蓝林网 > 国际社会 > 正文


文章原始标题:What are the odds of India replacing China as the manufacturing hub after the COVID-19 pandemic?


BB Raina , former Chief Manager(Alt Energy) at Indian Oil Corporation Limited (1981-2016)
Quite high. A great opportunity is waiting for India at its doorsteps provided it plays its cards well and true. Japan has already indicated about it. Well before a deadly virus began spreading across multiple borders, a world defined by deepening interconnection appeared to be reassessing the merits of globalization.
The United States, led by Donald J. Trump, was ordering multinational companies to abandon China and make their goods in American factories. Britain was forsaking the European Union, almost certainly reviving customs checks on both sides of the English Channel, while threatening to disrupt a vital trading relationship.
The coronavirus insinuating itself into more than 200 countries while killing more than 95000 people and infecting more than 1.6 million, has effectively accelerated and intensified the pushback to global connection. It has sown chaos in the global supply chain that links factories across borders and oceans. Many companies are now seeking alternative suppliers in countries that appear less vulnerable to disruption.

BB Raina ,印度石油有限公司前总经理(1981-2016)
新冠病毒潜伏在200多个国家,95000人死亡,感染了超过160万人,加速并加强了对全球联系的倒退。它在全球供应链中播下了混乱的种子。 许多公司现在都在那些看起来不那么容易受到影响的国家寻找替代供应商。

The epidemic has supplied Europe’s right-wing parties a fresh opportunity to sound the alarm about open borders. It has confined millions of people to their communities and even inside their homes, giving them time to ponder whether globalization was really such a great idea.
“It reinforces all the fears about open borders,” said Ian Goldin, a professor of globalization and development at Oxford University and an author of a 2014 book that anticipated a backlash to liberalism via a pandemic, “The Butterfly Defect: How Globalization Creates Systemic Risks, and What to Do About It.” “In North America and Europe, there is a recalibration, a wanting to engage on a more selective basis,” he said.

这种流行病给欧洲右翼政党提供了一个新的机会,为开放边界敲响警钟。 它将数百万人限制在自己的社区甚至家中,使他们有时间思考全球化是否真的是一个很好的主意。
牛津大学研究全球化与发展的教授伊恩 · 戈尔丁说,“这加剧了人们对开放边界的担忧。”戈尔丁在2014年出版了一本书,名为《蝶形缺陷: 全球化如何产生系统性风险,以及如何应对》他说:“在北美和欧洲,有一种重新调整的趋势,希望在更有选择性的基础上参与。”

The most obvious impact is on trade. The epidemic has prompted a re-examination of the world’s central reliance on China as ground zero for manufacturing.
In Mr. Trump’s depiction, any product made in a foreign country and then sold in the United States amounts to an instance of American workers getting fleeced. In that spirit, the Trump administration imposed tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of goods from China, promising that this would force companies — from clothing brands to gadget makers — to bring production back to the United States.But has failed to produce the promised jobs, instead yielding a manufacturing slowdown in the United States. Some multinational companies have moved factory production away from China, shifting work to Vietnam, Bangladesh and Mexico.

最明显的影响是贸易。 这种流行病促使人们重新审视世界对中国制造业的核心依赖。
在特朗普先生的描述中,任何在外国制造的产品,然后在美国销售,都相当于美国工人被敲竹杠的例子。 本着这种精神,特朗普政府对价值数千亿美元的中国商品征收关税,承诺这将迫使从服装品牌到电子产品制造商的企业把生产带回美国。但他最终并没有带来所承诺的就业机会,反而导致美国制造业放缓。 一些跨国公司已将工厂生产从中国转移到越南、孟加拉国和墨西哥。

Trump administration officials have taken the coronavirus outbreak as the impetus to reinforce their pressure on companies to leave China. It is believed that it will help accelerate the return of jobs to North America.
Ref: A Global Outbreak Is Fueling the Backlash to Globalization


Aakash Chaudhary , Facility Manager at Jones Lang LaSalle India (2019-present)
India can't do that, I know being an Indian saying that is not right, but any day better than living in a fools paradise.
Make in India is only an election lollipop, nothing if that sorts is happening, because only giving encouraging words is not sufficient, monetary and financial support is important, not only for startup and small scale industry.
Also the red tapism gas not finished, this in turn still creates problem in establishing production units and factories.
In contrast countries like Bangladesh, phillipines Vietnam are taking over as manufacturing hubs that too at a good pace. The new world order might see them as the production unit countries.India and China will not have that standing.

Aakash Chaudhary ,印度仲量联行设施经理(2019年至今)

For India we can't go over the religious bigotry, and caste and colour, and dalit and non dalit.
People may not agree but these issues have created problems for us since independence, and still are and always will. Our only focus is on who has to stay and who has to go.we don't talk about development, improvement in agriculture, jobs, employment.
Our talks are only surrounded around religion, caste, colour.

人们可能不会同意,但是这些问题自从独立以来就给我们带来了问题,现在仍然如此,将来也会如此。 我们唯一关注的是谁必须留下,谁必须离开。我们不谈发展、农业改善、就业。

Arun Prasad , Businessman
Covid adds additional fuel only, already most countries and companies are on a verge to move out of china. They are in process, But it matters who reap it. India has tough Competions nowadays say Indonesia, phillipines , bangladesh, etc .. Though the chances for india are bright.
But nowadays things are getting cleared 1 by 1, we know india had overtook nearly 50 countries in last 3 years in ease of doing business nation list, but need even better for our vision.

Arun Prasad ,商人
新冠疫情只是多加了一把火,大多数国家和公司已经打算离开中国了。他们正在进行中,但谁来收获才是最重要的。印度现在的竞争很激烈,比如印度尼西亚,菲律宾,孟加拉国等等... 虽然印度的机会很光明。

The hope is bright, vision is good ,process is bit average and local inutiative is poor.
Lets hope for best toward “make in india”


Thyaga Rajan , former Private Secretary (1978-2009)
Chances are bright not due to CV (which has given more and enhanced hopes). This was foreseen last year Aug/Sept itself that many foreign companies presently in china were thinking of relocating to India. CV only added to the above impetus. Yesterday too there was a news report that many big japanese companies, presently in china, are seriously thinking of shifting to india.

Thyaga Rajan ,前私人秘书(1978-2009)

Kishor Shah , works at Self-Employment
With COVID19 PANDEMIC the idea of GLOBAL VILLAGE will be tossed off. Individual country would try to be self sufficient for their present and future needs.
It would not be wise to expect that India will be alternate manufacturing hub for Western demands.
Economic thinking of Division of Labor, on world scene, is no more viable. Political needs would dictate economic wisdom.
This is a BREXIT moment for all states to run away from WTO thinking.
Time to formally wind-up WTO.

Kishor Shah 、自主创业

Vivek Khare , studied Master of Business Administration Degrees at Devi Ahilya Vishwavidyalaya, Indore
There are fair amount of chances. Japan has already asked it's cos to exit from China. US may follow the same too. India needs to be ready to welcome them proactively.

Vivek Khare ,在印多尔德维·阿希利亚·维什瓦维贾亚攻读工商管理硕士学位
有非常多的机会。日本公司已经准备好离开中国。美国可能也会紧随其后。 印度需要做好准备,积极主动地欢迎他们。

Pabitra Saha
Very low.
Already foreign investors were leaving India before the virus pandemic

Pabitra Saha

Balachandran Krishnamoorty , Management Accountant
China has already kick started its manufacturing activity. Chinese manufacture will be the first to return to normalcy. India replacing China as the manufacturing hub is not even a dream; it is just wishful thinking.

Balachandran Krishnamoorty 管理会计
中国已经启动了制造业活动。 中国制造业将是第一个恢复正常的。印度取代中国成为制造业中心甚至连梦想都不算;这只是一厢情愿的想法。

Mohan Kalaiselvan , lives in Thiruninravur, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India
India is just entering the critical phase while China is coming out of it. Secondly the tecnical advancement and administration are not affected by the virus. There are no short cuts to growth. It is achieved by investment in education and health for a pretty long time, for many decades.

Mohan Kalaiselvan 生活在印度泰米尔纳德邦金奈的蒂乌尼拉夫

Dhananjaya Bhupathi , former Manager at Syndicate Bank (1974-2008)
Corruption, Delays & red-tape, irresponsible politicians-except to loot as much as feasible, Duds of Adhocism in GOI + states, etc.

Dhananjaya Bhupathi ,前辛迪加银行经理(1974-2008)

Ramdoss Kandallu , former IRO Engineer Prof in Mechanical
The dragon country will do anything to retaliate

Ramdoss Kandallu ,前税务局工程师,机械系教授

Prabhashcojha , B.Tech& MBA from Birsa Institute of Technology, Sindri (1977)
It can happen only if the government officials stop unnecessary interference.

Prabhashcojha 博萨理工学院理工硕士(1977年)

Tapan Sur
Enormous opportunity, but our labour laws need to be changed & it cannot become like communist countries, we are a democracy & largely a welfare state

Tapan Sur

Ranjeet Chandi , former Senior Manager (1970-2002)
Lot of manufacturing will return to the USA and also may be to W Europe! Trump had already started doing this and now there will be a greater impetus, for this to occur.

Ranjeet Chandi ,前高级经理(1970-2002)
很多制造业将会回到美国,也可能回到欧洲西部! 特朗普已经开始这样做了,现在会有更大的动力,促使这情况的发生。

Managed Homz, manufacturing
China is a manufacturing superpower with a manufacturing output of nearly 4 Trillion US$. In other words, China’s manufacturing output is roughly 28% of the world’s manufacturing output. However, since 2006, Chinese exports are shrinking due to rising wages in India. Did India take benefit of this situation since 2006? The answer is No. Therefore based on the past track record of Indian manufacturing, it is difficult to see India becoming the manufacturing hub.
To become a manufacturing hub, manufacturing infrastructure needs to be developed in the country. However, India has failed to build this manufacturing infrastructure since 2006. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that India will become a manufacturing hub unless and until policymakers turn their attention to developing the manufacturing infrastructure in the country first.
Kindly note, manufacturing infrastructure is different from Physical infrastructure (roads, ports, railways).

Managed Homz, 制造业
中国是一个制造业超级大国,制造业产出接近4万亿美元。 换句话说,中国的制造业产出约占世界制造业产出的28% 。 然而,自2006年以来,由于印度工资上涨,中国的出口正在萎缩。 自2006年以来,印度是否受益于这种情况? 答案是否定的。 因此,根据印度过去的制造业记录,很难看到印度成为制造业中心。
要成为制造业中心,印度需要发展制造业基础设施。 然而,自2006年以来,印度一直未能建设相应的制造业基础设施。 因此,除非政策制定者首先将注意力转向发展印度的制造业基础设施,否则印度几乎不可能成为制造业中心。

Chandra Bindu, lived in India
India has one more chance to become a manufacturing hub.
Startups should be given emphasis and gov. should focus on improving trade relations with developed countries to boost export to those countries.
All this will happen only if Indians work hard to make it a reality.

Chandra Bindu,住在印度

Shailendra Engineer, An Engineer, Entrepreneur
No, China is world's factory, it took 20–25 years for China to come at this stage! India cannot become a global factory because, Indians are preoccupied with religion, caste, race-wars, in-fighting! In order to keep power and authority in the hands of few upper castes (Brahmin, Kshatriya, Baniya etc), education sector has been systematically damaged! The SC/ST/OBC/Muslim/Christian/Buddhist/Sikh etc form 90% of population, but there is no political, administrative representation matching with their population percentage! Indian Democracy is a Big Joke! Basically, India runs on the principles of “Manu Smriti”. So, India cannot have any advantage, India will never have advantage unless they “treat” every citizen as “equal”.

Shailendra Engineer, 工程师、企业家
没有机会,中国是世界工厂,中国花了20到25年的时间才达到现在的水平!印度不可能成为世界工厂的,因为,印度人所有精力都专注于宗教、种姓、种族战争和内斗!为了让权力和权威掌握在少数上层种姓手中(婆罗门、 克沙特里亚、 巴尼亚等等) ,教育部门已经遭到了系统性的破坏! 列表种姓 / 列表部落 / 其他落后阶层/ 穆斯林/ 基督教/ 佛教/ 锡克教等占人口的90% ,但没有与其相匹配的政治、行政代表!印度民主就是个大笑话!基本上,印度是按照“摩奴法论”的原则运行的。 因此,印度不可能有任何优势,印度也永远不会有优势,除非他们“平等对待”每一个公民。(译注:“摩奴法论”分十二章,内容涉及礼仪、习俗、教育、道德、法律、宗教、哲学、政治、经济、军事、外交等等,构建出以四大种姓为基础的社会模式。法论出现后,长期成为印度教的法制权威,至近现代仍具有影响力,并被视为研究印度社会的基本文献)

Balachandran Krishnamoorty
India had several such opportunities. It had a 3 year head start over China in joining WTO. It had a chance when China's double digit growth came to an end. It had further chance during the peak U.S. - China trade war. Every time India missed the bus. Sorry, Indian private sector no longer has the capability or will to exploit any more opportunities.

印度有过几次这样的机会。 印度在加入世界贸易组织时比中国早了3年,这是一个机会。当中国两位数的经济增长结束的时候,这也是一个机会。在美中贸易战的高峰期,这次机会更大。但每次印度都错过了班车。抱歉,印度私营部门已经没有能力或意愿去利用任何更多的机会了。

Cyriac Kandathil, former Engineer at Directorate of Technical Education, Kerala (1995-1996)
China and India are likely to be least affected by the virus. The great US is paralyzed.100000 deaths will cripple the country and shut down its businesses. It can not even manufacture 340 million face masks. It is such a small thing. Europe has no manpower.

Cyriac Kandathil, 曾任喀拉拉邦技术教育局工程师(1995-1996年)

Sivaperumal Balamurugesan, former Corporate Manager
Very unlikely. Because the labour laws in India are not favourable to start any multinational company in India unless there is a compulsive reason to do so. Besides the productivity of Indian labour is about half as much as the Chinese, the working time is half as much and the benefits are twice as much. India is one country where the labourers are more inclined to eat into a company rather than build one. They go on demanding more and more, do less and less and learn nothing.

Sivaperumal Balamurugesan, 前公司经理
非常不可能。 因为印度的劳动法不赞成在印度开办任何跨国公司,除非有强制性的理由。 除此之外,印度劳动生产率大约是中国的一半,工作时间是中国的一半,福利却是中国的两倍。 在印度,劳动者更倾向于吞并一家公司,而不是建立一家公司。 他们要求越来越多,做的越来越少,什么也学不到。

Balachandran S, Partner at Sunn Auto (1970-present)
No, just like that they can't move out of China and moreover China is way-a-head in the manufacturing sector compared to India and to reach the present status of China, it will take at least 25years which is not possible at this juncture for India. So, USA and other European nation who has got manufacturing base at China won't move out just like that and China knows how to tackle them.

Balachandran S, 尚恩汽车公司合伙人(1970年-至今)
不可能的,那些公司不会离开中国,而且中国在制造业方面比印度领先一大截,要达到中国目前的地位,至少需要25年时间,这对印度来说是不可能的。 因此,在中国拥有制造业基地的美国,和其他欧洲国家不会就这样搬走,而中国知道如何解决这些问题。

Vs Srikanth, lives in India (1991-present)
Surely they will move. Firstly Americans don't like China and now because of this they started hating it. So, once this pandemic gets finished then they will shift their manufacturing base to India

Vs Srikanth, 住在印度 (1991年-至今)

Divya Mukhopadhyay, Student
Yes, certainly.
Just yesterday, former chief economic advisor Dr. Arvind Subramanian in an interview to India Today mentioned the that this was the most opportune time of putting full force behind the Make in India initiative. He highlighted the importance of the fact that India could become an alternative supply chain destination for multinational companies.
Dr. Subramanian also highlighted the necessity to look beyond Information Technology and Pharmaceutical sectors for export opportunities.
So I do hope that government has taken cognisance of the points highlighted by Dr. Subramanian in his interview.

Divya Mukhopadhyay, 学生
就在昨天,前首席经济顾问阿文·苏布拉曼尼亚博士在接受《今日印度》采访时提到,这是全力支持印度制造计划的最佳时机。 他强调印度可以成为跨国公司的另一个供应链目的地这一事实的重要性。

Hari Gobindram, Proprietor (1973-present)
Today in stock market Metal shares rose.
Auto share rose.
Reason : China is getting back to normal.
Hence Auto sector will get parts from China.
Likewise other sectors .
India cannot produce many parts. Hence imports are must .
China exports 87 billion USD to India.
Our economy runs because of China parts.

Hari Gobindram,业主 (1973年-至今)

Sam Karthik, Living in China,China Forum Expert
For India to become the next manufacturing powerhouse, it must first learn from China – with or without the coronavirus.
China’s economy has suffered an unexpected double whammy. The trade war unilaterally launched by US President Donald Trump first sent businesses on a frantic search for alternative supply chains, and now the Covid-19 pandemic has further disrupted global supply chains.
These disruptions, together with talk of “decoupling”, have seen many look at alternative manufacturing destinations outside China. It was against this backdrop that India, superficially the closest comparison to China in terms of population and economic potential, came into play.
India could emerge as the next manufacturing powerhouse, to replace China. Yet, at the same time, it appears to be one of the worst-stricken economies in terms of supply chain disruption, especially now with a national lockdown in place to contain the spread of the coronavirus.
Can India seize the opportunity to give China a run for its money in global manufacturing? The answer hides in a paradox: India needs China before it can replace China.
When Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the “Make in India” campaign in 2014, it was a policy melange that hardly differentiated between the industrial sectors in which India had comparative advantages and those where it had none. As a result, under “Make in India”, the share of manufacturing in terms of India’s gross domestic product even fell – from 15 per cent in 2014 to 14 per cent in 2019.

Sam Karthik, 在中国生活,中国论坛专家
中国经济遭受了意想不到的双重打击。美国总统唐纳德 · 特朗普单方面发动的贸易战首先让企业疯狂寻找替代供应链,而现在新冠疫情又进一步扰乱了全球供应链。
印度有可能成为下一个制造业大国,取代中国。 然而与此同时,就供应链中断而言,中国似乎是受影响最严重的经济体之一,尤其是现在,中国为遏制新冠病毒蔓延,而实施全国封锁的情况下。
2014年,当印度总理纳伦德拉 · 莫迪发起“印度制造”运动时,这是一个政策混合体,几乎不去区分印度具有相对优势的工业部门,和没有相对优势的工业部门。结果,在“印度制造”项目下,制造业在印度GDP中所占的比重甚至从2014年的15% 降至2019年的14% 。

While most industries registered either stagnant or modest growth, however, India’s cellphone industry stands out. The country’s tremendous market potential, plus dedicated industrial policies like the Phased Manufacturing Programme, have created nothing short of a miracle.
The number of cellphone and accessories manufacturing units rocketed from a mere two in 2014 to over 260 in 2019. Today, India is the world’s second-largest maker of cellphones, with 95 per cent of them assembled locally.
It was this “cellphone miracle” that encouraged policymakers to target development of industries where India has niche comparative advantages.This was suggested in the government’s 2019-20 Economic Survey, which recommended that India should draw a lesson from China.It seems that India cannot replace China before and until it learns from China.

然而,尽管大多数行业的增长要么停滞不前,要么适度放缓,印度的手机行业却脱颖而出。 印度巨大的市场潜力,加上专门的产业政策,如分阶段制造计划,创造了一个不折不扣的奇迹。
手机和配件制造单位的数量从2014年的2个激增到2019年的260多个。如今,印度是全球第二大手机制造商,95% 的手机都是在本地组装的。

When Covid-19 struck China, many Indian policymakers and industry leaders saw opportunities rather than a crisis. Top officials called for meetings with industry representatives, while Deepak Sood, secretary general of the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (Assocham), called for a clear strategy to fill the gaps in the global market and to compete effectively with China “even when the Chinese exporters are able to normalise their global supply chain”.
As Chinese investment in Indian industries has surged in recent years, China has in effect become India’s “tutor” for industrialisation. For a wide spectrum of industries, China has not only sent India its technicians, managers, engineers and investors, but also supplied it with large quantities of raw materials, intermediate goods and capital goods.
For example, the cellphone industry still imports around 75 per cent of the components from China, with only 12 per cent made at home. As a result, even before its own lockdown, supply disruption could see Indian manufacturers run out of critical components, including printed circuit boards, camera modules and semiconductors.
An adverse shock in China could generate a tsunami in Indian manufacturing, with industries like electronics, medicines, textiles and autos bearing the brunt.

近年来,随着中国对印度工业的投资激增,中国实际上已成为印度工业化的“导师”。 在众多行业中,中国不仅向印度输送了技术人员、管理人员、工程师和投资者,还向印度提供了大量原材料、半成品和资本品。

Since the outbreak, the Indian government has held at least one round of detailed consultations to identify potential suppliers for 1,050 critical items. An analysis by the Commerce Department showed the situation was grim for pharmaceuticals, cellphones, electronics, home appliances and plastics.
Moreover, despite efforts to boost India’s manufacturing, it consists mainly of assembly lines rather than industrial clusters, so it has some way to go to develop a fully fledged capacity comparable to that of China.
Modern manufacturing has a sophisticated multi-tier structure: those directly connected to the assembly line are the first-tier suppliers, who have second-tier suppliers of their own, who may, in turn, have a third tier of suppliers.
For example, as one commentator pointed out in Foreign Policy, Volkswagen has around 5,000 first-tier suppliers, each with an average of 250 second-tier suppliers, so it could end up with as many as 1.25 million suppliers.
So even if the Indian government successfully attracted some manufacturers with their first-tier suppliers, it would still need to cultivate a suppliers’ network and forge industrial clusters.

自疫情爆发以来,印度政府至少进行了一轮详细的磋商,以确定1050种关键物品的潜在供应商。 商务部的一份分析报告显示,医药品、手机、电子产品、家用电器和塑料制品的情况都很糟糕。

Furthermore, as Apple’s aborted idea of relocating its iPhone 11 production to India has demonstrated, one should not take assembly-line readiness for granted. Suppliers are able to build large-scale factories in China, employing more than 250,000 semi-skilled workers because the Chinese education system prepares tens of thousands of these battle-ready technicians and engineers.
By contrast, India lacks the capacity to provide such skilled and semi-skilled workers. And these problems will linger as long as the Indian government balks at critical reforms for labour and land.
While the Covid-19 outbreak has fed the Indian delusion of filling the vacuum China has left, it also reminds India that it still needs to learn from China before it can replace it.
Fortunately, China wants to see a robust and prosperous manufacturing sector in India. At their meeting last October, President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Modi agreed to explore setting up a partnership in manufacturing.
Amid such havoc across global supply chains, maybe it is time for the world’s two largest countries to inject new dynamics through such joint initiatives.

此外,正如苹果将其 iPhone 11 生产迁至印度的计划流产所表明的那样,我们不应该认为装配线的准备工作是理所当然的。 供应商之所以能够在中国建立大型工厂,雇佣超过25万名半熟练工人,是因为中国的教育体系培养了数万名随时准备战斗的技术人员和工程师。
相比之下,印度缺乏提供这种类型的熟练和半熟练工人的能力。 只要印度政府在劳动力和土地的关键改革上犹豫不决,这些问题就会一直存在。
幸运的是,中国希望看到印度制造业蓬勃发展。 在去年10月的会晤中,中国领导人和莫迪总理同意探讨在制造业领域建立伙伴关系。面对全球供应链的浩劫,或许是时候让世界上最大的两个国家通过这种联合行动注入新的动力了。