[2020-02-21]这次疫情过后，中国可以变得比以往更加强大吗？鉴于10点因素，它可以

Fioon Wright
The virus is hitting China's economy hard, but this is likely only temporary. China's immune system is fighting back -- building hospitals in record time, completely locking down a city and most importantly the entire nation uniting as one voice of support and solidarity.Mario Cavolo called out the global response to the Coronavirus in his post "Something's not right here folks" which originally went viral on LKN and then subsequently all over Chinese social media. He compares the media response to Coronavirus with the H1N1 outbreak in the US, saying, "it's not a conspiracy, it's just a tragedy," and "this vicious, political, xenophobic racist attacks and smearing of all things China needs to stop."

Fioon Wright
目前病毒正在严重影响中国经济，但这可能只是暂时的。 中国的免疫系统正在进行反击——在创纪录的时间内建起了医院，完全封锁了一个城市，最重要的是，整个国家团结一致，发出支持和声援的声音。
马里奥•卡沃洛在他的帖子“朋友们，这事有些不对劲”(Something's Not Right Here Folks)中指出了全球对这种冠状病毒的反应。这篇文章最初在LKN上疯传，随后传播到中国的社交媒体。他将媒体对冠状病毒的反应和媒体对美国爆发的H1N1病毒的反应相比较，指出“这不是什么阴谋，这只是一场悲剧”，以及“这种恶毒的、政治性的、排外的种族主义攻击和抹黑中国的任何行为，都需要停止”

What doesn't break you only makes you stronger, and the Chinese people are resilient and will find ways to rise out of this crisis, likely coming back even stronger than before. How long that will take no-one yet knows, but the Chinese spirit is not even close to being broken, and we've seen how Chinese ingenuity in a time of crisis has led to entirely new operating models.

那些不能击垮你的事物，只会让你变得更强大，而中国人是有韧性的，他们会找到摆脱危机的方法，很可能会比以前更加强大。 这需要多长时间，目前还没有人知道，但中国精神还坚挺着，我们已经看到，在危机时期，中国人的创造力产生了全新的运营模式。

During the SARS outbreak in 2003, because everyone was afraid to go out, Liu Qiangdong, founder of JD (Jing Dong, one of China's largest online retailers), moved the physical stores in Zhongguancun to an online store. Ma Yun saw the demand for e-commerce and set up Taobao (Alibaba's B2C commence platform).To make a comparison with SARS, China's GDP was 12 trillion yuan in 2003, but 17 years later China's GDP has reached 100 trillion yuan, so China's overall anti-risk capability has increased nearly 10x since then.

在2003年非典爆发期间，由于所有人都不敢出门，京东创始人刘强东(京东是中国最大的在线零售商之一)将中关村的实体店转换成一家网店。而马云看到了电子商务的需求，建立了淘宝网(阿里巴巴的B2C商业平台)。
与非典相比，2003年中国的国内生产总值为12万亿元，但17年后中国的国内生产总值达到100万亿元，因此中国的整体抗风险能力从那时起增加了近10倍。

Some industries are already feeling the pain of the outbreak, from F&B and hospitality to airlines to pretty much everything offline. It's also seriously affecting global tourism considering the Chinese tourist market is not only the largest in the world, but also bigger spenders than numbers 2 & 3 combined (Americans & Germans).Interestingly, a few industries are actually booming, from medical to online education to food delivery. The altered ecosystem during the crisis is forcing people to find new ways of accessing what they need.Despite the short term effects on many industries across China, it is unlikely to have a long-term destabilizing impact on China's economy, which is already in the midst of a major adjustment, and this event will in many ways accelerate the pace of adjustment towards adaptability and resilience.

一些行业已经感受到了这次病毒爆发的痛苦，从餐饮、酒店到航空公司，几乎所有线下的行业都是如此。 这也严重影响了全球旅游业，因为中国的旅游市场不仅是世界上最大的，而且比第二名和第三名（美国和德国）两个国家的数字总和还要大。
但有趣的是，一些行业实际上正在蓬勃发展，从医疗到在线教育再到外卖。危机期间改变了的生态系统，正迫使人们寻找新的途径来获取他们需要的东西。
尽管对中国许多行业都有短期影响，但对中国经济不太可能产生长期的不稳定影响，中国经济已经处于重大调整之中，这次事件在许多方面将加快调整步伐，以适应和更有弹性。

1 - Offline Shopping is Over
Although people in China have already formed the habit of online shopping in the last few years, there are still a few types of products that people still prefer to buy offline. These last few remaining products are likely to virtually disappear in the coming months after this outbreak. For example, before the outbreak people used to go to the market for fresh groceries, but now buying groceries online has also become the norm.Since shopping is done online, the physical store of the future is no longer centered on "selling products", but with a shift through New Retail to "providing experiences". If the physical store is still designed as a place to sell, then it will lose relevance. No matter what kind of enterprise, it must have an ability to capture customers online, the traditional way of getting customers, such as cold calls or traditional advertising, have less and less power, and will cost more and more.

1、线下购物走到尽头
虽然在过去的几年中，中国人已经形成了网上购物的习惯，但仍然有一些类型的产品，人们仍然喜欢在线下购买。在这次疫情爆发后的未来几个月里，剩余的这些产品线下购买可能几乎会消失。 例如，在疫情爆发之前，人们常常去市场购买新鲜食品，但现在在网上购买食品杂货也成为了一种常态。
由于是在网上完成购物的，未来的实体商店不再以“销售产品”为中心，而是通过“新零售”转变为“提供体验”。 如果实体店仍然作为销售的地方，那么它将失去意义。 无论是什么样的企业，都必须有能力在网上抓住客户，传统的抓住客户的方式，如电话推销或传统的广告，影响力会越来越小，而成本越来越高。

The essence of getting customers online is to capture their attention with content, providing real value before they buy anything. Companies will have to create valuable content in a variety of forms to attract customers from text, short video, audio and other forms such as games. As New Generation China Expert Michael Norris has been predicting for years, more and more things will start to be free, and more and more things will start to be infinitely closer to zero direct profit, so businesses have to find alternate ways of generating income streams. Advertising can be charged more, or partnerships can be created to package and bundle products and services, driving people towards what they are most interested in even if its not your product,. Human attention is now the most valuable resource on earth.

让顾客上线的本质是用内容吸引他们的注意力，在他们购买任何东西之前提供真正的价值。公司将不得不创造各种形式的有价值的内容来吸引客户，从文本，短视频，音频或其他形式，如游戏。正如新一代的中国专家迈克尔 · 诺里斯多年来一直预测的那样，越来越多的东西将会开始免费，越来越多的东西将开始无限接近于零直接利润，因此企业必须找到其他创造收入流的方法。广告可以收取更多的费用，或者可以建立合作关系来包装、捆绑产品和服务，驱使人们寻求他们最感兴趣的东西，即使那不是你的产品。人类的关注度现在是地球上最宝贵的资源。

2 - Online education will start to replace offline education
For the first time ever, Chinese kids have been homeschooled for the past week. Suddenly a whole new possibility has opened up. While before online education was used to supplement offline education, we will begin to see online education starting to replace parts of offline education. New models of doing this more effectively are being realized at this very moment, and people are beginning to realize that the time it takes to commute is actually valuable time that could be used to learn.Just as the internet has changed the circulation path of products, it has also changed the path of knowledge transmission. Online education democratizes superior educational resources, and this is exactly the core problem of solving Chinese education. Previously, each teacher could only teach in front of dozens or at most hundreds of people, but now a single teacher can reach tens or even hundreds of thousands of people online, and these students come from all over the country, including undeveloped areas that have internet access. Now that the structure of a classroom is not a barrier, we will see an increase of super-huge classes of thousands taught by the very best teacher in each subject area, as well as more one-on-one individualized and one to few (like one-to-six) education.

2、线上教育将会开始逐步取代线下教育
有史以来第一次，在过去的一周里，中国的孩子们在家里接受教育。突然，一个全新的可能性出现了。在线上教育被用来补充线下教育之前，我们将开始看到线上教育开始取代线下教育的一部分。在这时刻，能更有效地做到这点的新模式正在实现，人们开始意识到，花在通勤上的时间，实际上也是可以用来学习的宝贵时间。
正如互联网改变了产品流通的途径一样，它也改变了知识传播的途径。网络教育使优势教育资源大众化，这正是解决中国教育问题的核心。以前，每个老师只能在几十个或者最多几百个人面前授课，但是现在，一个老师可以在网上面对成千上万的人，这些学生来自全国各地，包括有互联网接入但不发达的地区。既然教室的结构不再是个障碍，我们会看到每个学科领域，由最好的老师授课的数千个超大型班级的不断增加，以及更多的一对一个性化教育和一对少数(比如一对六)教育。

3 - Working From Home Becomes Common
The longer the epidemic continues, the more people become accustomed to working from home. We will see a continuing trend towards developing careers independently from mainstream jobs, commonly known as "slash career" such as freelancers and KOLs, and they will not need traditional offices. The office leasing market in 2020 will likely drop, with the potential exception of coworking spaces despite the WeWork fiasco. Online office software will accelerate in popularity, especially the office software that can realize collaborative work. An online China is coming, and China will become the global benchmark for a new kind of office.Entirely new collaborative tools and features will be released and updated at lighting speed.

3、在家办公变得普遍
这种流行病持续的时间越长，会有越多的人习惯于在家工作。我们将看到一个持续的趋势，即发展独立于主流工作的职业，通常被称为“斜杠职业”，如自由职业者和意见领袖，他们将不需要传统的办公室。2020年中国的办公室租赁市场可能会下滑，尽管 WeWork 惨败，但共用办公场所可能会是个例外。 在线办公软件，特别是能够实现协同工作的办公软件将会加速普及。一个在线的中国即将到来，中国会成为新型办公室的全球标杆。全新的协作软件和功能将以闪电般的速度发布和更新。

4 - A More Health Conscious Society Based on Biotech
Chinese people will begin to move their focus away from making money, sacrificing their health for money, seeing the limitations of the 996 work schedule. Physical and mental health will be the key indicator of a person's value in the future, and Chinese people will make more conscious decisions about their lifestyles. The identification, judgment and response of the virus will promote the breakthrough of the whole medicine and medical technology, especially to enhance the awareness and attention of the whole nation on the power of biotech. This outbreak has shown us the importance of a scientific medical system. At least initially, the news from Wuhan was all about the shortage of medical resources. The core of medical problems lie in the effective allocation of medical resources, the scheduling ability of medical resources at critical moments, and the coordination and sharing of medical resources.The social credit network tied to surveillance for safety and security will expand to include health of individuals. The government will know who is sick when, and sometimes before the individual may even be aware of it themselves. This could come directly in the form of infrared cameras to capture people within a crowd with a fever, or indirectly in the form of the types of products that people buy, predicting health indicators based on big data of others who regularly consume those products.

4、基于生物技术，更具健康意识的社会
中国人将开始把他们的注意力从赚钱上移开，为了钱牺牲健康，鉴于996计划的局限性。身心健康将是一个人未来价值的关键指标，中国人将对自己的生活方式做出更加自觉的决定。 病毒的识别、判断和反应将促进整个医学和医学技术的突破，特别是提高全国对生物技术力量的认识和重视。 这次疫情的爆发向我们表明了科学医疗系统的重要性。 至少在最初，来自武汉的消息都是关于医疗资源短缺的。 医疗问题的核心在于医疗资源的有效配置、关键时刻医疗资源的调度能力以及医疗资源的协调与共享。
与安全监督有关的社会信用网络将扩大到包括个人健康。 政府将会知道有谁生病，有时甚至在病人自己意识到生病之前。这可以直接以红外摄像机的形式捕捉人群中发烧的人，或者间接以人们购买产品类型的形式来预测，如根据定期消费这些产品的大数据来预测健康指标。

5 - Accelerated Integration of Smart Cities
China's futuristic smart cities include: traffic management, logistics supply chain, emergency preparedness, and information traceability, which will be fully data-based, and even equipped with artificial intelligence disaster preparedness prediction. This reflects the management level of the whole society. With smart cities, China will have more data-backed scientific means of governance. Modern governance is more and more based on data, with the health and security of the people as the first consideration. After this outbreak, the country will learn from experience and lessons learned, analyze what worked well and develop new systems to build the learnings into the fabric of society.

5、智慧城市加速整合
中国未来的智慧城市包括：交通管理、物流供应链、应急准备和信息可追溯性，这些都是完全基于数据的，甚至还配备了人工智能灾害管理预测。这些都反映了整个社会的管理水平。通过智慧城市，中国将拥有更多数据支持的科学治理方式。现代治理越来越以数据为基础，首先考虑的是人们的健康和安全。在这次疫情爆发后，中国将从中吸取经验和教训，分析哪些措施行之有效，并且开发新的系统，将这些经验教训纳入到社会结构。

6 - Next-level China Speed
When we talk about China's speed, we think about infrastructure speed, high-speed rail speed and 5G speed. After this outbreak, China will have the speed of strategic coordination, the speed of wartime research and development, and the speed of public security response. In this outbreak, supplies from all over the world are being delivered to Wuhan, with support from tech giants like JD. The advantages of China's logistics have been fully demonstrated, and supplies in Wuhan have been quickly replenished. Even scarce medical resources have been deployed efficiently across the country, which is truly a miracle of modern logistics.

6、下一层次的中国速度
当我们谈到中国速度时，我们想到的是建设基础设施速度、高铁速度和5G速度。这次疫情爆发后，中国将提高战略协调的速度，战时研发的速度和公安部门反应的速度。 这次疫情爆发中，在像京东这样的科技巨头的支持下，来自世界各地的供应正运往武汉。中国物流的优势得到了充分的展示，武汉的物资供应也得到了迅速补充。即使是稀缺的医疗资源也在全国范围内得到了有效利用，这确实称得上现代物流的奇迹。

On November 1, China has formally launched commercial 5G networks across major cities. Huawei started research and development in 6G technologies a long time ago. In 2019, China announced the P2P sector, its once vibrant alternative financing medium, would be completely gone within two years. What's fast emerging is China's neobanking sector, internet banks without any physical retail location. The central government will encourage China's major tech companies with large amounts of consumer data to enter and compete in the neobanking arena. Currently the list may include China's tech unicorns Bytedance (parent company of Douyin, China's Tiktok with over 400 million daily active users), Meituan Dianping (food and service delivery platform growing faster than everyone expected), and Xiaomi (one of the fastest growing producers in the world).

11月1日，中国正式在全国主要城市推出商用5G网络。而华为很早以前就开始研发6G技术了。2019年，中国宣布曾经充满活力的替代融资媒介P2P行业，将在两年内完全消失。中国的新银行业正在迅速崛起，即没有实体营业网点的互联网银行。中国将鼓励拥有大量消费者数据的中国主要科技公司进入新兴市场来竞争。目前榜单上可能包括中国的科技独角兽公司 字节跳动(抖音的母公司，中国的 Tiktok 拥有超过4亿的日活跃用户)，美团大众点评(餐饮服务平台的发展超出所有人的预期) ，以及小米(世界上增长最快的生产商之一)。

China's neobanks are leading the world in fintech innovations, offering microloans in 3 minutes, under the 3-1-0 business model: 3 minutes to apply and reach a loan decision, 1 second to release the loan and 0 human intervention. China's expected launch of its digital currency in 2020, the Digital Yuan and based on a blockchain essentially making it a cryptocurreny. Crypto law was formally implemented in China as of January 1, 2020. The digital currency, using blockchain features of traceability and authentication, will enable the Chinese Central Bank to effectively monitor and control capital flow. This allows China to further internationalize the RMB as a trade, investment and reserve currency across the Belt and Road regions.

中国的新银行在金融科技创新方面处于世界领先地位，3分钟内提供小额贷款，即3-1-0商业模式：3分钟申请并达成贷款决定，1秒钟发放贷款，0人工干预。中国预计在2020年推出数字货币，基于区块链的数字人民币本质上是一种加密货币。自2020年1月1日起，中国正式实施《加密法》。 这种数字货币利用区块链的特点，可追溯和认证，将使中国中央银行有效地监测和控制资本流动。这使得中国能够进一步将人民币国际化，使之成为中东一带一路地区的贸易、投资和储备货币。

Alibaba has set up a special fund of 1 billion yuan for medical supplies, which is used to purchase medical supplies at home and abroad. In addition to the company's global resource search, Chinese people around the world also launched a global procurement, a batch of supplies from different countries from different flights to China. The seemingly "frozen" China is actually engaged in epic strategic material allocation. After this outbreak, we will see China's strategic material coordination capacity not just in crisis but throughout the entire business world.

阿里巴巴成立了10亿元的医疗用品专项基金，用于购买国内外的医疗用品。除了公司的全球资源搜索外，全世界各地的中国人也发起了全球采购，一批批来自不同国家的供应品从不同的航班来到中国。 表面看似“冻住”的中国，实际上正在进行史诗般的战略物资分配。在这次危机爆发之后，我们将看到中国的战略物资协调能力，不仅在危机中突出体现，乃至整个商业界。

7 - China has Contingency Plans for its Contingency Plan
In the annual Central Economic Work Conference report formulating economic priorities for 2020, China has emphasized the necessity to be ready for a "contingency plan" for 2020. This contingency plan would in no way be framed on the basis of a liberal market model, in the event that the "China Model" failed to deliver on what was intended. In China's current economic thinking under Xi Jinping, China has become more deeply rooted in unique blend of economic principles with socialist characteristics.In 2019, strategic relationships were developed between Alibaba, Tencent, and the largest state infrastructure and telecom organizations, to help the state upgrade its technological competitiveness as it develops the Belt and Road Initiative. The "contingency plan" proactively drives China's economic independence from the US.

7、中国对它的“应急预案”有应急计划
在制定2020年经济工作重点的中国中央经济工作会议年度报告中，中国强调了做好“2020年应急预案”的必要性。如果“中国模式”未能实现预期目标，这个应急预案绝不能建立在自由市场模式的基础上。在中国当前领导人领导下的中国经济思想中，中国已经更加深深地扎根于经济原则与社会主义特色的独特融合。
在2019年，阿里巴巴、腾讯与最大的国家基础设施和电信组织之间建立了战略关系，以帮助中国提升其技术竞争力，同时发展一带一路计划。这个“应急预案”积极推动中国经济独立于美国。

China has moved to remove all foreign computers and operating systems from all state sectors by 2022 for the purpose of economic and national security. While China can create almost all technical components, they still have not caught up when it comes to computer chips. China is funneling $29B with a state-backed semiconductor fund to develop the chip industry, and while Western commentators are skeptical China will be able to catch up, I think it's really just a matter of when, not if.

出于经济和国家安全的考虑，中国已采取行动，到2022年，从所有国有部门撤除所有外国电脑和操作系统。 虽然中国可以制造几乎所有的技术部件，但在电脑芯片方面，他们还没赶上。中国正在向一个政府支持的半导体基金注入290亿美元，用于发展芯片产业。虽然西方评论人士对中国能否迎头赶上持怀疑态度，但我觉得这只是个时间的问题，而不是能否的问题。

8 - China's will Focus on Internal Stability
Stability in employment is the main priority. The trade war directly impacts China's labor market, as manufactures move out of China. China is recalibrating its global supply chain routes, primarily focusing on its Belt and Road Initiative as well as the EU, to compensate for the loss of trade-related jobs.The guiding principle from President Xi for China's booming real estate sector, that properties are for living in not investment, will continue in 2020. There are currently 400 million middle income class in China, and by 2035 is expected to double to 800 million. In order to drive sustainable consumption in China, structural reforms will need to happen in its healthcare, social welfare and pension systems so the middle class can afford to save less and spend more.

8、中国将关注国内的稳定
稳定就业是首要任务。 随着制造业迁出中国，贸易战直接影响到中国的劳动力市场。中国正在重新调整其全球供应链路线，重点放在它的一带一路倡议和欧盟，以弥补贸易相关工作岗位的流失。
中国领导人关于中国蓬勃发展的房地产行业的指导原则是——房地产是为了生活而不是投资，这一原则将在2020年继续实施。中国目前有4亿中产阶级，到2035年预计将翻一番，达到8亿。为了推动中国的可持续消费，中国需要在医疗保健、社会福利和养老金体系方面进行结构性改革，以便中产阶级能够减少储蓄，增加支出。

Despite what Western media might like you to think, the feeling on the ground is that China has always been so united. The government has invested in supporting the whole country through this crisis. Medical workers and soldiers from all over the country went to Wuhan, building two hospitals in 10 days with 5G enabled robots to support inside the hospital. The participation of individuals, enterprises, public welfare organizations and Chinese at home and abroad has formed a systematic collaboration on a scale the human species has never seen before.Chinese people who are abroad are increasingly connected back home through WeChat and other social media platforms like Douyin. This creates a global ecosystem of Chinese that can support one another in times of crisis and cooperate when things settle down. There is also an increasing realization that China is speeding ahead of the rest of the world.

不管西方媒体想要你怎么想，实际上中国一直都这么团结。政府已投入资金支持整个国家度过这场危机。来自全国各地的医务人员和士兵前往武汉，在10天内建造了两家医院，医院内部的5G机器人提供支援。个人、企业、公益组织和海内外中国人的参与，形成了人类前所未有的系统协作。海外的中国人通过微信和抖音等其他社交媒体平台与国内的联系越来越紧密。这就创造了一个全球中国人的生态系统，他们可以在危机时相互支持，在事情安定下来时相互合作。越来越多的人意识到，中国正在超越世界其他国家，

9 - Chinese Companies will Push to Expand Abroad
Chinese companies will start looking more actively to do business abroad to diversify their markets the same way a wise investor diversifies his portfolio to dampen the effect of a crisis. The anti-China sentiment in developed countries makes it hard for openly Chinese companies to do well (with a few exceptions like DJI, the drone company). Huawei is leading the pack here swimming upstream against a lot of pressure, and doing remarkably well despite the international controversy. But Huawei is just the first of many Chinese companies that will expand beyond its borders in the next decade.

9、中国企业将向海外扩张
中国企业将开始更积极地寻求海外业务，以实现市场多元化，就像明智的投资者调整投资组合，以减轻危机的影响一样。发达国家的反华情绪，使得开放的中国企业很难做得很好(除了无人机公司大疆(DJI)等少数企业例外)。华为正在逆流而上，顶住巨大的压力，并在国际争议中表现出色。但华为只是中国众多企业中的第一家，这些企业将在未来10年向海外扩张。

Not all companies have the resilience or reach of Huawei and will direct their attention more towards developing economies who are more open to Chinese products. Disposable income in these countries is growing, and with 85% of the world population living in the developing world (20% inside China), representing 99% of global growth, China is placing its bets for the coming decades. Companies like Transsion, which has effectively captured over 50% of the African smartphone market (Samsung was No. 2 at a distant 10%) focuses all of its efforts in Africa.

但并非所有公司都具有华为那样的弹性或影响力，它们将更多地把注意力转向对中国产品更为开放的发展中经济体。这些国家的可支配收入正在增长，85% 的世界人口生活在发展中国家(中国境内占20%)，占全球增长的99% ，中国正在为未来几十年下注。 像传音(Transsion)这样的公司，已经有效地占领了非洲智能手机市场，超过50% 的份额(三星以低于10%的份额位居第二) 。

We'll see more examples of Chinese companies like this that leverage the advantages of the Chinese tech infrastructure and applying them to meet the unmet needs of markets outside China, particularly developing economies. We'll see many of these companies building on the logistical infrastructure being built by through the Belt and Road Initiative or the digital infrastructure built by companies like Huawei and Transsion. The familiarity and integration with these forms of infrastructure will give them an advantage that will make it difficult for Western competitors to compete with in similar ways that it has been difficult over the last decade for Chinese companies to compete with the likes of Google, Facebook or Apple due to market penetration and foundational platforms that gave them the edge.

我们将看到更多这样的中国公司，利用中国科技基础设施的优势，来满足中国以外市场，特别是未得到满足的发展中经济体的需求。我们将看到许多这样的公司，利用一带一路建立起来的物流基础设施成立起来，或者利用像华为和传音等这样的公司建立的数字基础设施。熟悉和整合这些形式的基础设施，将给他们带来优势，这将使西方竞争者难以以类似的方式与之竞争，而过去十年中，中国公司很难与谷歌、 脸书 或苹果等公司竞争，就是因为它们的市场渗透率和基础平台的优势。

Of the 195 sovereign nations recognized by the UN, Huawei currently has contractual relationships with 172 countries, engulfing the developing world. The top strategic priority for Huawei will be to capture the developed world in 2020. The difficulty for Huawei's access of the EU 5G infrastructure is regulations, as opposed to an outright ban in the US (and only 3 other countries - Australia, New Zealand and Japan). Whether Huawei's push through Europe can succeed will be a fundamental test of China's technological power as well as a test of the increasingly fragile relationships of the West. The UK, against the will of the US, has now partially let Huawei in to develop their 5G infrastructure

在联合国承认的195个主权国家中，华为目前与172个国家有合同关系，席卷了发展中国家。华为的首要战略任务是在2020年占领发达国家市场。华为进入欧盟5G基础设施的困难在于监管法规，而不是像美国的彻底禁止(以及其它3个国家——澳大利亚、新西兰和日本)。华为在欧洲的努力能否成功，将是对中国技术实力的根本考验，也是对日益脆弱的西方关系的考验。英国违背美国的意愿，目前已部分允许华为进入英国开发其5G基础设施。

10 - The China Dream is Just Getting Started
China has accomplished its 70 year mission of becoming a moderately prosperous nation by 2020. One challenging event at the beginning of 2020, while it has slowed China down, is not going to stop China from reaching its goal of being a fully developed country by 2050. Seen on the scale of decades, or the Chinese long-term view of centuries, the coronavirus crisis will be but a blip on the radar. This outbreak will be a test of China's economic and social relations, its people and government relations, and China's relations with the world. China has already impressed the world with its ability to rapidly mobilize at scale to build the hospitals in Wuhan, and these moves are but a small taste of what is to come. Let's support the Chinese people in this time of crisis.

10、中国梦才刚刚开始
中国已经完成了到2020年成为小康国家的70年使命。2020年年初的一个具有挑战性的事件，虽然减缓了中国的发展速度，但并不能阻止中国实现到2050年成为完全发达国家的目标。 从几十年的规模来看，或者从中国几个世纪的长期视角来看，这场新冠状病毒危机将只会是雷达上的一个光点。这次疫情将是对中国经济和社会关系，人们和政府关系以及中国与世界关系的考验。中国迅速动员大规模建设武汉医院的能力已经给世界留下了深刻印象，而这些行动只是未来行动的一小部分。让我们在这个危机时刻，支持中国人民。

The ChinaDream starts in China, but will end up supporting the dreams of those all over the world.
With love and gratitude,

“中国梦”始于中国，但最终会成就全世界人们的梦想。
爱和感激。

文章评论：
Yoann DELWARDE
It summarizes well your deep work on China trends and evolution for the last few years. The current outbreak will only accelerate the growth of China and challenge all of us to evolve smarter.

很好地总结了你在过去几年中对中国趋势和发展的深入研究。目前的疫情爆发只会加速中国的发展，并挑战我们所有人朝更明智的方向进化。

James Davies
To me, number 2 (education) is the most interesting one. But, I still contend that the ultimate winner will be a mesh of elite offline and elite online support. It seems to me not so much about the technology (e.g. Zoom, Futurelearn.com and especially Dingtalk that's mentioned in the SCMP article) all seem fine to that extent).

对我来说，第2点(关于教育)是最有趣的一点。但是，我仍然认为最终的赢家会是精英的线上和线下支持结合的网络。在我看来，这些技术（比如 Zoom，Futurelearn.com，尤其是《南华早报》文章中提到的钉钉）在某种程度上似乎都没什么问题。

Mario Cavolo
Fionn you're making me look ahead already and its dizzying, mostly because its all happening exactly as you said, at "China Speed" . I have zero doubt the difficulties will make China even stronger. We'll all get through this rough time to the joy of Spring.

Fionn，你已经让我看到未来，让我头晕目眩了。主要是因为这一切正如你所说的那样，以“中国速度”发生着。我毫不怀疑，这些困难将使中国更加强大。我们都将度过这段艰难的时光，迎来春天的喜悦。

Fionn Wright（文章作者）
Haha - yes I was just talking to Harald about how we are moving into the future faster now that we ever have and changes are coming so rapidly humans are having a hard time adjusting. 1 year of change now = 10 years of change a decade ago, 100 years of change a century ago and 1000 years of change a millennium ago! And China is doing a fantastic job of leaning into it.

哈哈，是的，我刚刚和Harald聊到我们现在正以前所未有的速度进入未来，而且变化来得非常之快，现在人类正在经历一个艰难的调整时期。现在一年的变化 = 以前十年的变化，一百年的变化，甚至一千年的变化！而且中国在这方面做得非常好。

John Marrett
Excellent article Fionn! Although, due to their dictatorial tendencies and anti human rights activities globally, I am not at all a fan of the Chinese leadership, the Chinese people are a totally different matter: they are innovative and very resilient! I look forward to seeing that innovation and resilience in action after the coronavirus outbreak is over.

很棒的文章，Fionn！虽然，由于他们的独裁倾向和全球范围内的反人权活动，我一点儿也不喜欢中国领导人，但中国人民是一个完全不同的群体：他们富有创新精神，非常有韧性！我期待着看到在冠状病毒爆发结束后，他们采取行动的创新和韧性。

HC Lau
Funny.. I guess Marrett thinks the leadership are made up of Aliens in disguise and not Chinese..

真有意思...我猜你认为他们领导人是由外星人伪装的，而不是中国人...

Jochen Kleef
to me, this is a bit like the Huawei 5G discussion in the US, UK and elsewhere: it pushed Huawei to market ready their own operating system ahead of schedule.
From the posts of my Chinese connections and friends I sense a great deal of defiance and national pride, these virtues are always the ingredients for great achievements so let's watch this space.

对我来说，这次事件有点像华为5G在美国、英国和其他国家的讨论：它推动了华为提前准备好了自己的操作系统。
从我的中国朋友圈的评论中，我感受到了他们对此（禁令）巨大的蔑视和民族自豪感，这些美德总是实现伟大成就的要素，所以让我们来看看它的成长空间。

Fionn Wright（文章作者）
Yes precisely - it’s an accelerant

是的，没错，就像一种催化剂。

HC Lau
Of course it will. During the SARs crisis, Western analysts, all but wrote the obituary for China. Guess what happened? China emerged even stronger than before.

当然会挺过去。在非典危机期间，西方分析家都几乎为中国写下了讣告。猜猜后来发生了什么？ 中国变得比以前更加强大

Anne McDonald
Exciting developments ahead. I do find concerning, however, that with so much moving online people will become increasingly isolated from each other. We could become the brains behind computers, but we could end up being like part of the computer than an actual living person. Things don't have to end up that extreme, but there is that danger

令人兴奋的未来发展。然而，我确实发现，随着网上活动越来越频繁，人们会变得越来越孤立。我们可以成为计算机背后的大脑，但是我们最终也可能成为计算机的一部分，而不是一个活生生的人。事情不一定会走到那个极端，但是危险还是存在的。

Jacob Good
Education has already started to go offline, but this scale is unprecedented. From my online teaching experience, students that are “monitored” are the ones that perform best. Same goes with students in a classroom, they’re always monitored. We all need that push, and online doesn’t have it. Maybe what we gain (convenience, time saved) will overshadow what we lose?

教育已经开始下线，但这种规模是前所未有的。根据我的网络教学经验，那些被“看着”的学生是表现最好的。同样的道理也适用于在教室里的学生，他们总是被监督着。我们都需要这种推动力，而在网络却没有。也许我们所获得的(方便和节省时间)会掩盖我们所失去的？

Swapniiel S.
Great post, Fionn! No doubt China will come out stronger. One area I would like to highlight is that of reinforcing the power of scientific collaboration. The speed with which Chinese scientists decoded the novel corona-virus genome is commendable. They also immediately open sourced it online...

很棒的文章，Fionn！毫无疑问，中国会变得更强大。我想强调的一个方面是，加强科学合作的力量。中国科学家破译新型冠状病毒基因组的速度值得称赞。而且他们还立刻放在了网上公开...