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文章原始标题: No Evidence That China Can Make Advanced Chips 'at Scale,' US Says


Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said she was "upset" when China's Huawei released a new phone with an advanced chip during her visit to the country last month but noted that the US has no evidence China can make those components "at scale." From a report:
"We are trying to use every single tool at our disposal to deny the Chinese the ability to advance their technology in ways that can hurt us," Raimondo testified at a congressional hearing Tuesday. The Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security this month opened an investigation into Huawei's phone and the "purported" 7-nanometer chip, made by China's Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp, which was discovered in a teardown of the handset that TechInsights conducted for Bloomberg News. It is unclear whether SMIC has approval from Commerce to supply Huawei, which has been blacklisted by the US. Raimondo said she won't comment on any active investigations, but that the Commerce Department will investigate every time it appears a company may have violated US export controls.


Let the americans believe stuff...


There's also no evidence the USA can make advanced chips at scale (by themselves).


jacks smirking reven
Fair but the USA also doesn't have a knowledge or partnership problem. TSMC and others are more than happy to build fabs here, there are no meaningful restrictions on the USA , chip designers like Apple, Intel, AMD, Qualcomm, NVidia are all USA based and important suppliers like ASML are free to sell to companies in the USA. Given a lack of restrictions I would safely imagine China would also have no real issues either but in the case of USA the only things that would stop chipmaking at scale is political will and having enough properly trained workers.

有道理,但美国也没有知识或合作关系问题。 台积电和其他公司非常乐意在这里建设晶圆厂,对美国没有任何有意义的限制,苹果、英特尔、AMD、高通、英伟达等芯片设计公司都在美国,ASML 等重要供应商可以自由地向美国公司销售产品。考虑到缺乏限制,我可以肯定地说,中国也不会有什么真正问题,但就美国而言,阻止大规模芯片制造的唯一因素就是政治意愿和是否有足够的熟练工人。

It should be noted that the US is a latecomer to the game of placing restrictions and embargoes on Chinese chip making. Taiwan has been wary of China for decades already and has long had many rules about what TSMC and other Taiwanese companies can and cannot do in China in an attempt to keep leading edge technology away from China. Unfortunately for Taiwan and TSMC, rules about bribery and enticement are easier to legislate than to enforce. China doesn't have a lot of friends, but it has a lot of money, and while money can't buy friends, money can buy key people that is life altering.


add to that China's education system is far from being the worst in the world, they sprout hundred of thousands of high level engineers every year...


The PRC has no shortage of friends, actually.


Technically the US can make advanced chips and at massive scale, but we don't have a way to package them. We put them on a boat and ship them to Taiwan to be packaged.I feel like China maybe isn't capable of manufacturing these chips in 2023. But I think 18 months or less is all it would take if they are serious about acquiring the capability. Perhaps less if a convenient opportunity to invade Taiwan presents itself.


Technically an unpackaged chip does not function in any useful manner and so for all intents and purposes is not yet anything because it's not finished.


Anonymous Coward
Uh, no. Technically, an unpackaged chip is potentially fully functional, it's just really hard to solder. But not impossible. Look at all the electronics with a black epoxy blob instead of discrete chips... Those are generally unpackaged chips that have been directly soldered down and then sealed with the epoxy blob.Unpackaged chips might also mean they're untested. If you do go about soldering one of these down, a good portion of them might not work just because of fabrication errors.

呃,并不是。从技术上讲,未封装的芯片功能可能是齐全的,只是焊接起来非常困难。但并非不可能。看看那些使用黑色环氧树脂块而非离散芯片的电子产品... 一般来说,那些是直接焊接并用环氧树脂密封的未封装芯片。未封装的芯片也可能意味着它们没有经过测试。如果你真的要焊接这些芯片,其中很大一部分可能会因为制造错误而无法工作。

Then you would think wrong. With current technology, it requires using EUV machines which only one company in the world makes, ASML. Before sanctions, China secured two machines. It remains to be seen the existing working condition of those machines with no assistance or parts from ASML. TSMC has dozens of ASML EUV machines per node by comparison. Acquiring enough EUV without sanctions would have been difficult as there is a long waiting list.China has touted that they can use exiting and older DUV technology to make chips; however, those were for comparatively simpler chips. Adapting DUV to make 3nm and smaller would require years of R&D at a minimum. 18 months for research and implementation of research is not likely.

那你就错了。就目前的技术而言,需要使用 EUV 机器,而全世界只有 ASML 一家公司生产这种机器。在制裁之前,中国获得了两台这种机器。在没有 ASML 的协助或零件的情况下,这些机器目前的工作状况如何还有待观察。相比之下,台积电每个节点拥有数十台 ASML EUV 机器。由于等待的名单很长,在没有制裁的情况下获得足够的EUV都很困难了。
中国曾吹嘘说,他们可以利用现有的老式 DUV 技术制造芯片;然而,那些都是相对简单的芯片。将 DUV 改造成 3 纳米或更精细的工艺至少需要数年的研发时间。18 个月的研究和实施研究是不可能的。

Only true if you consider cost as a limiting factor.
If money is no object, the answer is a definite yes, they can.


What else can Raimondo say? "The sanctions placed on my watch were completely useless and now had the opposite effect"? Or "That was my most shameful moment in my life, we lost"? Not unless she did not mind losing her job.I think the projected sales of the new Huawei Mate60 is something like 30-40 million in the first year. If a few dozen million chips a year is still not "at scale", I am not sure where in the world can produce chips "at scale".

雷蒙多还能说什么呢?“在我眼皮底下实施的制裁毫无用处,现在却产生了反效果”? 或者“那是我一生中最耻辱的时刻,我们输了”? 除非她不介意丢掉工作。
我认为新款华为 Mate60 的预计销量是第一年 3000 万到 4000 万左右,如果一年生产几千万片芯片还不算“规模化”,那我就不知道世界上还有哪里能“规模化”生产芯片了。

as it buried its head back in the sand.


All the ostriches I've run into have all glared at me with a "step out of line and I'll kill you" look, even the supposedly tame ones. I can only imagine that the idea they were timid came from someone that's never seen one up close.


...that would be how anyone can possibly contain in their brain the notion "We are trying to use every single tool at our disposal to deny the Chinese the ability to advance their technology" and at the same time retain the ability to be surprised (outraged?) when the other party has the exact same attitude.
I used to think this is just complete lack of self-awareness, egotism, or something along those lines. But now I am starting to think it is mental illness to be this oblivious.Like, are Americans actually lacking an essential part of the normal psyche which would allow for a coherent perception of how humans operate?


Many north-americans have been raised to believe that they "own the world", that they "are the best and smartest on the planet", etc and etc. And then they become enraged when the real world shows them that they are not all that they think they are.


I'm not sure why this got marked troll. It's 100% true. I was raised during one of those generations where we were told, constantly, that America is best at everything, always, and nobody could ever compete with us. If you still believe that rah-rah bullshit by the time you got to high school you were never very inquisitive to begin with. And I graduated right before the Internet became a common thing. It was still impossible to ignore how utterly ludicrous the idea was if you studied any aspect of history, any aspect of where the rest of the world was at the time, or investigated, even a tiny little bit, the claims of our superiority.The only people that still believe America is bestest of the bestest at everything and absolutely owns the world are either completely disconnected from reality, or extremely misinformed.Anybody thinking me noticing we aren't the superior country in the world means I hate America? Piss off. I wish we were. I'd work to make it happen if I had any idea how to fight against the status-quoers who seem convinced that where we are is the best we can be.


there has always been a small but dedicated portion of /. users that moderates any inconvenient truth as "troll". it's a knee jerk reaction much in line with precisely the sub-topic in discussion, as they are a hilarious but grim metaphor of the us elite reacting to a changing world.


I've often heard America described as the only country in the history of the world that went right from barbarism to decadence with no attempt at civilization in between. Having lived through some of the transitory period, I'd say that's pretty apt.


Unfortunately, the majority of Americans are in the above category.


What's truly unfortunate is the number of folks who seem to do it as a deliberate choice, rather than out of ignorance. Fantasy is so much more fun than reality.


Americans are the most propagandized people in the world. It's quite amazing the things that they can be made to believe, but that's the magic of the advertising industry I suppose.I remember when I was in college in the '90s that China wanted to update it's ancient creaking telecom system, there was extensive discussion in the industry whether they could raise the $4 billion in foreign exchange to accomplish it. My how things change . . .

我记得 90 年代我还在上大学的那时候,中国想要更新其陈旧摇摇欲坠的电信系统,当时业内广泛讨论他们是否能够筹集到 40 亿美元的外汇来完成这一目标。世事无常啊...

jacks smirking reven
Like it or lump it but the USA has a definite preference for nations that are both liberal democracies and generally participating in the global trade marketplace of capitalism. If China doesn't do things such as continually threating Taiwan, getting into island land disputes with other regional nations, going through with their early takeover of Hong Kong is such public fashion, provoking the US and other navies in the South China Sea and engaging in years of looking the other way regarding the stealing of American company IP the outlook is much different for China today I imagine.
If you don't think this is the case consider the fact that in a hypothetical shooting war between the US and China almost every nation in China's own geographic region is going to side with the US. China isn't making friends with their actions, if anything wariness of them just led Korea and Japan to put aside differences, one step closer to forming a Pacific version of NATO because everyone over there is afraid of China.


Like it or lump it but the USA has a definite preference for nations that are both liberal democracies and generally participating in the global trade marketplace of capitalism.The latter certainly. The former, not really. The US counts as close allies some of the most repressive authoritarian regimes still existing in the world. They've also been responsible for installing a number of distinctly illiberal non-democracies.


China is not threatening Taiwan. The PRC is threatening the ROC, which is due to the unresolved civil war.Just because the PRC represents China at the UN does not mean China has shrunk and doesn't include Taiwan. When the ROC represented all of China at the UN, it included Taiwan.


As a matter of practicality how does China acquire technology like EUV that is so difficult that only one company in the world makes. The Dutch company, ASML, is the only company that makes EUV machines. The Americans fell behind on the lithography race decades ago. And the Japanese conceded their lead to ASML.

从实际情况来看,中国如何获得像 EUV 这样的高难度技术?荷兰的 ASML 公司是唯一一家生产 EUV 光刻机的企业。几十年前,美国人就在光刻技术的竞争中落后了。日本人将他们的领先地位让给了 ASML。

You can also get unlicensed ARM and MIPS in China. RISC-V is potentially an attractive architecture when it comes to licensing. But that architecture is not going to be displacing anything "advanced" any time soon.

在中国也可以买到未授权的 ARM 和 MIPS。在授权方面,RISC-V 有可能是一种很有吸引力的架构。但这种架构不会很快取代任何“先进”架构。

I suspect like many of China's other "home grown" high tech industries they are highly dependent on importing huge parts of it in from the west. The C919 airliner is largely using US and European components (I.E. Honeywell, Thales, GE/Safran/RR for engines) and assembled in China, their high speed trains are European and imported in CKD (Complete Knock Down) kit.
The idea that China is going to overtake the west is as ludicrous as the notion that the US is the bestest at everything.
Russia has tried for years to copy western tech, they probably wouldn't have had their jet age for years later if the UK didn't sell them the RR Nene engines in the 40s. They didn't even have a high bypass turbofan (as in first seen on the 747) until the mid 80's after several attempts to buy them from the US. Copying tech is a very different beast to developing it.

俄罗斯多年来一直试图复制西方技术,如果不是英国在40年代卖给他们 RR Nene 发动机,他们可能多年后才会迎来喷气式飞机的时代。直到80年代中期,在多次尝试从美国购买之后,他们才拥有了高旁通涡扇发动机(首次出现在 747 上)。复制技术与开发技术是完全不同的。

Keep telling yourself that. Meanwhile, here's Huawei's self driving car coping well with chaotic Chinese traffic and blocked intersections: https://youtu.be/yGfpi7TOZ78 [youtu.be]I'm sure it was all stolen from Waymo/Tesla, despite somehow being better than their tech. Note that it's not just the self driving software, they have low cost, high performance LIDAR that they developed too.


Why Huawei's 7nm Chip Isn't a Big Chinese Breakthrough [youtube.com]. I found his analysis to be informative.


Anonymous Coward
You'll have better success guessing a coin-flip than Peter Zeihan has with his analysis on China.

比起彼得•泽汉(Peter Zeihan)对中国的分析,你猜硬币正反面的成功率会更高。

but why listen to the Commerce Secretary? There are industry sources that are better-able to comment on the situation than her.


But she's the official spokescritter for the US government, she could never be wrong, could she? /sarcasm


Never underestimate China's ability to steal technology from US firms!


Yeah, they're stealing technology so fast that Huawei somehow was able to implement 5G networks first in the world.


easy, first you steal the schematics for the time machine, then you just download everything else from the future.


Your meme is a bit outdated. China graduated more engineers and scientists last year than the rest of the world combined, and they also filed more patents than any other country. The days when China copied foreign firms are rapidly passing, the US is soon going to be copying Chinese designs.


Or we'll continue to buy them as we've been doing for some time. We'll only have to smuggle them in and copy them when they stop selling to the US


Hmm, I'm not sure that is true. It's hard to find consistent numbers, but India also produces a large number of college graduates each year. China and India each produce more college graduates each year than the US. However, it's not clear how well China and India are able to utilize those graduates and how much those graduates contribute toward each country's economy and scientific advancement. China has been having great challenges finding employment for its most recent graduates, and India's economy is still ramping up. There's still a reason that hundreds of thousands of Chinese and Indian students go to US universities and not the other way around.

嗯... 我不确定这是真的。很难找到一致的数字,但印度每年也培养出大量的大学毕业生。中国和印度每年培养的大学毕业生人数都比美国多。然而,中国和印度对这些毕业生的利用率如何,以及这些毕业生对两国经济和科学进步的贡献有多大,目前还不清楚。中国在为应届毕业生就业方面一直面临巨大挑战,而印度的经济仍在不断增长。成千上万的中国和印度学生进入美国大学学习,而不是反过来,这仍然是有原因的。

the main issue is that the US population is pretty badly educated, and half of them can't read something somewhat complicated


Never underestimate US companies abilities to steal from Chinese companies. Don't act as if the US is any better. They even need to put sanctions in place because they are getting behind, and reality is, most of the chips designed aren't even designed by americans, but asians and europeans working for US companies.


The west in general and the USA in particular has a big hang up when it comes to copying. I guess it's something to do with the patent system which is almost totally broken and/or dysfunctional. As the prophet Musk puts it, patents are for losers ie those who are slow and/or lazy.
Copying is the best way to advance technology and developing countries have been doing that pretty much without any penalty for a long time, including the USA. In fact, the things the USA treasures most were invented in China, or at least are derived from - guns (gun powder) and money (paper money) to name just two.


Of me being right. Trade wars don't contain whole economies, they inspire them to go around any barriers we try to erect. And with bad blood to boot. Governments never learn. This 'containment' of tech via sanctions is the silliest stupidest idea governments have tried since plowing crops under ground in order to 'stimulate' the economy.


"One thing that we learn from history is that our leaders rarely learn anything from history." - historian Barbara Tuchman in 'The March of Folly'


Now that is a great quote. Hope someone upmods you.


the government is just a tool for a bunch of hyper rich motherfuckers that run this planet. once you realize that simple fact, a lot of really weird stuff suddenly makes a lot of sense. it's a miracle we aren't extinct already. or a curse, not sure.


How is 7nm Chinese chip is going to hurt USA? But 10nm will not?


It hurts our feelings.


The USA in particular has a very bad habit of claiming entitlement to what does not yet exist.
The future.
Always struck me as an odd concept to claim entitlement in reference to something non-existent.


You might want to buy a phone with a 7 nm chip in it, but you'd probably choose a competitor over one with a 10 nm chip.


Considering Apple's newest phone uses 3nm A17 chips and their last 7nm phone CPU (A13) was 4 years ago, it is not likely people can will get new Apple phones with 7nm much less 10nm chips (iPhone 8's A11). On the Android side, Samsung last flagship that used a 10nm chip was the Galaxy S9 (2018) and the last 7nm phone was the Samsung Galaxy S20 (released 2020). People can buy phones with 7nm chips but the CPUs are getting very old and 10nm chips are ancient in CPU age.

考虑到苹果最新手机使用的是3纳米的A17芯片,而上一款7纳米CPU(A13)的手机已经是4年前的产品了,人们不太可能买到使用7纳米芯片的苹果新手机,更不用说10纳米芯片(A11)的iPhone 8了。在安卓系统方面,三星上一款使用10纳米芯片的旗舰机是 Galaxy S9(2018 年),上一款7纳米芯片的手机是三星 Galaxy S20(2020 年发布)。人们可以买到7纳米芯片的手机,但CPU已经非常过时了,而10纳米芯片在CPU时代已经作古了。

Most people don't buy flagship phones. The market for the non-bleeding edge is pretty big, and pretty lucrative for a rising country like China.Yes, the US seems to be determined to deny China not only the high end market but also the middle. Or maybe they just want everyone to have no choice but to use American or Korean phones. For reasons.


Please show me which phones are using 4-5 year old processors. Even Apple has upgraded their entire line such that the oldest CPU is the A15 which is 2 years old. As for non-bleeding edge in China, you are aware that sanctions would prevent most phone CPUs from entering the country even 7nm and 10nm right?


Lol. I'm not going to go and look up CPU processes by phone to find you examples. Google "Samsung S20" (one of your examples) and you'll find lots for sale.

哈哈。我不打算通过手机查找CPU工艺来给你例子。谷歌搜索“Samsung S20”(你的例子之一),你会找到很多手机在出售。

I still do remember the report few years back that showed how several microchip server boards have been modified in such a way rely information to China. As far as I know, it was all fantasy at the time and nobody else confirmed that claim yet. It is hard to build trust once you lost it.


That was a 2018 Bloomberg report claiming inner layer buried spy chips in Super Micro motherboards. No evidence was given, only claims and hearsay.


Seems about right. I'm sure China is doing some of this stuff, but they seem to be much better at it since the evidence usually amounts to "secret intelligence assessment says." On the other hand, the US and American companies get caught red handed over and over.


The Evil Atheist
Concerns about human rights, industrial espionage, etc are just a sideshow. The REAL goal is simply to keep Chinese people down.
Let that be a warning to India, and upstart African countries. The US will intentionally cripple you if you dare try to improve to unacceptably high living standards.


I have noticed all White majority nations are very jealous when a non-White majority nation excels. Before Plaza Accords against Japan, and the stealing of intellectual property from Japan, USA hated Japan too. And now that Japan has bent its knee once again, Americans love Japan.


The Evil Atheist
Also when non-white minorities in their own countries excel.
In the US, there were the Tulsa riots, where lazy whites were jealous of the success of the nearby black neighbourhood, so they destroyed their neighbourhood.
In Australia, there were the Lambing Flats riots where lazy whites were angry that Chinese miners worked a bit harder, and had success finding gold in the mines that lazy whites left behind. Then Australia instituted the White Australia Policy, to safeguard white laziness.
For all the talk of "neo-colonialism", it is still the West engaging in it, jealous when non-white peoples find success, so they outright cripple them.


The Evil Atheist
Some butthurt moron downvoting us for stating the facts.


Considering the US is more than happy to keep supporting Taiwan (an island full of Chinese), I would say your grasp of "facts" is suspect to reality.


The Evil Atheist
If you think the support of Taiwan is out of the goodness of their hearts, then YOUR grasp of facts is non-existent.


She is an idiot. Or at least a liar.