[2024-03-24]Quora问答：在莫斯科音乐厅恐怖袭击之后，普京和他的政权会怎么样?

Thomas Brown
Nobody knows.
But there will be a not insignificant minority of Russians who realize that Putin has made Russia so weak that 3rd-rate barbarians like ISIS pose a threat in Moscow. ISIS has history in Russia, has been attacking for years but this is big and demonstrates an appalling lack of security in Russia. Many Russians will line up for service after this, just as many Muscovites lined the streets the morning after for a chance to donate blood for the survivors.
Many Russians will listen to Putin’s garbage about Ukraine and the West being responsible for this; they will deny the evidence of their eyes and ears and bloodied neighbors, the Dear Leader has spoken. No small number of them will join the services as well, to kill Ukrainians—not ISIS. For some reason, they will be supported in their delusions by a disturbingly large minority of Western morons who just refuse to accept ISIS’ declaration of responsibility for the attack, and their promise to carry out more.

【回答】
没人知道。
但也有不少一部分俄罗斯人意识到，普京让俄罗斯变得如此虚弱，以至于像 ISIS 这样的三流野蛮人对莫斯科构成了威胁。ISIS 在俄罗斯有历史，多年来一直在发动袭击，但这次是大事件，表明俄罗斯严重缺乏安全保障。许多俄罗斯人会在这次事件后排队服役，就像许多莫斯科人在事件发生后的第二天早上排队等待为幸存者献血一样。
许多俄罗斯人会听普京关于乌克兰和西方应对此负责的胡言乱语；他们会否认亲眼所见、亲耳所闻和邻居鲜血淋漓的证据，因为亲爱的领袖说过了。他们中的不少人也会加入军队，杀害乌克兰人而不是 ISIS。出于某种原因，他们的妄想会得到少数西方蠢货的支持，这些蠢货拒绝接受 ISIS 宣布对此次袭击负责，并承诺将实施更多袭击。

Similar to Hamas, so weird. Fucking mass-murdering lunatics film themselves performing heinous atrocities, post it online and explicitly take credit, promise to conduct more such attacks, and these useful idiots will still deny it. They don’t care about the victims, they don’t care about the murderers, they just want to feel self-righteous and blame America, the West, capitalism, whatever. Facts be damned.
So what will happen to Putin? He’s already scared, he will be more so now. Muscovites in particular, but Russians in general, will share a bit of that fear. Mistakes will be more likely politically, and socially Russia will grow even more tense and unpredictable. Putin is rapidly running out of options, he’s feeling the squeeze of a stalemated war in the west and growing internal unrest on multiple fronts, plus a shit economy that stalled out years ago and the sanctions/war have only made worse. But there is still no challenger, no successor, no mass movement to replace him, and no real seccessionist threats from the provinces yet. It’s more than likely that Putin will be fine for a while longer yet.

就像哈马斯，太奇怪了。该死的大屠杀疯子把自己犯下的滔天暴行拍下来，发到网上，明目张胆地邀功，承诺会发动更多这样的袭击，而这些有用的白痴仍然会否认。他们不关心受害者，不关心凶手，只会自以为是地指责美国、西方、资本主义什么的。无视事实。
普京会怎么样？他已经很害怕了，现在会更害怕。尤其是莫斯科人，但整个俄罗斯人都会分担着一些恐惧。政治上更有可能犯错误，社会上俄罗斯将变得更加紧张和不可预测。普京的选择空间越来越少，他感受到了西方陷入僵局的战争和多条战线上日益增长的内部动荡的压力，再加上多年来停滞不前的糟糕经济，而制裁和战争只会使情况变得更糟。但目前仍没有挑战者、没有继任者、没有大规模运动来取代他，也没有真正的省份分裂威胁。普京很可能还会安然度过一段时间。

Shun Bot
Almost 24 hours have passed, and still the Russian authorities have yet to formally name a culprit.
The shooters who have been captured (about 3 of them so far I believe) all hail from Central Asian, not the Middle East and not Ukraine. They do not appear to have any connection to ISIS as that organization has very little presence in Central Asian countries like Tajikistan.
Russian authorities are making the claim that the shooters fled towards the Ukraine border, but what that means exactly is hard to say, and the Russians have stopped short of accusing Ukraine outright.
—
So those are the facts so far. Now let’s do some speculation.
I think it is fair to say at this point that this was not some simple jihadi attack. Jihadis fight to the death whenever they do one of these mass shootings. These men all fled the scene, or at least tried to. They also weren’t found with any of the usual paraphernalia of jihadis like copies of the Quran. The one ISIS flag discovered so far was poorly drawn on piece of cardboard.

【回答】
将近 24 个小时过去了，俄罗斯当局仍未正式宣布凶手姓名。
已抓获的枪手（我认为目前约有 3 人）均来自中亚，而非中东和乌克兰。他们似乎与 ISIS 没有任何联系，因为该组织在塔吉克斯坦等中亚国家几乎没有存在。
俄罗斯当局声称枪手逃往乌克兰边境，但这究竟意味着什么还很难说，俄罗斯方面也没有直接指责乌克兰。
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以上就是目前的事实。现在我们来做一些推测。
我认为现在可以说，这不是一次简单的圣战袭击。每当圣战分子发动大规模枪击时，他们都会战斗到死。这些人都逃离了现场，或者至少试图逃离。他们身上也没有发现任何圣战分子常用的随身物品，如《古兰经》。目前发现的一面ISIS旗帜是在硬纸板上简陋地画出来的。

What is clear is that the US and UK want Russia to believe this is an ISIS attack. They keep insisting on it non-stop and this is how the attack is being reported in every single Western media outlet. The fix is in.
If I had to guess, I’d say that this was a CIA operation where Central Asian mercenaries were disguised as jihadis to commit this massacre, then a supposedly ISIS generic internet source would take responsibility. The CIA’s aim here seems to be to divert Russian attention away from Ukraine and back towards Central Asia.
This strategy will backfire catastrophically.
Russian authorities already seem to be building this exact case that I have descrlbed, and this is likely how they were report it to the domestic Russian audience. Not every Russian will buy it, of course, but I think enough of them will that this will become a rally point for new Russian volunteers for the war in Ukraine, and serve as further justification for intensification of the war effort.

显而易见的是，美国和英国希望俄罗斯相信这是一次 ISIS 袭击。他们不停地坚持这一点，所有西方媒体都是这样报道这次袭击的。事件被操纵了。
如果让我猜的话，我会说这是中情局的一次行动，中亚雇佣兵伪装成圣战者实施了这次大屠杀，然后一个据说是 ISIS 通用的互联网消息来源会对此负责。中情局的目的似乎是要将俄罗斯的注意力从乌克兰转移到中亚。
这一战略将产生灾难性的反效果。
俄罗斯当局似乎已经在构建我所描述的确切案例，而这很可能就是他们向俄罗斯国内受众报道的方式。当然，并不是每个俄罗斯人都会买账，但我认为有足够多的俄罗斯人会买账，这将成为新的俄罗斯志愿者参与乌克兰战争的集结点，并为加强战争努力提供进一步的理由。

SInce the start of this war, Russian media has framed this war as a “brother war”, an unfortunate but necessary fratricide to rid Ukraine of Western influence. The Russian people, even two years into the war and with hundreds of thousands of casualties, still do not harbor bad blood against the Ukrainians as a people. At worst they loathe the Kiev regime as traitors to eastern Slavdom.
If Russian media does go ahead and place the blame for this attack on the heads of Ukraine and the CIA, then the “brother war” narrative will evolve into something far darker. Putin has already declared the Kiev regime to be controlled by Neo-Nazis, so this would expand that characterization to the rest of Ukraine. The average Russian soldier’s view of his Ukrainian counterpart will also shift quite dramatically.
On Mar 22, 2024, Dimitry Peskov announced the Russia was officially at war. This is not merely a rhetorical device. It opens the way for a formal declaration of war against Ukraine, such a declaration would have enormous ramifications, and give Putin far reaching powers of mobilization, industrial nationalization, and troop deployment (Russian conscrlpts would then be legally allowed to enter the war on Ukrainian soil).

自战争开始以来，俄罗斯媒体就将这场战争描绘成一场 "兄弟战争"，一场为使乌克兰摆脱西方影响而进行的不幸但必要的自相残杀。即使战争已经打了两年，伤亡人数已达数十万，俄罗斯人民仍然没有对乌克兰人民怀有恶意。最坏的情况是，他们厌恶基辅政权，将其视为东斯拉夫民族的叛徒。
如果俄罗斯媒体继续将此次袭击的责任归咎于乌克兰首脑和中情局，那么 "兄弟战争 "的说法就会变得更加黑暗。普京已经宣布基辅政权是由新纳粹控制的，因此这将把这种定性扩大到乌克兰其他地区。普通俄罗斯士兵对乌克兰士兵的看法也将发生巨大变化。
2024 年 3 月 22 日，季米特里-佩斯科夫宣布俄罗斯正式开战。这不仅仅是一种修辞手法。它为正式向乌克兰宣战开辟了道路，这样的宣战将产生巨大的影响，并赋予普京在动员、工业国有化和部队部署方面深远的权力（届时俄罗斯应征士兵将被合法允许在乌克兰领土上参战）。

Boris Ivanov Lives in Moscow
Probably nothing. It’s not the first major terrorist attack in the history of Russia or Moscow. If anything, it’s proof that we are dealing with absolutely ruthless enemies, and that now is not the time to weaken ourselves with internal strife. President Bush got the second term after 9/11, why should Putin do worse?

【回答】住在莫斯科
可能不会有什么。这不是俄罗斯或莫斯科历史上第一次重大恐怖袭击。如果有什么不同的话，就是它证明了我们面对的是绝对冷酷无情的敌人，现在不是内讧削弱自己的时候了。布什总统在 9/11 事件后连任，为什么认为普京会做得更糟？

Bill Chen Geopolitics observer
The Russians are a stoic people. There was a live stream of the theater surroundings in the aftermath of the attack. It showed emergency personnel going about their business, without panic or chaos, despite the massive casualty, and the surreal nature of the event.
I repeat. There was no panic, no fear, just calm professionalism to put out the fire, render first aid, establish perimeter security, and of course, sweep the building and make arrests.
Burning the roof sends a clear message that this was a made-for-tv special to embarrass the Kremlin.
If this was the work of religious fanatics, they would have tried to maximize the taking of life, rather that stage instagram-worthy capture. But they evidently had world-class training in small unit action, and had intimate knowledge of the target and its surroundings. The competency goes way beyond Mumbai in 2008 and Kunming in 2014. Deep pockets and networks.
The Russians have significant state security resources. They will get to the bottom of this and hold those responsible accountable.
There will be hell to pay.

【回答】地缘政治观察员
俄罗斯人是一个坚忍的民族。袭击发生后，剧院周围出现了现场直播。直播显示，尽管伤亡惨重，事件具有超现实的性质，但应急人员仍各司其职，没有恐慌或混乱。
我再说一遍。没有恐慌，没有害怕，只有冷静的专业救火、急救、建立周边安全，当然还有清查大楼和实施逮捕。
焚烧屋顶传递了一个明确的信息，那就是这是为了让克里姆林宫难堪而制作的电视特辑。
如果这是宗教狂热分子所为，他们就会尽量多地夺取生命，而不是上演适合在Instagram上炫耀的场面。但很明显，他们接受了世界级的小队行动训练，并且对目标及其周围环境有着深入的了解。这种能力远超过2008年孟买和2014年昆明事件。他们有雄厚的资金和网络。
俄罗斯拥有大量的国家安全资源。他们将查个水落石出，追究相关责任人。
会有惨重代价的。

Larry Nutter
It is entirely likely the Islamic State attacked the concert hall because of Russian imperialism in a Muslim country. No matter what, terrorism is 100% wrong. America contacted Russia prior to the attack and warned them of the pending attack. Apparently our intelligence network knew there was going to be an attack on a large event. We told Russia to not have big events.
The only effect of a mass terrorism event is the people will be to gather around their government and become more patriotic and supportive. Look back to 9/11 and you will see what will happen to Putin and his regime. America supported our country 100%. There were American flags hanging in everyone’s front yards. The same will be true with the Moscow terrorism event. The same will be true for Putin.

【回答】
伊斯兰国之所以袭击音乐厅，完全有可能是因为俄罗斯帝国主义在一个穆斯林国家的所作所为。无论如何，恐怖主义都是百分之百错误的。美国在袭击前联系了俄罗斯，警告他们即将发生袭击。显然，我们的情报网络知道会有大型活动遭到袭击。我们告诉俄罗斯不要举行大型活动。
大规模恐怖事件的唯一影响就是人民会聚集在政府周围，变得更加爱国和支持政府。回顾一下 911 事件，你就会知道普京及其政权会怎么样。美国人百分之百支持我们自己的国家。每个家庭的前院都挂着美国国旗。莫斯科恐怖主义事件也将如此。普京也将如此。

Ivan Priaulx
Impossible to know exactly what impact such an event will have on Putin.! For example he was not responsible for such an attack. Attacks happen in so many other parts of the World. Paris for example a few years ago around Christmas time.! Atomic Bomb attacks in Hiroshima and Nagasaki many more killed and maimed for life there. Life goes on as it always does.!

【回答】
不可能确切知道这样的事件会对普京产生什么影响！举例来说，他并不对这样的袭击负责。恐怖袭击发生在世界许多其他地方。比如几年前圣诞节前后的巴黎！广岛和长崎的原子弹袭击造成更多的人死亡和致残。生活还是要照常进行。

Ilya Hinzburh Lives in Minsk, Belarus (1971–present)
The same that happened to the 9/11 attack. NOTHING. How can any leader be responsible for the political terrorism?
I guess this will only increase the number of volunteers into Russian army. To crush the source of this terrorism: the Ukrainain puppet regime.

【回答】现居白俄罗斯明斯克（1971年-至今）
9/11袭击事件也是如此。没怎么样。怎么会有领导人要为政治恐怖主义负责呢？
我猜这只会增加俄罗斯军队的志愿兵人数。粉碎恐怖主义的源头：乌克兰傀儡政权。