[2025-11-01]Quora问答：如果美国无法反击中国的稀土禁令，这不就直接证明美国不如中国强大吗？

Bill Chen Geopolitics observer
Well, since Donald took office, only one country has stood up and said no to Donald's tariffs.
The rest gave their quiet acquiescence, wary of the warning from america not to retaliate.
And guess what?
China's no was so forceful it caused Donald to walk back on his own escalation, and repeatedly extend the truce. There will probably be a third extension in November.
So the Sino-American economic competition has no other participants, because no one else is capable of taking on either superpower, ranking in the top two for global GDP.
The EU has heft, but lacks coordination and political will to do right by Europeans.
What we can say is china has enough cards to remain seated at the table. It isn't in danger of folding, while the Americans are fumbling their own hand.

【回答】地缘政治观察者
自从特朗普上台以来，只有一个国家站出来对特朗普的关税说“不”。
其他国家都保持了沉默，谨慎地顺从了美国“不许报复”的警告。
你猜怎么着？
中国的“反对”态度非常强硬，结果导致特朗普不得不在自己升级关税后收回成命，并且一再延长“休战期”。很可能在十一月还会有第三次延期。
所以中美之间的经济竞争没有其他参与者，因为没人有能力同时挑战这两个全球GDP排名前二的超级大国。
欧盟虽然有分量，但缺乏协调和为欧洲人争取利益的政治意愿。
我们可以说，中国手里的牌足够多，能继续坐在谈判桌前。它完全没有被逼到“弃牌”的危险，而美国反而打乱了自己的牌局。

Yes, the rhetoric is mostly American, airy and imperial in tone, selling the impression of hegemony without delivering the promised outcomes.
Mostly, it is face-saving concessions from the Chinese side so far, with matching reciprocation for each American shot fired across the bow.
America can obviously up the game and sanction china like it does Russia, kicking china off the dollar but it must be remembered no country or group of countries can replace the 350m TEUs transiting through Chinese ports this year, in addition to bulk cargo.
Entire economies will go into recession, including the US, if Washington makes the rugpull.
The US can make china bleed, but it must be willing to damage itself in the process. Can america hurt China more than it hurts itself? Hard to say. One has the dollar, the other goods aplenty.
We are not at the stage yet.

确实，现在的舆论主要是美国在主导，语气高高在上，充满帝国腔调，营造出霸权的印象，却无法兑现承诺的结果。
到目前为止，更多的是中国方面做出保全面子的让步，每次美国“开火”，中国也会做出相应的回应。
美国当然可以加码，对中国实施像对俄罗斯那样的制裁，把中国踢出美元体系，但必须记住，没有任何一个国家或国家集团能够替代今年通过中国港口的3.5亿标准箱（TEU）集装箱货物运输，更别说散货了。
如果华盛顿真的这么做，全球整个经济体都会陷入衰退，包括美国自己。
美国当然能够让中国“流血”，但它自己也必须做好承受伤害的准备。美国能否让中国受伤比自己更重？很难说。一方掌控着美元，另一方拥有大量商品。
我们还没有到那个地步。

Panda Man
The United States cannot effectively retaliate against China's rare earth export restrictions. At least in terms of control over supply chains and possession of key resources, China holds a clear advantage.
Modern industries, from chips to missiles to electric vehicles, rely on rare earths. China has long held a global lead in mining, refining technology, and production, accounting for 97% of global heavy rare earth production. While the United States also has rare earth mines, it relies almost entirely on China for processing.
If China were to tighten its grip on rare earths, the United States would immediately discover that its high-tech free competition was built on the bounty of China's raw material supply.
Can the United States retaliate against China? What can it do?
The United States lacks China's oil reserves, and its entire chip supply relies on East Asia. If China imposes rare earth restrictions, the United States' retaliation will likely consist of issuing a statement, shouting a few slogans, convening a meeting of allies, and then, after a period of easing relations, resuming imports.

【回答】
美国无法有效报复中国对稀土出口的限制。至少在对供应链的控制和关键资源的拥有方面，中国占据着明显的优势。
从芯片到导弹再到电动汽车，现代工业都依赖稀土。中国长期在采矿、精炼技术和生产方面处于全球领先地位，占全球重稀土产量的97%。虽然美国也有稀土矿，但其加工几乎完全依赖中国。
如果中国收紧对稀土的控制，美国会立刻发现，它所谓的高科技自由竞争，其实是建立在中国原材料供应的基础上的。
美国能对中国进行报复吗？能做什么呢？
美国没有中国那样的石油储备，其整个芯片供应也依赖东亚。如果中国实施稀土限制，美国的报复很可能就是发表一个声明，喊几句口号，召集盟友开个会，然后在关系缓和一段时间后，恢复进口。

Ron Hobson
It is not about strength. It is also helpful to know history and the pattern of existence, challenge, adaptation becoming the new pattern of existence until challenged again; Thesis > Antithesis > Synthesis/Thesis > Antithesis > Synthesis/Thesis > on and on and on. This is the very base primary cyclic developmental pattern of mankind in all things and ways on all levels. Psychology 101. So foundational, exiting the womb from the warm fluids to the dry atmosphere and the atmosphere is the very first antithesis we all experience.
There was a time not so long ago where OPEC having total control over all known sources of petroleum pool access, and the world panicked over these nations having total economic control over the world. At least until more and more petroleum sources have been found as they exist everywhere even going so deep they are even modern technology inaccessible. The rare energy storage compounds were not as rare as everyone thought. Gasoline could even be made from coal suddenly which left a residue of all the rare earth elements embedded in coal we did not even discover were present until a few years ago when someone was studying coal ash. Coal is loaded with rare earth elements, but the only way to get to them is to burn the coal in complete and total irony! We have huge basins of buried stockpiles of coal ash loaded with rare earth elements all around the planet in nearly every nation of the world. Many smaller poor nations unable to harvest the coal ash and use the minerals have sold off their rights already.
NOW simply watch the stock market news. New pockets of every mineral and elements we wants are constantly being found along with we have only touched less than 1% of the most outer layer of the planet’s surface in harvesting things. FOLLOW the money. Everything else is drama for effect.

【回答】
这不是关于实力的问题。了解历史以及存在、挑战、适应、并形成新的存在模式直到再次被挑战的模式也很重要；正题 > 反题 > 合题/正题 > 反题 > 合题/正题 > 如此循环往复。这是人类在所有层面、所有事物上最基本的周期性发展模式。这是心理学入门知识。它是如此基础，从我们离开母体温暖的羊水进入干燥的大气开始，大气就是我们每个人经历的第一个反题。
不久之前，石油输出国组织（OPEC）曾经完全控制了所有已知的石油资源，全世界都为这些国家对全球经济的绝对控制而恐慌。直到后来，发现越来越多的石油资源，其实石油无处不在，甚至深到现代技术都难以开采。那些所谓稀有的储能化合物其实并不像大家想象的那么稀有。汽油甚至可以由煤炭制造，而煤炭燃烧后的灰烬里居然富含所有我们以前都没注意到的稀土元素。煤里含有大量稀土元素，而获得这些元素的唯一方式，讽刺的是，就是把煤烧掉！地球上几乎每个国家都有大量埋藏的煤灰堆，这些都富含稀土元素。许多无法利用这些煤灰和矿物资源的小国，已经把开发权卖掉了。
现在只需要关注股市新闻。我们想要的各种矿物和元素的新储藏点不断被发现，而我们对地球表层的开发其实还不到1%。跟着资金流向走。其他一切都是为了制造效果的噱头。

Peter Kaye
Nope, how do you figure that? Are you suggesting that the U.S. should take the rare earths by force? REALLY? but China is stronger than the U.S. anyway, in every criteria, what do you think the U.S. has been doing for the last ten years, trying to bring China down in every way they can think of, trouble is, nothing has worked, every single thing they tried has backfired on them, and the reason is quite simple, CHINA IS FAR SMARTER THAN THE US POLITICIANS,
that’s the whole reason China is withholding the critical rare earth elements, to show the folly of US bullying ways, and that they don’t work and there are always consequences to your actions, it’s called KARMA and can come at you in many different ways,

【回答】
不，你是怎么得出这个结论的？你是在暗示美国应该用武力夺取稀土资源吗？真的吗？不过无论如何，中国在各方面都比美国更强大，你觉得美国在过去十年里一直在做什么？他们一直在想尽办法打压中国，但问题是，这些做法全都没有奏效，每一次尝试都反而伤到了自己，原因其实很简单：中国比美国的政客们聪明得多。这也是中国现在限制关键稀土元素出口的根本原因，就是要让美国看到霸凌手段的愚蠢，以及告诉他们这些手段根本行不通，任何行为都会有后果，这就叫做“因果报应”，而且报应的方式有很多种。

Leo Couppis
I will repeat what China’s reply was to Trump .
We are ready for any kind of war, whether be trade, economic or military.

【回答】
我来重复一下中国对特朗普的回应：
我们已经做好应对任何形式战争的准备，无论是贸易战、经济战还是军事战。

Sosow Nima Lives in China (1972–present)
Haven't you noticed that China is replaying what the United States was like before World War II?
Why did Japan risk everything to attack Pearl Harbor? Because the United States had embargoed oil from Japan. At that time Japan's entire stockpile was down to only 6 million tons. If Japan hadn’t attacked Pearl Harbor, it could only have waited to be finished.
So Japan had no choice but to gamble. China is the same now — beginning to throw a noose around America's neck, waiting for the U.S. to kneel or to declare war!
Then, in one war, crush America and reclaim the throne.
There is no just cause.
We are waiting for the United States to kneel, or to declare war first.
(If you can’t see this, then don’t analyze politics or international relations. It’s obvious! Choking with rare earths is analogous to the U.S. oil embargo on Japan back then.)

【回答】居住在中国（1972年至今）
你没发现中国现在正在重演二战前的美国吗？
为什么日本要孤注一掷袭击珍珠港？因为美国对日本实施了石油禁运。当时日本的石油储备只剩下600万吨，如果日本不袭击珍珠港，只能坐等被耗死。
所以日本别无选择，只能赌一把。现在的中国也是一样：开始在美国脖子上套绳索，等着美国下跪，或者先宣战！
然后通过一场战争，击垮美国，重夺王座。
师出无名。
我们就在等美国下跪，或者先宣战。
（如果你看不出来这一点，那就别分析政治或国际关系了。这很明显！用稀土卡美国的脖子，就像当年美国对日本实施石油禁运一样。）

Jesuan Wu Lives in Beijing, China (2023–present)
The US is not as strong as China.
The US has been throwing punches like the rare earth ban onto China none stop for the past 7 years or so. Did you ever see China panick like the US this time around?

【回答】居住在中国北京（2023年至今）
美国没有中国强。
在过去大约七年里，美国一直像实施稀土禁令这样不断地对中国出招。你见过中国像美国这次这样惊慌失措吗？

Graham Dawson
The US spends too much time believing in it’s own BS…the lesson surely is…. never have all your eggs in one basket… that applies to both exports and supply lines…the Fact that the US was almost entirely relient on China for rare earth should have rung some alarm bells long long ago…

【回答】
美国花太多时间相信自己的那些鬼话…教训显而易见：永远不要把所有的鸡蛋放在一个篮子里…这对出口和供应链都适用…事实上，美国几乎完全依赖中国的稀土，这个警钟早就应该敲响了…

Carlos E. Martínez Martínez Former Political Economics, Filmmaking
Only the misinformed believe that the United States is stronger than China. Those times are over.
Now China will start to retaliate the US, and other countries will follow. Particularly country blocks, like BRICS.

【回答】前政治经济学家、电影制作人
只有被误导的人才会认为美国比中国更强大。那个时代已经结束了。
现在中国将开始对美国进行反击，其他国家也会跟进。特别是像金砖国家这样的国家集团。

Buddhahead Former Engineering Manager
Not necessarily. What the US has to do is what China did with semiconductors, it needs to become self-sufficient in rare earth minerals it needs. However, China did not ban rare earths all together, it restricted exports to those products that are weapons of war. To use an American phrase, it is for the ‘national security’ of China. China has been preparing for the defense of China against the threat of the US.
However China knows the treachery of the US since it tried to import rare earths via South Korea, but failed. China requires end use info before it will issue a license for export. It appears the UK is trying the same by order much more than it normally needs. We will see where the excess ends up.

【回答】前工程经理
不一定。美国需要做的是中国在半导体领域所做的事情，也就是在所需的稀土矿产上实现自给自足。然而，中国并没有完全禁止稀土出口，而是限制那些用于战争武器产品的出口。用美国人的话来说，这是出于中国的“国家安全”考虑。中国一直在为防范美国的威胁而做准备。
不过中国很清楚美国的狡诈，因为美国曾试图通过韩国进口稀土，但失败了。中国在发放出口许可证前会要求提供最终用途信息。看来英国现在也在效仿，订购的稀土数量远超其正常需求。我们拭目以待这些多出来的稀土最终会流向哪里。