 1 person to come to a meeting?

我们真的需要飞几百英里，花几百美元，就为了请一个人来参加会议吗？