[2019-11-12]随着中国劳动力成本的上升，印度会取代中国成为新的制造业中心吗？

Vijay K , former Vp (2016-2017)
Not possible, we miss on fact that as Chinese facilities started improving technology in-turn quality many realized they can start charging premium and most investments in Vietnam Cambodia belt is by Chinese industrialists so they donot loose that cost benefit competitive advantage.
Coming to Indian scenario We are too expensive and Quality is not at all world class since not many businesses cared investing in r&d n technological upgrades in last few decades.
Instead of investing big time in Infrastructure R&D our Government is happy with expensive war machines, People too are jubilant and looking forward we attack PoK.
Lets Hope Govt and People wakes up and gives big push to Infra R&D Education Healthcare.

Vijay K 、前副总裁(2016-2017)
不可能的，我们忽略了这样一个事实：随着中国工厂开始改进技术，许多人意识到他们可以开始收取额外费用，而在柬埔寨的大多数投资是由中国工业家进行的，因此他们不会丧失成本效益竞争优势。
来看看印度的情况，我们太贵了，质量也不是世界级的，因为在过去的几十年里，没有多少企业关心投资研发和技术升级。
我们的政府非但没有在基础设施研发上投入大量时间，反而对昂贵的战争机器感到高兴，人们也兴高采烈，期待着我们进攻克什米尔。
让我们希望政府和人民觉醒，大力推动基础研发、教育和医疗保健。

Afiq Aziz
I would say politically Vietnam is a more stable country. Investors love this, but at the same time Vietnam's population is much3 more smaller then India and China. If all manufacturing companies centred in Vietnam, wage will rise at a super speed rate. Indonesia is another competitor, but then again Indonesia have less skilled labour. India is a country which have skilled people, from IT, enginerring, etc. Yet their salary is much lower then west. So perhaps in the long run India will win the cheap labor race.

Afiq Aziz
我认为越南在政治上是一个更稳定的国家。 投资者喜欢这样，但与此同时，越南的人口比印度和中国少得多。 如果所有的制造业公司都以越南为中心，那么工资将以极快的速度增长。印度尼西亚是另一个竞争对手，但是印度尼西亚的劳动力技能较低。 印度是一个拥有技术人才的国家，从信息技术、工程技术等等。 然而，他们的薪水比西方低得多。 因此，也许从长远来看，印度将赢得廉价劳动力的竞争。

Madhanagopal D , Likes International relations
That may happen gradually. As the trade war is still around the corner, China’s exports are decreasing and it affects manufacturing hubs. Due to trade tariffs, rising labour costs, and other unspecified reasons, The companies that established their manufacturing bases in China are seriously looking out to shift their businesses to other countries.
For those companies, who are looking to invest elsewhere from China, India is a good option. There are many reasons to it. India has good investment environment. India’s rank in “ease of doing business” is improving year on year. It stands at 63 now, up from 77 last year. This is a significant improvement.
India has a stable government and liberal policies compared to China. And there is huge talent pool in India. And the most important thing is India is becoming a huge market with large middle class population. So, consumption is increasing year on year. Already, China is behind India in smartphone manufacturing catering huge demand.

Madhanagopal D ，喜欢国际关系
这可能会逐渐发生。随着贸易战的临近，中国的出口正在下降，这影响到了制造业中心。由于贸易关税、劳动力成本上升以及其他不明原因，在中国建立制造基地的公司正在认真考虑将业务转移到其他国家。
对于那些希望在中国以外投资的公司来说，印度是一个不错的选择。 原因有很多。 印度拥有良好的投资环境。 印度在“经商便利度”方面的排名逐年上升。 现在是63名，去年是77名。 这是一个重大的进步。
与中国相比，印度有一个稳定的政府和自由的政策。印度拥有巨大的人才库，最重要的是，印度正在成为一个拥有大量中产阶级人口的巨大市场。因此，消费正在逐年增长，在满足巨大需求的智能手机制造方面，中国已经落后于印度。

China’s population is becoming old. India has the advantage of demographic dividend. One third of India's population is under 35. This bulge in the working-age population is going to last till 2055.
And considering transportation of goods, India is at the strategic position in the Indian ocean. The transportation is much easier to export to west countries than from China.
So, India can replace China as the global manufacturing hub.

中国人口正在老龄化。印度有人口红利的优势。 印度三分之一的人口在35岁以下。 劳动年龄人口的这种增长将持续到2055年。
考虑到货物运输，印度在印度洋处于战略位置。向西方国家出口运输要比从中国出口容易得多。
因此，印度可以取代中国成为全球制造业中心。

Rashmi Nagar
It is only logical as the investors look for cheaper destinations as a manufacturing base. It was China for the last four decades, now it is India’s turn and who knows couple of decades down the line it may be Bangladesh, Vietminh, Kenya and so on.
The only spoke in the wheel however will be use of robots. If robotics picks up in a big way in manufacturing, it would pose a different kind of challenge- that of skill levels of people managing robotics based manufacturing. India, however is well equipped to meet this challenge.

Rashmi Nagar
只有当投资者寻找成本更低的地方作为制造基地时，这才合乎逻辑。过去的四十年是中国，现在轮到印度了，谁知道几十年后可能是孟加拉国、越南、肯尼亚等等。
然而，历史车轮上唯一的变数将是机器人的使用。如果机器人技术在制造业大行其道，那么它将带来一种不同的挑战——管理基于机器人技术的制造业员工的技能水平。 然而，印度完全有能力应对这一挑战。

Akshay Shetty , Director (2014-present)
By the Looks of it.. As of now doubtful. China has marched way ahead of us in this area and has established its leadership.
They have established ecosystem of symbiotic manufacturing units that support each other very efficiently. For example.. You could walk into one of the industrial malls in Guangzhou with a prototype of say a hardware product. And walk out of there with a complete list of necessary moulds, hardware and other annicilliary parts required for a full production run with understanding of cost. All this in a matter or a few days. Yes, one would have to be careful of Intellectual Property issues but I have heard that they are improving on this count. Moreover, the access to cheap capital and energy is available to them and so is governmental support.
Contrast that with our present system, we face issues such as Labour reforms, capital availability, support from govt and energy issues and skill availability.

Akshay Shetty ，董事(2014年至今)
从表面上看...到现在为止还不确定。中国在这一领域已经遥遥领先于我们，并确立了自己的领导地位。
他们已经建立了共生制造单元的生态系统，这些生态系统能够非常有效地相互支持。例如...你可以带着一个五金产品的原型走进广州的一个工业商场。然后就能带着完整的模具、五金和其他必需的零部件清单走出去，并了解了整个生产过程的成本。所有这一切都在一件事或几天之内。是的，在知识产权问题上必须小心，但我听说他们在这方面正在改进。 此外，他们可以获得廉价的资本和能源，政府的支持也是如此。
与我们目前的体制相比，我们面临的问题包括劳动力改革、资本可用性、政府的支持以及能源问题和技能可用性。

In my opinion, the central govt has tried to its best but that can go only so far if states don't toe the line. However, I'm personally hopeful that this will change in the next few years. Surprisingly, we also face a Labour shortage for micro and small industries which I cannot understand how and why considering our population, as I personally also suffer this malady in my line of work.
In my opinion, instead of focusing on trying to replicate China, which is not possible because if we do then we will end up with outdated technologies and waste our capital investment in the upcoming age of automation.
We should look to innovation and upskilling of our workforce towards emerging technologies and get proficient in design intervention.
Change our paradigm and see if we could make in India for India (internal demand) with optimum cost and excellent quality and also make sure we do not loose our competitive advantage in the services arena (even though a lot of it is going to go obsolete due to AI and automation).

在我看来，印度中央政府已经尽了最大的努力，但是如果各州不服从命令，那就只能走到这一步了。然而，我个人希望这种情况在未来几年内会有所改变。 令人惊讶的是，我们还面临着微型和小型工业的劳动力短缺，我无法理解我们的人口，因为我个人也在我的工作中遭受这种问题。
在我看来，与其专注于试图复制中国，这是不可能的，因为如果我们这样做，那么我们将以过时的技术告终，并在即将到来的自动化时代浪费我们的资本投资。
我们应该着眼于创新和提高我们的劳动力对新兴技术和熟练的设计干预。
改变我们的模式，看看我们能否以最佳的成本和优良的质量在印度生产(内部需求) ，同时确保我们不会丧失在服务领域的竞争优势(尽管由于人工智能和自动化，许多服务将会过时)。

Jagdish Dubey , studied at Indian Institute of Management
It surely can. But there are other competitors like Vietnam. An axis or alliance whatever you call it, between the USA, Japan, Isreal and India can be transformative. Together they can take the World smoothly into the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

Jagdish Dubey ，就读于印度管理学院
当然会。但还有其他竞争对手，比如越南。美国、日本、以色列和印度之间的轴心国或联盟，无论你怎么称呼，都有可能带来变革。他们一起可以把世界平稳地带入第四次工业革命。

Sunil Vasyani , Manufacturing Industries News and Stories
The manufacturing units failed to grow pre reforms period and psu's never invested money in Research and development , post 1991, the entrepreneurs turned to servicing as it required less capital and real estate.
Chaina is hte best for manufacturing , but india is the better for comainies for manufacturing…..

Sunil Vasyani 、制造业新闻和故事
在改革前，制造部门未能增长，各种各样的国营企业也从未在研发方面投入资金，1991年后，企业家转向服务行业，因为这需要更少的资本和房地产。
中国最适合制造业，但制造业对印度也是最适合的。

Harihara , former Retired Engineer
It is a good opportunity for Indian businessmen scientists and engineers , but only by maintaining cost of consumer durables and essential commodities low, by doing good production engineering to peg down manhours per unit, and direct cost without quality deficiency , by making new products at low cost etc. Demand on India will be more both internal and external Then I investments will pile up here and then there is chance.

Harihara 、前退休工程师
这对印度商界的科学家和工程师来说是一个很好的机会，但是只有保持耐用消费品和必需品的低成本，通过做好生产工程来降低单位工时，通过以低成本生产新产品等方式降低直接成本，等等。 国内和国外将对印度的需求增加，那么投资就会在这里堆积起来，然后就有机会了。

Pradip Gangopadhyay , Seeker of Truth
Factories producing for exports about $ 500 billion of goods are going to relocate from China to other countries. Vietnam and Bangladesh have benefitted from such relocation. Whether India will benefit from such relocation will depend on Government policies and the possibility that Vietnam would not be able to provide the manpower needed to run all these factories.

Pradip Gangopadhyay ，真理探索者
生产约5000亿美元商品的工厂为出口，将从中国转移到其他国家。越南和孟加拉国将从这搬迁中受益。印度能否从这种搬迁中受益将取决于政府的政策，以及越南是否有可能无法提供运营所有这些工厂所需的人力。

Nisaruddin Ahmed Jeddy , former Lawyer at High Court of Judicature at Hyderabad (1980-2019)
I dont think so that India will take the place of China as a manufacturing Hub, because India has lower competency skills than China.Further there are too many Holidays in India and peoples are not accustomed to Hard work and they prefer ease and rest to work.China has good leaders who motivate the commonality and bring about a Result-oriented performance from its manpower.India lacks motivated leaders and peoples with higher knowledge and learning , so it is unlikely india will beat china in manufacturing goods or services.

Nisaruddin Ahmed Jeddy 曾任海得拉巴高等法院律师(1980-2019)
我不认为印度会取代中国成为制造业中心，因为印度的技能水平低于中国。 此外，在印度放假的时间太长和人民不习惯辛勤工作，他们喜欢轻松和可休息的工作。中国有优秀的领导者，他们能激发民宗的积极性，来实现以结果为导向的绩效。印度缺乏干劲十足的领导人和知识渊博的人，因此印度不太可能在制造商品或服务方面击败中国。

Sankalp Sahay , Senior Consultant at Nivaata Systems (2016-present)
It's difficult to say a certain Yes to the question. However, there are very good chances of India becoming the next to China or might even take China over.With reference to the article India vs. China: The Battle for Global Manufacturing published in Bloomberg Businessweek, the minimum wage in China has increased sharply and the average labor cost currently stands at 3.52 USD/Hour against India's 0.92 USD/Hour. In the backdrop of this, the companies are exploring other options like Vietnam or Indonesia but neither of them can be more favorable than India, for obvious reasons.Moreover, the initiatives taken by the new government headed by Prime Minister Mr. Modi, has strengthen up the investor confidence tremendously.The Make In India campaign has positive impact on this and has raised the level of government's cooperation towards the investors.The great hole of China, an article published in The Economist states that Chinas's borrowing has soared by 100% of GDP since 2008, and is now 250% of GDP; a little less than wealthy nations, but far higher than any other emerging market. It's very unlikely that China will face a sudden collapse like the Lehman's. But, this indicates that the fund crisis could be underway for China's manufacturing which might slowdown it's pace.India, with advantages like cheap and skilled labor and improving investment environment has a very good potential, which is not yet fully realized but does not even seem too far, stands a very good chance.Thanks for A2A.

Sankalp Sahay ，Nivaata系统高级顾问(2016年至今)
对这个问题很难肯定地说可以。然而，印度很有可能成为仅次于中国的国家，甚至有可能取代中国。参考《印度 vs 中国: 全球制造业之战》这篇发表在2009年彭博商业周刊的文章，中国的最低工资急剧上升，平均劳动力成本目前为3.52美元 / 小时，而印度是0.92美元 / 小时。 在这种背景下，两家公司正在探索越南或印度尼西亚等其他选择，但由于显而易见的原因，这两个国家都不可能比印度更有利。
此外，莫迪总理领导的新政府采取的举措极大地增强了投资者的信心。 印度制造运动对此产生了积极的影响，并提高了政府对投资者的合作水平。 《经济学人》杂志上的一篇文章指出，中国的借贷自2008年以来已经飙升到 GDP 的100% ，现在已经达到 GDP 的250% ，略低于富裕国家，但远高于其他任何新兴市场。 中国不太可能面临雷曼兄弟那样的突然崩塌。但是，这表明中国制造业可能面临着基金危机，这可能会放缓它的步伐。 印度拥有廉价和熟练劳动力以及不断改善的投资环境等优势，具有非常好的潜力，这一潜力尚未得到充分发挥，但似乎并不遥远。 感谢邀请。

Ranadheer Reddy Baddam , former Design Engineer at Pharmaceuticals (1971-1982)
My experience and general observation is that, productivity of Indian labour is low. To be competitive we need massive training and people should be ready to undergo this change.
This does not look possible under present appeasement governance
We may have to wait for a generation change and some real hard times to shake us up

Ranadheer Reddy Baddam 曾任制药公司设计工程师(1971-1982)
根据我的经验和一般观察是，印度劳动生产率很低。为了保持竞争力，我们需要大量的培训，人们应该准备好接受这种变化。
在目前的绥靖政策下，这看起来是不可能发生的。
我们可能不得不等待一代人的变化和经历过一些真正艰难的时期来动摇我们。

Linguo LI , Entrepreneur at Startups (2016-present)
India will become a manufacturing hub in south asia. But not likely to take China’s former place.
China build a whole industrial chain through 40 years. It need good infrastructure, enough power supply, water supply, a well-educated generation, proper government policies etc.
India has the potential.

Linguo LI 、创业企业家(2016年至今)
印度将成为南亚的制造业中心。但不太可能取代中国昔日的地位。
中国经过40年的发展，形成了完整的产业链。 它需要良好的基础设施，足够的电力和水的供应，受过良好教育的一代以及适当的政府政策等等。
印度有潜力。

Solution Buggy , lived in India
India jumped onto the manufacturing bandwagon a few years ago, eventually surfacing the prospects for a promising future in the industry. Backed with favorable demographic dividends for the decades to come, and a relatively low priced quality workforce at 0.92 USD per hour, we hold a firm demographic advantage. The rapidly escalating infrastructure along with a lucrative shift into skilled workforce makes it a potential hotbed for investors. While pots of gold are being poured into this sector, it has also captured the good will and the interests of the government. The ' Make in India' movement has been as good as its word in luring many players into the game, encouraging international and domestic companies to carry forth manufacturing in India. Through various incentives, budget plans and allowances, it has appealed to a businessman’s instinct on various scales and in various sectors and further encouraged investors. PM Modi has rightly pointed out that we have the 3 D's - Democracy, Demography and Demand up our sleeve and we're all set to shake the business world. India be expected to rank amongst the top three manufacturing destinations by 2025

Solution Buggy ，住在印度
几年前，印度跳上了制造业的浪潮，最终为该行业的前景铺平了道路。 由于未来几十年有利的人口红利，以及每小时0.92美元的相对低价的高素质劳动力，我们拥有稳固的人口优势。 快速升级的基础设施，以及向成熟劳动力转移，使其成为潜在的投资者温床。虽然大量的黄金被倾注到这个领域，但它也抓住了政府的良好意愿和利益。“印度制造”运动不负众望，吸引了许多参与者，鼓励国际和国内企业在印度开展制造业。
通过各种激励措施、预算计划和津贴，它在不同规模和不同部门吸引了商人的直觉，并进一步鼓励了投资者。莫迪总理正确地指出，我们已经准备好了3D——民主、人口和需求，我们已经准备好撼动商业世界。到2025年，印度有望跻身前三大制造业目的地之中。

MOyal NEvyn
Never.
An indian worker is a privileged worker whos is at work site for earning a living and not interested if they could the work in less time or more numbers in same time or if they could optimise the process or material utilization. At work, they have to tend to the internal politics as well. After work, they have to rush back to watch the tv sops, booze around and lay idle. With that in their blood and he indian trade unxs protecting every corrupt methods in production, India will never even see the tail of China in terms of cost effective production for the end customer.
With automated systems, may be we can but supply of electricity, raw material cost and availability could be a moajor factor. After all this comes the inspector raj of tax regime govt goons that look at ways of extracting money from manufacturers. Once all this is over, you have the local political parties and leaders( parasites and leeches) who threatens the businees, premises, operations in ways unimaginable to outside world and there by making it looking pale in front of any economy.

MOyal NEvyn
完全不可能。
印度工人是享有特权的工人，他们上班只是为了谋生，他们对能否更短时间完成工作或跟更多的人配合，或者他们是否可以优化工艺或好好利用物质完全不感兴趣。在工作中，他们也要考虑内部政治。下班后，他们必须赶回去看电视，到处喝酒，无所事事。他们的血液里流淌着这样的本性，印度的工会保护着生产中的每一种腐败，印度甚至永远不会看到中国在为最终消费者提供低成本高效益方面处于落后地位。
有自动化系统，或许我们可能可以，但电力供应，原材料成本和可用性是一个重要因素。在所有这一切之后，税收制度的检查员开始寻找从制造商那里榨取钱财的方法。一旦这一切都结束了，你就会看到当地的政党和领导人(寄生虫和水蛭)，他们以一种外部世界无法想象的方式威胁着企业、场所和业务，让它在任何经济体面前都显得衰落无力。

Rasamasetty Yesu Narayana , works at A.P.S.R.T.C.
the labor force in china now depleting in a rapid way as the age factor. china now having a high level of old age group where the pace of increasing of younger generation is considerably low. coming to india the work force consists majority of younger generation. so every nation turn their head towards india for market penetrarion. however we cannot conclude india can outrun china in manufacturing as we cannot compete a high end technology with basic manpower . China with its high capital mobilization can do many things easily where indian companies trying to cope up their strategies to invite foreign investors to raise funds.thats why modi govt encouraging privatization in major sectors and creating a favorable conditions to foreign investors.

Rasamasetty Yesu Narayana 在美国预防和应急反应中心工作
随着年龄的增长，中国的劳动力正在迅速减少。 中国目前老年人口水平较高，年轻一代人口增长速度相对较慢。说到印度，劳动力大部分来自年轻一代，所以每个国家都转向印度寻求参与市场。 然而，我们不能断定印度在制造业方面能超过中国，因为我们无法用基本的人力资源与高端技术竞争。 中国凭借其高度资本动员，可以很容易做到许多事情，而在印度，企业试图通过战略来吸引外国投资者来筹集资金。这就是为什么莫迪政府鼓励主要行业的私有化，并为外国投资者创造有利条件。

Anupam Sahu, Consultant in Ernst & Young(2014-18)
The question has often been asked, what lessons can India learn from the Chinese success story? Can they be applied to India—or is the national genius, or DNA, so different that copycat strategies won’t work?
It is when one confronts these questions that the similarities assumed on the basis of size, scale and income level are seen to be superficial. The historical and cultural differences between the two entities, and, therefore, their political and economic choices, are more substantive
China mobilised its masses to bring about revolutionary change, whereas India sought change through laws passed in Parliament.

Anupam Sahu, 安永会计师事务所顾问(2014-18)
人们经常提出这样一个问题：印度能从中国的成功故事中学到什么？它们能适用于印度吗？抑或是印度的民族天才(DNA)如此不同，以至于模仿的策略没用？
当一个人面对这些问题时，比较大小、规模和收入水平都是肤浅的。 这两个实体之间的历史和文化差异，以及它们的政治和经济选择，更具实际性。
中国动员群众带来革命性的变革，而印度则通过议会允许的法律寻求变革。

Differences in the modern era are equally substantial. China became a one-party dictatorship while India imitated Westminster democracy. China’s rulers emerged hardened from a civil war and could take the tough decisions about breaking down old ways of doing things in order to create a new reality, whereas India won its freedom through non-violence, so its leaders were inclined to make the softer choices.
China began under Mao by emphasising change in the countryside while India under Nehru sought industrialisation. China achieved rapid progress on the key human indicators while India did not.

现代社会的差异同样巨大。中国成为一党专政，而印度模仿议会民主制度。中国的统治者在内战中变得强硬起来，他们可能会为了创造一个新的现实，而做出打破旧有的模式，而印度则通过非暴力赢得了自由，因此印度领导人倾向于做出更温和的选择。
中国在毛时期开始强调农村的变革，而尼赫鲁时期的印度则寻求工业化。 中国在关键人类指标方面取得了快速进展，而印度则没有。

China began reforming its economy in 1978 with a sense of national purpose; India’s reforms since 1991 have been half-hearted at best and without much political conviction. The end results have thus been very different for the two economies; China has become a global power that casts a shadow over India’s regional status.
The two countries’ paths to development have been almost polar opposites. For a long time, China was seen to have a better macro story than its micro-story: that is, its state performed better than individual companies. India, in contrast, had an underperforming state that failed to deliver the basics, while its entrepreneurs ran a better-performing private corporate sector. China, therefore, attracted more foreign direct investment in job-creating new factories, while India attracted portfolio investment in existing companies. In recent years, following sweeping reform of its public sector, China’s micro story has improved as well, though in general corporate governance norms remain superior in India.

中国从1978年开始带着国家目标感进行经济改革; 印度自1991年以来的改革充其量只是三心二意，没有多少政治信念。 因此，这两个经济体的最终结果截然不同; 中国已经成为一个全球大国，给印度的地区地位蒙上了阴影。
两国的发展道路几乎截然相反。 长期以来，人们认为中国的宏观经济状况要好于微观经济状况: 也就是说，国有企业的表现要好于私有企业。 相比之下，印度表现不佳，未能提供基本服务，而企业家的私有企业表现更好。因此，中国在创造就业机会的方面，吸引了更多的外国直接投资，而印度则吸引了对现有企业的组合投资。 近年来，随着公共部门的全面改革，中国的微观状况也有所改善，不过，总体而言，印度的公司治理规范仍然优于中国。

Narasimhan Rajagopal , studied at Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
Yes. Ofcourse. Going by the current market scenario, India will certainly become the Industrial centre in another 10-20 years. Maybe China will be the only other country in contention. So if companies domestic and foreign do not invest soon in India they will be missing the opportunity

Narasimhan Rajagopal ，就读于印度理工学院，马德拉斯
是的，当然会取代中国。 按照目前的市场形势，印度肯定会在未来10-20年内成为工业中心。 也许中国将是唯一另一个有争议的国家。 因此，如果国内外企业不尽快在印度投资，它们将错失良机

Ray Comeau , A decade in China, interest in geopolitics
my POV from a career in banking, worked along side many Indians and maintain contacts with Indians in India.
China's success can be boiled down to gov't and hunger.
China's gov't is highly educated. Basically everyone has at least one university degree. They all have an understanding of economics and how business functions. They are united in making China prosperous from an ideological POV and a practical one. They do not put road blocks in place for Chinese businesses.
China's turn around is attributed to Deng XiaoPing when he moved China away from Marxist ideology to capitalism approach. After 40 years of civil war and bad policies in the early years; the people were very hungry for a change. Moving to capitalism with Chinese characters, was the way for the people for create a new life for themselves.

Ray Comeau 在中国十年，对地缘政治的兴趣
我在银行业工作，与许多印度人一起工作，并与印度人保持联系。
中国的成功可以归结为政府和人民的渴望。
中国受过高等教育。基本上每个人都至少有一个大学学位。 他们都对经济学和商业运作有所了解。 他们联合起来，从意识形态的角度和实际的角度来看待中国的繁荣。 他们没有为中国企业设置路障。
中国的转变要归功于邓，他使中国从马克思主义意识形态转向资本主义。在经历了40年的内战和最初几年的糟糕政策之后，人民非常渴望改变。走向有中国特色的资本主义，是人民为自己创造新生活的途径。

One billion people moving a new direction can have a big impact. Chinese citizens did not sit on their ass and wait for something to happen, they went out and did whatever it took to make capitalism a success. They had no choice. There was no social safety net to make people lazy. You earn money or you starve. So now some 30+ years later 600 million people are no longer living in poverty.
Can India compete with China is a question only India can answer by doing.
IMO one big challenge for India is its' government. It seems unable to unit itself for the common good of India, unless there is some war. Such a diverse country has both benefits and added complexity. I think the next decade is critical for India in the sense of economics. It will always survive as it has always done.

10亿人朝着一个新的方向前进，可以产生巨大的影响。中国公民不会坐等事情发生，他们走出去，做任何能让资本主义成功的事情。他们别无选择，没有社会安全网来使人们变得懒惰。你要么赚钱，要么挨饿。 所以现在大约30多年后，6亿人不再生活在贫困之中了。
印度能否与中国竞争，是一个只有印度通过实践才能回答的问题。
在我看来，印度面临的一大挑战是其政府。它似乎无法为了印度的共同利益而将自己联合起来，除非发生战争。 这样一个多元化的国家既有好处，也增加了复杂性。我认为，从经济学的角度来看，未来十年对印度至关重要。 它将一如既往地生存下去。

Alyasa Gan , Chief Operating Officer
To say India cannot beat China in manufacturing is a far fetch conclusion. I would say India are already better than China producing specific components that are mean for high tech at smaller volume especiaaly for the US market . But as a whole China is the world largest producers of manufactured goods and India may have problem to beat China in this are for quite sme years. China huge local consumption is a big advantage.
To succeed in manufacturing you need a big local market that can absorb your fixed cost. The more you can produce the more efficient you get and the more efficience you ge...

Alyasa 、营运总监
说印度在制造业方面不能击败中国，是一个很远的结论。 我要说的是，印度已经比中国更好地生产特定的零部件，这些零部件对于高科技产品来说产量更小，尤其是对于美国市场。 但总体而言，中国是全球最大的制成品生产国，印度在这方面可能难以超过中国。 中国巨大的国内消费是一大优势。
要想在制造业取得成功，你需要一个能够吸收固定成本的大的本地市场。 你生产的产品越多，效率就越高。

Deepak Kumar
india as a country need to reinvent the wheel w.r.t to new national policies, laws, procedures, taxation, labour laws, land acqisition, banking loans and policies, to be major hub in manufacturing, currently scenario is very unstable, unpredictable, nobody knows what is happening.
even currently existing corporates donot want to invest 5k -10k- 20 k crores for new ventures.
new ventures are not coming, new jobs are not being created.

Deepak Kumar
印度作为一个国家需要重新发明新的国家政策，法律，程序，税收，劳工法，土地征用，银行贷款和政策，成为制造业的主要中心，目前的情况非常不稳定，不可预测，没有人知道会发生什么。
即使是现有的公司也不愿意投资5000-10000-2000亿用于新的投资。
新的企业不会出现，新的工作岗位也就不会创造出来。

Sagar Jain , Importer from China to India
Had been to china Recently for business reason and having intrest in china’s business history also, my openion about china success is based on two factor, people and CCP (Govt.)
People- I found that chinese people are more Innovative in product development and marketing them secondly they are too hardworking (we Indians are nowhere) now when I mean Innovative that dosent mean they innovated very compex product or so,… no no , otherwise EDISON, ALBERT EISTIEAN would have been born in China, Chinese are very good in innovating the things of day to day use

Sagar Jain 从中国到印度进口
我最近因为商业原因去了中国，对中国的商业历史也很感兴趣，我对中国成功的看法是基于两个因素：人民和政府。
我发现中国人在产品开发和市场营销方面更具创新性。其次，他们太勤奋了(我们印度人哪也不是)。我说的创新不是意味着他们创新了很有竞争力的产品... 不然的话，爱迪生，爱因斯坦就诞生在中国了，中国人在日常用品的创新方面非常出色。

I Remember the famouse quote of Deng xioping “Being reach is glorious “and chinese people took it very seriously, and govt is providing them everything to achieve these, Govt has to provide growth to people to keep them occupied and that is base of ccp OR people will no longer support the Govt. so CCP has to fuel the Growth in China to rule the china, its win win situation for Peoples and Govt,
now in India its completely Chaos, nobody knows whats going on, politicians are making money out of everything, everybody wants easy money, nobody wants to work hard for it, i think Democarcy handled by immature people in govt k ills this nation.

我记得邓的名言“达成目标才是光荣的”，中国人民非常重视这一点，政府为他们提供了一切来实现这一目标，政府必须为人民提供增长来保持他们的认可，这是基础，否则人民将不再支持政府。所以必须推动中国的经济增长来继续管理中国，这是人民和政府的双赢局面,
现在在印度完全是一片混乱，没有人知道发生了什么，政客们从任何地方赚钱，每个人都想轻松赚钱，没有人愿意为此努力工作，我认为，政府中一些不成熟的人处理的民主导致了这个国家陷入困境。

Anonymous
In India 1.37billons people no one wants to work just wants to becomes a, manager ,engineer ,collectors
Without any hard working that's an typical indian mentality…
And comparing the them self to Americans and Europeans and try to become one of them
And those who work hard they get adopted by USA , AUSTRALIA , Germany and get citizenship and settled down there
That's why we indians are loosing and China is taking over ….
China works so hard they didn't have blood in theirs veins they have flowing fluid in Thier veins is electron…., Proton , neutron…
Got that
Never ask this question again
I am Indian and I don't feel good about it…..

Anonymous
在印度，13.7亿人没有人想工作，只想成为经理，工程师，收藏家
没有任何人努力工作，这是典型的印度心态...
并把他们自己与美国人和欧洲人相比较，试图成为他们中的一员
那些努力工作的人会被美国、澳大利亚、德国收养，获得公民身份并在那里定居下来
这就是为什么我们印度人正在失败，而中国人正在接管...
中国人工作非常努力，他们的血管里流的不是血而是电子、质子和中子...
明白了这点，永远不要再问这种问题了。
我是印度人，我感觉不太好受...

Anonymous
I’d say its cultural. China also has a strong tooling background, as compared to India. I mention this as its the key to mfg.
It’s also infinitely easier working with the Chinese as compared with the Indians. Which is a shame because India basically wastes its built in advantage, ie the ability to speak English.

Anonymous
我认为这是文化上的。与印度相比，中国也有强大的加工背景。我提到这是制造业的关键。
与印度人相比，与中国人打交道要容易得多。 这是一个遗憾，因为印度基本上浪费了它的固有优势，即说英语的能力。

Joseph Diaz , Ex-Army Colonel and now corporate Lawyer
I’ve come across similar questions from time to time on this very topic and I don’t recall anyone ever pointing out the true reason.
The reason as to why India can’t out perform China in manufacturing is NOT because of infrastructure, it’s NOT because of skilled labors, it’s NOT because of corruption, and it’s also NOT because of “superiority of the Chinese mentality”.
I’d like to answer this question with this noun
Unpredictability
Now repeat after me.Unpredictability,Unpredictabilit,yUnpredictability
This is the single most powerful noun that’s preventing India from being a manufacturing hub - because doing business in India is so god damn unpredictable, therefore it is impossible to calculate your return on investment when dealing with India.
Bad infrastructure? No problem, that can be factored into shipping cost & delivery time
Lack of experienced labors? No problem, that’ll factor into capital/startup cost
Corruption? No problem, tell me who I need to pay and how much, that’ll become part of operating cost
Lots of paper work? No problem, longer startup time means lower return on investment, but that again, can be calculated, and can be made up with higher profit margin.

Joseph Diaz 前陆军上校，现在是公司律师
在这个话题上，我不时会遇到类似的问题，我不记得有人指出过真正的原因。
印度在制造业方面不能超过中国的原因不是因为基础设施，不是因为熟练工人，不是因为腐败，也不是因为“中国人的优越心态”。
我想用这个单次来回答这个问题：不可预测性
现在跟着我念：不可预测性，不可预测性，不可预测性
这是阻碍印度成为制造业中心的唯一最强大的原因——因为在印度做生意太他妈不可预测了，因此在与印度打交道时，不可能计算得出你的投资回报。
糟糕的基础设施？ 没有问题，这只会成为运输成本和交货时间的因素。
缺乏经验丰富的劳动力? 没有问题，这将成为启动成本的因素。
腐败？ 没有问题，告诉我，我需要支付给谁和需要支付多少，这将成为运营成本的一部分。
很多文书工作？ 没有问题，更长的启动时间意味着较低的投资回报率，但同样的，可以计算得出，并可以用较高的利润率来弥补。

You know what the problem with India is?
NOTHING CAN BE CALCULATED
In India:
When a someone says “yes”, you have no idea whether he/she actually meant yes or no.
When a worker say that “I’ll be there in 5 minutes”, you have no idea whether he’s one of those workers who keeps his word, or he’s one of those workers who’ll just show up 4 hours later
When an official approaches you and ask for “expedition fee”, you have no idea how much he’s asking, and how much faster he can expedite, and how many more like him are coming
When you are presented with a pile of paper work, you have no idea whether this is the last pile, or whether there are 20 more piles that’s coming after, and whether you were even given the correct paper works to fill out.

你知道印度真正的问题是什么吗？
在印度，没有什么是可以计算的。
当一个人说“是”的时候，你不知道他 她是否真的想说“是”或“不是”。
当一个员工说“我5分钟后到”的时候，你根本不知道他是信守诺言的员工，还是那种4小时后才露面的员工。
当一个官员找你要“考察费”的时候，你根本不知道他要求多少钱，他能加快多少速度，还有多少像他这样的人会过来。
当一堆文件摊在你面前的时候，你不知道这是不是最后一堆，或者接下来还有20多堆文件，甚至你不知道是否填写了正确的文件。

Heck, even if you have someone coming in to help, you have no idea whether he’ll hit a cow on the way here and then forced to wait for another 8 hours for a shaman to show up and complete the ritual.
All that plus the occasional “I refuse to work with people from that caste” plus unx strike and power outages makes doing business in India extremely unpredictable.
Business is all about predictability, trying to make money without ability to predict is called gamble, and business owner don’t like to gamble when they could avoid it.
So to wrap this up.
Unpredictability is what’s killing manufacturing in India. Not infrastructure, not mentality, not corruption, not skilled labor.
It’s UNPREDICTABILITY, in capitalized bold letters.

更见鬼的是，即使有人来帮忙，你也不知道他是否会在来这里的路上，撞到一头奶牛，然后被迫再等8个小时，等待萨满出现并完成仪式。所有这些，再加上偶尔的“我拒绝和那个种姓的人一起工作”，再加上工会罢工和停电，使得在印度做生意变得极其不可预测。
生意完全就是靠可预测性，没有预测性就想赚钱的叫做赌博，企业主不喜欢在明知可避免的情况赌博。
最后总结一下：
不可预测性正在扼杀印度的制造业。不是基础设施，不是思想，不是腐败，不是熟练的劳动力。
大写加粗的单词：不可预测性