[2025-12-27]SCMP评论区：“黄金舰队”：特朗普的军舰计划是能威慑中国，还是只是白日梦？

US President Donald Trump’s new battleship plan, apparently aimed at deterring China, faces huge implementation hurdles and could cause Beijing to double down on its anti-ship weapons, according to analysts.
Trump unveiled a new class of navy battleships on Monday. These “Trump-class” ships will be larger, faster and “100 times more powerful” than any previously built, according to the American leader, forming the centrepiece of what he called an expanded “Golden Fleet” aimed at cementing US naval dominance.
In an announcement from his Mar-a-Lago estate, Trump declared that the new class of vessels would “inspire fear in America’s enemies all over the world”, though he did not name any specific countries.
Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Renmin University, said the battleship plan was “completely targeting” China. If realised, Shi said, it would strengthen America’s already advanced naval capabilities and significantly increase its control over the oceans.
Liselotte Odgaard, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, said the new fleet involved “long-term strategic signalling and industrial base politics”.
“If funded and built, it would add a future flagship with hypersonic and nuclear-cruise options, but in the near term, Indo-Pacific deterrence still depends on distributed kill webs, littoral denial, and submarine and carrier readiness.”
According to Trump, the ships will be armed with hypersonic missiles, nuclear cruise missiles, railguns, and high-powered lasers, and will be “very AI-controlled”.
Initially, the US Navy will build two Trump-class ships, with the goal of building 20 to 25 in total. The ships are still in the design phase, with construction of the first battleship, the USS Defiant, targeted for the early 2030s.
Trump has vowed to revive the US shipbuilding industry since he returned to the White House earlier this year, as warnings grow that the US lags behind China in both shipbuilding capacity and total output.
Odgaard said Trump’s announcement “signals industrial and military overmatch aspirations at a time of concern that China’s shipbuilding capacity has outstripped the US”.
China continues to be the world’s leading commercial ship producer. In 2024, China captured over 53 per cent of the global market share in commercial shipbuilding, while the US accounted for only 0.1 per cent, according to the Washington-based think tank Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

分析人士指出，美国总统特朗普的新战舰计划显然意在威慑中国，但面临巨大实施障碍，并可能促使北京方面加倍发展反舰武器。
特朗普周一公布了一款新型海军战列舰。据这位美国领导人称，这些"特朗普级"战舰将比以往建造的任何战舰都更大、更快、"威力强100倍"，成为他所谓的扩大版"黄金舰队"的核心，旨在巩固美国的海军主导地位。
特朗普在其海湖庄园宣布，这款新型战舰将"让全世界的美国敌人都感到恐惧"，但他没有点名具体国家。
中国人民大学国际关系学教授时殷弘表示，该战舰计划"完全针对"中国。时殷弘称，如果得以实现，将增强美国本已先进的海军能力，并显著提升其对海洋的控制力。
华盛顿哈德逊研究所高级研究员莉斯洛特·奥德加德表示，新舰队涉及"长期战略信号和工业基础政治"。
"如果获得资金并建成，将增加一款具备高超音速和核巡航选项的未来旗舰，但近期印太威慑仍取决于分布式杀伤网、近海拒止以及潜艇和航母战备状态。"
据特朗普称，这些战舰将配备高超音速导弹、核巡航导弹、电磁轨道炮和高功率激光武器，并将"高度由人工智能控制"。
美国海军最初将建造两艘特朗普级战舰，目标是总共建造20至25艘。这些战舰仍处于设计阶段，首艘战舰"无畏号"的建造目标定于21世纪30年代初。
自今年早些时候重返白宫以来，特朗普誓言重振美国造船业，而有关美国在造船能力和总产量方面落后于中国的警告日益增多。
奥德加德表示，特朗普的宣布"在中国造船能力已超越美国的担忧时期，发出了工业与军事优势抱负的信号"。
中国仍是全球领先的商业船舶生产国。据华盛顿智库战略与国际研究中心数据，2024年中国占据全球商业造船市场份额的53%以上，而美国仅占0.1%。

China boasts the world’s largest navy, with a battle force of over 370 ships and submarines. According to the Pentagon’s annual report to the US Congress, released this week, the Chinese navy aims to produce six aircraft carriers by 2035, bringing its total to nine.
But while the People’s Liberation Army has a numerical advantage, the US still holds a qualitative edge, including in destroyers, aircraft carriers and combat experience.
Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, noted that there remained a “huge question mark” over whether the ships would eventually be built. He cited the “chequered” history of cancelled US Navy programmes and the “fundamental systemic issues” within the US naval shipbuilding industry – even with support from allies such as South Korea.
Trump signed an executive order in April to bolster and rebuild the domestic maritime industry and workforce, while also inking deals with South Korean shipbuilders.
“Even if the programme gets off the drawing board, how many could be built? [Is] there sustained funding support, which will be heavily dependent on dynamics within the US Congress? And it’s all up in the air until the midterm elections,” Koh said.
In October, reports surfaced that the US Navy’s next Ford-class aircraft carrier was facing a two-year delivery delay, pushing its arrival to March 2027. The delay is attributed to persistent developmental issues with its technologies, compounded by workforce and supply chain problems.
“[America’s] naval power has declined quite significantly, its defence-industrial capabilities have declined even more,” said Zhou Bo, a retired senior colonel in the PLA.
“Restoring these capabilities is not something that can be done quickly; it involves a large amount of personnel training, financial investment, technological recovery, and even innovation,” he added.
“The next administration will just stop talking about it, and that’s it. Technically, the difficulty is extremely high and complex. Coordinating so many elements together is almost impossible.”
Stephen Nagy, a professor of politics and international studies at the International Christian University in Tokyo, said that the battleship announcement signalled a “return to visible power projection and a rejection of distributed operations doctrine”.
“[This] will likely prompt China to accelerate its anti-ship ballistic missile programme and deepen military coordination with Russia,” Nagy said.
Song Zhongping, a Chinese military analyst, said that it was questionable whether battleships could survive when faced with extensive anti-ship capabilities.
“It will be very difficult for the US to change the balance of naval power through this move,” he said.

中国拥有世界最大规模的海军，作战舰艇和潜艇总数超过370艘。根据五角大楼本周向美国国会提交的年度报告，中国海军计划到2035年建造6艘航空母舰，使其航母总数达到9艘。
但尽管中国海军在数量上占优，美国仍在质量上保持优势，包括在驱逐舰、航母和作战经验方面。
新加坡拉惹勒南国际研究院国防与战略研究所高级研究员柯林·高指出，这些战舰最终能否建成仍存在"巨大问号"。他列举了美国海军项目被取消的"曲折"历史，以及美国海军造船业存在的"根本性系统问题"——即使有韩国等盟友的支持。
特朗普今年4月签署行政命令以加强和重建国内海事产业及劳动力队伍，同时还与韩国造船企业签署了协议。
"即使该项目脱离图纸阶段，能建造多少艘？是否有持续的资金支持（这在很大程度上取决于美国国会内部动态）？在中期选举之前，一切都悬而未决。"柯林·高表示。
今年10月有报道称，美国海军下一艘福特级航空母舰面临两年交付延迟，将推迟至2027年3月。延迟归因于其技术持续存在开发问题，加之劳动力和供应链问题。
"（美国的）海军力量已显著下降，其国防工业能力下降更甚。"中国人民解放军退役大校周波表示。
"恢复这些能力不是一朝一夕能完成的；涉及大量人员培训、资金投入、技术恢复乃至创新。"他补充道。
"下届政府可能就不再提这事了。从技术上讲，难度极高且复杂。协调这么多要素几乎是不可能的。"
东京国际基督教大学政治与国际研究学教授斯蒂芬·纳吉表示，战舰计划的宣布标志着"回归显性力量投送，并摒弃分布式作战理念"。
"（这）可能会促使中国加速其反舰弹道导弹计划，并深化与俄罗斯的军事协调。"纳吉说。
中国军事分析人士宋忠平表示，战舰在面对广泛反舰能力时能否生存值得怀疑。
"美国很难通过此举改变海军力量平衡。"他表示。

Richard F.
The United States has yet to master hypersonic missile technology and remains hopelessly outmatched in anti-ship missiles and other rocket systems. It lags years behind China in Kill Web capabilities and shipbuilding competence; American shipbuilding mastery has effectively atrophied. According to US think tank CSIS, Shanghai shipyard alone produces more annual tonnage than the United States has built in its entire history. Furthermore, Washington has failed to grasp that establishing successful domestic ship production requires advanced technologies and genuine competitiveness; without these prerequisites, such initiatives cannot succeed. On both fronts, the US trails significantly. The subsequent challenge is that US offensive and defensive missile capabilities lag so far behind China's that new vessels would constitute highly vulnerable targets for Chinese rockets. US military history presents another narrative entirely: from defeat in North Vietnam to the recent strategic failure against the Houthis, the United States demonstrates conceptual bankruptcy both militarily and strategically. I doubt Washington could even project sufficient power to intimidate Venezuela. While aspiring to British Empire-era hegemony, the US has never achieved a fraction of its military striking power. I now question what contingency the US is planning for its next Venezuela embarrassment – an assault on an uninhabited island, perhaps?

美国至今还没掌握高超音速导弹技术，在反舰导弹和其他火箭系统方面更是远远落后。它在杀伤网能力和造船实力上落后中国多年；美国的造船技术实际上已经严重退化。根据美国智库CSIS的数据，仅上海一家船厂的年产量就超过了美国历史上造船总吨位。此外，华盛顿还没明白，要成功建立国内造船产业需要先进技术和真正的竞争力；没有这些前提条件，这类计划就不可能成功。
在这两方面，美国都明显落后。随之而来的问题是，美国的进攻和防御导弹能力远远落后于中国，新造的舰艇在中国火箭面前将成为极易攻击的目标。美国的军事历史则完全是另一回事：从在越南北部的失败到最近对胡塞武装的战略失利，美国在军事和战略上都表现出思想贫乏。我怀疑华盛顿甚至无法投射足够的力量来威慑委内瑞拉。虽然渴望达到大英帝国时代的霸权地位，但美国从未实现其军事打击能力的哪怕一小部分。我现在怀疑，美国为下一次在委内瑞拉的尴尬局面准备了什么应急方案，也许是攻击一个无人岛？

George O.
Like announcing he'd add another engine to F-35, or making the F-47, he probably didnt even know what happened to the Zumwalt-class ships... so dream on, but the world knows !

就像宣布要给F-35加装引擎，或者造出F-47一样，他大概连朱姆沃尔特级驱逐舰的下场都不清楚… 继续做梦吧，全世界可都看着呢！

Raymond@1 L.
In the US military industrial complex, you can gouge a billion dollars out of a Powerpoint presentation. That's what Trump has just done. He will be long gone before the first battleship is built, if ever. The main thing is to grab the money from Treasury now, for himself and his sponsors. The dupes will again be the American public.

在美国军工复合体里，靠一份PPT就能捞走十亿美元。特朗普刚干的就是这事。等第一艘战舰造出来（如果真能造出来的话），他早就下台不知多久了。关键是要趁现在从国库里掏钱，装进自己和金主的口袋。最后被坑的又是美国老百姓。

Jorge C.
The new ship is an exaggerate version of an actual ship the USA navy wants. The navy wants a smaller ship, without some of the weapons and tech like rail gun. I think they are hoping trump passes the budget for this and then they build the scale down final version.

这艘新船是美国海军想要的实际舰船的夸张版本。海军想要的是更小的船，去掉一些武器和技术，比如电磁炮。我觉得他们希望特朗普能通过这个预算，然后他们再建造缩小版的最终版本。

Ong L.
The US's finances cannot support this battleship programme. The US national debt has just crossed the US$ 38T mark. The 10 year bond yields have hit 4.15%. Scott Bessent barely has the ability to raise sufficient funds to refinance the maturing debt in the fiscal year 2025 through selling US$9.2T worth of bonds and another US$1.9T to cover this year's budget deficits. China has dumped so much US Treasuries that her holdings of US Securities have reached a historic low of US$688.7B on Oct 2025 from US$1.32T a few years ago. I estimate the US economy collapsing in around 2027 based on the current trajectory if nothing is done. All that Golden Dome and now Battleship grand plans are just fiscally unsustainable.

美国的财政状况已经无法支撑这个战舰计划了。美国国债刚刚突破38万亿美元大关，十年期国债收益率已经达到4.15%。斯科特·贝森特几乎没能力通过发行9.2万亿美元债券来为2025财年到期的债务再融资，另外还需要1.9万亿美元来填补今年的预算赤字。中国抛售了大量美国国债，持有量已从几年前的1.32万亿美元降至2025年10月的6887亿美元历史低点。按照目前趋势，如果不采取任何措施，我估计美国经济将在2027年左右崩溃。所有这些金顶计划和现在的战舰计划，在财政上根本不可持续。

Tador E.
The Golden Fleet of Trump is just a midnigh fantasy. First, US is not capable to build the fleet, Chinese help is 100% needed, 2) It will start implemenattion by 2030, Trump will be gone by then and the succeeding US presient may just throw this midnight fantasy in the garbage can, 3) US is not financially capable to build and support the fleet. THis Golden Fleet is just for Trump to go bragging without end.

特朗普的黄金舰队纯属白日梦。首先，美国根本没能力自己造舰队，百分百需要中国帮忙；其次，这计划最早2030年才启动，到时候特朗普早下台了，接任的美国总统可能直接把这幻想扔进垃圾桶；最后，美国财政根本负担不起建造和维护这支舰队。
这黄金舰队不过是特朗普没完没了用来吹牛的噱头罢了。

Edmond K.
Absolute nonsense. Those pictures look like cartoon drawings. What next. Those ships will transform into talking robots. LOL. We all know the USA have no ship building capabilities. What are they going to do, outsource in China LOL.

完全是胡说八道。那些照片看起来就像卡通画。接下来呢，那些船是不是要变成会说话的机器人了，笑死。谁都知道美国根本没有造船能力。他们打算怎么办，外包给中国造吗，哈哈。