[2019-10-04]到2050年后，哪些国家将成为世界主要强国？【上】

John Cate , studied at Strayer University
A lot can change in 32 years, but I would guess this, if you mean in a military sense:
Superpowers: USA and China.
Great Powers: UK, France, Russia, Germany, India.
Emerging Powers: Nigeria, Iran, Vietnam, Australia.
And in an economic sense:
Superpowers: USA, China, European Union (led by Germany and France).
Great Powers: UK, Japan, South Korea, India and Russia.
Emerging Powers: Brazil, Vietnam, Australia, Canada.

John Cate ，就读于斯特雷耶大学
32年后会改变很多事情，但我猜，如果你指的是军事意义上的：
超级大国: 美国与中国。
大国: 英国、法国、俄罗斯、德国、印度。
新兴大国: 尼日利亚、伊朗、越南、澳大利亚。
在经济意义上:
超级大国: 美国、中国、欧盟(以德国和法国为首)。
大国: 英国、日本、韩国、印度和俄罗斯。
新兴国家: 巴西、越南、澳大利亚、加拿大。

Jonathan Flynn
Practically impossible for me to be entirely correct, but you can be correct to a certain degree. Barring any significant, unexpected event (I.e nuclear war, massive environmental disaster, aliens) this is my bet at the moment.
Superpowers:1.USA
Outside of any extreme scenario, it is unlikely that America will completely collapse within the next 35 years. America’s gdp remains around 7 trillion USD higher then it’s closest competitor (China of course). It still has the third largest population in the world and it’s unmatched in its sheer military power (especially in spending).
And while many politicians and pundits point to America’s stagnating growth rate and decreasing labor force participation, output is near an all time high and unemployment is near 4%. Still economic isolationism, through protectionism, and anti-immigration sentiment could harm future growth. Other harmful factors include a growing wealth inequality and growing divisions.
China

Jonathan Flynn
对我来说几乎不可能完全确定，但是你可以在一定程度肯定。除非发生任何重大的、意想不到的事件(比如核战争、大规模的环境灾难、外星人等) ，否则这就是我目前的所押注的：
超级大国：1、美国
在任何极端情况之外，美国不太可能在未来35年内完全崩溃。美国的国内生产总值仍然比它最接近的竞争对手(当然是中国)高出7万亿美元。 它仍然是世界上人口第三多的国家，它的军事实力(尤其是军费开支)是无与伦比的。
尽管许多政治家和权威人士指出美国经济增长停滞不前，劳动力参与率下降，但产出接近历史最高水平，失业率接近4% 。 然而，通过保护主义和反移民情绪实行的经济孤立主义可能会损害未来的经济增长。其他有害因素包括，日益严重的财富不平等和日益严重的分化。

2.China:Similarly barring a significant unexpected event there is no logical reason why China will not remain a superpower in 30 years. Projected by some to surpass America in GDP by 2030, China’s economy will regardless be a force to be reasoned with, and has the possibility of gaining significant power in the rest of Asia and the developing world if America chooses to go down a isolationist path. However China’s growth will most likely slowdown from it’s booming rate, as the economy finishes industrializing and shifts into a post-industrial economy. Still potential risks such as China’s massive wealth inequality (same for America) and debt bubble could cause greater class division and harm potential growth.
Outside of plain economic factors, China still has the world’s largest population (soon to be passed by India however) and by that same standard the largest military manpower by a wide margin (exempting the DPRK for good reasons). While China’s military spending is still several hundred billion less of America’s (around $540 billion less) its spending is double that of the next country (Russia).

2、中国，同样，除非发生意想不到的重大事件，有理由说明中国在30年后会保持超级大国的地位。一些人预测，到2030年，中国的 GDP 将超过美国，如果美国选择走上孤立主义道路，中国的经济将成为一股理性的力量，并有可能在亚洲其他地区和发展中国家获得重要影响力。 然而，随着中国经济结束工业化进程，转向后工业化经济，中国的经济增长很可能会从繁荣时期放缓。 然而，中国巨大的财富不平等(美国也一样)和债务泡沫等潜在风险可能会导致更大的阶级分化，并损害潜在的增长。
除了简单的经济因素外，中国仍然是世界上人口最多的国家(不过，印度很快就会超过中国) ，按照同样的标准，中国的军事人力大幅度增加。尽管中国的军费开支仍然比美国少几千亿美元(大约少5400亿美元) ，但中国的军费开支却是下一名国家(俄罗斯)的两倍。 此外，中国在2018年早些时候增加了大约8% 的军费开支，因此这十年中军费开支很可能会周期性地增加。

Global Powers:1.India,There is plenty of optimism surrounding India’s status and there is plenty to worry about as well. India’s population is projected to beat out China’s with in a decade or two. Furthermore its growth is projected to be at around 7–10% for the next 10 years-making it the world’s fastest growing economy for at least the next decade. And unlike China, India possess a stable (relatively so) democracy. Unfortunately for India, its still very poor. India’s nominal GDP per capita is $1,741 USD (according to the world bank). That’s ranked 133th in the world. Taking the cost of living into account that number rises to 113th (for comparison China ranks 66th and 70th respectively). That, plus India’s significant lack of infrastructure, act as huge barrier to its ascension to a super power within 30 years. The other major barrier, is its influence. India’s soft power doesn’t even make the top 30, according to Soft Power 30 2017 Index. This is compared to both China and America, which each make the list (America at 3rd at China at 25th). India’s poverty + lack of infrastructure and weak foreign influence will prevent it from becoming a superpower by 2050. However it will remain a global power and its influence will significantly grow.

全球大国：1、印度。人们对印度的地位充满乐观，同时也有许多令人担忧的问题。 印度的人口预计将在十年或二十年内超过中国的人口。 此外，未来10年，印度的经济增长率预计在7%-10% 左右，至少在未来10年，将成为世界上增长最快的经济体。与中国不同，印度拥有稳定(相对而言)的民主制度。不幸的是，印度仍然非常贫穷。 根据世界银行的数据，印度的名义人均国内生产总值为1741美元。 这在全球排名第133位。 将生活成本计算在内，这一数字上升到第113位(相比之下，中国分别排在第66位和第70位)。再加上印度严重缺乏基础设施，这是印度在30年内成为超级大国的巨大障碍。另一个主要的障碍是它的影响力。 根据2017年软实力30强指数，印度的软实力甚至没有进入前30名。 这与中国和美国相比，两国都位居榜单(美国排在第3位，中国排在第25位)。 印度的贫困 + 缺乏基础设施和外国势力的薄弱将阻碍它在2050年成为超级大国。 然而，印度仍将是一个全球大国，其影响力将显著增长。

2.France.France’s power has certainly diminished over the last century, however it remains a global power, especially in its influence. According to the Soft Power 30 Index, France ranks 1st in 2017, surpassing America this year. France leads this list largely due to their strong international connections, including the EU and its continued connections to its former colonies. Furthermore France still leads the world in tourism and is a major hub for immigration. It’s interventions in West Africa and recent participation in air strikes in Syria show its capability as a military power on the global scale. However rising political extremism and political disconnect could serve to harm France’s future. I’d expect France’s power to stay relative for the next 30 years.
Germany posses the strongest economy in Europe and holds the most influence in the Eurozone.Possessing a strong manufacturing base and a large population growth relative the rest of the developed world (due to strong migration), Germany holds the most promising economy in Europe. Coupled with strong soft power (ranked 4th in 2017) and a capable military, which has the ability to expand in the near, Germany acts as a significant global power in terms of influence. Europe’s influence will decline over the next 30 years, but Germany’s global economic influence will stay strong. Potentials risks include the future of Eurozone with Brexit and divisions related due to the influx of migrants.

2、法国。在过去的一个世纪里，法国的实力可以肯定的是已经减弱，但它仍然是一个全球大国，特别是在其影响力方面。 根据软实力30强指数，法国在2017年排名第一，今年超过了美国。 法国之所以名列前茅，很大程度上是因为他们强大的国际关系，包括欧盟及其与前殖民地的持续联系。 此外，法国在旅游业方面仍然领先世界，并且是主要的移民中心。 它对西非的干预和最近对叙利亚的空袭显示了它作为全球范围军事力量的能力。 然而，不断上升的政治极端主义和政治分歧可能会损害法国的未来。 我预计法国的实力在未来30年内将保持相对地位。
3、德国。德国拥有欧洲最强大的经济体，在欧元区拥有最大的影响力。与其他发达国家相比(由于大量移民) ，德国拥有强大的制造业基础和巨大的人口增长，是欧洲最有前途的经济体。 再加上强大的软实力(2017年排名第四)和有能力在近期扩张的军事实力，德国在全球影响力方面扮演着举足轻重的角色。 未来30年，欧洲的影响力将会下降，但德国的全球经济影响力将保持强劲。 潜在的风险包括欧元区的未来与英国脱欧，以及由于移民涌入而导致的分歧。

4.Brazil.The second largest economy in the Americas and the largest in South America, Brazil holds massive influence over all of Latin America. Coupled with high tourism and a massive amount of amount of natural resources, including large supplies of fresh water, Brazil’s importance will only rise with time. A relatively stable country as well, Brazil is posed for steady growth in the future. However its lack of any real influence outside of Latin America, and recent scandals show that the country still has a long way to come.
5.TurkeySimilar to Brazil, being the largest economy in its region, Turkey is currently playing a massive role when it comes geopolitics, due to proximity to Europe, while being part of the Middle East. Holding a high growth rate (which has faltered recently) and a strong military (Around 10th globally in strength) Turkey holds what it needs for regional control. While I’d normally consider Turkey a regional power, I believe that due to the global attention given to the Middle East, and Turkey’s interactions with Europe, America and Asia, Turkey will have significant power by 2050. However that is significantly threatened by conflict with the Kurds and Erdoğan’s crackdown on democracy. Depending on the actions taken by the government Turkey can become a global power by 2050.

4、巴西。作为美洲第二大经济体和南美洲最大经济体，巴西对整个拉丁美洲拥有巨大的影响力。 再加上大量的旅游业和大量的自然资源，包括大量的淡水供应，巴西的重要性只会随着时间的推移而上升。 作为一个相对稳定的国家，巴西将在未来保持稳定的增长。 然而，它在拉丁美洲以外地区缺乏任何真正的影响力，而且最近的丑闻表明，这个国家还有很长的路要走。
5、土耳其。与巴西一样，作为该地区最大的经济体，土耳其目前在地缘政治方面扮演着重要角色，因为它邻近欧洲，同时又是中东的一部分。 土耳其保持着高增长率(最近有所动摇)和强大的军事力量(全球军事力量约为十分之一) ，拥有地区控制所需要的东西。 虽然我通常认为土耳其是一个地区强国，但我相信，由于全球对中东的关注，以及土耳其与欧洲、美国和亚洲的互动，到2050年，土耳其将拥有巨大的实力。然而，由于与库尔德人的冲突和埃尔多安对民主的镇压，这种情况受到了严重的威胁。根据政府采取的行动，土耳其可以在2050年成为一个全球大国。

6.Russia.In all honesty, Russia could be a superpower by 2050 or it could become a splintered state. There exist plenty of complications in relation to how long Putin will stay in power for, and if Russia can mend relations with the west. Russia’s GDP has fallen since 2014, due to both the price of oil and sanctions imposed against them. However judging by Russia’s interventions in Syria and Ukraine, Russia has made it clear to the west that it still believes itself to be a global power. Depending on the strength of the economy in the future that could change for the better or worse, but due to Russia’s vast amount of natural resources, including an unproven amount of oil and gas, I’d conclude that Russia’s economy will be strong enough to remain a global power by 2050. Given that Russia reconnects itself with the West, I believe it will be likely, but if not, the opposite is true.

6、俄罗斯。老实说，到2050年，俄罗斯可能成为一个超级大国，也可能成为一个四分五裂的国家。 关于普京将执政多久，以及俄罗斯能否修复与西方的关系，还存在很多复杂因素。 自2014年以来，俄罗斯的国内生产总值(GDP)一直在下降，原因是石油价格上涨和对俄罗斯的制裁。 不过，从俄罗斯对叙利亚和乌克兰的干预来看，俄罗斯已向西方明确表示，它仍相信自己是一个全球大国。 根据未来经济实力的变化，可能变得更好或更坏，但由于俄罗斯的大量自然资源，包括未经证实的石油和天然气，我得出结论，俄罗斯的经济将足够强大，到2050年仍然是一个全球大国。 鉴于俄罗斯重新与西方建立了联系，我相信这种可能性是存在的，但如果没有，情况就恰恰相反。

Emerging/Regional Powers
I’ll just bullet point here, but I’d predict these countries to make significant moves.
-Indonesia - Already a massive economy and containing the worlds fourth largest population, Indonesia will grow significantly. However it’s global sphere of influence will be overshadowed by China and India, making it more or less a regional power.
-Nigeria - Africa’s largest economy will be a regional powerhouse by 2050 and will take a leading role in Africa’s future. However I would consider that power to be only regional, and instability, such as Boko Haram, could tear that all down.
-Canada - America’s Northern Neighbor is perhaps the most global country in the world, boosting an extremely diverse population and multilateral trade deals with three continents. If America takes a protectionist swing, Canada may benefit from it. Regardless I see Canada growing in the future.

新兴国家 / 地区大国：我在这里只想强调一点，但我预计这些国家将会有重大的表现。
1、印度尼西亚。已经是一个庞大的经济体，拥有世界第四大人口，印度尼西亚将大幅增长。 然而，中国和印度将为其全球势力范围蒙上一层阴影，使其或多或少成为一个地区强国。
2、尼日利亚。非洲最大的经济体到2050年将成为区域强国，并将在非洲的未来发挥主导作用。 然而，我认为这种力量只是区域性的，而不稳定，如博科圣地，可以摧毁这一切。
3、加拿大。美国的北方邻国也许是世界上最全球化的国家，促进了人口的极端多样化和与三大洲的多边贸易协定。 如果美国采取贸易保护主义措施，加拿大可能会从中受益。 不管怎样，我看到了加拿大未来的发展。

Declining Powers
These are countries which I see taking significant steps backwards - such that they are no longer serious global powers.
-The UK - Two reasons why I see a decline here. First Brexit. The loss of the European Union will significantly hamper the British Economy and harm its influence. Second, I don’t believe that The UK will exist in its current state by 2050. I predict that Scotland will leave within 20 years, especially if Brexit goes through, and Northern Ireland would be forced to gain additional autonomy due to border complications. England (+Wales) would still be a significant economic power, but I don’t think it will hold the same standing as its European cousins, as in France and Germany. I think that the UK will still be a global power in 2050, but for the sake of organization I’m putting it here, because it has plenty to lose.
-Japan - To be fair, I don’t have any idea what will happen with Japan. Japan’s problems are quite unique, and perhaps a testing ground for the future. In essence its declining population, coupled with high debt, will force Japan to either make massive changes or lose a significant portion of its economic power. Regardless I believe China and India will both take far larger roles in Asia and completely overshadow it on a global scale.

衰落的力量：我看到这些国家正在快速地倒退——以至于它们不再是真正的全球大国。
1、英国。我认为英国衰落的两个原因。 首先，英国脱欧。 欧盟的解体将严重阻碍英国经济的发展，损害其影响力。 其次，我不认为到2050年英国会以现在的状态存在。 我预计苏格兰将在20年内脱离欧盟，特别是如果英国脱欧成功，北爱尔兰将因边境问题而被迫获得更多的自治权。 英格兰(+ 威尔士)仍将是一个重要的经济强国，但我认为它不会像法国和德国那样，保持与其欧洲兄弟国家相同的地位。 我认为，到2050年，英国仍将是一个全球大国，但为了保险起见，我把它放在这里，因为它会失去很多的东西。
2、日本。公平地说，我不知道日本会发生什么。 日本的问题是非常独特的，也许是未来的试验场。 从本质上讲，日本人口的减少，加上高额债务，将迫使日本要么进行大规模改革，要么失去相当一部分经济实力。 无论如何，我相信中国和印度都将在亚洲扮演更重要的角色，并在全球范围内完全超越亚洲。

Hasan Faraz , studied at Woodstock School
9. France.The size of France’s economy will be $2.75 trillion, and it will have a projected per capita income of $40,643. There will be tough times ahead for France though, as it struggles to cope with (continuing) sluggish growth and demographic challenges (decline in working population), and it will drop three places in the economic league table to ninth position, surpassed by countries such as Mexico, India and Brazil.
8. Mexico.Mexico is the second Latin American entrant to the pantheon of putative economic powerhouses. With a projected GDP of $2.81 trillion and a per capita income of $21,793. Prospects look extremely good for Mexico: its current president Enrique Nieto is spearheading a number of wide-ranging reforms from telecommunications to energy that will boost the country’s long-term productivity and prosperity.

Hasan Faraz ，就读于伍德斯托克学校
9、法国。法国的经济规模将达到2.75万亿美元，预计人均收入将达到40,643美元。 不过，随着法国努力应对(持续)缓慢增长和人口结构挑战(劳动人口下降) ，未来将面临艰难时期。法国在经济排行榜上的排名将下降3位，至第9位，被墨西哥、印度和巴西等国超过。
8、墨西哥。墨西哥是公认的经济强国中的第二个拉丁美洲国家。 预计国内生产总值为2.81万亿美元，人均收入为21793美元。墨西哥的前景看起来非常好：墨西哥现任总统恩里克•涅托正带头进行一系列广泛的改革，从电信到能源，这些改革将促进墨西哥的长期生产力和繁荣。

Brazil is a surprise entry in the top ten – given its past experiences of inflation levels of over 500 percent. With a GDP projected at $2.96 trillion and a per capita income of $13,547,Brazil will be the seventh-most powerful economy on the planet. And it will be a pretty sizeable economy too – Brazil’s population is expected to reach in excess of 200 million. It won’t be all sunshine and carnivals though: the country’s per capita income is expected to drop from 52nd place to 61st.
6. United Kingdom.The UK’s projected 2050 GDP is $3.58 trillion, with a per capita income of $49,412. The current gap between British economic wealth and that of Germany will narrow significantly by 2050 (from a $346 billion gap to a $138 billion gap), with the UK boosted by a projected year on year percentage growth in the working population. The UK is projected to fall in the economic league table by just one position, so it’s hanging in there.

7、巴西。鉴于巴西过去的通货膨胀率超过500% ，巴西出人意料地进入了前十名。 预计国内生产总值将达到2.96万亿美元，人均收入为13,547美元，巴西将成为全球第七大经济强国。 这也将是一个相当可观的经济体——巴西的人口预计将超过2亿。 不过，中国的人均收入预计将从第52位下降到第61位。
6、英国。英国2050年的国内生产总值预计为3.58万亿美元，人均收入为49,412美元。 到2050年，英国经济财富与德国经济财富之间的差距将大幅缩小(从3460亿美元的差距缩小到1380亿美元的差距) ，预计英国工作人口的年增长率将提高英国的经济财富。预计英国在经济排行榜上的排名只会下降一个位置，所以它还能坚持下去。

5. Germany.Germany will have a projected GDP of $3.71 trillion with a per capita income of $52.683,making it the largest European economy in 2050 (although it has dropped one place from 2015). Given that Germany is roughly the same size, in terms of population, as the UK that’s pretty impressive.
4. Japan.The size of Japan’s economy by GDP will be $6.43 trillion; its income per capita is projected at $63,244. Japan faces demographic challenges of an ageing population and a dramatic decline in working age population (of nearly 40 percent).
The shrinking working population is also expected to support an increasing ageing population. Perhaps incentives will be offered to the Japanese people to have more children: the fertility rate here is the lowest on this list of world economies.

5、德国。预计德国 GDP 将达到3.71万亿美元，人均收入为52.683美元，到2050年将成为欧洲最大的经济体(尽管与2015年相比下降了一个位置)。 考虑到德国的人口规模和英国大致相同，这就相当令人印象深刻了。
4、日本。按国内生产总值计算，日本经济规模将达到6.43万亿美元; 人均收入预计为63,244美元。 日本面临着人口老龄化和劳动年龄人口急剧下降(将近40%)的人口挑战。
劳动人口的减少预计也将使日益老龄化的人口上升。 也许政府会鼓励日本人生育更多的孩子: 日本的生育率是世界经济体中最低的。

3. India.India will become the third-largest economy in the world, with a GDP of $8.17 trillion and an income per capita of $5,060. India’s working population is set to explode, fuelling its growth.Its income growth rate is set to overtake China’s after 2030 partly as a result of China’s one-child policy, and its economy is projected to grow at an average 5.1% annually between 2040 and 2050. In addition to becoming one of the world’s super-economies, India is also poised to become the most populous country on earth by 2050, overtaking China with a projected 1.6 billion people.
2. United StatesThe US will be the second richest economy in the world in 2050, with a GDP of $22.27 trillion and a per capita income of $55,134. The projected growth per capita income for the US is lower than other developed economies because its already rich infrastructure “constrains growth”. For so long the richest country on the planet, the US will have to contend with being ’second best

3、印度。印度将成为世界第三大经济体，GDP 为8.17万亿美元，人均收入为5060美元。 印度的劳动人口将会爆炸式增长，从而推动其经济增长。 印度的收入增长率将在2030年后超过中国，部分原因是中国的一胎政策，而且印度的经济预计在2040年到2050年间将以平均每年5.1% 的速度增长。除了成为世界超级经济体之一，印度还有望在2050年成为地球上人口最多的国家，预计将超过中国，拥有16亿人口。
2、美国。到2050年，美国将以22.27万亿美元的 GDP 和55,134美元的人均收入，成为世界上第二富有的经济体。 美国预计的人均收入增长率低于其它发达经济体，因为美国已经很丰富的基础设施“限制了增长”。 长久以来，美国一直是世界上最富有的国家，但现在，它将不得不与“第二富有国家”相抗衡

1. China.In 2050, China is expected to be the world’s richest, and probably the most powerful, economy, with a GDP of $24.62 trillion and a per capita income of $17,759. China’s income per capita will still only be roughly a third of that in the US, so there is room for considerably more growth. However, it will no longer be the most populous country in the world – that can be a plus or minus depending on your own point of view.many small currently rich European nations (such as Switzerland, The Netherlands and Sweden) will be the biggest losers and, perhaps unsurprisingly, China will be the world’s largest economy.

1、中国。2050年，中国有望成为世界上最富有，也许是最强大的经济体，GDP 达到24.62万亿美元，人均收入达到17,759美元。中国的人均收入仍将只有美国的三分之一左右，因此还有相当大的增长空间。 然而，它将不再是世界上人口最多的国家——可以是正面或负面，这取决于你自己的观点。拥有大量人口的国家将在经济上表现良好; 许多目前富裕的欧洲小国(如瑞士、荷兰和瑞典)将成为最大的输家，或许不出所料，中国将成为全球最大的经济体。

Gregory Moulinet , Biocentric designer based in Shanghai
In 2050 the main issue will not be economical or military power but finite resources access with control over water and waterways.
By 2048 the oceanic eco-system is bound to collapse, by overfishing, temperature rising and acidification.
Right now, each superpowers are edging their bet in different ways.
USA has and will continue to have absolute military dominance. Which means that if a particular vital resource is lacking for energy, for food or for water, they will take it at gunpoint to whom ever has it. But it’s a very risky bet as the US does not invest in its infrastructures or its education. Their brand still attract talents, but it may not last as China is now giving better opportunities. The dominance of the English language is also a major factor. 2050 may actually mark a pivot point when most people start to learn Chinese as a second language instead of English. As a reaction to that I can imagine a coalition of anglophone countries with maybe a common currency.

Gregory Moulinet ，生物中心设计师，在上海
到2050年，主要的问题将不是经济或军事力量，而是有限的资源使用权和水路控制权。
到2048年，由于过度捕捞、气温上升和海水酸化，海洋生态系统必将崩溃。
现在，每个超级大国都在以不同的方式押注。
美国已经并将继续拥有绝对的军事优势。 这意味着，如果一个特定的重要资源缺乏，能源，食物或水，他们会拿枪指着对方，然后拿走它。但这是一个非常冒险的赌注，因为美国并没有对自己的基础设施或教育进行投资。他们的影响力仍然吸引着人才进来，但可能不会持久，因为中国现在提供了更好的机会。 英语的主导地位也是一个主要因素。实际上，2050年可能标志着一个转折点，大多数人开始学习汉语作为第二语言，而不是英语。作为对此举的回应，我可以想象会有一个由英语国家组成的联盟，或许还有一种共同的货币。

China may never reach the military power level of the USA, but it will dominate everyone economically on so many level. They also invest at a level never seen in human history in their infrastructure and are now fully transitioning in renewables and sustainable energy and other production models. By 2050, China will be much better prepared to handle famine, fresh water supply, climate change, raising seas on coastline cities and of course energy supply, than any other country I can think of. China has rich internal resources to fall back on when things goes sour globally. No other country has that.
The most unprepared country is Japan and I can’t see any positive scenario. They will be rattled economically mostly due by their unbalanced old/young population. Their food source will only be supplied by their fridges. The environmental impact will be felt deeply on all sides of the island. Fukushima will have worsen. A few other major earthquakes would have happen before 2050 complicating a disastrous situation. They will be more and more isolated diplomatically while the US protection would dwindle to lip service in front of a potential conflict with China.

中国可能永远达不到美国的军事实力水平，但它将在许多方面主导每个人的经济。它们在基础设施方面的投资水平也达到了人类历史上前所未有的水平，目前正在可再生能源、可持续能源和其他生产模式方面全面过渡。到2050年，中国在应对饥荒、淡水供应、气候变化、沿海城市海平面上升，当然还有能源供应方面，将比我能想到的任何其他国家做好更充分的准备。当全球形势恶化时，中国有丰富的内部资源可以依靠。没有其他国家有这种能力。
最没有准备的国家是日本，我看不到任何积极的方面。他们的经济状况将受到影响，主要原因是他们的老年人 / 年轻人口不平衡。 他们的食物来源只能靠冰箱提供。环境影响将深入到岛屿的各个角落。福岛的情况将进一步恶化。 在2050年之前还会发生一些其他的大地震，使灾难性的情况更加复杂化。 他们将在外交上越来越孤立，而在与中国发生潜在冲突之前，美国的保护将缩减为口惠而实不至。

Europe may come back to “one country for itself” system, signing the end of the euro. Internal problem for each countries would have become so numerous, it may spur a neo-colonialism on the African continent. But they will find China is already there. The Nordic countries may either insulate themselves from the rest of Europe or take the leadership from French/German duo.
The big question mark is South America, India and Russia. All have major potentials, all have major issues to deal with and all haven’t started to prepare themselves to confront major environmental looming disasters. My bet is on South America because natural resources are the richest there and at a time of environmental catastrophes, most countries sharing the Amazon and with access to coastline will need to work together to maintain it as it is vital for the rest of the planet. So other countries would pay or maintain by force key habitats from depletion. How a country like Brazil would take advantage of this situation is really everyones’ guess.

欧洲可能重新回到“各个国家为自己”的体系，签署欧元的终结。 每个国家的内部问题都会变得非常多，可能会在非洲大陆催生新殖民主义。但他们会发现，中国已经在那里了。欧洲北欧五国要么将自己与欧洲其他国家隔离开来，要么从法德两国手中夺取领导权。
最大的问号是南美、印度和俄罗斯。 它们都有巨大的潜力，都有重大的问题需要处理，都还没有开始准备面对迫在眉睫的重大环境灾难。 我把赌注押在南美洲，因为那里的自然资源最为丰富，而且在环境灾难频发的时候，大多数分享亚马逊河流域和可以接近海岸线的国家将需要共同努力来保护它，因为它对地球其他地区至关重要。 因此，其他国家将付出代价，或用武力保护关键的栖息地免于枯竭。 像巴西这样的国家会如何利用这种情况，那真的是仁者见仁智者见智了。

Vishwajeet Kamble , Search Engine Optimization (2019-present)
* China (2016 ranking: 1) China is expected to hold on to the number one spot.
* India (2016 ranking: 3) .
* 3 United States (2016 ranking: 2) .
* Indonesia (2016 ranking: 8) .
* Brazil (2016 ranking: 7) .
* Russia (2016 ranking: 6) .
* Mexico (2016 ranking: 11) .
* Japan (2016 ranking:4)
* .Economic growthTo be honest, Chinese economy is based on foreign investment, while India’s growth is increasingly based on a more local economic sector. So if you look for long run say after 50 years, more efficient economy will always overtake and surpass a large cumbersome inefficient economy. Currently every major multinational company has begun to invest heavily in India and has started to rely on Indian engineers for their next generation products. Companies like GM, Boeing, Motorola, Cisco, HP and many others have begun to make their R&D facilities and Asian headquarters in India.And more importantly, India's GDP growth in last half decade has been over 7+% constantly while China is facing some troubles due to heavy foreign investment failure, so if India maintain this steady growth, it can definitely become second largest economy by 2050.2) Diplomacy and smooth international relationsIndia’s diplomatic standing is really good. India has not been involved in international conflicts and has even helped other countries in their critical condition of any kind. Our nation also has a good international reach, it is the third largest contributor to UN Peacekeeping Forces Hotel Nymphenburg in München upcoming dacade, as the country’s economy and international trade grows strong, maybe India will get what it has been asking for a long time - a permanent seat in the UN Security Council. It would be India's biggest success in terms of diplomatic point of view.On the other hand, unlike 1970s India, The country's foreign policy has been changed dramatically, India has maintained good relationships with its allies and even made some new allies. India has been statagic partner with USA and also keeps relations with Russia, China, Japan , Australia, Europe and other Middle east countries.Relations with African countries and neighborhood countries as well as with south East Asian countries is improving..to me , that is the major point which could establish India as a superpower.3) Military powerWith defence budget of $54 billions and active military personnel of 1,362,500, India ranks number 4 on the list of top 10 most powerful militaries in the world. Add to it a total of 2,102 aircrafts and a naval strength of 295 and you have a country ready to tackle any military emergency !As I mentioned in diplomacy point, India is gaining new technology and ideas from all over the world such as, 5th generation fighter plane from Russia while Defence Drone technology from USA and other technology from Israel ! So if India increases the defence budget in next 4 decades, specially in Air force and cyber and New technology, India definitely can handle any critical situation.4) PopulationIf handled correctly, this could be a huge advantage for India ,as the country has a ton of fresh minds entering the various industry, business, and education sectors. So India is currently land of young population. Having the world’s second largest population, approximately 50% of it is below the age group of 24. This gives India a huge workforce base which can last for a good two to three In the years to come, while some of the strong nations of the world will witness a decrease in populations and thus in turn, a decline in workforce, India will face no such problem. And just a quick trivia India has the world’s largest English speaking population! Yes! Not even UK has that many English speaking people!5) Stabled democracyJust imagine, if you are a Chinese Civilian, having so much restrictions on social life, no freedom of speech, no choice in government, and one party politics, you can't even take single breath in that land !So on the other hand, that's India's biggest advantage, freedom of speech, freedom of expression, beautiful constitution made for every single citizen of India and by citizen. Being the world’s largest democratic republic has its own challenges. Politics plays an important role in the development of any nation and it holds truer for becoming a super power isn't possible without support of every single citizen of country and that is only possible by a good democracy, healthy democracy creates healthy government and healthy government leads country from developing status to DEVELOPED !6) Science and technologyPrime minister Modi once mentioned in his speed that India's mars mission is far more cheaper than a Hollywood film ! That's the best example to show Extreme talent of our country in science and technology !India is rocking as far as science and technology is concerned. It is already becoming the world’s leading producers of computer software. It is also supporting and investing in research and development centres and is slowly undergoing a revolution in the field of science and technology.Did you know that India was the third nation to establish a National Space Agency called Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), The first two nations to do that were Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) and the United States of America. India is also the fourth country to reach the Moon’s surface.7) Artificial intelligencePresident of Russia, Vladimir Putin last month gave a statement that country which will emerge as an artificial intelligence industry king will emerge as a Global leader..India is on that same path, currently Artificial intelligence is being developed in India with rapid growth and Better than even some western countries.

Vishwajeet Kamble ，搜索引擎优化(2019年至今)
1、中国(2016年排名: 1)，中国有望保持第一的位置
2、印度(2016年排名: 3)
3、美国(2016年排名: 2)
4、印尼(2016年排名: 8)
5、巴西(2016年排名: 7)
6、俄罗斯(2016年排名: 6)
7、墨西哥(2016年排名: 11)
8、日本(2016年排名: 4)
说实话，中国的经济是建立在外国投资的基础上的，而印度的经济增长越来越多地建立在当地经济部门的基础上。所以如果你从长远来看，比如说50年以后，更有效率的经济总会超过一个大而笨重的低效率经济。 目前，每一家大型跨国公司都开始在印度大举投资，并开始依赖印度工程师生产下一代产品。 通用、波音、摩托罗拉、思科、惠普等公司已经开始在印度建立研发设施和亚洲总部。 更重要的是，印度过去五年的 GDP 增长率一直保持在7% 以上，而中国由于外国投资严重失败而面临一些麻烦，因此如果印度保持这种稳定的增长，它肯定能在2050年成为第二大经济体。
印度没有卷入国际冲突，甚至帮助其他处于任何危急状况的国家。 我们的国家也有很好的国际影响力。随着印度经济和国际贸易的强劲增长，也许印度将得到它长期以来一直要求的东西——联合国安理会常任理事国席位。 另一方面，与上世纪70年代的印度不同，印度的外交政策发生了巨大变化，印度与其盟友保持着良好的关系，甚至还结交了一些新的盟友。 印度一直是美国的远洋合作伙伴，并与俄罗斯、中国、日本、澳大利亚、欧洲等中东国家保持着良好的关系。 与非洲国家和邻国以及与东南亚国家的关系正在改善。
印度拥有540亿美元的国防预算和136.25万现役军人，印度在世界十大军事强国中排名第四。 再加上总共2102架飞机和295名海军，你就有了一个准备应对任何军事紧急情况的国家！ 正如我在外交观点中提到的，印度正从世界各地获得新的技术和想法，比如，俄罗斯的第五代战斗机，美国的国防无人机技术和以色列的其他技术！ 因此，如果印度在未来40年增加国防预算，特别是在空军、网络和新技术方面，印度肯定能够应对任何危急情况。
人口如果处理得当，这对印度来说将是一个巨大的优势，因为该国有大量新人进入各种工业、商业和教育部门。 所以印度现在是年轻人的乐土。 作为世界第二大人口国，大约50% 的人口低于24岁。 这为印度提供了一个巨大的劳动力基础，这个基础可以维持两到三年。在未来几年，尽管世界上一些强大的国家的人口将会减少，从而劳动力也会减少，但印度不会面临这样的问题。 简单地说，印度是世界上讲英语人口最多的国家！ 太好了！ 甚至英国也没有那么多说英语的人！
稳定的民主。试想一下，如果你是一个中国公民，社会生活受到如此多的限制，你甚至不能在那片土地上喘一口气！ 另一方面，这是印度最大的优势，它为每个印度公民制定的良好宪法。虽然作为世界上最大的民主共和国有其自身的挑战。政治在任何国家的发展中都扮演着重要的角色，它认为成为超级大国离不开每一个国家公民的支持，只有良好的民主、健康的民主创造健康的政府，才能带领国家从发展中国家走向发达国家！
科学与技术。总理莫迪曾经提到，印度的火星任务比好莱坞电影便宜得多！这是最好的例子，显示我们国家在科学和技术的极限人才！就科学技术而言，印度还摇摆不定。但它已经成为全球领先的计算机软件生产商。它还支持和投资于研究和发展中心，并正在科学和技术领域缓慢地进行一场革命。 你知道吗，印度是第三个成立国家航天局的国家，叫做印度太空研究组织(ISRO) ，最早成立这个组织的两个国家是苏联和美国。
人工智能。俄罗斯总统普京上个月发表声明称，成为人工智能产业之王的国家将会成为全球领导者。而印度也在这条道路上，目前印度正在开发人工智能，发展迅速，甚至比一些西方国家还要好。

.8) TourismTourism will also play an important role in India becoming a superpower by 2050. According to the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), India has the world’s 7th largest tourism economy in terms of GDP. According to the council’s well researched data, the travel and tourism sector added around Indian Rupees 14.1 trillion to the country’s GDP in the year 2016. That is around 9.6% of India’s GDP thus putting it on the 7th http://rank.In addition to this, the tourism sector also created around 40.3 million jobs in the year 2016; this makes the sector as well as the country rank 2nd in the world in terms of total employment generated. Also, the sector was the fastest growing amongst the G20 countries in 2016. It grew by 8.5% in 2016 and is predicted to grow further by 6.7% in 2017.9) History and cultureIndia is the land of one of two ancient civilizations, with history of over 5000years .Having had geniuses that have contributed globally, factors and inventions such as the numbering system, zero, calculus and even astronomy, we are sure the current and future generations will keep adding to this repository of contributions.India is a nation of amazing cultural, religious, and political diversity. This gives India the ability to address their problems out in the open and renew and adapt to changing circumstances
.11) IndustryChina is a leading producer of marketable good and a major mass producer of many important industries,Thus to maintain their lead, China is working on to maintain their influence over production sector. Meanwhile, India is a rising power in the software, design, services and precision industry. There is no other IT sector in the world that can compare to or even hold its own against India. So what is the key difference maker between India and China? Well China is what we call a light industry producer while India is the heavy Industry producer. While China makes the toys and the T-shirts that we see as common goods on the market, India is making industrial grade steel used in making skyscrapers, tanks and ships while its automotive industry is experiencing unprecedented growth.A good example of this would be the Chinese attempt to kick start their automotive industry which continues to be a failure ! Meanwhile Indian companies such as TATA is making headlines by making more cheaper and efficient cars and making deals with western companies like GM and many others which is an indicator of India’s heavy growth industry seeking to expand its influence worldwide.12) Education SystemBoth India and China produce half million graduates compared to the 60 thousands in the US. Out of the half million, a better part of them are Indian graduates.So India has the 2nd largest English speaking population out of the English nations India’s education system has proven to be far more advanced the Chinese one ! Indian Institutes of Technology (IIT) is a globally recognised institution with quality of education and bringing out the engineers and IT professionals of tomorrow.Currently, India is the 2nd largest producer of Engineers, scientist and doctors. Other educational intuitions like the Indian Institute of Science (IIsc) and the Business school have all set standards as the world benchmark. Meanwhile in China, low English speaking populations with high illiteracy rates have been a disadvantage for many companies and organisations.So as I mentioned earlier, if this huge flow of young generation enters into workforce with high quality of education, roadmap of India's 2050 target would be realistic.13) Environmental leadershipLast year we witnessed Trump administration's withdrawal from " Paris Agreement "and that wrong move of the US president suddenly gave India a huge opportunity of being a leader in environmental issues as India was one of the key leaders of that summit, this is just one example..and India also aimed to generate 200GW clean energy by 2022, and currently it's generating as expectationsAs with any developing country, India and China both are heavy producers of pollution which continues to contribute to the global warning. But here we should look differently. Even today, many Chinese companies do not install filters onto their smoke stacks or care for where they dump their industrial garbage while in India situation is positively changing !So when a country is strong in all of these above 13 factors- military, international relations, technology, economy and culture, that’s when it is deemed a superpower and India is on the right track !

旅游业。也将在印度到2050年成为超级大国方面发挥重要作用。根据世界旅游理事会(WTTC)的数据，就国内生产总值而言，印度是世界第七大旅游经济体。根据该委员会的详细研究数据，2016年，印度旅游业为该国国内生产总值增加了约14.1万亿卢比。 这相当于印度国内生产总值的9.6% 左右。除此之外，旅游业在2016年还创造了约4030万个就业机会，这使得旅游业和印度在创造就业总量方面排名世界第二。此外，在2016年 G20国家中，印度是该行业增长速度最快的国家。 它在2016年增长了8.5% ，预计在2017年还会进一步增长6.7% 。
历史和文化。印度是两个古老文明之一，拥有超过5000年的历史。我们确信，现在和未来的人们将继续为这个文明宝库添砖加瓦。印度是一个文化、宗教和政治多样性令人惊叹的国家。 这使得印度有能力公开地解决他们的问题，更新和适应不断变化的环境。
随着高速列车和其他雄心勃勃的项目的开始，印度经济将迅速增长，到2050年印度将成为超级大国。与此同时，印度在软件、设计、服务和精密工业方面正在崛起。 世界上没有任何其它 IT 部门能够与印度相比，甚至能够与印度相抗衡。 那么，印度和中国之间的关键区别是什么呢？ 中国是我们所说的轻工业生产国，而印度是重工业生产国。 中国制造玩具和 t 恤衫，我们把它们看作是市场上的普通商品，而印度正在制造用于建造摩天大楼、坦克和轮船的工业级钢材，而印度的汽车工业正在经历前所未有的增长。与此同时，像塔塔这样的印度公司制造更廉价、更高效的汽车，并与西方公司如通用汽车和其他许多公司达成交易，这些都是印度重增长工业寻求扩大其全球影响力的一个特征。
在英语国家中，印度的英语人口排名第二。事实证明，印度的教育体系比中国先进得多！ 印度理工学院是一所全球认可的高质量的教育机构，培养出了未来的工程师和 IT 专业人才。 目前，印度是第二大工程师、科学家和医生的生产国。 印度理工学院和商学院等其它教育机构都设立了世界基准。 与此同时，在中国，低英语人口和高文盲率已经成为许多公司的一个不利条件，正如我前面提到的，如果这一大批年轻以高质量的教育进入劳动力市场，印度2050年目标的路线图将是现实的。
因此，当一个国家在以上13个方面都很强大——军事、国际关系、技术、经济和文化——那就是它被视为超级大国的时候，印度已经在正确的路上了！

Filip Stevanovic , studied at Gymnasium Laza Kostic
In next 32 years? Well I don’t think in 32 years USA or Russian Federation will end up as being surpassed by any other country.
But for one country to be true super power it needs to be superior in 5 aspects: water, Earth, culture, knowledge and air. Now if you think that army power is only aspect of superpower it is not. It is only one of the aspects.
Army will only get you so far... During peace Superpower needs to dominate as well.
China is good example of country that is even as we speak slowly becoming a superpower. Japan is also. Germany is getting there although slowly.
USA and Russia are still two big dominators in the world. Big Eagle and Big Bear.
Only country that truly is superior on all 5 aspects I talk about in this post is USA.

Filip Stevanovic，就读于拉扎 · 科斯蒂克
未来32年？ 我不认为32年后美国或者俄罗斯会被其他国家超越。
但是一个国家要成为真正的超级大国，它需要在5个方面具有优势: 海洋、陆地、文化、知识和天空。 如果你认为军事力量山谷超级大国的因素，那就错了。 这只是其中一个方面。军事力量不能让你走更远...在和平时期，超级大国也需要统治的能力。中国就是一个很好的例子，正如我们所说，中国正在慢慢成为一个超级大国。 日本也是。 德国正在逐步实现这一目标，尽管进展缓慢。
美国和俄罗斯仍然是世界上的两大霸主，大鹰和大熊。唯一在所有5个方面都真正优越的国家是美国。

And best example of long lasted Empire is Roman Empire. In its time it dominated with culture and knowledge(although most of the things they copied from Ancient Greeks), on water and land they were dominating as well. Only aspect they didn’t had was air and it was because of there technology was not efficient to make airplanes.. obviously.
SHORT ANSWER: Maybe China, Japan, Germany, Great Britain and maybe India.
Hope I answered your question :)

罗马帝国是长久帝国的最好例子。 在那个时代，它以文化和知识为主(尽管大多数东西都是从古希腊人那里抄袭过来的) ，在海洋和陆地上，他们也占据着主导地位。他们唯一没有占据的就是天空，毕竟那时还没有相应技术...
简短的回答: 可能是中国，日本，德国，英国，也可能是印度。
希望我回答了你的问题 :)

Nusil Vervich
The most likely country to be the strongest by 2050 is China or India in terms of economic power due to sheer population and rapid economic growth.That's assuming nothing massively world changing or apocalyptic occurs.

Nusil Vervich
到2050年，最有可能成为经济实力最强国家的国家是中国或印度，原因是中国人口众多，经济增长迅速。 这是假设世界不会发生大规模改变或世界末日的发生。

Aditya Chhabra , Foreign Policy Wonk
These are my geopolitical predictions for 2050:
* The U.S. will still be a Superpower and the world’s hegemonic power.
* China will continue to be a Great power and possibly ascend to Superpower status, but it won't be able to replace the U.S. as a world hegemonic power.
* India will rise from regional power status to Great power status.
* Japan may become a muscle flexing Great power.
* South Korea will continue to be a relatively powerful middle power.
* Russia will still be a Great power, but will start receding towards regional power status.
* The U.K. and France will be in the process of decline from being Great powers to regional powers.
* Germany will be an economic, technological, and soft power machine, but will have no major military strength.
* Poland will become a very strong regional power.

Aditya Chhabra 、外交政策专家
以下是我对2050年的地缘政治预测:
* 美国仍将是一个超级大国和世界霸权国家。
* 中国将继续成为一个大国，并有可能升级为超级大国，但它不能取代美国成为世界霸权国家。
* 印度将从地区强国地位上升到大国地位。
* 日本可能成为一个展示肌肉的大国。
* 韩国将继续成为一个相对强大的中等国家。
* 俄罗斯仍将是一个大国，但将开始向地区强国地位靠拢。
* 英国和法国将处于从大国到地区强国的衰落过程中。
* 德国将是一台经济、技术和软实力强大的机器，但不会拥有强大的军事实力。
* 波兰将成为一个非常强大的地区强国。

* Turkey will become a very strong regional power. Turkey will become the nearby regional hegemonic power over certain important areas of the Mediterranean, North Africa, the near East, and the Middle East. Turkey will be the bulwark in the Caucasus against the Russians.
* Brazil and Argentina will balance each other out in South America and will both continue as the top South American regional powers.

* 土耳其将成为一个非常强大的区域力量。 在地中海、北非、近东和中东的某些重要地区，土耳其将成为附近地区的霸主。 土耳其将成为高加索地区对抗俄罗斯的堡垒。
* 巴西和阿根廷将在南美洲相互制衡，并将继续作为南美洲最大的地区力量。

Manish Asthana
lets see, the US has the largest economy and largest military. Its closest rival in both terms is China, which is dependent on the US economy. So if the US economy is strong (although it grows very very slowly) then I would say US will continue to have the most sway because of a combination of both Economy and military.What if scenario: China gets access to India's growing market. it will have an alternate to the US. however this will also mean that India's economy is growing faster than China's. India's armed forces are no walk over and a war between next door neighbors with significant armed forces makes no sense. so I would say china has better odds in the next 10-30 years

Manish Asthana
让我们来看看，美国有最大的经济和最大的军事力量。 在这两方面最接近的竞争对手是依赖美国经济的中国。 因此，如果美国经济强劲(尽管增长非常缓慢) ，那么我认为，由于经济和军事的结合，美国将继续拥有最大的影响力。如果情况是: 中国进入印度不断增长的市场。 它将有一个替代美国的方案。 然而，这也意味着印度的经济增长速度会快于中国。邻国之间的战争与武装力量是没有意义的。 所以我认为中国在未来10-30年的胜算会更大。

Neel Kumar , Been to quite a few countries. Liked most of them.
2050 is 36 years away. More than a whole generation. I think projecting that far out is fantasy land. Just think, what would you have projected for today in 1978?But, let the punditry begin!- US (safe bet. Very large economy + very large military + growing population)- China (fairly safe bet. Very large economy + desire to project militarily. Population plateauing)- EU (iffy. If tighter integration does not take place, centrifugal forces could render it moot. 36 years from now, no one would have any fears of WW2)- India (iffy. growing population could cause weird problems)- Russia (population is not growing. If oil becomes obsolete, the Russians would have a tough time coming out of the slump. Kleptocracy is damaging ordinary Russians)Bold predictions:- Norway - Rich country, safe from unstable neighbors, could have deep influence.- Nigeria - Economy is growing fast. If it can navigate between militants and dictatorship, it could become the African hub.- Poland - If Russian influence shrinks, Poland is in ideal place to take advantage of its connections in Eastern Europe to grow and grow fast.

Neel Kumar 我去过不少国家，大部分都很喜欢。
离2050年还有36年呢。超过整整一代人。 我认为那么远的时间跨度是一种幻想。 试想一下，如果今天是1978年，你怎么想？ 无论如何，现在开始专家解说！
美国(安全的赌注)，非常大的经济 + 非常大的军事力量 + 不断增长的人口。
中国(也是相当安全的赌注）， 非常大的经济体 + 想要投射军事力量，人口平稳期
欧盟(不确定)，如果不能实现更紧密的整合，分裂可能会使它失去意义。 36年后，没有人会害怕二战。
印度(不确定)，人口增长可能导致奇怪的问题。
俄罗斯人口没有增长，如果石油变得没必要了，俄罗斯人将很难走出衰退。
大胆的猜测：挪威，富裕的国家，远离不稳定的邻国，可能会产生深远的影响。尼日利亚，经济增长迅速。如果它能在武装分子和独裁者之间游走，它将成为非洲的枢纽。波兰，如果俄罗斯的影响力下降，利用其与东欧的联系，波兰是迅速发展壮大的理想之地。

Asimendra DeChaudhari , former Senior Telecom Assistant at Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (1978-2014)
Thanks for rewuest.At present US is the Supreme Super Power and no one else can replace it right now although their power is declining and there are many competitors like China, USSR, France and India to replace it. No one likes to give up its status as the Super Power and so is US. It will try to maintain its Supreme Super Power status. In the mean time there may be more than one Super Powerd rather than one Supreme Super Power in the world. This race for power may lead to another World War which may decide who will be the next Super Power. A great natural calamity may also bring about this change.
In my opinion, the world is not a blind play of forces represented by human beings but a Devine Play towards perfection.

Asimendra DeChaudhari 1978-2014年，曾任电信公司高级电信助理
谢邀。目前，美国是最强超级大国，没有人能够取代它，虽然他们的实力正在下降，有许多竞争对手，如中国，苏联，法国和印度想取而代之。但没有人愿意放弃超级大国的地位，美国也是如此。 它将努力保持其超级大国的地位。与此同时，世界上可能会有不止一个超级大国，但不是最强超级大国。 这场权力争夺战可能导致另一场世界大战，这场战争可能决定谁将成为下一个最强超级大国。 一场巨大的自然灾害也有可能导致局势的变化。
在我看来，世界不是一个以人类为代表的盲目力量游戏，而是一个追求完美的阴谋游戏。