[2020-01-09]中美关系会随着时间的推移而改善吗？

Robert Molyneux , former STEM Practitioner And Consultant (1973-2012)
As long as the USA is run by its military-industrial complex, it will use provocation and threats of violence against China.
I cannot see USA China relations improving over time, although China will get stronger to the point where it can treat USA bluster with contempt.
A nation with a single government full of STEM experts will prevail over a nation of 51 governments full of lawyers pissing on each other, and a Constitution and a POTUS that allows for childish temper tantrums to shut down its government for weeks and months on end.

Robert Molyneux ，前 STEM 从业员及顾问(1973-2012)
只要美国还是由军事工业复合体控制，它就会对中国使用挑衅和暴力威胁。
我不认为中美关系会随着时间的推移而改善，尽管中国会变得更加强大，以至于可以轻蔑美国的恫吓。
一个由全是科学、技术、工程和数学专家组成的单一政府的国家，将战胜一个由51个政府组成的国家，其中全是互相谩骂的律师，还有一部宪法允许孩子气的总统连续几周甚至几个月关闭政府。

On the other hand, I think China is in for the long haul, so they will probably learn to manage the relationship.
BTW Bryan. You asked me a while ago if I am a Marxist. My understanding of Marxism is pretty limited, but I think Marx forecast that capitalism had some built-in characteristics that would lead to problems. I think that “globalisation” and “free trade” are examples of this, and the “Make America Grate Again” phenomenon is another. Note I said “grate”, not “great”.

另一方面，我认为中国是长期规划的国家，所以他们可能会学会处理这种关系。
顺便说一句，布莱恩（提问者）。刚才你问我是不是马克思主义者。我对马克思主义的理解很有限，但是我认为马克思预测资本主义有一些内在的特征，这些特征会导致一些问题。我认为“全球化”和“自由贸易”就是这方面的例子，而“让美国再次萎大”的现象则是另一个例子。 注意，我说的是“萎大”，不是“伟大”。

Zhicheng Wang , lives in China
If more than 40 years ago, someone asked "Does the relationship between the United States and Japan improve over time?", Now, the answer given by history is "will."
But why did the relationship between the United States and Japan deteriorate? Is the political system of the United States and Japan different? Is the Japanese political system not designed and supervised by the United States? Please analyze it with your brain.
During this period, what happened from deterioration to improvement? Only one thing happened: Japan "has lost decades and still struggles in the mud until today." The United States certainly hopes for such an end, but everyone in China will not accept such an ending.
What card is left in the US to play? It now has only military options left to ensure its advantage. The post-war history has proved that the United States did not hesitate to launch wars, and they never cared about civilian casualties. So, if the United States wants to invade China, then come, we will still fight to defend our homeland as we did more than 70 years ago. We are ready!

Zhicheng Wang ，生活在中国
如果40多年前，有人问“美国和日本之间的关系会随着时间的推移而改善吗? ” 现在，历史给出的答案是“将会”
但是为什么美国和日本的关系恶化了呢？ 美国和日本的政治体制是否不同？ 难道日本的政治制度不是由美国设计和监督的吗？请用你的大脑来分析它。
在此期间，从恶化到改善发生了什么？ 只发生一件事：日本“已经失去了几十年，直到今天仍然在泥泞中挣扎。” 美国当然希望是这样的结局，但是中国的每个人都不会接受这样的结局。
美国还有什么牌可打？ 现在只剩下军事手段来确保自己的优势。 战后的历史证明，美国毫不犹豫地发动战争，从不关心平民伤亡。 所以，如果美国想侵略中国，那么来吧，我们仍然会像70多年前那样为保卫祖国而战。 我们已经准备好了！

Thomas Fugate , lives in The United States of America (2000-present)
Unfortunately not, because as China continues to grow economically and politically, they will inevitably challenge the USA’s world hegemony more; and thus conflict will be generated.
In recent years, it’s become increasingly clear that China is looking to become a world hegemonic power, which can clearly be seen in variety of ways (ex- the belt and road initiative, their advancing space program, their military buildup, etc). This inherently puts China at odds with the United States, because China is challenging the USA’s position as a world power and leader. One of the easiest ways to see this happening is the currently ongoing US-China Trade War.
Whilst the trade war is technically an economic dispute between the two nations, there is a very real political element to the trade war which many people have pointed out recently. Which is, that the USA is looking to cut ties with China where possible, which is happening for a variety of reasons but most notably to stop funding the rising hostile power. I believe this is why we see things like Trump recently ordering companies to look for alternatives to China -Trump says he's ordering American companies to immediately start looking for an alternative to China, and I believe this is also why we are increasingly hearing of decoupling between the USA and China in the news - US and China set on ‘decoupling’ amid clash of civilisations, forum told. To add on to this, if China and the USA do continue to decouple, this could have the effect of greatly worsening tensions between the nations; due to the fact that economic trade between nations has long been a deterrent for war. However, at this point, I see decoupling to some degree or another as exceeding likely; because China and the USA both seem highly unwilling to compromise.
So, to make a long story short, I do not envision US-China relations improving at all in the future; in fact I predict the opposite will happen. However, the future is always uncertain, and any of this could be subject to change.

Thomas Fugate ，生活在美利坚合众国(2000年至今)
不幸的是，不会，因为随着中国经济和政治影响力的持续增长，他们将不可避免更多地挑战美国的世界霸权，从而引发冲突。
近年来，人们越来越清楚地看到，中国正在寻求成为一个世界霸权国家，这可以从多方面清楚地看到(例如，一带一路倡议，他们推进的太空计划，他们的军事建设等等)。 因为中国正在挑战美国作为世界强国和领导者的地位。看到这种情况发生的最容易方式之一，就是目前正在进行的美中贸易战。
虽然从技术上讲，贸易战是两国之间的经济争端，但最近许多人指出，贸易战中有一个非常真实的政治因素。 也就是说，美国希望在可能的情况下切断与中国的关系，这是出于多种原因，但最明显的原因是停止资助这个正在崛起的敌对大国。 我相信这就是为什么我们看到特朗普最近命令公司寻找替代中国的东西，我相信这也是为什么我们越来越多地听到新闻中的美国和中国之间的脱钩。此外，如果中国和美国继续保持脱钩状态，这可能会导致两国之间的紧张关系大大恶化；因为国家间的经济贸易长期以来一直是战争的威慑。然而，我认为在某种程度上，脱钩是极有可能发生的，因为中国和美国似乎都非常不愿意妥协。
所以，长话短说，我并不认为美中关系会在未来有所改善；实际上，我预测美中关系会发生相反的变化。 然而，未来总是不确定的，任何事情都可能会发生变化。

Bob , former Trainer and Consultant at Federal Government Agencies (1977-2015)
I think both countries will be forced to look inward as opposed to a focus on geopolitical strategies. It is currently a battle for dominance in world trade and influence, both of which support an economy based on exports. This strategy has driven Western economies for centuries as a means to achieve and to maintain dominance. Reasons for the current tension will subside. Tides are shifting and what were previously regarded in the West as third world economies are gaining power and influence over their own world. It is my belief that all things have limits and gains in one area are losses to another.

Bob ，前联邦政府机构培训员及顾问(1977-2015)
我认为这两个国家将被迫向内看，而不是关注地缘政治战略。 目前，中国正在争夺世界贸易和影响力的主导地位，而这两者都支撑着一个以出口为基础的经济体。 几个世纪以来，这种战略一直驱动着西方经济体，将其作为实现和保持统治地位的手段。当前紧张局势的原因将会淡化。 潮流正在变化，以前被西方视为第三世界经济体的国家正在对自己世界产生影响力。我相信一切事物都有其限度，在一个领域的收获就是在另一个领域的损失。

CGTN Social Team , works at CGTN
Last week, Trump eased trade tensions by delaying a tariff increase on 250 billion U.S. dollars of Chinese imports scheduled for October 1, while China responded by delaying tariffs on U.S. imports such as soybeans and pork.
However, even if a trade agreement is reached that puts an end to the year-and-a-half trade conflict, and the president loses 2020 reelection, the U.S. confrontation with an emerging China is unlikely to end.
Just last week, U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi – a leading Democrat – agreed with Trump, saying he was right to challenge China's trade practices. Her views signify the shift in attitude in the U.S. political mainstream toward a tougher stance on the second-largest economic power, and the notion that the situation won't improve even if a Democrat unseats Trump next year.

CGTN Social Team ，在 CGTN 工作
上周，特朗普通过推迟原定于10月1日对2500亿美元的中国进口商品加征关税缓解了贸易紧张局势，而中国则通过推迟对大豆和猪肉等美国进口商品征收关税作为回应。
然而，即使达成了一项贸易协定，结束了长达一年半的贸易冲突，即使特朗普总统在2020年的连任选举中落败，美国与新兴中国的对抗也不太可能结束。
就在上周，美国众议院议长、民主党领袖佩洛西同意特朗普的观点。她说，特朗普挑战中国的贸易做法是正确的。 她的观点表明，美国政治主流的态度发生了转变，对这个第二大经济大国采取了更强硬的立场，而且人们认为，即使明年民主党人让特朗普下台，情况也不会改善。

Even if the two sides reach a fair trade deal, it would be difficult to return to the engagement policy that defined their relationship for the past four decades. The bilateral ties are going to stay contentious for a long period – several decades, said Robert Daly, director of the Wilson Center's Kissinger Institute on China and the United States.
"The U.S. and China are competing worldwide to be the leading country that shapes security architectures, trade, and investment regimes… They are also competing to lead on global norms, laws, and practices, and on the value systems that underlie them," Daly told CGTN during an interview at the third Taihe Civilizations Forum in Beijing.
The comprehensive rivalry which actually predated the Trump administration and caused tremendous mutual distrust is "primarily historic and structural," according to Daly, who served as a diplomat at the U.S. embassy in Beijing in the late 1980s and early 1990s. "It cannot be avoided."

即使双方达成了一项公平的贸易协议，也很难回到过去40年来决定双方关系的接触政策。 威尔逊中心基辛格中美研究所所长罗伯特•戴利表示，双边关系将在几十年的时间内存在争议。
在北京举行的第三届太和文明论坛上，戴利在接受 CGTN 采访时说: “美国和中国正在世界范围内竞相成为塑造安全架构、贸易和投资机制的领先国家... 他们也在竞相引领全球规范、法律和实践，以及其背后的价值体系。”
据曾在20世纪80年代末和90年代初，担任美国驻北京大使馆外交官的戴利说，实际上早在特朗普政府之前就存在的全面竞争，导致了巨大的互不信任，这种竞争“主要是历史性和结构性的”，“这是无法避免的。”

The U.S. has been the world's most influential nation since WWII, but the list of its failures is long, he admitted. Now that China's reaching for the same level of influence, conflicts of interests have started emerging. Furthermore, perceptions of moderate Chinese and Americans toward each other are getting worse.
But Daly rejects the idea of a new Cold War, which many experts fear given the current pessimism. "It's not appropriate; it's not a helpful historic comparison," he noted.
The present-day tensions are largely between individual countries, instead of the confrontation between two blocs as in the Cold War era, Vice President of Russia's Diplomatic Academy Alexander Lukin told CGTN during his stay in Beijing.

他承认，自二战以来，美国一直是世界上最有影响力的国家，但失败的例子还很多。现在，中国的影响力达到了同样的水平，利益冲突开始出现。此外，中国人和美国人对彼此的看法正在恶化。
但戴利反对新冷战的观点，鉴于当前的悲观情绪，许多专家担心会出现新冷战。但他指出“这是不恰当的，这不是一个有益的历史比较”
俄罗斯外交学院副院长亚历山大 · 卢金在访问北京期间告诉 CGTN，目前的紧张局势主要是个别国家之间的关系，而不是冷战时期两个集团之间的对抗。

Henry Kissinger wrote 60 years ago that "the real tragedies in life are not in choices between right and wrong," because "only the most callous of persons choose what they know to be wrong." As the struggle between the two nations goes beyond trade, are policymakers actively working together to solve systemic bilateral problems, or are some of them intentionally going down a path of conflict?
Full Analysis: Can China-U.S. ties ever go back to the old normal?

60年前，亨利 · 基辛格写道，“人生中真正的悲剧，不在于是非对错之间的选择” ，因为“只有最冷酷无情的人，才会选择他们明知道是错的东西。”随着两国之间的斗争超越贸易范畴，决策者们是在积极合作，来解决系统性的双边问题，还是有意走上冲突的道路？
全面分析：中美关系能否回到过去的常态？

David Russell , studied at James Hargest College
Planet Earth is on a collision course with extinction.
It is a world wide problem, that has been exacerbated by America’s total lack of serious commitment (even Obama was only nibbling at the edge of the problem). We need the US and China to be on board, and China has made a serious commitment, including solar power and hydrogen fuel.
Trump has taken retrogressive steps to ensure American pollution stays on course for a 6 degree temperature rise by the end of the century, guaranteeing world chaos.
The US has been the international aggressor, and it is the US that needs to step up to make the necessary changes in relationships. If the US has a problem, the International Disputes Tribunal has the mechanism for the cure.

David Russell ，就读于詹姆斯 · 哈格斯特学院
地球正处于毁灭的边缘。
这是一个全球性的问题，而美国完全缺乏严肃的承诺又加剧了这个问题(甚至奥巴马也只是在问题的边缘徘徊)。我们需要美国和中国的参与，中国已经做出了严肃的承诺，包括太阳能和氢燃料。
而特朗普采取了倒退的措施，确保了美国的污染在本世纪末保持6摄氏度升温，将导致世界陷入混乱。
美国一直是国际侵略者，而美国需要挺身而出，对两国关系进行必要的改变。 如果美国有问题，国际争端法庭有解决的机制。

When Trump is gone, either through America waking up to the fact that his 12,000 plus lies while in office, prove him to be unfit for the role; or by impeachment, then there is a chance for relations to heal.
Of course, those who have taken their business elsewhere will be wary of returning to the US as a client because of the breach of trust.

当特朗普离开的时候，要么通过美国意识到他在任期内的12000多个谎言，证明他不适合担任这个角色，要么通过弹劾，两国关系就会有机会得到修复。
当然，那些已将业务转移到其它地方的企业，将会担心因为背信而不愿以客户的身份回到美国。

Michael Charton , Political Science Major City College of New York
It’s really a harder question than you think. It more depends on what the United States will do in the future. Will we withdraw more from the world? If we keep at least our navy, we will continue to be superior to China.
I don’t see the United States and China as friends. We are more like business partners, who don’t like or trust each other completely, but have to work together. We’re too intertwined to go to war, that would bring us both down. If the United States remains powerful, we can restrain their Belt and Road Initiative and limit it to Eurasia. Africa is another story. I can’t speak for United States strategy in Africa. It’s not like the Cold War. The Soviet Union offered ideology. China offers money and projects. They also turn a blind eye to human rights, like the cop looking the other way when certain people commit crimes. Is the United States willing to give up its insistence on human rights and make dealings in African countries strictly a business arrangement?
Russia is poor. I see much of Europe being sucked into the Chinese vortex. Makes me wonder. Maybe not now, but for the UK could Brexit turn out to be good in the long run? Food for thought.

Michael Charton 纽约大学城市学院，政治学专业
这真的是一个比你想象的要难得多的问题。这更多地取决于美国未来将采取什么行动。 我们会从世界上更快撤出吗？如果我们至少保持我们的海军，我们将继续比中国优越。
我不认为美国和中国是朋友。我们更像是商业伙伴，不完全喜欢或信任彼此，但必须一起工作。我们太纠结了，不能发动战争，那会把我们都拖下水的。如果美国继续保持强大，我们可以限制他们的一带一路倡议，并将其限制在欧亚大陆。而非洲则是另一回事。我不能代表美国在非洲的战略。 这不像冷战时期。 苏联提供了意识形态。 中国提供资金和项目。 他们也对人权视而不见，就像某些人犯罪时警察睁一只眼闭一只眼。 美国是否愿意放弃其对人权的坚持，在非洲国家进行严格的商业交易？
俄罗斯很穷。 我看到欧洲大部分地区都被卷入了中国的漩涡。让我怀疑。也许不是现在，但对英国来说，脱欧从长远来看会是好事吗？引人深思。

Richard Wagner , M.L.S. Library Science & Geography, California State University, San Jose (1972)
I believe they will. They have improved considerably over the years since 1949. There is more trade and better cultural exchanges. There are fewer threats of war. As China's economy and living standards continue to improve a reluctance to resort to provocations will diminish. Countries with something to lose are less apt to put them at risk than countries that have nothing to lose.
China is slowly moving away from its ideology based antagonisms to conflicts based on nationalism. Ideological conflicts are more like religious conflicts in that neither side is willing to compromise. Both sides become rigidly locked into absolutist positions. These should be easier to ameliorate. Neither side wants to kill the golden goose.

Richard Wagner 图书馆学与地理硕士，加利福尼亚州立大学，圣何塞(1972)
我相信他们的关系会改善的。自1949年以来，他们的关系已经有了很大的进步。 有更多的贸易和更好的文化交流。 战争的威胁减少了。 随着中国的经济和生活水平不断提高，采取挑衅的手段将会减少。与那些没什么可失去的国家相比，那些有东西会失去的国家不太可能会将自己置于风险之中。
中国正在慢慢地从基于意识形态的对抗转向基于民族主义的冲突。 意识形态冲突更像是宗教冲突，因为双方都不愿意妥协，双方都固守在绝对主义的立场上。 这些应该更容易改善。 任何一方都不想杀鸡取卵。

Sean Russell , Engineer
The US tends to make friends with a lot of our former enemies.
We were pissed off at the French and then the British at some point in our younger years. We’re pretty okay with them now though. (That accent and slang - they definitely perfected their language. Nothing is more amusing than hearing a Brit cursing…Washington probably would have my head if he was still around.)
We weren’t too happy with Germany and Japan less than a century ago. But we’re pretty okay with them now. (Some Americans can be just a bit too obsessed with Japanese culture in fact…)
And don’t forget Vietnam. The two countries are pretty chill nowadays: Unlikely friends? United States and Vietnam
Sometimes I wonder if the US has to hate someone first before we can like them.
So China? Maybe.

Sean Russell ，工程师
美国倾向于和我们以前的许多敌人交朋友。
在我们年轻的时候，我们曾经对法国人和英国人感到愤怒。不过现在我们对他们没什么意见了。 (他们语言的口音和俚语绝对是完美。没有什么比听到一个英国人骂人更有趣的了... 如果华盛顿还活着的话，他可能会杀了我。)
不到一个世纪以前，我们对德国和日本也不太满意。但我们现在对他们也没什么意见了。(事实上，一些美国人对日本文化有点过于痴迷...)
还有别忘了越南。 这两个国家现在还相当冷淡：不太可能成为朋友？美国和越南
有时候我在想，美国是不是必须先恨一个人，然后才能喜欢他。
那么中国呢? 也许吧。

Joseph Siew , former Financial Writer, Geopolitical Writer, Wealth Mgr
It would get worse before it gets better. Americans think they have been shortchanged. They blame all the woes that they are suffering on the Chinese stealing their jobs, their technology, and their money. The only way, according to the Americans, is to collapse China or at least get China to kowtow to the Great America like the once Great Japan. China, on the other hand, think they deserve all the progress so far, and they are not done yet. China, according to the Chinese, is still a developing country. The GDP per capita is a fraction of the US. So, they will continue to improve themselves, and by doing so, they will defy the Americans. It would definitely get worse.

Joseph Siew ，前金融作家，地缘政治作家，财富经理
两国关系在好转之前会变得更糟。美国人认为他们被欺骗了。他们把所有的痛苦都归咎于中国人偷走了他们的工作、技术和金钱。按照美国人的说法，唯一的办法就是让中国崩溃，或者至少让中国像曾经的日本那样向美国卑躬屈膝。另一方面，中国认为他们应该取得迄今为止的所有进步，但他们还没有完成。中国人认为，中国仍然是一个发展中国家。 人均 GDP 只是美国的一小部分。 因此，他们将继续提高自己，这样做以后，他们将蔑视美国人。所以两国关系肯定会变得更糟。

Douglas Hermle , works at Retirement
No. China has an objective and that is to be a world economic and military superpower. For decades now they have played upon the greed of our US corporations to supply cheap labor and no environmental regulations so that those corporations could make huge profits and so could China. US corporations have used those profits and freedom from paying taxes to buy out the competition making something close to monopolies in their areas of business. At some point China will no longer need our corporatists but by then they will be looking for cheap labor elsewhere in the world.

Douglas Hermle ，在退休公司工作
不会改善。中国有一个目标，那就是成为世界经济和军事超级大国。 几十年来，他们利用我们美国公司的贪婪，提供廉价劳动力和缺乏环境法规，使这些公司可以获得巨额利润，中国也可以。美国企业利用这些利润和免交税的自由，买断了竞争对手的股份，在自己的业务领域实现了近乎垄断的地位。在某一时刻，中国将不再需要我们的企业家，但到那时，他们将在世界其他地方寻找廉价劳动力。

Karl Deutsch , Research on the UN and Middle East.
Sino-US relations may be better or be worse in the future. In other words, Sino-US relations are spiraling upward. This year marks the 40th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States. Since the signing of the communique on the establishment of diplomatic relations, Sino-US relations have encountered many setbacks.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States tried to repeat the color revolution in China but failed. To this end, the United States has terminated much technical cooperation with China. In 1999, American bombers destroyed the Chinese Embassy in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, which also affected the sound development of Sino-US relations. But after September 11, 2001, China and the United States began to cooperate because of their common interests in combating terrorism.

Karl Deutsch 、联合国与中东问题研究
未来中美关系可能好也可能坏。换句话说，中美关系正在螺旋上升。今年是中美建交40周年。 自从签署建交公报以来，中美关系遭遇了许多挫折。
苏联解体后，美国试图在中国重演颜色革命，但失败了。为此，美国终止了与中国的大量技术合作。1999年，美国轰炸机摧毁了中国驻南斯拉夫联盟共和国大使馆，也影响了中美关系的健康发展。但是在2001年9月11日之后，中美两国因为在反恐方面的共同利益开始了合作。

However, some Americans do not think so. They think that China has taken advantage of the United States in the past 10 years and has surreptitiously caught up with the United States. So now there is a trade problem, and the United States believes that China has stolen its technology.
Will these problems be solved? It looks like it will, because China and the United States have already started many rounds of negotiations, although not very smooth, but both sides are avoiding conflicts and working hard to cooperate.

然而，一些美国人并不这么认为。 他们认为中国在过去的10年里利用了美国的优势，悄悄地赶上了美国。所以现在出现了贸易问题，美国认为中国窃取了它的技术。
这些问题会得到解决吗？ 看起来会的，因为中国和美国已经开始了多轮谈判，虽然不是很顺利，但双方都在避免冲突，努力合作。

Terrence Knight , Editor/Publisher, retired (1984-present)
It may appear that way. I’m convinced that China (and Russia) are pretty much controlling Trump. They have studied him, they understand him (it’s not that difficult), they know how to pull his chain. China and Russia want to limit US influence and prestige, and they have figured out that Trump is so incredibly incompetent that he can be induced to adopt policies that are detrimental to American interests. China will give Trump an occasional win — just enough to rope to hang himself — and laugh as the United States continues to to decay.

Terrence Knight ，编辑 / 出版人，退休(1984年至今)
看起来是这样的。我确信中国(和俄罗斯)在很大程度上控制着特朗普。他们研究他，他们了解他(这并不难) ，他们知道如何愚弄他。中国和俄罗斯想要限制美国的影响力和威望，他们发现特朗普令人难以置信的无能，以至于可以诱使他采取损害美国利益的政策。 随着美国继续衰落，中国会给特朗普一次偶然的胜利，刚好足够他吊死自己，并在美国继续衰败后大笑。

Richard Proud , B.A. History & Business, Centenary College of Louisiana (1969)
I would think not to Fay in the distant future. We will have to understand that China is the emerging super power in Asia and will have to adjust accordingly with our foreign policies. This includes sitting down with China where dialogue is the chief method of securing better relations

Richard Proud ，历史与商业学士，路易斯安那百年学院，1969年
我想在遥远的未来是不会改善的。我们必须明白，中国是亚洲新兴的超级大国，我们必须根据我们的外交政策做出相应的调整。这包括与中国坐下来，对话是改善两国关系的主要方法。