John Stevens , President and Principal (2011-present)
Contrary to what several other writers have written in response to this question, China is currently spending the equivalent of many times the American military budget. Additionally, much of their spending over the last 20 years has been on systems to fight an asymmetric war against the US.
China’s asymmetric warfare systems have been focused on anti satellite, counter-carrier, area denial, and cyber warfare capabilities. All of these capabilities were developed for the specific purpose of fighting a war against the US.
China is currently working on development of space systems to put men on the moon in the next few years. They successfully launched their “Moon” rocket only a few weeks ago. They have successfully demonstrated the ability to disable American satellites using a ground-based laser, which they actually tested against a US satellite.
John Stevens 、总裁和校长(2011年至今)
Jay Snead , professional researcher, amateur philosopher
This is just another rehash of “The Missile Gap”.
During the Cold war, Pentagon generals made much of a missile gap between the Soviets and the US and that the US would have to spend more (on the Pentagon) to take back the lead. So Congress appropriated a lot of money to build a huge ICBM arsenal.
In fact, the Soviets were far behind their propaganda in missile development, the “gap” never existed. But it got Congress to spend money on missiles.
Today the Pentagon is trying to get the “Space Force” funded to their level they want, so again they claim that if something isn't done, China will overtake the US in space development. In fact, the US is far ahead of China in space development. The only reason that the US is spending less on NASA these days is because private US companies have taken over much of what was formerly a government-only enterprise.
Jay Snead 专业研究员，业余哲学家
如今，五角大楼正试图让“太空部队”计划获得他们想要的资金，因此他们再次声称，如果不采取行动，中国将在太空发展方面超过美国。事实上，美国在太空发展方面远远领先于中国。美国如今减少在 NASA 上的开支的唯一原因是，美国私营企业已经接管了大部分以前只属于政府的企业。
Just like the US shot to the top of the world in railroad development in the 19th century by subsidizing the Pacific railroads, they did that in the 20th Century with space exploration. In both cases, it allowed private companies to get a jump start on new technology.
Current Chinese propaganda suggests that because their economy is increasing at a rapid rate, that their technology and military power is also doing so. But it is not as rosy as they paint it. The US is not falling behind anyone in space technology. China is excited about doing something that the US accomplished 60 years ago. The US is going beyond orbit, beyond the moon, exploring other planets and the outer solar system.
Jack Bryar , Advised startups working with Chinese partners
To start with, for a good fifty years the technology has existed to transport anyone to anywhere on earth in about 45 minutes, provided you didn't mind sitting on a rocket on and off for a week trying to get tech and weather clearances.
As for the comment about China, "current trends" is a mighty big disclaimer. With that said, the China moon landing certainly signals that the country has achieved a considerable level of technical sophistication. What is needed to put a rover on the far side of the moon isn't terribly different from what is needed to put a rover on Mars. And, the US investment in manned flight technology is only a fraction of what it was 15–20 years ago. Just for an example, promises of a manned flight to Mars haven't been backed up by a parallel commitment to fund such such a program, and we still lack a replacement for the basic space shuttle, having cancelled development money for Venturestar, Ansari, Project Constellation, XCor/Lynx, etc.
So, if the US continues to dither, and China continues to commit resources to program development, there will come a day when the General is right.
Jack Bryar ，为与中国合作伙伴合作的初创公司提供建议
So Yes, China COULD surpass the US in space dominance if we are dumb enough to give up the military “High Ground” that is earth orbit.
As for the US putting troops into space — this is the fantasy of loons and nothing more. Perhaps in fifty years, if there is a reason to do so, but no time soon. The Space Force will consist of existing military personnel who already are launching and controlling space-based systems for the USAF, USN, and USA.
Finally, yes, the technology does exist to transport anyone anywhere on earth in little more than an hour — but such systems are not yet economically justifiable although they soon may reach that point.
Saying that the technology exists to go anyplace on the world in one hours is only “sort of correct”. We know how to do it but the vehicle is not built. We have ICBMs that can deliver a nuclear weapon to any place in the world in under about 45 minutes. SpaceX is building their “Starship” and when it is finished (5 or 10 years from now) it would be capable of flying to any point on earth (that has a suitable landing pad) in under an hour. The way this can work is well understood — a rocket puts a space vehicle into a sub orbital trajectory, the vehicle costs in space then re-enters the atmosphere and falls to Earth. Such a flight would be very expensive as it is actually a manned space mission. But these vehicles don’t exist yet unless you would repurpose a Russian Soyuz capsule.
And yes I would expect the Chinese to surpass the US in space. China is four times the population of the US and engineering is the first or second most popular major for Chinese university students but less than 10% of American students study engineering. China also has a government that is able to do long term planning
说这项技术可以在一个小时内到达世界上的任何地方，只是“某种程度上是正确的”。我们知道如何做到，但这种飞行器还没有建造出来。我们有洲际弹道导弹，可以在45分钟内将核武器发射到世界任何地方。SpaceX正在建造他们的“星际飞船”，当它完成时(5或10年后)它将能够在一个小时内飞到地球上的任何地方(那里有一个合适的着陆平台)。 这种方式的工作原理很容易理解——火箭将太空飞行器送入亚轨道，飞行器在太空飞行然后重新进入大气层并降落到地球。这样的飞行代价非常昂贵，因为它实际上是一个载人航天任务。 但是这种飞行器现在还没有，除非你能改变俄罗斯联盟号太空舱的用途。
Ryan Child , Security Specialist at General Dynamics Mission Systems (2018-present)
I do not believe that technology currently exists to transport anyone to any location on Earth in an hour. I do believe that China could definitely surpass the US in space dominance, especially since the populace seem to vote representatives that get their scientific beliefs from the Bible instead of actual scientific methods. That will hold us back immensely. Until there is a “space lobbyist” PAC funneling cash into congressional pockets, they will keep voting in accordance with the Evangelical voting bloc.
Ryan Child 通用动力任务系统安全专家(2018年至今)
我不相信目前存在的技术可以在一个小时内将任何人运送到地球上的任何地方。但我确实相信，中国在太空领域的主导地位肯定会超过美国，特别是因为美国民众似乎把选票投给了那些，从《圣经》而不是从实际的科学方法中获得科学信仰的代表。 这将极大地阻碍我们前进的步伐。 除非有一个“太空说客”政治教育委员会，将资金输入国会口袋，否则他们将继续按照福音派的投票集团进行投票。
Bob Whitcombe , B.S. Nuclear Physics & Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley (1976)
I agree that this is a self-serving statement as the USAF will be the “owner” of the coming Spaceforce - and they seek funding to a higher level than current budgets support - so they need a boogeyman, and that is China.
That being said today, China is quite probably The biggest competitor if current spending trends obtain. Frankly, no real Spaceforce can be a viable until we have laser weapons and that appears to be a bit further down the road. I would be more worried when China gets lasers And rail guns for their planes and we still struggle with development.
Bob Whitcombe 核物理学和环境工程学士，加州大学伯克利分校(1976)
General Kwast is making reference to China’s recent landing of a lunar probe on the far side of the Moon. this demonstrates some very impressive abilities in terms of spacecraft design, command and control, long distance communication, computer programming and so on. China is demonstrating the ability to create and send space vehicles on long distance voyages, potentially to the asteroid belt (which would be an economic bonanza for whoever does it), or military vehicles into deep space orbits and throughout cis lunar space. Military vehicles operating autonomously in deep space will be far beyond the ability of systems on Earth and Low Earth Orbit to influence.
The United States still has competitive advantages in long duration space vehicles, as well as launch frequency and turn around (this will only increase as SpaceX and Blue Origin expand their ability to offer reusable rocket launchers). The US also has a much larger aerospace industry base, as well as many institutions and universities which have projects and programs devoted to space science, so there is a much broader base for the Americans to start with.
As for travelling anywhere on Earth in an hour, this is actually an old idea. In the 1960, a conceptual SSTO vehicle was designed to deliver over 1000 US troops anywhere in the world - Ithacus. The US Marines had done a study to deliver a squad using a sub orbital vehicle in the early 2000’s called SUSTAIN. The SpaceX BFR is also conceived as a sub orbital transport.
Ithacus concept. 1963
USMC SUSTAIN concept
BFR as suborbital transport
So these are the ideas Lieutenant General Steven L. Kwast is talking about.
1963年 Ithacus 的概念
美国海军陆战队的 SUSTAIN 概念
所以这些就是史蒂文 · L · 夸斯特中将所谈论的观点。
Timothy Webb , former Electronics Design Engineer/ Software Programmer
First off I am very impressed with Steven Kwast, we need to understand the power of 'Vision and Strategy', something that I totally agree on and whoever follows with discernment will not be caught by surprise.
To answer your two points,
Yes China could surpass the US in space, but the key to understanding Kwast's speech is that it not about technological superiority dominance but strategic and economic dominance in space and control of information.
The transport technology is based on Gwynne Shotwell and SpaceX’s Starship Earth to Earth transportation vision; that I have spent some time pondering and in my view is achievable in a fairly short order, If the will of the US military is behind it; as finationally it is well within the US military budget to achieve.
Timothy Webb 、前电子设计工程师 / 软件程序员
首先，史蒂文 · 夸斯特给我留下了深刻的印象，我们需要理解‘策略和愿景’的力量，这点我完全同意，任何有洞察力的人都不会感到惊讶。
这种运输技术是基于火箭科学家 肖特维尔 和 SpaceX 公司的星际飞船的地对地运输设想，我花了一些时间思考，在我看来，如果这背后有美国军方的意志，它在短时间内是可以实现的，因为它完全在美国军事预算之内。
Ashok Moza , Chemical Consultant
Lt. General Kwast’s assertion in right. China will surpass us in space technology in a few decades. His assertion to transport everyone to space is not credible. May be we can take people to Moon or even Mars to test our technologies. But settling people on these planets makes no sense. What would be worthwhile is to take people to a planet that would have both water and Air just like Earth. There are reportedly planets in the space that resemble Earth. The nearest one is reportedly 50 light years away. To get to that planet will require two major scientific advances. First one would involve increasing the life span of humans to several hundred years. The second one would have be able to increase the speed of the space craft from current 25000 MPH to several hundred million miles per hour. Currently we are nowhere near meeting these two requirements. So technologies to transport people to a habitable planet do not exist as of now. In that sense the general is wrong.
Ashok Moza 、化学顾问
夸斯特中将的断言是正确的。再过几十年，中国的空间技术就会超过我们。但他说要把所有人送上太空的观点是不可信的。 也许我们可以把人带到去月球甚至火星来测试我们的技术。 但是让人们定居在这些星球上是没有意义的。把人类带到一个既有水又有空气的星球，就像地球一样才是有意义的。据报道，太空中有类似地球的行星，最近的一颗据说在50光年之外。要到达那颗行星需要两大科学进步。首先，需要将人类的寿命延长到几百年。然后，可以将航天器的速度从目前的25000英里每小时提高到几亿英里每小时。 目前我们还远远没有达到这两个要求。 因此，到目前为止，还没有将人类运送到可居住星球的技术。从这个意义上，将军说错了。
Going from China may surpass the US in space dominance is a far cry form transporting people anywhere in the world in a hour. You are mixing the General’s statements about a Chinese Navy in space into the HST/Space plane program of past decades. First, if you don’t want China dominating space & think they might be up to no good (and they might), stop buying your stuff at Beijing Central (Walmart) and supporting the Chinese. As to the old HST/Space Plane program. That is still a pipe dream. An Hyper Sonic Transport is an old scheme for air travel meant to transport anyone in the world to the other side in 4+ hours. I think they were working on the assumption that is the Concorde SST was good. Something flying 5 times faster would be much better. At the time the HST was conceived, it was only natural to consider a space plane flying much faster still.
Now I don’t want to burst anyone’s bubble, but the SST never made a single penny of profit. A program that is eventually has to be abandoned isn’t exactly a proof of concept. That isn’t to say any of this won’t be possible in the future. It probably will be. But tying this to some military effort would be silly. The space plane was conceived as a military fighter. But it would never carry a mass of troops to any location. I have read some of the statements made by Gen Kwast & there is no mention of a space plane. But if he did make an off handed remark about it, the military’s prime concern is to imagine the enemy’s capabilities. Or to see them as far advance boogey men.
Shawn Baker , former Explosive Disposal Officer at U.S. Air Force (1985-1991)
So many improvements are driven by non related events. The mechanization of the US with the Model T Ford and the adoption of farm tractors set us up far an advantage in World War II. The space race drove improvements in science, technology and manufacturing. With so much manufacturing moving off shore the advancements it drives in engineering and science are no longer present in the US. We can study and research space but if we don’t have the improvements driven in manufacturing we won’t have the state of the art manufacturing to support it
Shawn Baker 曾任美国空军爆炸物处理官员(1985-1991)
Yunxue Chen , studied at Shanghai Institute of Foreign Trade (2007)
Typical action of US military asking funds from congress.
Once it wish to have funds, they are shouting “China is so almighty and will definetly threat US.”
Once it is questioned in the congress of the national security, they will answer “China is so weak, do not worry about them, everything is in control.”
The ability of global strategic deploy is one of the weakest link of PLA. Or you will already find that US get tension about that. Transporting anyone to anywhere on earth in one hour? You read too many Sci-fi novels.
Yunxue Chen ，曾就读于上海对外贸易学院(2007年)
America is still powerful from dominating other nations for so long. The world however continues to develop. The Chinese are not dumb. They have a developed education system. Many Americans think all they do is steal technology but that is the old racism . Chinese are watching us demonize each other tearing our own selves apart. Most Americans don’t even know that China send astronauts in space.
We can still innovate and accomplish great things. But our economy was stimulated with massive debt. This is the threat to us, not the Chinese.
Tim Kerk. , former Nurse. (1993-2017)
Transport is not the major focus of space dominance. Hypersonic weapons will be developed first. Hypersonic transport may come in future.
The weapons systems will play a bigger role.
High speed, hypersonic transports will have limitations.
China's development of nuclear power and Generation 4 reactors will give China an ability to support greater industry in the future. This will include over 50 nuclear power plants. Generation 4 reactors could give China a significant advantage over renewable sources.
Tim Kerk. 、前护士(1993-2017)
Jimmy Gomez , lives in China (1985-present)
In all the news about China, Americans must always pay attention to three points: first, it is normal for the American media to devalue China for their own interests, so all aspects of China, such as military power, may be much stronger than what the mainstream media tells you; second, the vast majority of Americans know little about China, so little as not at all; third, the elite of the United States for some purpose, like to boast about the strength of the United States.
Jimmy Gomez ，在中国生活(1985年至今)
David Pan , lived in The United States of America
Given the rapid pace of advancement of China’s military space program, I would say that’s a true statement IF the US does not step up and revitalize its military space programs. As for his second statement, the technology exists, but the equipment to do that has not been designed, tested and produced as of today.
Hossein Khalighi S , Political/Economic analyzer
China has sent a based upon quantum computations satellite and it is a very great work that no country has done it before. They are spending tremendous figures and no other country can assign such budgets for space programs.
Technology for (super)(ultra)hypersonic !!! rockets for military uses is now available and can be changed appropriately to transfer people.
He is absolutely right.
Hossein Khalighi S 、政治 / 经济分析师
Michael R. Moran
- - - IMO . . For some reason - the Chinese are now basically being given “free reign” (by US ! ) - to grow their Military Forces; by size as well as, in levels of modernization - that they WILL ( - Fairly soon > ) be superior to us, in almost every way !!
Michael R. Moran
China just tested its biggest rocket so as to build their lunar base. So far usa has no such ambitions…
Edward Eisenhauer , former Civil Engineer at U.S. Air Force (1996-2005)
My guess is he is referring to hypersonic travel. At Mach 10, it would be possible, but the time taken in launch and landing (both speeding up and slowing down) would eat into the hour considerably. You could launch a hypersonic weapon and have it hit within an hour, but delivering a person alive takes a lot more finesse.
Edward Eisenhauer ，曾任美国空军土木工程师(1996-2005)
Tom Watkins , former Technology, Management, R&D, Economics Consultant at BDM, Inc. (1988-2008)
Flying 12,500 miles in an hour is over Mach 16. We don’t know how to do that yet inside the atmosphere. When we get a plane that will go that fast, it may be a long time before we can figure out how to put a human into it and have them survive the heat, inertia, G forces, etc. It will happen . . . .probably in 20–30 years.
Tom Watkins ，曾任BDM公司技术、管理、研发、经济顾问(1988-2008)
Karamagi Frederick , Manager Technical (2013-present)
Fact. It is just a matter of time.
Karamagi Frederick ，技术经理(2013年至今)
The U.S. air Force all ready has the T3 Black Triangle anti gravity ship
Richard Mustakos , Algorithm Research at Medical Devices (2011-present)
The capability to send someone anywhere on Earth in an hour is basically what SpaceX is advertising for the BFR.
So no BFD.
Richard Mustakos 、医疗器械算法研究(2011年至今)
一个小时内把人送到地球上任何地方的能力，基本上就是 SpaceX 公司为大猎鹰火箭做的广告。
Ray Comeau , Decades working in analyzing risk and plotting strategy
Thanks for request
Current technology can transport anyone anywhere on earth in an hour? I think retired Lt. Gen. Kwast has been smoking that Texas weed a bit.
And of course he raises the China bogeyman to justify the trillions needed to prep for war.
Ray Comeau 几十年来致力于风险分析和策划策略
Peter Makin , Medical/scientific Researcher (2004-present)
I think there’s a difference between “technology exists” and “technology can be rolled out to the masses in a cost-effective way”. Rockets that leave the earth have always had to break earth’s escape velocity and that velocity is high enough to reach any other point on earth in less than an hour.
Peter Makin 、医学 / 科学研究员(2004年至今)
Masao Miwa , Always interested, especially Asia
My opinion: He could be right, especially in the area of space applications. Even Russia is joining China’s space program, they are leaving the US program. US has spent the last decade designing and developing heavy boosters for manned missions to Mars. While this sounds noble, what applications do we gain? China is focused on mining the moon, focusing on mining Helium-3 that can be used for fusion. I think they are looking at a return on investment.
Russia and China Are Teaming Up to Explore the Moon
China is going to mine the Moon for helium-3 fusion fuel - ExtremeTech
And as far as air/space travel on planet earth, the focus is on hypersonic aircraft for travel.
Hypersonic air travel just took a step closer to reality GLL-8 (Gll-VK) Igla - Wikipedia
Masao Miwa 总是有好奇心，尤其是亚洲