[2019-10-21]印度什么时候才能在制造业方面击败中国？

DrSingh , MBBS India & Bachelor of Medicine and Bachelor of Surgery Degrees, JLNMCH, BHAGALPUR (2017)
Most people are answering as if it's never can be possible but they forgot India has grabbed a bigger share most of the time in earlier 1000s of years,it's quite possible but not this decade not even the next decade because we hv missed many trains of development while Chinese are good at making their own of fortunes by themselves.
India's GDP is at 2.6 trillion USD currently while China is at 12 trillion USD ,much ahead of us while when both countries got independence they were almost at same place.
Why it happened so? See most people are accusing democracy but just tell me who has democracy south Korea or north Korea ? And tell me who is more developed ?
Yes democracy slows policies framework but it also decreases probability of disastrous policies.The real reason is India is not China ,the geo-stationary advantage to China was huge .As China goes with liberalization many companies from Japan and south Korea and Taiwan shifted their manufacturing sector in Chinese coastal areas ,it was easy for them to make up and down within one day,while India remained isolated with its poor neighbours like Pakistan Bangladesh srilanka ,the wave of trade development reached china via Japan south Korea and Taiwan but it hasn't reached India yet and truly speaking India never even tried to grab or attract this wave.

DrSingh，印度内外全科医学士
大多数人的回答，好像这永远不可能发生，但他们忘记了印度在1000年前的大部分时间里GDP都是全球排前，这是很有可能的，但不是这十年，甚至不是下一个十年，因为我们错过了许多发展的机遇，而中国人擅长自己创造财富。
印度的国内生产总值目前为2.6万亿美元，而中国为12万亿美元，远远领先于我们，而当两国获得独立时，它们几乎处于同一水平。
为什么会这样？ 看到大多数人都在指责民主，但是告诉我谁有民主，南朝鲜还是北朝鲜？ 然后告诉我谁更发达？
是的，民主减缓了政策框架，但也降低了出现灾难性政策的可能性。真正的原因是印度不是中国，中国的地缘平稳优势是巨大的。随着中国走向自由化，许多来自日本、南韩和台湾的公司将他们的制造业转移到中国沿海地区，对他们来说很容易在一天之内把事情解决，而印度与其贫穷的邻国如巴基斯坦，孟加拉，斯里兰卡保持孤立。贸易发展的浪潮经由日本、韩国和台湾到达中国大陆，但它还没有到达印度，说实话，印度从未试图抓住或吸引这一股浪潮。

Due to pok captured by Pakistan and not allowing India to trade through it ,cut Indian export market to central Asia (a huge potential).
Yes there are many policies mistakes too that hindered india to show the miracle China has shown.
When India was fighting for basic literacy Chinese leader Mao brought a educational revolution in china
India almost has 224 million people poised to get into higher education and of the age group of (10–19 years) but only 18% actually reached into the college or University or some other Higher education system(sad but true)
When India was fighting with emergency and political vendettas China keep concentrating on its infrastructure
-when India was suffering from licence Raj China brought huge foreign direct investment to beijing and Shanghai
- India directly jumped from agriculture sector to service sector just to assist USA IT sector Chinese focused on manufacturing sector and today it is ruling global manufacturing sector
While Indian politicians were busy playing casteism caste of sc st and obc china was giving jobs to deserved ones.
India’s reservation policy is an absolute disadvantage. The people are given Jobs on the basis of their caste and not on their family’s income or efficiency. That’s the modern form of discrimination in India.

由于巴基斯坦控制了克什米尔，不允许印度通过巴基斯坦进行贸易，削减了印度对中亚的出口市场(这是一个巨大的潜力)。是的，也有许多政策失误阻碍了印度展示中国所展示的奇迹。当印度为人均识字而努力时，中国领导人毛在中国掀起了一场教育革命。印度几乎有2.24亿人准备接受高等教育，年龄在10-19岁之间，但实际上只有18% 的人进入了大学或其他高等教育系统(可悲但确实如此)。
当印度在应对紧急情况和政治仇恨时，中国一直专注于基础设施建设。当印度遭遇执照制度时，中国为北京和上海带来了巨额的外国直接投资。
印度从农业国家直接跳到服务业国家，仅仅是为了帮助美国的IT业，中国专注于制造业，今天它正在统治全球的制造业。
当印度的政客们忙着玩种姓制度的游戏时，中国却在给那些当之无愧的人提供工作。
印度的保留政策是一个绝对的劣势。人们获得工作的根据是他们的种姓，而不是他们的家庭收入或工作效率。 这就是印度现代形式的歧视。

Amar
Not really . I like India and wish 1.3 billions Indians to live in rich country
But reality is harsh .
1 .China/India economic gap is increasing .
India was richer than China in 1990 . Now , China is 5 times richer .
We can’t predict future . If you trace economists future prediction back to 20-th century , it is very bad . Just few years ago ,around 2009–2010 lots of economists believed that Brazil will become next USA . Now most of them agree that Brazil is typical corrupt developing country which likely remain developing country for long time .
Hence we cant predict future , all we have is past result . Check that . First nominal GDP per capita . China/India gap was 0.9 in 1990 , 2 in 2000 , 3.3 in 2009 , 4.8 in 2018 . Now check GDP (PPP) per capita China/India gap was 0.5 in 1980 , 0.8 in 1990 , 1.4 in 2000 , 2 in 2009 , 2.3 in 2018 .
Both nominal and PPP GDP per capita gap between China and India is increasing .

Amar
不尽然。我喜欢印度，希望有13亿印度人生活在富裕的国家。
但现实是残酷的。
1. 中国和印度的经济差距正在扩大。
1990年印度比中国富裕，现在中国比印度富裕了5倍。
我们无法预测未来。 如果你把经济学家对未来的预测追溯到20世纪，那就非常糟糕了。 就在几年前，也就是2009-2010年左右，许多经济学家认为巴西将成为下一个美国。 现在大多数人都认为巴西是一个典型的腐败的发展中国家，很可能长期处于发展中国家的地位。
因此我们不能预测未来，我们所拥有的只是基于过去的结果。看看以下。
1、名义人均国内生产总值。 中印之间的差距在1990年为0.9，2000年为2，2009年为3.3，2018年为4.8。 现在看看人均国内生产总值中印之间的差距，1980年为0.5，1990年为0.8，2000年为1.4，2009年为2，2018年为2.3。
可以看出中国和印度之间的名义GDP和人均购买力平价GDP差距都在不断扩大。

2 .India’s economy is slowing down at very low level .
All we hear in Western media is China economic slowdown . But in fact , India economy is slowing faster than China . India 2nd quarter 2019 GDP growth slowed down to 5% . It is lower than China’s 6.2% growth . Is this because of trade war ? Definitely no . Indian foreign trade is far lower than China .
China’s economy is slowing down at middle income country level .India’s economy is slowing down at very low level .
3. Only countries successfully industrialized under democracy is small homogeneous Western European countries like Swiss , Denmark
I think West want to see democratic India more successful than authoritarian China . But only time will tell . If democratic India will remain developing country and authoritarian China will become rich developing country , it will be another huge blow to declining democracy reputation.

2、印度的经济正在以非常低的水平放缓。
我们在西方媒体上听到的都是关于中国经济放缓。 但事实上，印度经济放缓的速度比中国快。印度2019年第二季度 GDP 增速放缓至5% 。 这低于中国6.2% 的增长率。这是因为贸易战吗？ 绝对不是。 印度的对外贸易远远低于中国。
中国正以中等收入国家的经济水平放缓，而印度经济正在以非常低的水平放缓。
3、只有像瑞士、丹麦这样的同质小国才能在民主制度下成功地实现工业化。
我认为西方是希望看到民主的印度比专制的中国更成功。但只有时间才能告诉我们答案。如果民主的印度仍然是发展中国家，专制的中国将成为富裕的发展中国家，这将是对民主声誉下降的又一个巨大打击。

4 . India is not following the way of developed countries
China is following the way of Western Europe, USA,Japan,Asian Tigers developed . First industrialize and then develope service sector . Now China’s manufacturing sector is largest in the World and slowing down in recent years . It is the service sector is carrying China economy in recent years .
Indian development is focused on service sector like IT . But there is one big problem . Indian manufacturing sector is still weak . You can’t successfully develope service sector when your manufacturing sector is weak . No big developed economies did not do this .

4、印度没有效仿发达国家的做法。
中国正沿着西欧、美国、日本、亚洲四小龙的道路发展。先实现工业化，再发展服务业。 现在中国的制造业是世界上最大的，而且近年来在放缓。这是近年来服务业承载着中国经济的基础。
印度的发展主要集中在像 IT 这样的服务行业。但有一个大问题，印度制造业仍然疲软。 当你的制造业处于弱势时，你不可能成功地发展服务业。 没有哪个大型发达经济体不是先发展制造业。

Borislav Agapiev , former Senior Design Engineer at Intel (1992-1995)
India’s economy could match, or even surpass China’s economy, but not until India starts generating domestic capital in MUCH larger quantities.
It is a fact not well understood that China has been able to carry out its tremendous transformation from a rather poor third-world country to a leading economic powerhouse be generating huge amounts of domestic capital. It is NOT the case that they built all the factories, skyscrapers, highways, bridges and high-speed railways from their foreign reserves - they have been stable for years and are now actually declining.
China used their reserves just as a base for gigantic leverage reflected in their banking assets. Note how the bulk of this stunning increase happened since the Great Economic Crisis of 2008, when China reflated its economy with humongous stimulus, pulling along the rest of the world. Before then they were only catching up with the US.

Borislav Agapiev ，前英特尔高级设计工程师(1992-1995)
印度的经济可能赶上甚至超过中国，但要等到印度开始产生大量的国内资本。
中国能够实现从一个相当贫穷的第三世界国家，向一个正在创造巨额国内资本的主要经济强国的巨大转变，这是一个没有被很好理解的事实。他们用外汇储备建造了所有的工厂、摩天大楼、高速公路、桥梁和高铁，但事实并非如此——他们的外汇储备多年来一直保持稳定，现在实际上正在下降。
中国将其外汇储备作为巨大杠杆的基础，这反映在它们的银行资产上。 请注意，自2008年金融危机以来，这种惊人的增长是如何发生的。当时，中国通过大规模刺激措施推动经济再膨胀，拉动了世界其它地区。 在此之前，他们只是在追赶美国。

India does not generate enough domestic capital, not even close to China. Its ratio of bank assets to GDP is around 69%, with economy roughly one fifth the size of China’s. And it is not for exports of capital, which are definitely sizable, but still pale in comparison to massive exports of Chinese capital.
The problem is NOT in export of capital, but in generation of it. This is the core problem of all undeveloped countries, they think they are poor by definition because they lack some mythical riches of the developed world such as gold reserves, things forcibly expropriated from them through the centuries etc.
They continually refuse to acknowledge that the principal thing they lack is capital, worth trillions of dollars, euros, yuans and yens created out of thin air by contemporary banking systems.
The riches of the developed world will continue to elude India and many other less developed countries until they master this banking art.

印度没有产生足够的国内资本，甚至接近不了中国。其银行资产占 GDP 的比例约为69% ，经济规模约为中国的五分之一。 资本输出虽然规模庞大，但与中国资本的大规模输出相比，仍然相形见绌。
问题不在于资本输出，而在于资本的产生。 这是所有欠发达国家的核心问题——他们认为自己贫穷的原因是他们缺乏发达国家神话般的财富，比如黄金储备，几个世纪以来被强行征用的东西等等。
他们一直拒绝承认，他们缺乏的主要是资本，价值数万亿的美元、欧元、人民币和日元，这些都是现代银行系统凭空创造出来的。
在印度和其他许多欠发达国家掌握了这门银行业艺术之前，它们将继续远离发达国家的财富。

Honus Wagner , B.S SICP - Structure And Interpretation Of Computer Programs, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (2018)
Before 1949, a bicycle, a car, a toy, a chocolate, a fertilizer, a missile, a ship, a warship, or a satellite could not be built. China was a farmer at the time.
However, in 1949-1956, they had been able to build airplanes, cars, and steel for just seven years, and they had built railroads as long as the entire Japanese (2018)railway. They carried out a land revolution, confiscated the land of the capitalist and distributed it to the peasants. Greatly increased the enthusiasm of farmers. During the period of 1950-1953, they also repelled the army of more than a dozen countries including the United States in North Korea. It made the United States sign the armistice agreement for the first time. Do you dare to believe that a country that has failed so far can repel an army of more than a dozen countries? Then they were able to launch missiles and satellites in 1960, and by 1964 they could actually drop the atomic bombs. Even more incredible is that they only invented the hydrogen bomb in three years. Other countries have basically spent about a decade. And the hydrogen bombs designed in China can be preserved for a long time. China is currently the only country in the world that normally preserves hydrogen bombs.
Never underestimate China, a country that has been strong for thousands of years. They seem to have failed because they have just begun.

Honus Wagner 麻省理工学院，计算机程序的架构和解释
中国在1949年以前，自行车、汽车、玩具、巧克力、化肥、导弹、轮船、军舰或卫星都无法建造。 当时的中国是一个农业国家。
然而，在1949-1956年间，他们仅仅用了7年时间就制造了飞机、汽车和钢铁，而且他们建造的铁路和整个日本(2018年)的铁路一样长。他们进行了土地改革，没收了资本家的土地，分配给农民。大大提高了农民的积极性。在1950年至1953年期间，他们还击退了包括美国在内的十几个驻朝鲜国家的军队。这使得美国首次签署了停战协定。你敢相信一个迄今为止都是失败的国家能击退十几个国家联合的军队吗？然后他们在1960年发射了导弹和卫星，到了1964年，他们真的可以投下原子弹了。 更不可思议的是，他们只用了三年时间就发明了氢弹。其他国家基本上花了十年左右的时间。 中国设计的氢弹可以保存很长时间，中国是目前世界上唯一一个能正常保存氢弹的国家。
永远不要低估中国，一个几千年来一直强大的国家。他们似乎失败过，因为他们才刚刚开始。

Krishna Prasad Chitrapura , Entrepreneur, Scientist at Cuspera, Qikwell, Yahoo! Labs, IBM Research (2000-present)
Most of the answers here I feel are based on current micro conditions, which can be misleading. For example, China used the easily available debt and build infrastructure to power its stunning economic growth through manufacturing, whereas India is growing mainly based on services. Global services economy is yet to peak, where as manufacturing has already peaked. That being said, I feel history repeats itself. If we look at India’s and China’s share of world GDP for last 2000 years, we see this (Graph courtesy John Cate):
Actually, these two economies have been neck to neck most of time and in macro levels, trending the same way. In the First millennium after BC, these country minded their own business and economy was driven by traders coming from west in search of these wonder lands. Since the middle of the last millennium, both these economies were hit due to imperialism and were looted, bottoming out in mid 1950′s before China’s resurgence in the last 25 years.

Krishna Prasad Chitrapura ，企业家，雅虎实验室科学家，IBM 研究(2000年至今)
我觉得这里的大多数答案都是基于当前的微观条件，这可能会产生误导。 例如，中国利用容易获得的债务和基础设施，通过制造业为其惊人的经济增长提供动力，而印度的增长主要依靠服务业。全球服务业经济尚未见顶，而制造业已经见顶。也就是说，我觉得历史会重演，如果我们对比过去两千年中印度和中国在世界 GDP 中所占的份额。
实际上，这两个经济体在大多数时候里都是并驾齐驱的，在宏观层面上呈现相同的趋势。在公元前后的第一个千年，这两个国家专注于他们自己的事业和经济，是来自西方的商人来寻找这些神奇的土地时推动的。自上个千年中期以来，这两个经济体都受到帝国主义的打击和掠夺，在20世纪50年代中期触底反弹，中国在过去25年中复苏。

Will India do the same? It depends on how well we capitalise on our young population, how well we educate, integrate and motivate them to take the world’s service industry in next 20 years.
All said, its for sure that this century belongs to Asia!

印度也会这样吗？ 这取决于我们如何充分利用我们的年轻人口，如何更好地教育、整合和激励他们在未来20年进入全球服务业。所有人都曾说，这个世纪肯定属于亚洲！

Gaurav Sharma , PGY-1 Internal Medicine at University of South Alabama College of Medicine (2019-present)
Although china has done tremendous job and its very ambitious goal for India.
The only thing which I would like to add is India has never opened up its all horizons and still its 6th larges in terms of nominal GDP (going to be 5th by the end of this year). I call it organic growth of India which might look very slow and time taking but its very healthy for nature and consumers.
Once India unfolds all horizon (mainly manufacturing, establishing strong supply chain, revamping infrastructure, expanding current service sector, reducing trade deficit with current trade partners, doubling soft power) I think it would not be very difficult as it seems now. And we are doing it step by step.
Currently china is in a state of bit saturation, it can be very well observed by CPEC and other initiatives by china to establish trade with other countries. But India need not to do that for at least a decade because we have not yet shown our full potential with current global trade partners. Although adding new partners is always beneficial but addressing current trade gap is much more important.

Gaurav Sharma 南阿拉巴马大学医学院 PGY-1内科 （2019-至今）
尽管中国给印度定了大量的工作和雄心勃勃的目标。
我唯一想补充的是，印度从来没有开放过它的全部领域，在名义 GDP 方面仍然是第六大国(到今年年底将成为第五大国)。我称之为印度的有机增长，它可能看起来非常缓慢，需要时间，但它对自然和消费者非常健康。
一旦印度全面展开(主要是制造业、建立强大的供应链、改造基础设施、扩大现有的服务业、减少与现有贸易伙伴的贸易逆差、将软实力提高一倍) ，我认为这不会像现在看起来那么困难。 我们正在一步一步地做这些事。
中国目前有点处于饱和状态，从中巴经济走廊和与其他国家建立对外贸易的倡议，都能很好地观察到这一现象。 但印度至少在十年内不需要这样做，因为我们尚未在当前的全球贸易伙伴中，充分展示我们的潜力。 虽然增加新的合作伙伴总是好的，但解决当前的贸易逆差更为重要。

We have every platform ready because of diversity in out culture and thoughts: Because of democracy if you look india is doing good in every direction. We have done good in IT, car manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, science, entertainment, art and culture, heathcare, catching up in tourism and lot other areas. Each and every sector is improving, recently Tata consultancy became 100 billion dollar market cap and have entered in elite group of software companies. TCS hits $100 billion market cap: Does this mark a new phase of growth for India Inc? There are many more to come and this has instilled some positivity and competitiveness in the mind of other IT companies in India.
Reforms and corruption on the go: We just need a push in terms of reforms, which happened with very slow pace till now, but now the dynamics of reforms have changes in past 2–3 years since NDA government. Taxations has improved in 2017–18 fiscal year. Growth since 1990s in india is mainly due to private sector because of corruption in government, but in private sectors there is negligible corruption. Now government is also moving in right direction by using technology. Everyone is far better and as people are traveling and global trade is increasing they are learning the work culture and ethics.

由于我们文化和思想的多样性，我们已经准备好了所有的平台：因为民主，如果你看看印度，它在各个方面都做得很好。我们在信息技术、汽车制造、医药、科学、娱乐、文化艺术、健身、旅游等方面做得很好。每个部门都在进步，最近塔塔公司的市值达到了1000亿美元，并进入了软件公司的精英集团。塔塔的市值达到1000亿美元的事情，是否标志着印度公司增长的新阶段？未来还会有更多公司加入，这给印度其它 IT 公司注入了一些积极性和竞争力。
改革与腐败: 我们只需要在改革方面推动一下，到目前为止改革的步伐非常缓慢，但是现在改革的动力在过去的2-3年已经发生了变化。 2017-18财政年度税收情况有所改善。 自20世纪90年代以来，印度的经济增长主要归功于私营部门，因为政府存在腐败现象，但在私营部门，腐败现象微不足道。 现在，政府也在利用技术朝着正确的方向前进。 每个人的生活都好得多，随着人们的旅行和全球贸易的增长，他们正在学习工作文化和道德。

Greendex score: India is on top, this score indicate sustainable living and India is already doing it much better than China and USA. We only need to clean out surroundings because of overpopulation maintaining cleanliness is a challenge but we can do it.
In short we all know that India is slow in reforms and that is due to big, uneducated, poor population, we were slaves < 70 years ago, our government has not been corruption free or capitalistic, differences in language and cultures, still fighting with tuberculosis, still millions living in slums or remote villages, have bad neighbors, caste system.
There are so many problems in India, a lot of them have been addressed. China too had problems but they can never be bigger than India’s problem. But still somehow we have managed to keep ourself growing fast and catching up with the world.

绿色指数: 印度排名第一，这表明印度生活是可持续的，印度已经比中国和美国做得好得多。我们只需要清洁周围的环境，因为人口过剩，保持环境的清洁是一个挑战，但我们可以做到这一点。
简而言之，我们都知道印度在改革方面进展缓慢，这是由于庞大的、未受过教育的、贫穷的人口，我们的政府没有摆脱腐败或是资本主义，语言和文化上的差异，仍然在与肺结核作斗争，仍然有数百万人生活在贫民窟或偏远的村庄,。
印度有很多问题，其中很多已经得到了解决。中国也有问题，但它们的程度永远不可能超过印度的问题。 但无论如何，我们仍然设法保持我们自己的快速增长和继续追赶世界。

Showing such a strong growth with all these problems is itself an Indication of a very mature country and strong determination. All the credit goes to our culture which have produced highly educated students without facilities like Harvard or Cornell. At the end I think our culture is the key to become a superpower. Because in terms of GDP countries can go up and down but in terms of tackling problems with patience and taking everyone towards a better, peaceful life is the indicator of highly developed country which we all forget.
In short India can easily beat china in terms of GDP. But in certain way (non-materialistic way) we are far ahead of everyone in development race.

在所有这些问题中还表现出如此强劲的增长，这本身就是一个非常成熟的国家和坚强决心的标志。 所有的功劳都归功于我们的文化，我们培养出了受过高等教育的学生，却没有像哈佛或康奈尔这样的设施。 最后，我认为我们的文化是成为超级大国的关键。 因为就国内生产总值而言，国家可能会起起落落，但就耐心解决问题和带领每个人过上更美好、和平的生活而言，这是我们大家都忘记的高度发达国家的指标。
简而言之，就GDP而言，印度可以轻松击败中国。但在某种程度上(非唯物主义的方式) ，我们在发展竞赛中遥遥领先于所有人。

Samar Arora , Fund Manager (2018-present)
Well first of all Indian economy and chinese economy have their differences. While India is a consumer based economy China is an export based economy. India’s GDP strength comes from increasing incomes and increaing consumption wheareas china makes it buck by supplying to the whole world. In india MPC is at 68–70% wheareas in china it is close to 40%. But as of this date Chinese economy is nearly 5 times as big as the indian economy. India is at $ 2.45 trillion and china is at $ 12.43 trillion.
What has led to India overtaking china debate is that since financial crisis 2008 global growth has subdued and it is shown in china falling gdp growth rate. Chinese economy before 2008 used to grow at 9–10% per annum. But since the last 10 years USA is in recession which has led to chinese economy growth falling to 6.5%.
But even if chinese economy continues to grow at 6.5% and indian economy grows at 8% still India wouldn’t overtake chinese economy even by 2060.

Samar Arora ，基金经理(2018年至今)
首先，印度经济和中国经济是有区别的。虽然印度是一个以消费为基础的经济体，但中国是一个以出口为基础的经济体。印度 GDP 增长的动力来自于收入的增加和消费的增加，而中国则通过向全世界供应来获利。 在印度，边际产量是68-70%，在中国是接近40% 。但到目前为止，中国的经济规模几乎是印度的5倍。 印度是2.45万亿美元，中国是12.43万亿美元。
自2008年金融危机以来，全球经济增长放缓，中国的 gdp 增长率下降，这就产生了印度超越中国的争论。 2008年以前，中国经济以每年9-10% 的速度增长。 但过去10年来，美国经济陷入衰退，导致中国经济增长率降至6.5% 。
但即使中国经济继续以6.5% 的速度增长，而印度经济以8% 的速度增长，印度也不可能在2060年超过中国。

Prashant Chandravanshi , Lives in Bihar, India
No, never. Whenever I hear people saying that our country is gonna become a superpower, our economy is gonna outperform China’s, or our country is gonna become a $5 trillion or $10 trillion economy, honestly it makes me sneer. It is not that I am a frustrated, educated, unemployed graduate,who gloats over his country’s failures like a sore loser. It is that kind of sneer you display, when you hear people cherishing unattainable, unrealistic goals. I know everyone has a right to dream of whatever goals, they wish, but at least they must be based on ground reality.

Prashant Chandravanshi 生活在印度比哈尔邦
不，从来不会。每当我听到有人说我们的国家要成为超级大国，我们的经济要超过中国，或者我们的国家要成为一个5万亿或10万亿美元的经济体，老实说，这让我感到不寒而栗。 这并不是说我是一个沮丧的、受过教育的但失业的大学毕业生，像一个输不起的人一样，幸灾乐祸地看着自己国家的失败。当你听到人们怀着遥不可及、不切实际的目标时，你表现出的就是那种嘲笑。 我知道每个人都有权利梦想他们想要的任何目标，但至少他们必须基于现实。

Josh Mellott , Informed Citizen, Explorer
I don’t think it will for a while. India is sort of where China was 15–20 years ago, but I think they will follow a similar path to development, just expect India to reach every milestone China reaches around 15–20 years later. Eventually when China’s economic growth slows down because they have reached peak development, India will catch up. I think the two might have similar-sized economies by mid-century, but we will see.
China might slowdown, and India’s growth could speed up. India arguably has fewer obstacles to development than China because it is a democracy and has a young and growin...

Josh Mellott 、见多识广的公民、探险家
我认为暂时不会超过中国。印度有点像15-20年前的中国，但我认为他们会走类似的发展道路，只是期望印度在15-20年后达到中国的每一个里程碑。 最终，当中国经济增长达到顶峰而放缓时，印度将迎头赶上。 我认为，到本世纪中叶，中美两国的经济规模可能会相当，但我们将拭目以待。
中国经济可能放缓，印度经济可能加速增长。 可以说，印度的发展障碍比中国少，因为它是一个民主国家，而且年轻、正在成长...

Kakyn Khok , lives in Petaling Jaya, Malaysia
Unlikely.
Ask any Chinese and every Chinese knows which directions the country is heading and they're mostly in congruence. Most Chinese who studied overseas go back to contribute to Chinese economy and build better lives for their own people. Chinese are proud to serve the country.
Ask any Indian same question and you're unlikely to get common answer. Indians probably can't agree on basic thing like a common Indian language. Most talented Indians seek to leave India to Western countries for better lives instead of stay and build a better India. Indian are proud to migrate.
Everyone can easily make a Chinese brand with global significance and can you name a single Indian brand famous outside India?

Kakyn Khok ，居住在马来西亚的八打灵再也
不太可能。
随便问一个中国人，每个中国人都知道这个国家正朝着哪个方向前进，他们的回答大多是一致的。 大多数留学海外的中国人回国是为了为中国经济做贡献，为自己的人民创造更好的生活。 中国人以服务国家为荣。
问任何一个印度人同样的问题，你不太可能得到普遍的答案。 印度人可能无法在一些基本的事情上达成一致，比如共同的印度语言。 大多数有才华的印度人寻求离开印度到西方国家寻求更好的生活，而不是留下来建设一个更好的印度。 印度人以移民为荣。
每个人都可以容易地说出一个具有全球意义的中国品牌，你能说出一个在印度以外的印度知名品牌吗？

Konark Karna , MSc Advance Computer Science & Data Science, Northumbria University
In the battle of swords, you won’t win with drumsticks.
Although, GDP growth of India and China might look similar, 6.6 and 6.9, respectively but China is maintaining 6.9% growth rate with 12 trillion economy vis-a-vis India’s 2.59 trillion.
China already has developed infrastructure for future, India still has to. That will take a lot of investment or loan from World bank, Japan or maybe China.
Foreign investment in China is massive in comparison with what in India. Foreign investment in China is to make products for entire world, whereas foreign investment in India is just to capitalize domestic market. India is barely making money from foreign market.
China has invested heavily around the globe. In fact, China is world’s biggest investor in 2019. All those investment is going to start pay back down the line. India hasn’t invested anywhere (Ok. A few millions in Nepal and Africa)

Konark Karna 诺桑比亚大学 计算机科学与数据科学硕士
在刀剑之战中，你不可能靠鼓槌取胜。
尽管印度和中国的 GDP 增长看起来相似，分别为6.6% 和6.9% ，但中国保持着6.9% 的增长率，与印度的2.59万亿相比，中国的经济总量达12万亿美元。
中国已经发展了未来的基础设施，印度也仍然需要这样做。 这将需要世界银行、日本或中国的大量投资或贷款。与印度相比，中国的外国投资规模巨大。外国在中国的投资是为全世界生产产品，而外国在印度的投资只是为了利用印度国内市场。 印度几乎不能从国外市场赚钱。
中国在全球范围内进行了大量投资。事实上，中国是2019年世界上最大的投资国。 所有这些投资最终都会得到回报。 印度没有在任何地方投资。(好吧，印度在尼泊尔和非洲只有几百万的投资)

China is getting prepared for the challenges that lies ahead 50–100 years in time. Indian govt is focused on bringing back lost Hindu glory. If India will not start thinking now, all climate change and environmental problems lying ahead would rather demand trillions in just to maintain order.
China’s education expenditure is like 6 times of India, and Chinese healthcare expenditure is 10 times of India. In future, China will have manifold of educated healthy citizens than India to churn economic wheel further. India will be lagging behind way below.
Conclusion: No. Difference between Indian and Chinese economy is going to broaden up in future, and India will have Indonesia as competition very soon.

中国正准备迎接未来50-100年的挑战。印度政府致力于恢复失去的印度荣耀。如果印度现在不开始思考，未来所有的气候变化和环境问题将需要数万亿美元才能维持。
中国的教育支出相当于印度的6倍，中国的医疗支出相当于印度的10倍。 未来，中国将拥有比印度更多受过良好教育的健康公民，进一步推动经济车轮的前进。而印度将远远落后。
结论：不会打败。印度与中国经济的差距在未来还将进一步扩大，印度很快就会与印尼展开竞争了。

Umesh Kumar Rai , BE from Army Institute of Technology (2007)
No way.
Look at their source of revenue and compare with India’s.
Look at their innovation, Industrialization, infrastructures and compare with India’s. India is way way way behind in every front.
Chinese tourism industry alone is almost half of the overall Indian export value.
Their export is more than $2.5 trillion a year and US along purchase Chinese goods worth $550bn a year.
They maintained the growth rate of double digits for more than 3 decades. Else India and China’s situation was similar until late 70s. In fact China’s situation was even bad compared to India.
But due to their high growth rate for so many decades, they have gone too far from our reach now. the world keep saying that we are the fastest growing economy with closed to 8%. But we are $2.62 tr economy and China is $12.6 tr economy. China is growing at around 6.5% a year. not bad when the world’s major economy is struggling to maintain the growth of even 3 or 4%. so, 6.5% of Chinese economy is much more than India’s 8%.
We will definitely grow as we are growing but to catch up China is unimaginable until something very bad happens to the Chinese economy(and we remain unaffected at that time).

Umesh Kumar Rai，来自陆军理工学院(2007)
不可能。
看看他们的收入来源，然后与印度比较一下。
看看他们的创新、工业化、基础设施，与印度相比。 印度在各个方面都远远落后。
仅中国的旅游业就几乎占印度出口总值的一半。
中国每年的出口额超过2.5万亿美元，美国每年购买的中国商品价值5500亿美元。
30多年来，他们一直保持着两位数的增长率。另外，印度和中国的情况直到70年代末都是相似的。事实上，与印度相比，中国的情况那时更糟糕。
但是由于他们几十年来的高增长率，他们现在已经把我们甩开太远了。世界一直说我们是增长最快的经济体，增长率接近8% 。 但是我们的经济规模是2.62万亿美元，而中国是12.6万亿美元。 中国正以每年6.5% 的速度增长。 在世界主要经济体难以维持3% 或4% 的增长率的情况下，这已经算不错了。 因此，中国经济的6.5% 远远高于印度的8% 。
我们肯定会随着经济增长而增长，但要赶上中国是不可想象的，除非中国经济出现非常糟糕的情况(如果那时我们没受到影响)。

Sharique Naseem , Read dozens of book on Economics
Okay, if by now you are satisfied with the Indianness within you, let's find the truth.
Indian Economy will not overcome China, even by 2050 or even later. Why so?
Headstart.
What Indian Economy has been doing for doing for last decade, China had started back in 1980s.
You can not overcome such a big gap, unless You have more working people, or Your technology is far superior
Why so?
You see GDP is gross domestic product. It's a very simple term and gives away everything.
It's gross(overall) vlaue of domestic (withing boundaries) products(agricultural, industrial, services) added in a year.
So unless you have more producing hands, or technology to complement lack of hands, you have very few other option.
We know that India does not have any population advantage over China and India is not near to China in terms of technology advancement.
So, in simple terms India is not going to over take China in terms of economy, not in near future and not in next few decades.
The other option: Well if we go to war and we end up on winning side, but I don't see any full fledged war taking place.
But don't worry.
We will third biggest Economy in next decade. However standard of life will not be anyway third, why?
Just like we have more hands to produce, we have more mouth to feed.

Sharique Naseem ，阅读数十本经济学书籍
好吧，如果你现在对你内心的印度印象感到满意，那么让我们找出真相。
即使到2050年甚至更晚，印度经济也无法战胜中国。 为什么会这样？
让我们开始吧。
印度经济在过去十年中所做的事情，中国早在20世纪80年代就已经开始了。
你不可能克服这么大的差距，除非你有更多的工作人员，或者你的技术更优越。
为什么会这样？
你看GDP，意思是国内生产总值。 这是一个非常简单的术语，它可以让你知道一切，它表示一年内国内(境内)产品(农业、工业、服务业)增加值。
因此，除非你有更多的生产人员，或者技术来补充缺乏人手的情况，否则你几乎没有其他选择。
我们知道，相对于中国，印度没有任何人口优势，而且印度在技术进步方面与中国相距甚远。
因此，简而言之，印度不会在经济上超过中国，不会在不久的将来，也不会在未来几十年内超过中国。
另一种选择是：如果我们发生战争，而我们最终站在获胜一方，但我不认为会发生任何全面的战争。
不过别担心。
我们将在未来十年成为第三大经济体。 然而生活的标准无论如何都不会是第三，为什么呢？
就像我们要更多的手生产一样，我们也要养活更多的嘴巴。

Gulshan Kumar Chandra , B.A.SOCIAL SCIENCE Regional Institute of Education, Ajmer, Banaras Hindu University (2018)
no but there is still very light chance
i believe India wouldn't overcome china in 21st century until and unless their is some massive uprising or political instability in china which shaken him totally, although i not expect these to happen. why India cannot overcome china despite its demographic dividend?
diversity and democracy in India
work culture in both country which is largely defined by cultural and social factors, India have great diversity in all aspect which hinders its fast growth as achieved by china, and 2nd because of its diversity and democracy India cannot centralized beyond certain limit which again hinders economic development and 3rd great election in India further limit our government efficiency and commitment for a long term economic growth.
demographic dividend or disaster

Gulshan Kumar Chandra ，地区教育研究所，瓦拉纳西印度大学(2018)
虽说不会，但还是有很小的机会
我相信印度不会在21世纪战胜中国，除非中国发生大规模的起义或政治动荡，彻底动摇了他，尽管我不认为这些事情会发生。尽管它有人口红利，为什么印度不能战胜中国？
印度的多样性和民主。
这两国的工作文化在很大程度上都是由文化和社会因素决定的，印度各方面的差异很大，这阻碍了印度实现像中国那样的快速发展，第二，由于其多样性和民主性，印度的中央集权不能超过一定的限度，这再次阻碍了印度的经济发展，第三，印度大选进一步限制了我国政府的效率和对长期经济增长的承诺。
人口红利还是人口灾难。

lot have been talked about demographic dividend but their is another term demographic disaster it says fast growing population would be a disaster if they not get skill education and employment and as we can see educational system and employment sector is in deep crisis for long time in India if it continue demographic dividend become disaster.
infrastructural and technological gap
most of us know that gap between India and china in technology and infrastructure is huge it take at least 20 years to fill it,it china remain idle but fact is that china keep growing and at least for coming two decades we cannot see any change in that gap.high speed railway is a classic example in which china has more than 2/3 of worlds high speed rail system India is still planning.
what keep china above India?
china have a much more potential left

很多人都在谈论人口红利，但在中国是另一个术语，人口灾难，它说，快速增长的人口将是一场灾难，如果他们没有得到技能教育和就业，正如我们可以看到印度的教育系统和就业部门长期处于深度危机，如果继续下去的话，人口红利将成为人口灾难。
基础设施和技术差距。
我们大多数人都知道印度和中国在技术和基础设施方面的差距是巨大的，如果中国无所事事，印度至少需要20年才能填补，但事实是中国在不断增长，至少在未来20年我们看不到任何改变。
是什么让中国的经济高于印度？中国还有更大的潜力。

there are many factors first are those which shows china is not a fired canon it holds immense potential still now,half of Chinese still live in village so there would be no labor shortage as it depicted for at least two decade,china also abolished one child system it may bring some relief,most aspiring sector is innovation china knows time of labor induced growth have gone so he concentrate on technology specially those which would shape world in coming days like artificial intelligence space technology biotechnology, Chinese leaders are working hard to make it technology giant like japan,which would facilitate growth of Chinese economy for longer duration.
political reasons
second political, we generally mistake that with slowing down growth Chinese people would revolt against ccp but its not the case. even ordinary Chinese knows that its not possible to get double digit growth all the time and Chinese even acknowledge fact what ccp have done in past four decades most noticeable point is that ccp realize that and under xi jinping ccp is trying to evolve as a party dedicate to people by measures such as anti corruption drive and poverty alleviation.
conclusion
because of Chinese GDP is 5 times larger than Indian and it still have potential its unlikely that India would surpass Chinese economic might in 21st century, but nothing is impossible it might be happen in two unlikely scenario first India achieve near double digit growth for at least 4 decade or china get indulge in historic political crises and dismantle like USSR. both of them are unlikely i so thought at the end Indian economy may be below Chinese but it would close much of the gap between them, so cold war like situation may prevail between us.

首先，有很多因素表明中国不是一个正在衰退的典型，它仍然拥有巨大的潜力，现在仍然有一半的中国人生活在农村，所以至少20年不会出现劳动力短缺，中国也废除了一孩政策，它可能会带来一些缓解，最有抱负的产业是创新。中国知道劳动诱导的增长时代已经过去了，所以他开始专注于技术，特别是那些将在未来日子里塑造世界的技术，如人工智能，空间技术，生物技术，中国领导人正在努力使中国成为像日本那样的科技巨头，这将有利于中国经济持续更长时间的增长。
其次，在政治上，我们通常错误地认为，随着经济增长放缓，中国人民会反抗CCP，但事实并非如此。 即使是普通的中国人也知道不可能一直保持两位数的增长，中国人甚至承认CCP在过去四十年里所做的事情。
结论，因为中国的国内生产总值是印度的5倍，它仍然有潜力，印度不太可能在21世纪超过中国的经济，但没有什么是不可能的，在两种不太可能的情况下，印度是有可能超越的：第一，印度至少在40年内实现接近两位数的增长，或者中国陷入历史性的政治危机，像苏联一样。这两种情况都不太可能，所以我认为最终印度经济可能会低于中国，但它们之间的差距会缩小，所以两国之间可能会出现冷战式的局面。