帖子作者:Nicholas A. Christakis - 耶鲁大学社会科学与自然科学教授,医生。《美好社会的进化起源》的作者
If we want to understand how powerful an opponent SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) is, let’s take a look what has been required to stop it in China. The Chinese government has essentially used a social nuclear weapon in its efforts. Let’s talk about this, to understand what US is facing. 1/
1、如果我们想了解新冠病毒有多强大,让我们先看看中国是怎么阻止它的。中国ZF实际上使用了堪称社会核武器的措施。我们来谈谈这个,了解一下美国面临着什么。
The Chinese have had the most COVID19 cases so far (80,859), but the number of new cases has dropped from 100's per day a month ago to ~46 per day now — in a country of 1.4B people. This is an astonishing achievement from a public health point of view. 2/
2、到目前为止,中国的新冠肺炎病例(80859例)是世界最多的,但是新增病例的数量已经从一个月前的每天100例,下降到现在的每天46例左右——在一个14亿人口的国家。从公共卫生的角度来看,这是一项惊人的成就。
We can get a sense of how strong something is by getting a sense of what sort of force is required to stop it, to borrow a Newtonian physics metaphor. COVID-19 requires a powerful force to stop. This is clear from the Chinese response. 3/
3、借用牛顿物理学的一个比喻,我们通过知道需要多少的作用力,才可以阻止某个物体,从而知道物体的强度。新冠病毒需要一个非常强的作用力才能阻止。从中国的反应中,我们可以清楚地看出这一点
Of course, China has a collectivist culture and an authoritarian government, both of which have allowed this enormous, widespread response. It is well suited to fight a pandemic, if it indeed takes in factual information and responds rationally. 4/
4、当然,中国有集体主义文化和威权政府,这两者都允许做出这种规模巨大和广泛的反应。 如果它确实接受事实性信息并作出合理反应的话,那么它非常适合对抗一场大流行病。
Ably assisted by some Chinese students in my lab #HNL, we quantified what Chinese government has been able to achieve. Beginning January 23, they imposed movement restrictions (typically with people staying at home, leaving just once a week) on provinces with >930M people! 5/
5、在我实验室的一些中国学生的帮助下,我们量化了中国ZF所取得的成就。从1月23日开始,他们在有9.3亿人口的省份实行活动限制(通常是人们呆在家里,每周只离开一次) !
The imposition of such public health measures on such a scale for such a duration has never been seen before. Here are links to the websites for many of the provinces into which China is divided, indicating what the rules for movement, imposed on 930M people, have been. 6/
6、在这么长的时间内实施这种规模的公共卫生措施,是前所未见的。这里有个中国大部分省份的网站链接,显示了对9.3亿人实行的活动限制。
Most Chinese cities are still implementing these types of quarantine at the community-level, now over *six weeks* in, depending on the severity level of the situation in their cities. This is called "closed-off management" 封闭管理 by the government and media).7/
7、大多数中国城市仍然在社区层面上实施这类隔离,目前已超过6周了,这取决于其城市情况的严重程度。这就是政府和媒体所称的“封闭管理”)。
Common features of "closed-off management” include: movement of people & vehicles is checked with an exit-entrance permit; body temperature at entrance of community is checked; disinfection of vehicles; food delivery; permits for only one person per household to go out. 8/
8、“封闭管理”的共同特点包括:对人员和车辆的活动进行出入许可证的检查;社区入口处体温检查;车辆消毒; 食物配送;每户只允许一人外出
The licenses for personal travel in China, being used by many millions of people, look like this. Some of them have a slogan “It is everyone’s responsibility to fight the virus.” 10/
10、中国数百万人使用的个人出行许可证是这样的。其中一些上面有标语: “与病毒作斗争是每个人的责任。”
In many cities, workers have been organized on a vast scale to deliver food to homes; residents can only go out to shop if they have a permit; & shops are open at limited times. In Chongqing, for example, only one person per household can go out shopping, only occasionally. 11/
11、在许多城市,大规模地组织工作人员给每户家里送食物;居民只有在得到许可的情况下才能出去购物; 商店只在有限的时间里营业。例如,在重庆,每个家庭只有一个人偶尔可以出去购物。
Schools have moved online. Jokes circulate: Parents complain to upstairs neighbors: "Could you please have your kids stop jumping? It is too noisy and our kids are taking an online math class now.” The neighbors reply: "Oh sorry! But my kids are taking a sports class now.” 12/
12、学校已经转移到了网上教学。有一些好玩的故事:家长们向楼上的邻居抱怨:“你能让你的孩子别跳了吗?太吵了,我们的孩子现在正在上数学网课。”楼上的邻居回答说:“哦,对不起!但我的孩子们现在正在上体育课呢。”
As a result, the Chinese have dropped the Re (the Effective Reproductive Rate) of COVID19 from ~3.8 new cases per extant case to ~0.32. When this number is below 1.0, the epidemic extinguishes (at least it will, for a while, within China). 13/
13、因此,中国人的新冠病毒有效繁殖率(Re)从每例3.8例下降到现有的0.32例。当这个数字低于1.0时,这种流行病就会消失(至少在一段时间内,在中国国内会消失)。
My lab, #HNL, has been studying this topic in another way, along with Chinese collaborators. We are also developing forecasting tools. NB (with gratitude). More about that in a future thread. 14/
14、我的实验室HNL和中国的合作者一直在用另一种方式研究这个课题。 我们还在开发预测工具。以后会有更多关于这个问题的讨论。
The Chinese government is slowly beginning to lift restrictions, but it is continuing to implement many quite inventive procedures, on a large scale. 15/
15、中国ZF现在正在缓慢地开始取消限制,但它仍在继续大规模地实施许多颇具创意的程序。 例如,北京一座大楼的电梯一次只能允许四个人,地板上用胶带做了标记。
The sign in the elevator says: "No more than four people in the elevator. Please be patient and wait for the next elevator.” Below, it says "Let's unite together to fight the virus in this special period." This type of collectivist slogan is very common throughout China now. 16/
16、电梯里的牌子上写着: “电梯内请不要超过四个人。 请您耐心等待下一部电梯。” 下面的小字写着:“非常时期,我们共克时艰。” 这种集体主义的口号,现在在中国非常普遍。
Currently, some provinces are adjusting their emergency level downwards according to their risk-level evaluations. As of March 2, 7 provinces adjusted to second-level, 9 provinces to third-level, 4 provinces to just the within-province emergency level. 17/
17、目前,一些省份正在根据风险水平,评估向下调整紧急级别。 截至3月2日,七个省调整为二级,九个省调整为三级,四个省仅调整为省内紧急级别。
China has a collectivist culture and an authoritarian government, so its success fighting COVID-19, while deeply impressive, will not be easy to reproduce elsewhere. The USA must prepare to combat the virus using tools at its disposal. It will not be easy. 18/
18、中国拥有集体主义文化和威权政府,因此它与新冠病毒的斗争,虽然取得了令人印象深刻的成功,但在其他地方却不容易复制。美国必须准备好利用手中的工具来对抗这种病毒。但这并不容易。
Here is a map and a timeline describing the imposition of "closed off management" restrictions at the provincial level across China as part of the effort to cope with #COVID19. 19/
19、这里有一张地图和时间表,描述了中国各省实施的“封闭管理”限制,作为对抗新冠病毒努力的一部分。
网友评论:
Timothy B. Lee
How credible are these statistics?
这些统计数据有多可信?
leo666
Don't believe it and please tell ppl around stay in America.
不要相信,请告诉周围的人要留在美国。
John Gabriel Decena
They are most probably telling the truth. Why? Some countries who maintain air travel with china is not recording infections from visitors from china and instead all comes from US, europe, japan and korea.
他们很可能说的是真的。为什么这么说?一些与中国保持航空旅行的国家,现在已经没有来自中国游客的感染记录了,而感染的记录全部来自美国、欧洲、日本和韩国。
BetaLibertarianNPC
So there are more cases in other countries than there are in China?
其他国家的病例比中国还多?
John Gabriel Decena
No, its just tells you those infected in china are accounted for unlike other countries that many roams around free.
不是,这只是告诉你,那些在中国被感染的人,不像其他国家那么多人到处游荡。
David Yang
Your work helped me understand importance of closing down in person school quickly and convince others it was the right move.
你的工作帮助我理解了迅速关闭私人学校的重要性,并让别人相信这是正确的举动。
Ginderella
And you believe the Chinese. That’s what’s amazing.
你竟然相信中国人。这才让人惊讶。
leo666
Firstly, the haters of China would say donot believe their number they are cover it up. Than they won't listen a single word afterwards.
首先,仇中的人会说,不要相信他们的数字,他们是在隐瞒事实。
之后,他们就不会再听你说一个字了。
Arthur Morgan
The rate of recovery is also high. 50,000 ppl have been recovered
治愈也很快,5万人都被治好了。
snakeboy
In recent months, we have endured all kinds of inconveniences: community access inspection, delivery and take out can only be delivered to the gate of the community, We must wear masks on the shopping malls and buses. Now, the costs may be worth it.
最近几个月,我们经历了各种不便:小区出入检查,送货和外卖只能送到小区大门口,我们在商场和公交车上必须戴口罩。现在,这些代价或许是值得的。
Alex
it would be nice if that authoritarian government used its power to shot down, permanently, all wet markets and wild life consumption
如果那个威权政府能用它的权力,永久性地打击所有的湿货市场和野生动物消费,那就太好了
Josh (Do you want to be smote!?) H
If any governmental response to COVID-19 involves human rights violations, you can NOT call that a successful response.
政府对新冠病毒的任何应对如果涉及侵犯人权,你就不能称之为成功的应对。
Eric Clark
Thanks for passing on the FACTS. My wife's parents in Nanning, Guangxi, have been quarantined since January 20th and have left only once to get food. At the entrance to where they live and the market they entered, they were tested. China is united in the fight, the US is not.
谢谢你(楼主)传达事实。我妻子在南宁的父母从1月20日起就被隔离了,只出去一次去买菜。在他们居住的地方和进入市场的入口处,他们要接受检测。中国在这场战斗中团结一致,而美国不是。
David S Pumpking
I can guarantee Trump will at least mention martial law in a press conference at some point.
Things would have to be grim for it to ever happen though.
我可以保证,特朗普至少会在某个时候的新闻发布会上提到戒严令。
然而,事情要达到严峻的程度,才会发生。
Matthew Hammond
I do not see this happening. I do see him working with governors to setup containment zones if it gets bad enough.
State and local governments will be what stops the virus from spreading.
我不认为这会发生。我确实看到他和州长们合作,如果情况变得太糟糕的话,他们会建立隔离区的。
州政府和地方政府将阻止病毒的传播。
Razor
Also India, despite its massive population, seems to have gained an upper hand on the virus’ spread.
此外,尽管印度人口众多,但似乎在遏制病毒传播方面,占了上风。
बैन डौन्नल्ली
saxbend
US got a huge military. They can nuke their own cities until every last potential American virus victim is dead.
美国有一支庞大的军队。他们可以用核武器攻击自己的城市,直到最后一个潜在的美国病例死亡。
bibbleco
None of the above will be possible in the US
以上这些在美国都不可能实现的
Julie Waters
During WWII everyone obey’d the govt to fight the bad guys & yet we’re not a collectivist culture.That level of cooperation couldn’t happen now. No agreement on who the bad guys are. Not even a virus.
在第二次世界大战期间,每个人都服从政府的命令去攻击敌人,然而我们不是一个集体主义文化。这种程度的合作现在不可能发生。对于谁是敌人都没有一致的意见。甚至连病毒都不确定。
Dan Miller
This all assumes you’re getting accurate & factual information out of China. Big big assumption
这一切说法,都是假设你从中国获得了准确和真实的信息。很大的假设。
Petropouliotiz
What could be the competitive advantages or the extra tools of the west (USA , Europe) in comparison to China?
与中国相比,西方(美国、欧洲)的竞争优势或额外的工具是什么?
peter bray
Are you implementing extensive precautions in your lab? All online? Because in the US as you suggest it will presumably take an individualistic but equally robust response.
你们是否在实验室里采取了普遍的预防措施?都是网上的吗?因为在美国,正如你所建议的那样,大概会采取个人主义但同样强有力的应对措施。
Alpaca
what if this is just like a really bad flu and nothing bad happens?
如果这只是一场非常严重的流感,并没有什么不好的事情发生呢?
Koen Hufkens, PhD
Great on social of the response. I fear the worst for the US in particular, and Italy (brave to lock down) might come of easy in comparison.
很棒的社会应对。我很担心美国发生最糟糕的情况,而相比之下,意大利(敢于封锁)可能会变得更好。
Dee Kay
It would be great if the US cared about their people more than they care about money. They would be preparing people for this to happen. Instead they are trying to keep the people buying. Go buy some canned goods. Go buy some toilet paper. Do you have soap to wash away your sin
如果美国更关心它的人民而不是关心金钱,那就太好了。他们会让人们为这种情况的发生做好准备。相反,他们试图让人们继续购买。买罐头,买卫生纸。你们有肥皂洗去自己身上的罪恶吗?
Tim D
You didn't mention another important reason why the measures taken by China and Korea seem to be effective is that Asians tend to have savings and rarely live on paycheck by paycheck, therefore they can afford to self quarantine for weeks. Many Americans can't.
你没有提到另一个重要原因,为什么中国和韩国采取的措施似乎很有效,因为亚洲人往往有储蓄的习惯,很少靠薪水生活,因此他们可以自我隔离数周。但许多美国人做不到。
Bruce Robinson
Your solution? -Implement communism in US? Seems to be what you are saying.
你的解决方案?在美国实行共产主义?似乎这就是你所说的。
Civic Networks
It will be impossible with people equating a quarantine with nuclear weapons. You rhetoric is misleading and deadly.
Trump just held a press conference promoting cruise travel!
We live in a land where no one wants to do ANYTHING at all. Your telling them that's ok.
人们不可能把隔离等同于核武器的。你的花言巧语既误导又致命。
特朗普刚刚举行了一场宣传邮轮旅游的新闻发布会!
我们生活在一个没有人愿意做任何事情的地方。 你告诉他们没关系。
Laura Shin
Would be great to look more closely at how South Korea managed it because they are a democracy
如果能更仔细地观察一下韩国是如何处理的,那就太好了,因为他们是一个民主国家
Talk Shit Get Hit
If you look into SK, look into the Shincheonji cult and how they played a massive part in spreading the disease in the country.
如果你调查一下韩国,就会发现新天地邪教,以及他们是如何在韩国传播这种疾病的。
ninety-nine spelled in an edgy way
Korea have also taken extreme measures like shutting down businesses, curfews etc. The government also sent meals to people who were quarantined so that they would not have to leave. jail time for breaking quarantine.
韩国还采取了一些极端措施,如关闭企业、宵禁等。政府还给那些被隔离的人送饭,这样他们就不用出去了。还有人因为违反隔离规定而入狱。
HoneyB
Can you even imagine the chaos if USA tried to tell citizens they were quarantined and not to leave their houses... half of them would come out shooting! People would be shooting people... military would get involved... it would be shootout at the O K Corral!Total bedlam!
你能想象,如果美国要求公民隔离并且不要离开他们的房子,会产生大多的混乱吗?一半的人会拿起枪来!人们互相射击...然后军队介入... 这将会是牧场枪战!全乱套了!
vergilus
No test no cases. A simple check of case number is meaningless. You should check up whether the hospital are fully supplied for tests.
没有检测就没有病例。简单的查看感染人数是没有意义的。你应该检查一下医院的检测试剂是否供应充足。
Blake Crosley
My wife is Chinese and her family lives in Shanghai. The Chinese government pulled out all the stops and risked economic stability to fight the spread to save lives. I’m not sure we’ll do the same.
我的妻子是中国人,她家住在上海。中国ZF不惜一切代价,冒着经济不稳定的危险,与疫情蔓延作战,挽救生命。我不确定我们是否也能这么做。
j1aeymmbn6
Spot on.
China's actions were remarkable even draconian. It's not at all clear that western societies will take such steps, and all almost certain that they will move more slowly.
If what China is doing is required for mitigation, the U.S. will be very seriously challenged.
完全正确。
中国的行动非同凡响,甚至是严苛。 目前还不清楚西方社会是否会采取这些措施,但几乎可以肯定的是,他们的行动会更加缓慢。
如果中国所做的是为了缓解病毒扩散,那么美国将面临严峻的挑战了。
agent_flounder
Keep in mind that their response went far beyond just lockdowns.
They made use of wechat and other phone tech and big data analysis for contact tracing, they implemented checks as part of transportation infrastructure, they repurposed entire hospitals for COVID-19 care and left others for regular care, they built numerous temporary facilities for COVID-19, they coordinated postponing elective surgeries and such, in some places they converted to virtual/video interaction between patients and doctors, they coordinated food delivery to those quarantined, and so forth.
It helps that they have more ventilators and ECMO devices per hospital than most countries, too.
It was a massive scale coordinated effort and their healthcare system seems to be rather adept at handling such a major emergency.
要记住,他们的反应远远不止封锁这么简单。
他们利用微信和其他电话技术以及大数据分析来追踪接触者,他们把检查作为交通基础设施的一部分来实施,他们重新调整了全医院的用途,以便治疗新冠肺炎,而把其他医院进行常规护理,他们为新冠肺炎建立了许多临时的设施,他们协调推迟选择性手术等等,在一些地方,他们把病人和医生之间的互动用视频代替,给隔离的人送食物,等等。
与大多数国家相比,他们每家医院拥有更多的呼吸机和体外膜肺氧合设备,这一点也很有帮助。
这是一次大规模的协调行动,他们的医疗系统似乎很善于处理这样一种重大紧急情况。
Gaiaaxiom
They did all this and the USA will send it right back before long
他们做了所有这一切,美国将很快就会把病毒送回去的。
CanidaeUngulatesKit
As it should be. I will trade fighting off a nasty virus with personal liberty any day.
应该这样做,我随时都可以牺牲个人自由,来抵抗这讨厌的病毒。
DesertBubble
But capital don't want to.
但是资本不想这么做。
per_os
Yeah arresting those doctors and punishing them to cover up the initial outbreak, they really deserve some kudos
是的,逮捕那些医生并惩罚他们来隐瞒最初的爆发,他们真的该赞扬。
PVLVCE
Shit all I wanna know is how many cases our government is covering up lol.
草,我只想知道我们政府隐瞒了多少病例,哈哈。
AtaraxicMegatron
Everyone saying China's numbers couldn't have dropped so low should read this.
每个说中国的数字不可能下降到这么低的人都应该看看这个。
fortevn
“Fucking ccp propaganda” in 3... 2... 1....
“该死的GCD宣传”倒计时 3... 2... 1..
go_half_the_way
They can both be commended for their aggressive action to contain while we question the incredible drop in some of the regions from Mid Feb onwards.
他们的积极行动是值得称赞,但我们质疑从2月中旬开始,一些地区的病例惊人的下降。
Kittenscute
Yeah, it's hilarious to assume underreporting and taking good containment measures are mutually exclusive concepts.
好吧,认为少报和采取良好的遏制措施是相互排斥的概念,是很滑稽的。
D6Desperados
Meanwhile in the US, we have people ignoring quarantine to go to restaurants and dancing. We are proper fucked.
与此同时,在美国,人们无视隔离,去餐馆去跳舞。我们真的要完蛋了。
packersrule2000
It was only a school dance, what could go wrong?
那只是学校的舞会,还能出什么岔子呢?
krcub
It will never happen in the USA. If you don’t quarantine & contain, you’re gonna have a bad time.
这做法在美国永远不会发生的。如果你不隔离和控制,那么你就会有一段糟糕的时间了。
thisismydcaccount
South Korea is actually doing a very good job with mass testing and tracking.
But that requires having an administration that is willing to acknowledge the magnitude of the issue and aggressively spend the money required to contain it.
实际上,韩国在大规模测试和跟踪方面做得非常好。
但这需要政府愿意承认问题的严重性,并积极使用必要的资金来控制。
Blixarxan
I have enough pizza and french fries to get me by until it's over.
我有足够多的披萨和炸薯条来维持生活,直到疫情结束。
bbbbbbbbbb99
Basically we in the west are screwed.
基本上我们西方人都完蛋了。
greatwallclimber
CCP value stability over everything. For them, economical grows in of vital importance to secure stability. The fact CCP chose to stop the whole county's economical activities to contain this virus tells you that they believe this virus has a better chance of overthrowing them.
GCD把稳定看得比一切都重要。对他们来说,经济增长对安全稳定至关重要。GCD选择停止整个城市的经济活动来遏制这种病毒的事实告诉你,他们相信这种病毒对其地位有危险。
lotusvu
I don’t think the CCP is concerned about being overthrown. I’m surprised that they took such drastic steps to protect their citizens’ health.
我不认为GCD会担心它的地位。我很惊讶他们会采取这么激烈的措施,来保护他们公民的健康。
CanidaeUngulatesKit
I don’t think that we are much different, other than as a society we chose personal liberty over a collective. It’s ok, everyone can be different, but generally, Americans would choose to fight a virus, than lose that liberty.
我不认为我们有什么不同,除了作为一个社会,我们选择个人自由而不是集体自由。没关系,每个人都可以有所不同,但总的来说,美国人宁愿选择对抗病毒,也不愿失去自由。
Evilshmear
You mean choose to fight the virus unorganized and cheering the "liberty" of everyone for themselves.
你的意思是选择没头脑地对抗病毒,为每个人的“自由”欢呼。
Evilshmear
I see American value individualism to the point of religious. The fact is if left unchecked, health system will be crushed by the huge number of patients needing intense care. And your view seemed to ignore the fact that both Italy and SK are under serious travel restrictions and lockdown.which brings me the question, do you think have taken the action of serious quarantine. Both Italy and SK are authoritarian. Or it's just China.
我认为美国把个人主义的价值观上升到了宗教的程度。 事实上,如果不加以控制,卫生系统将被大量需要密集护理的病人压垮。你的观点似乎忽视了意大利和韩国都有严厉的旅行限制和封锁这一事实。这样我就有个问题了,你认为你们已经采取了严重的隔离措施吗?意大利和韩国都是专制国家,还是说只有中国?
lotusvu
We haven’t seen the outcomes of Italy’s and South Korea’s minimal quarantine efforts yet, Only time will tell. The fact that China committed short term economic suicide to impose such drastic measures to contain this says something about how serious their concerns of long term effects of COVID19 on their society and economy. Whatever they were trying to prevent must outweigh the sacrifices they made in committing short term economic suicide. I don’t think this has anything to do with being totalitarian,now that we see how western societies are reacting to this despite an abundance of information released from China.
China did bought the world some time.. now we are witnessing many countries wasting it!
我们还没有看到意大利和韩国最低限度隔离措施的结果,只有时间才能证明。 事实上,中国采取了几乎是短期经济的自杀行为,实施这么激烈的措施来遏制这种情况,这说明了他们严重担忧新冠病毒对他们的社会和经济的长期影响。 无论他们试图阻止什么,都必须超过他们在短期经济自杀中所做出的牺牲。我不认为这和极权主义有什么关系,现在我们看到了西方社会对此的反应,尽管中国已经发布了大量的信息。
中国确实为世界争取了一些时间... 而现在,我们正在目睹许多国家在浪费它!
Account654Z
The US needs to shutdown travel like china did
美国需要像中国那样关闭旅游业
cagirlgapeach
What china did would never happen in the US cause, Merica!! There are an immense amount of dumb rednecks that would not listen just cause “this is Merica and I do what i want.”
中国所做的,绝不会发生在美国上,我大美利坚! !有大量的愚蠢红脖子不听劝,只是因为“这是美国,我想做什么就做什么。”
sleepingchypre
Because we need to respect human rights and freedom :)
因为我们需要尊重人权和自由:)
lotusvu
In China, only the army has guns!
在中国,只有军队才有枪!
stripy1979
China did a great job. Western countries need to take actions to enable something like this
中国做得很好,西方国家需要采取行动来实现像这样的目标。
Seawench41
We wont. It will rip through our communities and leave thousands dead. People will blame the government and privatized healthcare. Then we will vote in another Republican and keep doing the same shit. I hate this country.
我们做不到的。病毒将撕裂我们的社区,造成无数人死亡。 人们会指责政府和私有化的医疗保健。 然后我们会投票给另一个共和党人,继续做同样的事情。 我讨厌这个国家。
stripy1979
We are not all Americans.l :)
I am from Australia but like you I am not hopeful
我们不都是美国人
我来自澳大利亚,但和你一样,我不抱什么希望
Seawench41
Lol, fair enough! My American ego assumed everyone on Reddit is American XD
哈哈,很公平!我的美国情节让我认为红迪网上的每个人都是美国人 XD
rararamamaa
Im confused, Is COVID lethal or not? I get it that its highly contagious but the death rate is low?Why is everyone worried? If its not, why are millions of people on lock down.
I read some comments saying cured patients gets permanent lung damage, but I couldn't find any reliable sources. Im just trying to have a better view of the situation.
我很困惑,新冠病毒到底是不是致命的?我知道它的传染性很强,但是死亡率是否很低? 为什么每个人都在担心? 如果不是,为什么数以百万计的人被封锁起来。
我看到一些评论说治愈的病人会得到永久性的肺损伤,但我找不到任何可靠的来源。我只是想对形势有个更好的看法。
xPlasma
Pneumonia can cause permanent lung damage. Covid-19 can give you pnumonia. Next, covid-19 is very lethal. 2-4% of people who have gotten it have died. For reference the flu kills something like 0.1% of people who get it.
Expect millions dead worldwide.
肺炎可导致永久性肺损伤。 新冠病毒会让你得肺炎。其次,也非常致命。2-4%的感染者死亡。作为参考,流感杀死了大约0.1% 的感染者。
预计全球将有数百万人死亡。
rararamamaa
Thats not good. How would it effect local businesses? Is it wise or paranoid to stock up food and other essentials?
这可不妙啊。这将如何影响当地企业? 囤积食物和其他必需品是明智还是过火了?
Lore86
I'm Italian so I can tell you what's happening here, first of all this isn't like a tsunami that hits and goes away, once you get it you keep spreading it to others long before you even know you got it, when the symptoms start to show up in a community it's too late to contain the contagion because at that point it's everywhere and the number of people that starts to fall ill quickly escalate out of control, a decent amount of people have to be hospitalized but you need an extraordinary amount of hospital resources to be able to face the request, in terms of rooms, machines and personnel that at the same time starts to get the virus as well, at that point the hospitals aren't safe anymore, you need other structures to carry on with the screenings, and so on. As it starts to spread to people the tragedy starts to unfold
我是意大利人,所以我可以告诉你这里发生了什么,首先,这不像海啸袭击然后消失,一旦你患病了,你就会在你知道生病的很久之前,就已经把病毒传播给其他人了,当症状开始出现在一个社区时,控制传染已经太晚了,因为在那个时候,已经传播开了。但是你需要大量的医院资源来面对这样的需求,比如房间、机器和人员,同时这些资源也开始感染病毒,不再安全了,你需要其他机构进行筛选,等等。 当它开始向人们传播,悲剧开始了。
dzm29
Plus people get quarantined on short or no notice. I'm alone so I've stocked up.
另外,人们会在短时间内或没有通知的情况下被隔离。 我一个人,所以我储备了一些。
guanyu1995
It’s not for most people, but still much worse than flu, and very dangerous for elders.
In China, death rate in Wuhan than otherwhere, cause the healthcare system is totally overwhelmed and many people cannot get proper care.
Tbh, it’s impossible for us to handle it as good as China did, and I never expect that, and now it’s a definite failure for containing the virus. But the core mission now is to make the spread speed as slow as possible. If there’s no city like Wuhan in US, I would say people don’t need to be nervous about it.
这不适用于大多数人,但仍然比流感严重得多,对老年人非常危险。
在中国,武汉的死亡率比其他地方高,因为医疗系统完全不堪重负,许多人得不到适当的照顾。
说实话,我们不可能像中国那样处理得那么好,我从来没有想到会是这样,现在控制病毒肯定会失败了。 但现在的核心任务是,尽可能地减缓传播速度。如果美国没有像武汉这样的城市,我会说人们没有必要对此感到紧张。
Asikagee
Then the costs of lockdown is equal for everyone , but the threaten of contagion risk life by aged or vulnerable one unfairly. What China did is sacrifice whole to protect weaknesses so strict measures were accepted by society in fast while Western value this base on average risk for individuals. Mask not only protect you but majority if everyone wears.
封锁的代价对每个人来说都是一样的,但是老年人和弱势群体受到的传染风险威胁是不平等的。 中国所做的是牺牲整体来保护弱点,因此严格的措施很快被社会所接受,而西方则根据个人的平均风险来评估。 口罩不仅能保护你,还能保护大多数人,如果每个人都戴上的话。
bluewhitecup
look at all Chinese and Italians commenting describing their situations. That is exactly what will happen to the US and others unless we impose Draconian measures now.
看看所有中国人和意大利人在描述他们处境时的评论。 除非我们现在采取严厉的措施,否则这正是美国和其它国家将要面临的情况。
HorseGoneWild
I saw shit tons of comments in Chinese news pieces back in late Jan, saying this virus only infect Asians. This is a biological weapons deplored by the US.
truce, we are all in the together.
一月下旬,我在中国的新闻中看到大量的评论,说这种病毒只感染亚洲人。这是美国部署的一种生物武器。
休战吧,我们都在同一条船上。
Mr.K
Evolution has proved a lot of times to be true. The most fit it's the one that survives. Wouldn't be ironic if after all this passes China succeds and USA crumbles down just because the first ones can take decisions not thinking in the market but in the greater good?
进化论已经被证明在很多时候是正确的。那个幸存下来的就是最适合的。如果在这场疫情过去之后,中国成功的幸存下来了,而美国溃败了,难道不够讽刺吗?就因为前者能够做出的决定,不是为了市场,而是为了更大的利益。