[2020-03-29]你认为新冠疫情会在美国蔓延到无法控制的程度吗？

Molly Fischer , Self-Studying Covid-19 since Dec.
I hate to tell you this, my friend, but it already has.
There is too much travel in this country for it to be contained. If they wanted to contain it they should have stopped all travel the second China knew about the virus in mid-January.
The CDC and the WHO has handled this very poorly from the beginning. It was clear right away that asymptomatic spreading was possible and that the incubation period was longer than 14 days, but I guess health officials never got the memo.
They also distributed faulty test kits. Many of those kits gave false negatives and the people were not required to quarantine.
The only reason it looks like our case number is low is because we haven't been testing everyone that might have it. Again, blame it on the test kit issues.

Molly Fischer ，自12月以来自学新型冠状病毒知识
虽然我不想这么说，我的朋友，但这情况已经发生了。
这个国家旅行的人太多了，无法控制。 如果他们想控制疫情，他们应该在1月中旬中国得知病毒后，立即停止一切旅行。
疾病预防控制中心和世卫组织从一开始就处理得非常糟糕。很明显，无症状传播是有可能的发生的，而且疾病潜伏期超过14天，但是我猜卫生官员从来没有收到过这个备忘录。
他们还分发了有缺陷的检测试剂。这些检测试剂带来了很多假阴性，人们并没有被隔离。
看起来我们现在病例数量低的唯一原因是因为我们还没有检测每一个可能患有这种疾病的人。重申一遍，这要归咎于检测试剂的问题。

And for some reason basic measures are not being taken. There should be emergency broadcasts going periodically telling people to avoid social gathering unless necessary, to limit contact, and to stay home and self quarantine if even slightly sick. They should have case tracing yelling everybody in the area where positive cases have been identified and where those people visited. That way the healthy can avoid those places until after disinfecting measures have taken place.
And most importantly, local governments should be sending employees to disinfect common areas (grocery stores, gas stations, parks, crosswalk buttons, county buildings, courthouses). This is a very effective, very easy step that is easy to implement and I'm surprised no one has done this yet.
Spread is inevitable, but measures can be taken to lessen the burden on our healthcare system.

由于某种原因，没有被采取基本的防护措施。 应该定期播放紧急广播，告诉人们除非必要，避免社交聚会，限制接触，如果有轻微的症状就呆在家里自我隔离。他们应该追踪已经确认阳性的病例和那些人到过的地方，对每个人发出警告。这样，健康的人可以避免去这些地方，直到消毒了。
最重要的是，地方政府应该派员工去消毒公共场所(杂货店、加油站、公园、人行横道按钮、县政府大楼、法院)。这是一个非常有效，而且非常容易实现的措施，我很惊讶还没有开始这样做。
是不可能避免传播的，但是我们可以采取措施减轻我们医疗系统的负担。

Yao Zhan , Trader at Index Trading
I am afraid that it will.
* It is highly infectious - more so that the common flu.
* The US doesn’t have the system in place to handle such an epidemic. There is no universal health care so people who first contract the disease will most likely attempt to brush it off as a flu or harmless cold. Afterall, the US President doesn’t think it is a big problem. Listen to him. He is so ignorant he did not even know people died from the flu. Now he thinks he has an innate ability to understand the issue stemming from his narcissistic mentality.
In 2018, President Trump also fired the entire Pandemic team that was set up by the previous administration to deal with such a problem and has not replaced it with anything until recently. Even when news of the outbreak in China, nothing was done except to dismiss the epidemic there and to reassure American voters that they had nothing to worry about. Trump repeatedly lied or made false statements about the problem. The people he hired do not dare to question him. So far, he has fired anyone who disagreed with him.
How are you going to test people?

Yao Zhan 指数交易公司的交易员
恐怕会控制不了。
* 非常强的传染性，较普通流感更强。
* 美国没有应对这种流行病的系统。 目前还没有全民医保，所以第一次感染这种疾病的人很可能会试图把它当作流感或无害的感冒而置之不理。 毕竟，美国总统认为这不是一个大问题。 听他的。他太无知了，甚至不知道有人死于流感。 现在，自恋的他认为自己有一种与生俱来的能力来解决这个问题。
2018年，特朗普总统还解雇了上届政府为应对这一问题而成立的全部流行病小组，直到最近才用任何东西取代它。即使在中国爆发疫情的消息传出后，美国政府也没有采取任何行动，而是对那里的疫情置之不理，并向美国选民保证，他们没有必要担心。 特朗普一再对这个问题撒谎或做出虚假声明。他雇佣的人不敢去质疑他。 到目前为止，他已经解雇了所有与他意见相左的人。
你要如何检测人们？

How are you going to treat and care for the victims or does America expect them to deal with it and self-quarrantine? Who will pay for it? America disdains public health care and prefers to rely on private for profit enterprises. How do you expect businesses whose main goal in life is to make a profit to care for you or to put your health as their priority? Its all over dollars and cents to them. They don’t care if thousands of Americans die, its not in their DNA to care.
Considering the high cost of medical care, you are going to find a lot of American workers ignoring their symptoms, “tough up”, and going to work just as the President suggested. The serious effects of the illness only arise after several weeks by which time they could have infected hundreds of other people. That is the problem with pandemics.

你打算如何对待和照顾受害者，还是说美国希望他们自己处理这个问题，并自我隔离？ 谁会为此买单？ 美国蔑视公共医疗保健，更愿意依赖私营企业。 你如何期望那些主要目标是赚钱的企业会关心你，或者把你的健康作为他们的主要目标？ 对他们来说，这一切都是为了钱。 他们不在乎成千上万的美国人是否会死，他们的基因里没有这种东西。
考虑到高昂的医疗费用，你会发现许多美国工人忽视他们的症状，“坚强起来”并按照总统的建议继续工作。 这种疾病在几周之后才会出现严重的影响，而到那时他们可能已经感染了其他数百人。这就是大流行的问题了。

Dealing with this problem requires a great deal of discipline, rigorous attention to detail and a supreme effort. But you are being led by a President who is a 6 times bankrupt, a failed casino owner, a businessman who cheats his workers of their wage who just put a religious fanatic (Pence) who failed to stop the spread of another epidemic in his time as governor. Did he think thoughts and prayers would stop it?

处理这种情况需要严格的纪律，严格关注细节和付出极大的努力。 但是你们正在被一个破产六次的总统、一个失败的赌场老板、一个骗取工人工资的商人领导着，这个商人刚刚把一个宗教狂热分子(彭斯)安插进去，他在担任州长期间未能阻止另一种流行病的蔓延。他认为祷告和思想可以阻止这场疫情吗？

James McInnes
Yes. This is already happening. We are taking measures to stymie it’s transmission (letting people know that it’s out there and easy to catch, telling people to self-quarantine and work from home if they feel ill, to wash hands, etc.), but it’s still spreading and popping up in unexpected locations. At the time of this writing, there are outbreaks in 35 states.
That said, “uncontrolled” doesn’t mean that everyone’s going to get it, just that the window for being to contain it is closing, and the it’s going to take its natural course. Epidemiologists estimate 40–70% of people in the US will probably eventually catch it over the course of the next year, but that’s making some assumptions based on what we have observed so far with regard to transmission patterns and the course of the illness. For example, in several other countries, they test not only sick people, but those that have come in contact with them (the reason the US reports higher mortality is because we undercount those that get it but are well), and we know that many carriers are never even aware that they have it.
We’ll see what happens.

James McInnes
是的。这已经在发生了。 我们正在采取措施阻止病毒的传播(让人们知道在外面很容易被感染，告诉人们如果感到不舒服就自我隔离，在家工作，注意洗手等等) ，但它仍在传播，并出现在意料之外的地方。我在写这回答的时候，已经有35个州爆发了疫情。
也就是说，虽然“不受控制”并不意味着每个人都会得病，只是控制它的窗口期正在关闭，它将自然而然的传播。流行病学家估计，美国在明年40%至70%的人最终可能会感染这种疾病，但这是基于我们迄今观察到的有关传播模式和病程的一些假设。例如，在其他几个国家，他们不仅检测病人，而且还检测那些与他们有过接触的人(美国报告死亡率较高的原因是因为我们低估了那些得病但身体健康的人) ，而且我们知道，许多携带者甚至从来没有意识到他们得了这种病。
我们拭目以待吧。

Joseph Farrar , studied Social Psychology at University of North Carolina at Charlotte (1992)
All anyone can do, with Globalism and the free society of the U.S., is to slow the spread of Covid-19. America has done that, big time, by her leaders limiting travel from highly infected nations quickly.
Once something this transmittable starts, it keeps traveling the globe as long as creatures it can infect are alive, like our “Flu” being the deadly Influenza of 100 years ago. It is still loose, and this virus will be similar.
It is uncontrollable now, and we likely had some with it in December. Remember, some people never show symptoms or even feel bad to speak of, but they can still spread it.
Good news though. Johns-Hopkins’ study showed the U.S. was better prepared for dealing with this pandemic than any other nation. Plus, with China travel being cut off so fast,virus infiltration of the U.S. has been slow

Joseph Farrar 北卡罗来纳大学夏洛特分校社会心理学专业(1992年)
在全球主义和美国的自由社会里，所有人都能做的就是减缓新冠病毒的蔓延。 美国在很大程度上已经做到了这点，她的领导人迅速限制了来自高度感染国家的旅行。
一旦这种病毒开始传播，只要它能感染的生物还活着，它就会继续在全球传播，就像我们的“流感”是100年前的致命流感一样。它现在依旧不受控制，而这种病毒会是类似的情况。
现在已经无法控制了，而且我们可能在12月份就已经扩散了。 记住，有些人从来没有表现出症状，甚至连感觉不好都没有，但他们仍然可以传播这病毒。
不过好消息是。 约翰-霍普金斯大学的研究表明，美国比其他任何国家都更有能力应对这场流行病。 此外，由于切断中国的旅游非常迅速，美国的病毒扩散一直很缓慢（译者注：这是早前的回答）

We are going to be way better off than we might have been, and our economy is going to bounce back fast, since we are intentionally repressing it.
Also, this short artificial recession may completely eliminate our need for a growth adjustment recession (to enable us to grow further, etc.) to happen until well into President Trump’s second term, if not a couple of years later. So, that’s pretty cool.
yeah, the virus has had its spread controlled, which was the extent of what was doable.

我们的经济状况会比原来好得多，而且我们的经济会迅速反弹，因为我们有意抑制经济的增长。
此外，这种短暂的人为衰退，可能会完全消除我们需要对经济增长的调整衰退(使我们的经济能够进一步增长等等)，直到特朗普总统的第二个任期结束，如果不是几年后的话。所以，这挺酷的。
是的，病毒的传播已经得到控制，这程度是能做到的。

Jhon Evenst Douyon , studied at Latin American School of Medicine (2008)
No, I don't think so!
It's never too late for the government to do the right thing
A national lockdown where everyone stays home for at least one week. It means you limit the dissemination at least for one week just enough time to get control of the situation and open more and more site for testing, special temporary hospital to manage the complicated cases. Just enough time to get equipment and ventilators machine to save life.
We need to decrease the flow of patients arriving in the emergency rooms, we need to relieve the load on the medical staff and suppliers. We need to be able to count on some students close to graduation to support the staff in case.
The American people is strong/Patriot enough to know together they ll win, put politics aside and work together to reassure the people.
Yes, we can stop it

Jhon Evenst Douyon ，曾就读于拉丁美洲医学院(2008年)
不，我不这么认为！政府做正确的事的话永远不会太晚。
全国戒严，每个人至少呆在家里一个星期。这意味着你要限制传播至少一个星期，刚好有足够的时间来控制局势，并且开放越来越多的检测场所，用专门的临时医院来处理复杂的病例。刚好够时间去买设备和呼吸机来挽救生命。
我们需要减少进入急诊室的病人的流量，我们需要减轻医务人员和供应商的负担。 我们需要依靠一些即将毕业的学生，来支援工作人员，以防万一。
美国人民是坚强的爱国者，他们知道他们将一起赢得胜利，把政治放在一边吧，一起努力让人民安心。
是的，我们可以阻止它。

Brandi McDonnell , Information Systems Technologist
I believe there is sufficient evidence that it is already at the community transmission point in the US.
Which strain is most active might make the difference. If the S strain that isn’t as virulent but isn’t as deadly becomes the main infection the US might do okay. The L strain is more virulent and more deadly, and appears to be what is in Seattle.
Maybe you get lucky and the community transmission is the S strain and you manage to keep the L strain more contained until most of the vulnerable contract the less deadly one. However I do strongly believe the US has already lost the isolation/containment battle and the social construct of the US makes it profoundly unlikely to get it back under control. The US lost the battle to contain it before it arrived.

Brandi McDonnell 、信息系统技术专家
我相信有足够的证据表明，它已经在美国的社区传播了。
不同菌株的活跃程度可能会产生差异。如果是毒性没那么强，没那么致命的S型菌株成为主要感染，美国可能会做得很好。而L型菌株毒性更强，致命性也更强，似乎与西雅图的情况相同。
也许你很幸运，社区里传播的是S型病毒，然后你努力将L型病毒控制好，直到大多数易受感染的人感染上不那么致命的病毒。不过，我确实坚信，美国已经无法控制了，而美国的社会结构使其极不可能重新控制住。在病毒到来之前，美国就已经输掉了控制它的战斗了。

Martie Hoekmeijer , Statistical Programming
Florida allowing spring break was the perfect example of how and why this virus will spread to the masses. It was irresponsible behavior for the parents, children, and governor. Now all those kids will return home to their respective states and pass the virus on there. Even states like California, New York, and Illinois in lockdown will see a resurgence in cases despite every effort to reduce the spread, thanks to a few selfish teens.

Martie Hoekmeijer 、统计编程
佛罗里达州允许春假，是这种病毒如何以及为什么会传播到大众的一个完美的例子。这是对父母、孩子和州长来说都是不负责任的行为。现在，所有这些孩子都将回到各自的州，并在那里开始传播病毒。 即使是像加利福尼亚、纽约和伊利诺伊这样的已经封锁的州，也会因为一些自私的青少年而让病例数再次上升，尽管他们已经竭尽全力减少传播。

Fritz Fred , mba Business, Harvard University (1990)
it has already spread worldwide.
the situation was handled in the most unprofessional way in panic mode.
as far as we know from leading virologists: it does not kill young and healty people. if you are under 60 and you do not have a compromised immune system due to pre-conditions, it will not do any harm to your health. you will most likely experience weak flu-like symptoms only.

Fritz Fred ，哈佛大学商学院 工商管理硕士(1990)
病毒已经传播到世界各地了。
这种情况是因为用最不专业的方式，在恐慌状态下处理造成的。
据病毒学家所知，新冠病毒不会杀死年轻健康的人。如果你年龄在60岁以下，并且没有免疫系统受损，新冠病毒不会对你的健康造成任何伤害。 你很可能只会出现轻微的类似流感症状。

Wayne Yu , Art of Med/Surgical Healing, Tech Innovator
Nobody can be certain but to model using known data. Based on what China had to do start to contain it and the human-political variables of each country, here the US specifically with VP Mike Pence being put in charge, we’ll just have to wait and see. His track record in handling the AIDS and Hepatitis C epidemics whilst being the governor of Indiana does not give confidence.
Mike Pence is exactly the wrong guy for this job

Wayne Yu 医学艺术 / 外科治疗，技术创新者
除了使用已知数据进行建模，否则没有人能够确定。基于中国必须采取的措施，以及各国的人文政治变量，尤其是美国副总统迈克•彭斯掌权的情况，我们只能拭目以待。作为印第安纳州州长卫生组织成员，他在处理艾滋病和丙型肝炎疫情方面的记录并不能给人信心。
迈克 · 彭斯完全不适合做这项工作。

Patrick Cusack , IT Manager at Large Software Company
The critical initial stages were not managed well, thus in all likelihood the virus is already widespread. Please don’t panic, be sensible with hygiene and look out for older citizens. Panic is useful if a tiger is chasing you, but in the case of this virus it is not helpful.

Patrick Cusack ，大型软件公司的 IT 经理
关键的初始阶段没有得到很好的处理，因此病毒很可能已经广泛传播了。请不要恐慌，注意卫生，照顾好老年人。 如果有老虎在追你，恐慌是有用的，但是对于这种病毒来说，恐慌是没有用的。

Anonymous
Yes and Capitalism and greed is spreading it.
The cruise ship that had people with the coronavirus was sent out again with thousands of new passengers and people are infected again.

Anonymous
是的，资本主义和贪婪正在让它传播。
曾经载有这种新冠病毒患者的游轮再次开出来经营，载有数千名新的乘客，人们再次被感染。

David Miles , former 77 years experience (1943-2020)
It will continue to spread for the near future. However do not panic. All you need to do is follow the news and do what the people at the Center for Disease Control (CDC) say. They are working twenty four, seven to find an antidote. It may take a short time but be assured they will succeed.

David Miles 、77年人生经验(1943-2020)
在不久的将来，它将继续蔓延。 但是不要恐慌。 你所需要做的就是关注新闻，并且按照疾病控制中心的人说的去做。 他们全天候工作，研究病毒的疫苗。这可能需要一小段时间，但他们一定会成功的。

Ulla Ida
It already has, especially in Seattle, where there have been 10 cases with a death rate of 100 percent; although the estimated mortality rate is around 3%. The disease will only spread and the number of cases will multiply every month.
Stay safe!

Ulla Ida
这已经发生了，特别是在西雅图，那里已经有10个病例，死亡率为100%，尽管估计死亡率在3% 左右。这种病毒只会继续蔓延，每个月的病例数量将会成倍增加。
注意安全！

Vincent Licari , Carpenter at Self-Employment (1999-present)
I don’t see how it won’t, supposedly the incubation period is two weeks and from what I’m hearing it’s transmitable during incubation. So think about how many people you come in contact with in two weeks, how many people each of those people come in contact with. I’m expecting it to be wide spread in big cities like New York, we don’t seem to be changing our daily routine much so

Vincent Licari ，木匠(1999年至今)
我不明白这怎么不会发生，据说病毒潜伏期是两个星期，而且据我所知，它在感染初期是可以传播的。所以想想你在两周内接触了多少人，每个人接触了多少人。 我预计它会在像纽约这样的大城市中广泛传播，我们的日常生活似乎并多大改变。

Anonymous
That depends on how agressive the US contact tracing, testing, quaranteen and isolation protocols are. Months is a huge time frame. Days are critical at this early phase. Very agressive strategies can wipe out the virus like China has done in abput a month. Will US be willing to wipe it out similarly? US resolve is not as visible at this time like it is in Korea and other countries.

Anonymous
这取决于美国对接触者的追踪、检测和隔离的力度。月份是一个巨大的时间框架。在早期阶段，天数至关重要。非常激进的战略可以消灭病毒，就像中国在一个月内所做的那样。美国是否愿意用同样的方式消灭它？此时此刻，美国的决心不像韩国和其它国家那样强烈。

Joseph McCarthy
Yup, it’s already starting in Boston as of Mar 2.

Joseph McCarthy
是的，从3月2日开始就在波士顿开始传播了。

Andria Payne
I think it could. There is no cure or prevention methods at this time. We as a nation have to band together and observe the instructions laid out to protect ourselves

Andria Payne
我觉得有可能。 目前还没有治疗或预防的方法。 作为一个国家，我们必须团结起来，遵守为保护我们而制定的指示

Larry Giddens , Licensed Real Estate Broker at Giddens Real Estate (1971-present)
Yes but it will begin to subside starting by the middle of July 2020. My prediction.

Larry Giddens ，在吉登斯房地产持牌地产经纪人(1971年至今)
会的，但它将在2020年7月中旬开始消退，我预测。

Wenjie Piao , lived in The United States of America
at this point control the situation is already beyond the government’s reach. only hope is it dies down itself.

Wenjie Piao 住在美利坚合众国
现在局势已经超出了政府的控制范围，唯一的希望就是它自己消失。

Jeremy Greaves , Business Intelligence Contractor (2007-present)
Yes, mainly due to the fact that there is a shaved chimp as president.

Jeremy Greaves ，商业智能承包商(2007年至今)
会控制不住，主要是因为总统是一只剃了毛的黑猩猩。

M Thoeni , former General Surgeon, Retired (1973-2019)
It is already in the US ...

M Thoeni ，前普通外科医生，退休(1973-2019)
它已经在美国传播开来了...

Hugo De Jong , Safety Manager at Qolor (1999-present)
Yes. That’s what’s happening right now. It is a natural thing. You can only try to slow down the spread of the virus, but it will spread anyway.

Hugo De Jong ，qcolor 安全经理(1999年至今)
控制不住。这就是现在发生的事情。这是很自然的事情。你只能试图减缓病毒的传播，但它还是会继续传播。

Michael Bazilinsky , former Investment Adviser
unlikely.

Michael Bazilinsky ，前投资顾问
不大可能会发生这情况。

Mae Bell
Only God knows.

Mae Bell
只有上帝知道。

Bill Zhang , Principal (2010-present)
It will be but as the weather is getting warm the outbreak will end like flu.

Bill Zhang ，校长(2010年至今)
随着天气变暖，疫情会像流感一样结束。

Joe Ryan , Director of IT (2007-present)
It’s possible to slow the spread and actions are being taken to accomplish that. The fewer people infected in a given area at any point in time, the better. This allows the health care system to deliver better care with better results.
So controlling may amount to slowing more than stopping, but it’s still important to do that.

Joe Ryan ，IT主管(2007年至今)
减缓传播是有可能的，我们正在采取行动来实现这点。在任何时间点，特定地区感染的人越少越好。 这使得卫生保健系统能够提供更好的医疗服务和更好的效果。
所以控制可能意味着放慢速度，而不是停止传播，但是这样做仍然很重要。

Allen Li
too late too little. If you had free healthcare, it might have slowed it a bit but still.

Allen Li
太晚了，检测太少了。如果你有免费的医疗保健，可能会稍微减缓，但仍然控制不了。

Memona Bashir
unless strict precautions are taken

Memona Bashir
除非采取严格的预防措施

Patrick Loudon
From the past all we know is plan for the worst, hope for the best. Those who think that to be media driven ‘panic’ are ignorant, especially when it comes to millions of lives

Patrick Loudon
过去我们只知道做最坏的打算，抱最好的希望。 那些认为是媒体驱动的恐慌，这很无知，特别是涉及到数百万人的生命

Bill Reid , MD Internal Medicine, University of Alabama in Birmingham School of Medicine (1972)
Is coronavirus (COVID-19) going to spread in the US in the coming months?
Yes, this virus will continue to cause escalating illness over the coming months. A vaccine will take 1–1.5 years to develop and distribute. There may be an existing antiviral agent that will be found to blunt the effect of the virus somewhat. They are looking at one of those in particular right now.

Bill Reid，伯明翰医学院阿拉巴马大学内科医学博士（1972年）
未来几个月，冠状病毒(新型冠状病毒)会在美国传播吗？
会的，这种病毒将在未来几个月继续传播，导致不断上升的病例数。疫苗的研制和发放需要1到1年半的时间。现有可能存在一种抗病毒药物，可以在一定程度上减弱病毒的作用。他们现在正在特别关注其中的一种。

Jacques Balynce II
Racism has killed more people in the USA though. Wheres the vaccine for racism?

Jacques Balynce II
在美国，种族主义已经杀死了更多的人。
种族主义的疫苗在哪里？